The best we can expect from our rotation?
Here are the best stretches our possible SP'ers have had in recent years:
Brayan Bello:
Season: 2023: 4.24 ERA, 4.54 FIP. .777 OPS Against, 1.34 WHIP
20 Game stretch in 2023: 3.18 ERA/ 4.16 FIP, .718 OPSA
Lucas Giolito:
Season 2019: 3.41/ 3.43, .645 OPSA, 1.06 WHIP
3 seasons '19-'21: 3.47/ 3.54 and 1.08 WHIP
First 19 starts of 2023: 3.45/ 4.18, and .697 OPSA
Nick Pivetta:
Season: 2023: 4.04/ 3.96 and .685 OPSA and 1.12 WHIP (some as RP)
Best SP stretch: last 7 GS of 2023: 2.37/ 2.73 and 543 OPSA
22 GS in 2022: 3.92/.404 (.706 OPSA) and 20 GS in '21: 4.27/4/14 (.699)
Kutter Crawford:
Season: 2023 (some as RP): 4.04/ 3.83 and .669 OPSA & 1.11 WHIP
15 game stretch in 2023: 3.73/3.92 and .691 OPSA
Tanner Houck:
Seasons: 2021 (some as RP): 3.52/2.58 and .608 OPSA and 1.13 WHIP
2020-2022 as SP (20 GS): 3.22/ 2.85 (Best on Sox w 90+ IP)
11 GS stretch in 2021: 3.51/ 2.87 and .621 OPSA
Garrett Whitlock:
He does not have a long record as a SP'er.
8 game stretch as SP'er in 2022: 3.60 ERA/ 3.57 FIP and .687 OPSA
We could possibly see a perfect storm, where all these guys put together a long season like some of their best stretches or seasons past, but it is against the odds.
There is talent. There are skills. There is some nasty stuff these guys can throw- all of them. The problem is, they have some pretty long stretches of not being good enough to be even a 5th starter.