notin
-
Posts
51,945 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
44
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by notin
-
Nope. I have nothing except alternative theories that counter the popular but equally unsupported beliefs of others. You know, keep an open mind kind of stuff. My entire stance on this has always been that none of us has the whole story and really, until we do (if ever), any discussion really needs to acknowledge other interpretations. But a lot of people do seem close-minded to the existence of alternative possibilities....
-
Exactly. I made that same point somewhere on another thread....
-
Eh. Given Dombrowski’s draft history, is dropping 10 spots really a deterrent? At some point the spending will get cut off. Maybe it is this off-season. But maybe not...
-
We have a GM who likes trading, no farm system to trade from, and the possibility of multiple needs. There are certainly reasons to keep ERod, but I do doubt he is untouchable and could be dealt for the right price...
-
The idea of trading one player to replace him with a more expensive free agent? I wouldn’t be surprised if DD traded Bogaerts and signed Machado. If he did try to deal for Machado last off-season, presumably there was also a plan to extend him. This move doesn’t appear that it would be very popular with a lot of Sox fans, and maybe, like a lot of people, DD has soured on Machado since then. Or maybe not...
-
Reggie Williams. What sport hasn’t had a Reggie Williams?
-
While we wax on this postseason season to date, I think special mention needs to go to handing the Yankees their worst loss in postseason history and doing so on their field in front of their fans. That in itself makes this postseason enjoyable...
-
Unless DD trades ERod...
-
Well my point was two parts - that the players weren’t and the fans are the ones who still are...
-
And really, even though the money was a lot less, Dombrowski did trade Shaw and sign the more expensive Moreland...
-
It doesn’t? This is a GM who lost a Victor Martinez for the season and replaced him by giving Prince Fielder one of the biggest contracts in history. And at a time when interest in Fielder was minimal, to be kind. Also with one year left and an agent named Boras, this might be viewed as the ideal time to move breakout player Bogaerts. I’m not a proponent of this strategy, but it’s not unrealistic. After all, DD reportedly tried to trade Bogaerts for the more expensive Machado last off-season...
-
Fan interference - why doesn't MLB do something to prevent it?
notin replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Baseball
Some of that was for fan safety with those dangerous maple bats... -
But if only the fans are upset, that agrees with my point. I think none of us have the entire story...
-
I’m not so sure, and a few people posted links about how overblown that whole situation was...
-
Well there is a certain wildly unpopular free agent shortstop that Dombrowski has reportedly tried to acquire before...
-
I expect at least one of Dalbec or Chavis to be in MLB next year. But not in Boston...
-
4 years for a pitcher whose had TJ TWICE????!?!?! Ignoring health and basing a contract on postseason numbers sounds like the exact logic that justified signing Pablo Sandoval...
-
Hasn’t that been covered to death by the media as something fans seem to be overreacting to way more than the players are?
-
The Sox do have a lot of those players for 2019 already. As Dombrowski is a big time trader and really, has not much in the farm to deal, who will he put on the market? I think, besides one or both of Chavis and Dalbec, the Sox might entertain deals for Rodriguez and Swihart. A third possibility is Bogaerts, but interest might be lessened once the Cubs make Addison Russell available at a discount...
-
Game 2 of the World Series is October 24. He should have 5 days rest by then. So yes he does...
-
And there is precedent for not making a pitcher with injury issues a closer. The Cubs tried to go that route with Brandon Morrow this season. And this year, the Cubs might be the biggest suitors for Kimbrel, even if/when they sign Machado or Harper...
-
Or Benintendi and Mookie with the gloves. Let's no ignore that aspect of player contributions...
-
But that wasn't the question. The question was "Is he closer to Rivera than he is to Papelbon"? At age 30, Kimbrel has been worth 19.1 fWAR At age 30, Rivera was worth about 12 fWAR. But he also only had 4 seasons as a closer under his belt and fWAR numbers from the 1990's might be incomplete. Through his first 9 seasons (same number as Kimbrel )as a closer, Rivera was worth 17 fWAR. At age 30, Papelbon was worth 14.2 fWAR by age 30 and 18.8 fWAR through 9 seasons as a closer. To me, Kimbrel looks a lot like Papelbon 2.0, and as the future is unknown, using a close parallel is one way to try to evaluate it. (It's actually the basis of the entire PECOTA projection system.)
-
And that brings another possibility. Is Kimbrel closer to being Rivera than he is to bring Papelbon? It certainly is much easier to be the next Papelbon, which is why I lean that way. Kimbrel’s entire second half this year was subpar for him. Was this just a blip? Or is it the start of a decline? It might cost $100mill or more to find out. That’s a lofty price tag even if it’s just a blip...
-
Kimbrel might have a Cooperstown career ahead of him, but hopefully the decision to resign him and then hope he does isn’t going to be made based on his World Series performance. But he is a name player; he will get the contract he wants. And he very well might set records. Right now he looks like Papelbon 2.0. Papelbon went out after a great World Series for Boston in his age 30 season (same as Kimbrel right now) and also wanted to be the highest paid closer ever. The Sox passed. Now, we’re the Sox right or wrong to pass on Papelbon?
