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Everything posted by notin
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Think he can maintain that for 14 seasons? Or until age 40? I mean, Cody Ross had a higher OPS and OPS+ for Boston than Dustin Pedroia, but I think we all get why...
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But even then, you’re only focusing on the Red Sox. Plenty of teams have engaged in massive free agent spending without winning anything...
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To be fair, those contracts were comparatively smaller, but so were payrolls. Jack Clark, for example, only made $5.8mill from the sox, but it was considered a big contract. And remember the financial albatross Dan Duquette acquired - Mike Lansing? Well, he only made $12.5mill for 2 years in Boston. Or roughly what the Sox paid Mitch Moreland...
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It shouldn't be too tough to find the next Jake Marisnick. The only real question is - why would you want to?
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1) Not many draft picks tie up $200 million over 7 years. 2) Most of the free agents can be lined to titles? I guess that's true if you forget about all the free agents that didn't. The Sox have been employing this strategy for a few decades, and it's only recently worked. and plenty of other teams have employed it and failed...
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And how many rings does Yoda have? You know he's voiced by Grover from Sesame Street, right?
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Not always and you know that. It is, however, the surgery that has a shelf life of about 600 innings before another one is needed...
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So... if the Sox don't think they can trade, say Eovaldi, they should just give up?
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Well, it does help. But the problem with free agency that every GM has known about forever is it involves making long term commitments for short term goals. How any free agents have signed big mega longterm six plus year deals and actually been god the entire time? It's pretty rare. I know this. You know this. Do we think GMs don't? Does anyone really think Matt Klentak just gave $118mill to Zack Wheeler expecting this oft-injured TJ-surgery repeat customer to actually pitch all 5 years like he has for the last two? Do we all think Klentak expects 12 good year from Bryce Harper? Of course he doesn't. But when he goes out and spends on these players, while he hopes to improve his team's chances, he definitely tells his fanbase "money is not an object on our end." Look at the Carl Crawford signing. Total bust. One of the worst ever. But were you or were you not excited the day the Sox signed him? Whether or not that excitement is ever justified doesn't change the fact that it did exist at one point...
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While I can agree with that, the word has come on down from on high. Get under the limit. Sure, they say it's a goal and not a mandate. But that also means trying to get under is a mandate.
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I'd call dealing off all 4 a blow up. Just get rid of one mega-contract and fill a few holes. An offense lead by Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, and Devers is a great foundation. Trade Bradley. Get a 1b/2b, CF and a couple SPs. Call it a day...
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If the Sox could trade all 4, that means they could trade Price and Eovaldi. If they can trade one of those two, stop there...
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He's an innings-eater. Pettitte never had an xFIP as high as the 4.45 Montgomery had in his 2.6 fWAR season, and never gave up 1.22 HR/9. An innings-eater is a good thing to have in the rotation, but once they start having injury problems like TJ, the ability to eat those innings gets diminished...
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That's Rule #1 in the Notin Guidebook for MLB GMs. However, no GMs read it, and for plenty of good reasons. Free agency is really more about PR than about team building anyway. It's a way to tell your fanbase "we are willing to spend money to make this team better, so you should be willing to spend money to come and see it."
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It does look like one of Betts, Martinez, Price or Eovaldi has to go. From those 4, I prefer it be either Price or Eovaldi. But Betts is clearly the most desirable for any team hoping for a title run in 2020...
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I thought it was Warren Spahn who said that...
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I kind of hope he can acquire Josh Osich a few more times...
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That simulator just tells you if a trade is fair using projected WAR and projected/guaranteed salaries for the players involved. It can't accomodate whether players are clubhouse leaders/cancers or a GMs desire to keep or deal a player. And hey, sometimes GMs make bad trades. (Actually lots of times.) Really what it does it gives you an idea if a trade is fair for both sides using the criteria previously discussed. I know a lot of people are poo-pooing it, but the old way for fans to propose trades was almost always lopsided. Go to the Yankee thread where Meh proposed the Yankees could get Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz for Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Holder and Mike Ford. That's the classic "we can get anything for one really good player and table scraps that fill holes" proposals that still fill the internet to this day (and I've made them myself). At the very least, BTV is objective and I keep kicking myself for not thinking of it first, especially since I have used a similar one on fantasyp.com for fantasy football trades...
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Actually it couldn't be done because one of the players the Orioles got was not in the simulator. But it was remarkably underwhelming with the players it did have...
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The Seattle firesale continues. Narvaez to the Brewers...
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How can you tell if Sale has lost his velocity? It's been all over the place for years. Over his career, his FB velocity has gone from 96.1 to 95.3 to 91.6 to 93.1 to 93.8 to 94.5 to 92.8 to 94.4 to 94.7 to 93.2 last year. According to Microsoft Excel, his velocity next year will be 93.4. And here is the funny part. No matter how hard Sale throws, he has Cy Young caliber seasons. Last year was the first time since 2012 that Sale did not finish in the top 6 for Cy Young. (Ironically, the two other year he didn't - 2010 and 2011 - were the two years he had the most velocity.
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You’re still looking at over a half of a century of Rule 5 picks. Granted, that list does have multiple MVPs (Bell, Hernandez) and multiple Cy Young winners (Hernandez, Dickey). But for the most part, the success rate is pretty low ...
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That's ok. I have a 2016 Volkswagen Golf. It's almost like a Porsche 911 GT3. Just a few differnence. Like for starters, it's a station wagon...
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Are they really so far apart? Eovaldi's ERA+ is 5% off of Wheeler's. Their WHIP differs by 0.08, which is 8 hits or walks per 100 IP, or about 12 per 150 IP season. They both have had very significant injury histories. Atthose prices, I take Eovaldi as the better deal...
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The 2019 Porsche 911 GT3 still has one. I take it you're more of a Ferrari guy...
