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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. No. Rafael Devers has the most value in a trade. Baseballtradevalues ranks Rodriguez fifth in trade value among Sox players, behind Devers, Bogaerts, Betts and Benintendi and just ahead of Barnes and JD Martinez. It is worth pointing out that the value for ERod is a mid-season value they have not yet updated. The values for Martinez and Devers also need updating. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/
  2. IMO the only dumb trade was the Kimbrel deal. To give up two top 100 prospects plus another for one of the highest paid closers and still taking on the full contract. And San Diego was a bad team. In no way did they want to keep the contract of a pricey closer. Not to mention, the Sox problem in 2015 was the rotation. Having a great closer and a weak rotation doesn't really do much for you. There were so many reasons to think this deal was just silly, especially at that price...
  3. Slasher would have won 3 World Series titles. THat's what he is saying. I can't definitively prove him wrong..
  4. That's really not the option you think it is. There is a set date for him to opt out. Typically these are shortly after the World Series. At that point, JD has to make a decision. If he opts out, he is a free agent. If he does not, he has no say in anything the Sox do with regards to him, and Boras has no power to stop any trades. This isn't an NTC where he can veto the trade but might approve it if some condition is met. There is nothing to negotiate. At some point in the near future, JD has a choice. Opt out and become a free agent or do not opt out and leave his fate is in the hands of whoever is running the Sox. In 2020, JD Martinez will make $23.75million. In 2021 and 2022, he will make $19.35mill each year. If he opts out now, he is walking away from $62.5mill over the next 3 years, but he will recoup $2.5mill per the OP. If he opts out next year, it;s only $38.7mill over 2 years. If he does not opt out this year, he will next year. JD will be entering his age 32 season next year. The highest paid contract for a player entering his age 32 season last year was for Michael Brantley at 2 years / $32mill. While Martinez should be able to get a higher AAV, I doubt he gets too many more years the way the market has been treating 30+ year old free agents. (AJ Pollock was one year younger than JD will be and did get a 4 year $50mill contract. But even that is less than what JD would be leaving on the table.) The ever-predictable Scott Boras will advise him to wait one more year before opting out. If JD chooses to listen is another matter. But he didn't hire Boras for the purpose of ignoring his advice...
  5. Even with the $2.5mill, he is likely to make less money than if he does not opt out.
  6. He's most definitely among the best DHs in the game. He will be a loss...
  7. I remember when he was hired, the Sox farm was headlined by Beninteni, Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza. Someone on BDC, possibly you, commented that “two of those 4 would never play for the Sox.” Whoever it was was close. And their sarcasm fell short of reality...
  8. Written guarantees of what? They’re already player options. And JD doesn’t have any no trade protection that would allow to make demands before approving a trade. All JD can do is opt out if he doesn’t want to be dealt. And he isn’t guaranteed to get 3 years $62million in this market at his age...
  9. Oh I assume Porcello is already done in Boston and Bradley is into his last 4 innings...
  10. Extending Devers this year does seem like it would counter any plans to reset, which is good news...
  11. Not to mention, a GM for any major sport franchise is in a high pressure position. It's not like fans of the Orioles are out there thinking "Hey, every game has a loser. And in most games, it's us. That's who we are."
  12. Expectations of a 5-6 year window of dominance are unrealistic. Even if you have a crystal ball that knows how to use a Ouija board...
  13. And this isn't a horrible team that needs t fire everyone from DD on down. They made one move so far. The new GM might have an idea for someone he or she likes better than Cora, but there won't be anything on that front until we get a new GM. And a GM with preservation instincts might keep Cora around in case there is a need for a scapegoat next year...
  14. While true, if this team isn’t very good in 2020 and 2021, how many people will post on this board “but 2018 made this worth it.” Because I missed those posts in 2014 and 2015. And the fact that the once facetious Fire Alex Cora thread now has people posting about taking it seriously lends further to this point...
  15. Being lucky would also help. And it depends on your definition of OK. This team isn’t 62-100 and there are plenty of fans for other teams that hope for 84 win seasons. For example, somewhere out there, there are a dozen or so Marlins’ fan who would consider an 84 win season a huge success...
  16. There is something to that. While the post-seasons those years wee not so fun, it doesn't and shouldn't take away from the enjoyment that we had from April through September. But unfortunately,the Sox are at a time when they might have to face the proverbial piper...
  17. Is that really true? When th Yankees had their last great run of cussess, they had a revolving door in that starting rotation. The 1996 Yankees were lead by pitchers like Jimmy Key, Kenny Rogers and Dwight Gooden. Then they sent them out and brought in David Wells and David Cone. Then, out with Wells and in with Clemens. Andy Pettitte was the only SP with 4 rings.
  18. Why is it ridiculous? He took a top tier farm and turned it into a bottom tier farm. The only question really is - do you think it was worth it? And while it was in 2018, there is an obvious fallout. The real problem is that fallout happened in 2019 and the repercussions are going to be felt in 2020. The Sale trade was the price of doing business. Sale was one of the best contracts in baseball, and the Sox gave up two of the bet prospects. If you're waiting for those future all stars to produce, I would guess Yoan Moncada's .916 OPS this year should qualify for something. The primary reason he won't get a Silver Slugger this year is the change from 2B to 3B. The Pomeranz trade was probably slso the cost of doing business. An All Star SP with 2 1/2 seasons of control also has a price. Kimbrel felt like an overpay on Day One. And as the Sox cannot likely afford to retain either Bradley or Porcello, having Margot and Logan Allen would be nice. And certainly better options that Mike Shawaryn and Rusney Castillo. The only real question was - was the decimation of the farm worth it. In 2018, it was. Was it in 2019? I believe the idea was to have a more substantial run of success than just the one title. And the real problem now becomes, what next? The internal solutions the Sox have to fill any gaps are not really all that enticing. Sure, they have warm bodies. But do they have future significant contributors? And no one is "happy" that Henry plans to cut spending. Not sure why so many people draw the conclusion that acknowledging the pending budget changes is the same as rooting for them. I think a bag part of that is that too many just assume the Sox are a money-making machine and therefore can and should spend unlimited amounts of cash. John Henry is spending over a quarter of a billion dollars each year for our entertainment, I am not surprised he wants to dial back, especially since other teams are now showing better or equal success while spending less. The writing was on the wall, and randomly accusing people of wanting it and assuming they meant to say they could do better because you disagree with Henry's plan doesn't change that. So as far as we know, there will be a lower payroll. Trades have to come, since free agency and cutting payroll are counter-intuitive. And the cheaper farm system players - and there will be one or two on the roster next year - should only be counted on to do so much. So the Sox have two options. 1) Rebuild the farm. I doubt they do this, as it can be a long and drawn out process taking several seasons. Or 2) make a few trades. If I had to guess, the primary trade bait will be JD Martinez (who also doubles as a salary dump to get to whatever the new payroll goal is), Matt Barnes, and Bobby Dalbec. I hope they don't trade Betts, but that is also a possibility. And I think Bradley is gone, but I doubt he has much in the way of trade value. I also hope they retain a few of the long term promising young players, like Casas, Mata, and Groome. I'm not wild about Duran, so if he gets dealt, I'll have mixed feelings. I do hope they keep as much of the farm as possible, but other teams like cheaper players when you trade with them. The biggest obstacle and worst case scenario is if they decide they have to move one of Martinez or Betts. Because Martinez will be a lot oharder to trade due to his lack of a position and his expensive, option-laden contract. And I think we all hope that if they can't move him, they just keep spending and hold on to Betts...
  19. You mean the games that hadn’t been pitched when I made that post?
  20. Not to mentin, all this talk of some sort of bad culture. 1. But how much of that was Dombrowski? He was fairly high up there and certainly influenced the culture. 2. Am I supposed to believe that in the front office of all the other teams, it's a day at the beach?
  21. I won’t miss either one...
  22. I could see trading Barnes. He’s a very good pitcher provided he didn’t pitch the day before. So unless the Sox have a very deep pen, he is a liability too often. Of course trading Barnes isn’t a cap-clearing move like trading JD would be. The trouble with trading JD is finding the taker. The best fit is probably an AL team that needs power and has a reasonable shot at the postseason. I’m thinking the White Sox...
  23. Adding Marco Hernandez to that list doesn’t make it more impressive. I think one of Cora’s goals next year should be “as little Travis as possible.” And while Devers is looking a lot better at 3b - even since his error-prone April/May, I wouldn’t mind seeing 1b - Devers 2b - Chavis SS - Bogaerts 3b - Dalbec with Hernandez and Lin on the bench. And Travis if there’s room. Still need a DH though, if they trade JDM. If they’re cheap, Ockimey/Travis platoon. But I bet that combo grows old fast...
  24. If Bradley walks, some food for thought is that baseballtradevalues.com gives Marcus Walden roughy the same surplus value as Brian Goodwin and Delino DeShields. Both are good defensive outfielders. Neither is known for consistent offense (not even consistently bad offense). Neither is slated to be a starter on his respective team. And most important, neither is likely to make over $3mill next season...
  25. I’d be OK with the Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey trio handling one role, but two? And not even a role that utilizes the one strength in those players’ combined repertoire, which is Dalbec’s defense...
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