moonslav59

It's hard to place a number of value of a player almost all of the speculation nature. Schreiber was a damn good pitcher in '22. He was injured and was much worse in 2023, but one could argue he has proven what his "upside" is. I'm not sure what to think of this trade, just yet. I liked Schreiber. He was not costly, either. I guess we have to build the farm pitching up, so that is the upside of this deal. The draft is a ways away, and the results of our next drafts will not be realized for years. This is one way to try and jump start the process. Brez traded a couple pitching prospects for O'Neill, and lost some to Rule 5, but I'm guessing they were not "his types." He's added a lot of you pitchers and prospects: Fitts Slaten Sandin Campbell Criswell Weissert Oliveras Benitez Judice

Yes. I'd only trade prospects, now if it is for a young pitcher with 4+ years of gteam control. Even then, it might be better to wait, until we start trying, again.

Exactly. Their "image" is tanking, by the minute. There would be some push back after a Bauer signing, but at least many would feel like they are at least trying to win, within the confines of the Scrooge budget.

If the trade is for someone under team control for more years than the rebuild takes, maybe.

He is better utilized at 2B.

LOL! Funny!

His defense was so awful, too, so I think that was part of the criticism, but yes, some were going overboard. Someone even wanted him demoted.

As long as we are not trying to actively win, I agree.

Just anecdotal evidence, here, but it seemed like Casas was getting squeezed by ball & strike calls in April.

I was only talking about peaking, defensively after age 28. When you factor in dWAR or DRS per innings at catcher, I'm not so sure all your "no" designations are correct. Plus, many of these metrics do not count how well veteran catchers get the best out of their staffs. Just looking at a few dWAR stats for some on your list: D Ross: best dWAR was at age 39, 2nd best 32, 3rd best 38, 4th best 30, and all top 10 were at ages 29 and older. IRod's top 4 dWARs were all under 28, but he did have a dWAR or 1.8 at age 29, in year where he played in 30-40 less games. His 1.6 at age 36 was in just 82 games, and would have been top 3, pro-rated. Tony Pena's top 4 were at ages 27, 28, 25 and 29, and 5 of his top 8 dWARs were at 28 or older. His 0.7 at age 39 in just 67 games would pro-rate to top 4-5, career. Alomar: 5 of his top 6 dWAR seasons were at 28 or older. Posada sucked on D, but 7 of his top 8 were 28 or older. The other was at age 27. I only checked these guys.

DHern had such a low H/9 (7.9 MLB, but was 7.0 from '19-'21 and 6.6 from '20-'21) and high K/9 (14.0/9 is one of the best in MLB history for pitchers with 80+ career IP.) AAA (78 IP) 5.2 H/9!!!!! 12.5 K/9 7.2 BB/9

Agreed, but when you know a few teams are talking to him, offering min. wage is not the best strategy to make sure you get him.

There is a good chance one of our top 3 prospects won't come near expectations- maybe even 2. There's a better chance 1-2 of the next 3 ranked prospects don't. Maybe just 1-2 of the next 6 might help in some way. It's hard to know which ones will, and which ones won't. I like Anthony and Teel the most, but I'm also pretty high on Abreu, Rafaela and Cespedes. I might be lower than others on Mayer, Yorke and our two top 10 pitchers: Wikelman and Perales. Bleis seems like the hardest to gauge. With so many recent prospect graduations and the addition of some 5+ year control youngsters like Grissom, Campbell and Slaten, I am pretty optimistic about just about every part of the future of this team, except SP'er. Years of control (only 2+ yrs listed) C: 5+ Teel, 5 Wong (%+ Joh Garcia, Hickey, Brannon) 1B: 5 Casas, 4 Dalbec (5+ Jordan, Kavadas) 2B: 5+ Grissom, (Story?) EValdez, Yorke, Alacantara, 4 Reyes SS: 4 Story, 5+ Mayer, Cespedes, Zanetello, Romero, DHam 3B: 10 Devers, 5+ Meirdroth, A Anderson LF: 5 Duran, 5+ Castro, Rosier, Paulino CF: 5+ Rafaela, Anthony, Bleis RF: 5+ Abreu DH: 4 Yoshida SP: 5 Bello, _____, ______, ______, Walter, Murphy, Fitts 5+ Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell, Monegro, Dobbins, E R-C, Bastardo, Rogers, I Coffey RP: 5 Crawford, Winckowski, Bernardino, Campbell, 4 Houck, Whitlock, 3 Schreiber 5+= Slaten, Mata, Kelly, Guerrero, Hoppe. Troye, Criswell

The article said some teams were interested.

His major concern. 10.0 BB/9 in 27 IP in 2023 5.0 BB/9 in '22 (83 IP) 3.6 in '21 (105 IP) He's trending the wrong way! Slaten: 4.54 BB/9 career. 3.02 in '23 (60 IP) 8.36 in '22 (52 IP) 3.39 in '21 as a SP in 82 IP Looks to be trending in the right direction. These guys remind me of DHern. 7.7 BB/9 career in MLB in 85 IP 7.2 in AAA (78 IP) 7.4 in AA (46 IP)

Some numbers on Catching in MLB, today. (Source: fangraphs) I won't count 2020. The league fWAR for the catching position has ranged from 46.4 in 2007 to 79.5 in 2012. Divide by 30 teams, and the team avg has been between about 1.5 and 2. 6. The Sox have a 43.2 fWAR in the last 20 years, or about a 1.5 rate per year. It's been 4.5 in the last 3 years (1.5 avg.) It was 1.0 in 2023- below average. It did not help that Alfaro and CHamilton totaled a -0.3 fWAR in just 8 games, but even if you discount them, we were below average, but pretty close to average. As I've opined, before, I think most catchers reach their peaks on defense after age 29, 30 or even later. McGuire is 28 and soon to be 29. He was injured for part of 2023, but put up some decent fWARs in 2021 (1.4) and 2022 (1.6), while never playing in more than 90 games. That is pretty impressive. fangraphs has not been kind to the 27 year old Wong, He has a 0.8 fWAR in 159 games in MLB, career. bWAR had this for 2023: 2.2 Wong (same as Casas) -0.1 Alfaro -0.1 CHamilton -0.3 McGuire I think we might get to about average at Catcher in 2024, both on O and D. Just my opinion and certainly could be homer biased.

You gotta give him over a million extra to get him to play here.

I'd give him $2M, so that should win the bidding.

Not surprising. 2022 AA 48 BB in 50.2 IP 2023 AA 16 BB in 51.1 IP 2023 AAA 4 BB in 8.1 IP 68 BB in 110 IP 150 K's is nice, but...

https://bnnbreaking.com/sports/red-sox-pitcher-kutter-crawfords-offseason-bonding-preparation-for-the-2024-season

I agree, but there is a lot of rural poverty, crime, drug addiction and high drop out rates, too.

Crawford went to the school of Chris Martin's Ranch, this winter.

Hard to know. Nobody expected Wacha, Hill and Strahm to do as well as they did. Either way, there has been a lot of turnover between '22 and '23 as well as ;23 to '24.

#50 Rafaela... Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with a very immature approach. Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center field defender capable of making tough plays look easy and impossible plays possible, especially around the wall. He took to center field very quickly after moving there from shortstop (where he still plays on occasion) a few years ago. Especially if you’re inclined to project improvement here because he hasn’t played the outfield for very long, Rafaela has a chance to be the best defensive center fielder in baseball at peak. He is also capable of playing a couple of spots on the infield, though not nearly as well; unless his plate discipline is so terrible that he shifts into a premium utility role, he is probably just going to play center field all the time. Even at 23, Rafaela still has a sinewy, projectable frame. He’s hit 21 bombs each of the last two seasons and we project he’ll add another half grade of power in his mid-to-late 20s. Whether he’ll get to that power is another matter — Rafaela is a very aggressive hitter who has chased at a 40% clip each of the last two seasons. There is some risk of his offense totally bottoming out the way Cristian Pache‘s did, but here he’s projected more like Kevin Pillar but with peak years of superior power.

#14 Anthony... Anthony developed into a better center fielder throughout 2023 and has the offensive foundation (plate discipline and contact) to be a top five prospect if he can more readily get to his power in games. It took us an extra beat to get on this train because Anthony has some weird underlying data characteristics that have us doubting whether his plate discipline is as good as his walk rates might indicate; we also thought he needed a swing change to get to his power (he still kind of does). But Anthony looked much better on tape as a center field defender in September than he did early in the 2023 season, and re-evaluating his defensive home makes a gigantic difference in the way he’s projected overall because he can now have an offensive flaw or two and still be an impact everyday player. While he still isn’t a true big league-caliber speedster or dynamic defensive outfielder, Anthony’s long strides give him enough gap-to-gap range to play center field at an average level, and his reads and ball skills looked much better late in 2023 than they did when Anthony first transitioned from mostly right field to center in pro ball. Anthony’s swing has become almost a carbon copy of Rafael Devers‘ cut, with a violent, mostly downward swooping bat path that relies on the bend in his lower half to go down and scoop low pitches with power like Devers does. While Anthony has shown some ability to do this (it’s absolutely gorgeous when he does), he isn’t doing so consistently. Opposing pitchers can limit his power by approaching him in the bottom half of the strike zone, as he tends to drive those pitches into the ground, and soft stuff precisely located down and away from him often eludes him entirely. Anthony slugged .466 at mostly Low- and High-A in 2023, but his expected slugging percentage based on his quality of contact was only .370; there isn’t consistent lift and power here yet despite his surface level performance. Again, this was way more of an issue in our estimation of him when he was projected as a corner guy. The rest of Anthony’s profile is pretty clean; he’s tough to make swing and miss, he has fantastic bat speed, he already has big league-average raw power as he approaches his 20th birthday, and he’s still physically projectable. Anthony’s plate discipline evokes a baked good that has too much food coloring in it; there’s an air of artificiality to it that makes it feel a bit unnatural. We hypothesize this because Anthony lets a lot of tasty pitches go right past him. One team we source data from tracks players’ “cookie swing rate”; in essence, the rate of swing when a pitch is right down the middle of the plate. Anthony’s was among the lowest in the minors last year, and we think it speaks to an approach that includes premeditated takes rather than actual selectivity. We’re skeptical his elite walk rates will continue as he sees more upper-level time, but the all-around offensive package here is still a big deal for a viable center fielder. Like Spencer Jones of the Yankees, we’re projecting some on swing actualization and center field defense to get to this big time FV grade. Anthony will probably only kick down the door and force the big league issue if things click with his swing, and is probably on more of a late 2026 or early 2027 debut trajectory if they don’t.