notin
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Everything posted by notin
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
notin replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I thought Crawford deserved the AL MVP in 2010 over Josh Hamilton's home/road splits. -
Maybe. But that way back in the day when OBP was ignored, walks were not viewed as a skillset, and batting average and stolen bases were king, and the entire lineup was constructed around the strategy of hitting a grand slam in the first inning...
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Not to mention, the notion that Henry isn’t spending and isn’t retaining top talent is a fallacy. The Sox have extended and retained Sale and Bogaerts, and did so while they still had major commitments to Price and Martinez. And even after all the payroll shedding, they still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB. Is the expectation that they bring in a brand new $250 mill contract every season? Otherwise they’re no different than the Pirates?
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If the group includes Chris Taylor, why not? Of course, the Dodgers already had Hernandez when they acquired Betts, Pollock, Verdugo and Taylor. Yet they still kept acquiring outfielders...
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If you look at most teams 5 years apart, you see some massive changes. Maybe a few players, usually those who signed long term deals, stick around. That is another reason why the farm system is also important...
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Starting in August, the 2012 team shed Crawford, AGon, Beckett, Mike Aviles, Nick Punto, Cody Ross, and Aaron Cook, plus the three most frequently used bench players (Ciriaco, Sweeney, Podsednik), among others. That's 44% of the lineup, 40% of the rotation and a full bench. That's a really big turnover. They moved the starting 1B, SS, LF, RF, and 2 of the most frequently used SP's This team heading into next season has added 1 new SP, 2 new outfielders, and a 2B, and somehow people are screaming this is too much of an overhaul?
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The 2013 team didn't?
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I suppose Dave "Never Finished Lower Than 1st Place" Roberts is guilty of the same egregious error, since Hernandez has played over 1,000 innings at 2B in the last 3 years and only 500 in CF. While the Sox need a CF, the non-Hernandez canddiates for the position are better than the non-Hernandez candidates for 2B. I'd rather see Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe in the OF and EHern at 2B than seeing Arroyo in the everyday lineup...
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Glavine was farm. Smoltz was farm via trade. Maddux was the only one they brought in by spending (after they won two pennants). Also from the farm - Chipper, Andruw, Javy Lopez, Millwood, Wohlers, Lemke, and numerous others.
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It’s also easy to say “the team just needs to spend.” The Sox have signed one free agent who is more expensive than Enrique Hernandez in three years (Eovaldi) and yet they still have one of the highest payrolls in the league. Cot’s has them at 7th highest, which is the first time not in the top three for a while. The team is still spending; the problem is they are spending their cash on old debts. But that’s what happens when you hand out big contracts like candy corn on Halloween...
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The Braves won the NL East 14 times in a 15 year stretch because of their farm. Even if the players weren’t all stars, just by being capable minimum wage players they enabled the team to afford Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz etc...
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Soooooo ..... you are saying a 309 OBP in AA is a better qualification to leadoff than a .313 OBP in MLB?
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The Braves did it and the Dodgers are doing it...
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So Hernandez his .313 OBP in MLB is not a good idea for leadoff but Duran and his .309 OBP in AA ball is?
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
notin replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Oh nonne of us saw them. Not even bosoxmal. But 2 of them are Hall of Famers. Can any other Sox outfield make that claim? -
Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
notin replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Hey let's not forget about Lewis-Speaker-Hooper... -
That's not a mean; a mean is an average. I think you mean median. And really, it's not a median, since the median of a 226 sample set would be the average of entries 113 and 114. (If .333 is also the value of the 114th entry, than our median value is correct.)
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Oh he was a disappointment and never got going. But it was only 211 PA.. What's more disconcerting is in 2019, he posted only a .793 OPS vs RHP. Down a far cry from the 1.051 he posted in 2018 vs RHP. If this trend continues, JDM may find himself as a rather expensive weakside platoon option with no bench versatility by 2022...
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One of my favorite Adam Dunn legends is that he hit a home run into Kentucky off of Jose Lima. Opinions seem to dispute whether or not he actually homered into another state, but that he hit one close enough for the argument is the stuff of legends...
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His MiLB OBP was very good but so far he does have to make it translate to MLB. MiLB pitchers in many cases simply do not throw as many strikes as MLB pitchers, or do not throw them as hard. Basically, they are usually worse pitchers that it is easier to draw walks off of. For a lot of them, there is a reason they are in the minors and in many cases, will never leave the minors. So far, Dalbec has only 92 MLB PA. Too soon to judge either way...
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To me the top 4 hitters on the Sox are no-brainers. Ideally you want Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers up n front of JDM. After that, I am not sure who they should try to get into the 5 through 9 spots. Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero are all big power-big strikeout guys. Dalbec (10.1%) and Cordero (8.9%) have better BB% than Renfroe (7.4%), but Renfroe is also the only one with 500 PA in his career. and the only one to ever have a season with 160 PA. Vazquez has been consistently improving as a hitter. Is he a better candidate to hit in front of the TTO guys? The only hitter let who shouldn't bat 5th in Hernandez. But where should he hit? Maybe 9th, by default?
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Most of MLB will have an OBP between .300 and .380, which is range encompassing 40 times on base for a 500 PA season. That is significant, but it is not normal distribution, as it is heavily weighed towards the lower end. The league average OBP the last 3 eyars was .322 (2020), .323 (2019) and .318 (2018). A .330 OBP is not ideal, but it is above average. Still, for some reason, a .350 OBP - which is barely better in real life - just looks that much better on paper. And regardless of the minute difference in OBP from Hernandez, I still like the idea of Verdugo-Devers-Bogaerts batting 1-2-3 (re-arrange the order in any way). As has been noted, these are the players that you want to get the most plate appearances...
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
notin replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I was surprised by it, but the Sox offered it before arbitration. -
The difference between a .330 OBP and a .360 OBP is 15 times on base for 500 PA. So one extra walk every 10 games...
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
notin replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
My “not at all” comment was on your “way too much.” It’s $1mill per year over his last salary (before being pro-rated). The biggest factor to me in the two years, however...
