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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. They mean different things. “Unlikely” means “not likely to happen,” and relates to probability of an occurrence being low. But “unforeseeable” means “cannot have been predicted.” The latter does not take probability into account at all like the former does...
  2. While true, there re two other factors. 1) Bad attitude or not, the White sox chose to move Sale. He wasn't the first malcontent in team history, and won't be the last. 2) The White Sox still chose the Red Sox package for Sale. They weren't the only team in on him...
  3. It is entirely possible the story and rumors about the Sox resetting are overblown, and i's exactly like Kennedy said - a goal but not a mandate. Especally when you consider the luxury tax payments the Sox are trying to avoid are typically about $10-15 mill,or less than the Sox spent on Pablo Sandoval last year. If paying that extra $10-15mill allows Henry to earn, say, an extra $20-25 mill, certainly no reason he would want to avoid it, right? I certainly think he'd like to earn more without paying it, but that isn't the same as insisting on resetting. Unless his real issue is with the draft pick penalties and their long term impact on the club...
  4. Very possible. If taxes are a factor, he is not coming to Illinois...
  5. And while we might have seen an unlikely worst case scenario, I still wouldn't say the whole situation was unforseeable. The Sox extended one pitcher coming off an injury, and signed a long term deal to another very injury prone pitcher. All this two years after giving one of the biggest pitching contracts in MLB history out to another pitcher who had been having injury problems.
  6. If that suits you, that's fine. But while JH might have approved the deals, he didn't write them and execute them. I mean, by that logic, shouldn't Cherington be exonerated for Sandoval, Ramirez and Castillo?
  7. What would be a good record?
  8. Well, if we trade Mookie this offseason, it will be be because of the contracts left behind by Dombrowski, specifically the contracts of Price, Sale and Eovaldi. If they do not trade him and he leaves via free agency, it will be because the Sox did not make the best offer (or made no offer). But the Sox offer might be limited by a budget that includes those same 3 deals. Especially if they are still paying luxury tax against Henry's wishes. While Mookie might want a change of scenery, nothing about him so far says he would reject a better Boston offer just to change teams...
  9. I guess it was 4. And in those 4 years, he drafted 21 pitchers who reached the majors...
  10. He was GM for 3 years and drafted 3 MLB starting pitchers (if you count Beeks as a starter). How often do you think other GMs draft MLB starting pitchers? He was not great at it, but he was not pathetic. The only reason it did not work out for Boston is Dombrowski traded away all three SPs before they reached the majors. Are you actually holding that against him? You want to argue someone got a betetr pitcher later than Kopech? Itr's worth pointint out, another GM thought enough of Kopech to deal Chris Sale for him. Look at it this way. No Kopech? No Sale. No Allen? No Kimbrel. No Beeks? No Eovaldi. Also, likely no 2018 title. He drafted good pitching and has that in his track record. His big problem was he refused to trade any of it away. He was a prospect hoarder. Other than saying "well he didn't draft this guy" that numerous other MLB GMs also passed on, do you have anything to support your claim?
  11. Starling Marte should probably contact his realtor...
  12. Cherngton also took Logan Allen with the 231st overall pick (8th round) of the 2015 draft. Five picks later, the Padres selected Chris Paddack. Apparently he has no idea how to draft pitchers. (sarcasm)
  13. 25 teams passed on Mike Trout, including the Angels once. Does this mean none of them know how to scout players? Saying he doesn't know pitching because he passed on a high school pitcher who worked out better is pretty weak evidence. Especially since Kopech might work out better in the long run. There was a time when Kason Gabbard looked like he was going to work out better than Jon Lester, too. But those are the kind of evaluations one makes when they're made too early...
  14. I'm sure he can figure it out. The past two seasons the Red Sox had a 1B they liked, which was probably a big factor in why JD didn't play there. This offseason, maybe the want to see who will be at 1B before moving Martinez there.
  15. Yes it could very easily be painful. But this is the price for Dombrowski's actions. DD did win a title, but he left behind a very expensive team that has a few missing pieces and no minimum wage replacements. We all enjoyed winning in 2018, but losing Betts this offseason could easily be part of that price of that title...
  16. Well he did play 1b. But later on he also wound up training velociraptors in a Cretaceous-themed zoo. So maybe his career path is best not duplicated...
  17. Except Henry. The only one matters...
  18. Well, if the Sox pitchers never got hurt, trading Mookie might still be on the table, as the team would still be extremely expensive. But more important, let’s not pretend these injuries were not foreseeable. Sale ended 2018 having problems. Price has been off and on with injuries for the previous 2 seasons. And Eovaldi is always hurt. Sure, maybe 2018 was just a stroke of bad luck where the 3 combined for less than 60 starts. Or maybe this is what they are going forward. Trading Mookie may or may not work out. But if you don’t, and you go for it in 2020, then you delay reset for a year and lose Mookie forever. If the Sox trade Mookie and reset, there is at least a chance at bringing him back. Of course, trading Price does the same thing. But it’s a lot less likely to happen, and still might be more costly...
  19. I’m not blaming Betts for this season. I’m saying fans would rather have a winning team over star players. The stars were more important when the team wasn’t as good, because they gave us something to root for once we knew another year went by without a title.
  20. All stuff Betts is not immune to. The fact is Nomar was King for a long time. That he had a very quick and overblown fall from grace just shows how temporary those titles can be. Sox fans like stars, because when this team sucked, we still rooted for Boggs to win a batting title or Clemens to win the ERA title or strikeout title. But that was then, when we didn’t see an end to a drought that started during World War I. Now we’ve seen rings and flown flags and had multiple parades. Think about - the Sox longest title drought is 86 years. The second longest - nine years, and that one ended in 1912. The longest title drought since 2000 - 6 years (2007-2013). Not only does this team take titles, it takes them without making everyone wait. And THAT is the new norm for Red Sox fans...
  21. I know. I’ve already done all the research. Make some calls, Chaim!!
  22. Nomar was one half season removed from being a 6fWAR player when he was traded. Fred Lynn was valued at 8.6 fWAR one season before being dealt. That really is Betts territory. The Lynn trade didn’t work out, largely because Sullivan made a stupid trade. (Why was Lynn traded?). It will be a tough sell if Betts gets traded. But if trading Betts is the first step to resetting and bringing him back long term, sign me up...
  23. Yes, but how should this team get more pitching or improve their pitching if: 1) they cannot afford to pay anyone without exceeding their self-imposed spending limits And 2) they have no internal minor league options to try and none to trade for established players? I know many think “don’t impose those spending limits.” And maybe they won’t, but it’s not like this team has been held back by their unwillingness to spend, and they do have the right to dial back every once in a while to minimize penalties...
  24. Tell them. They’re are two possible reasons for changes. 1) Change in (projected) salary. Expect a bunch to change as arbitration cases end. 2) Change in projected future WAR.
  25. While moving Betts could be unpopular with the casual everyday he gets his sports news from Bob Lobel (is he still working?), that doesn’t change the fact that fans want one thing more than star players - winners. When defending Dombrowski’s depletion of the farm, not one single fan said “But he got star players!!” No one ever justified the Nomar trade by saying “Orlando Cabrera is a bigger star, and most definitely not a slimy little selfish weasel about to disembark on a trail of burned bridges around MLB.” The Sox were an 84!win team last year. No one was happy. Bring back the same team, maybe an 84 win team again. They had Betts, too. This team is capable of mediocrity with him or without him. Does keeping Betts and winning 84 games next year really retain fans? Especially if they reset the taxes and can’t add anyone? And then lose Betts to free agency helps those fans how?
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