moonslav59

I don't disagree. By me saying I think Yorke has the best 2024 potential to be impactful out of our MLB ready MI minor leaguers, is not saying he is very good or even very promising. I do think I prefer him on our 40 over DHam and Sogard, but trading him makes sense, too.

It's just nice to have another year of control, if he turns out to be good to very good. If he's not worth the arb money, then we trade, non-tender or DFA him.

I think it's more like a 4-way time share: LF: O'Neill/Duran CF: Duran/Rafaela RF: Abreu/O'Neill Duran & Abreu can sit vs most LH'd SP'ers. Rafaela may sit vs many RH'd SP'ers. O'Neill has pretty even splits, but may sit vs more RH'd SPers. We had over 2100 PAs in the OF, last year. Certainly, we will go more than 4 deep, but assuming 100% health, we could divide the PAs as such: 600 O'Neill (sits vs some RHPs) 550 Duran (sits vs some LHPs) 475 Abreu (sits vs LHPs) 475 Rafaela (sits vs some RHPs)

I share your excitement over various aspects of the 2024 Sox team. I do not think your projection is unreasonable, at all. The Gio-less rotation is highly suspect: I agree. While many have had stretches of good to great pitching for 16-24 starts, none have had a full season of solid pitching. I suppose one could argue almost all good pitchers have bad parts of every season, but your point is well taken. I will say that Pivetta has had full seasons of looking okay. 2021-2022: 63 GS and a 4.54 ERA (4.35 FIP)- nothing to get excited about, but okay for a 4/5 slot pitcher. The problem is, he's our 2/3 SP'er, now. His best stretches were: Last 2 GS or 2020: 1.80 ERA plus 15 GS to start 2021: 3.97 ERA First 16 GS or 2022: 3.23 ERA and was at a 3.98 FIP after 25 GS. Bello started 28 games, last year, which can be considered a full season, but a 4.24 ERA is not great. The 3.14 ERA after 15 GS and 5.58 the last 13 bolsters your point. Houck has never started more than 21 games in MLB, and had a 5.01 ERA, when he did. Whitlock has never gone beyond 79 IP or 10 GS in MLB. Serious concerns, for sure.

Here, I thought you were one of the more optimistic ones.

Certainly a reasonable projection.

Are you with the 22 game differential, too, or are you closer to a 80-82 projection?

True, so maybe 29 GS and 165 IP, if signed real soon.

Bello went 5, today. 4 hits 1 ER 1 BB 5 Ks (spring ERA: 4.85)

I'm really less and less impressed with DHam- not that I was ever more than just hopeful something would come from that awful JBJ trade. I'm not high on Sogard, either, and soxpropsects projects him as riding the AAA bench to start the season. Yorke might be our best hope for farm help at 2B, not counting E Valdez, of course. Our OF might not look great, but I think we have a pretty solid 4 (Duran, O'Neill, Abreu & Rafaela) with Refsnyder as a good platoon bat at #5. All 5 have weaknesses or shortcomings in some areas, but together, I think we will be fine. It's all about health at SS, 1B and 3B. The catcher position looks okay, to me, and still has upside. I think McGuire was dinged up, last year and is better than he looked in 2023- on D and O. I also think Wong might be a ble to put together a full season like he looked for the first 5 months of 2023 (.729 on Sept 9th.) He needs to work on a couple areas on D, but is very good at stopping the opps' run game. If we can get .710 from our catchers with plus D, we can be an overall plus, there. The bench of Reyes/EValdez, Cron/Dalbec and Rafaela/Abreu is good enough. It will come down to pitching, namely starters and of course, defense.

I think flashy FA signings do have significant PR value, but I do not think it is the major reason teams do it- not that you are saying this. If their calculus is based on not thinking Monty is as good as his numbers have shown, I'm fine with passing on him, as long as the plan does involve spending big on a pitcher, next year, but I just doubt we spend big, then, too. I do think a Monty signing would smooth much of the angst many Sox fans are feeling, right now, but many view him as a ho-hum decent pitcher, many feel he is still far from enough to make us playoff faves, and many would not be impressed all that much.

Wilyer just turned 24, so another year of control would still be a nice and still within "prime years." They could make sure both get the extra year.

This is one way adding 32GS and 180 IP by Monty would make a big impact. We'd need 108 GS (27 GS not 28) from the other 4. The IP per SP'er's 2-5 would also drop from about 150 IP to about 140. More importantly, our current #5 SP'er would be a long man in the pen, which would lessen the load for the other 7 RP'ers on the 26, at any given moment. Our current #6 and #7 would now be #7 and #8. I know you don't like numbering SP'ers, but it would allow us to fill in starts, here and there, with much better pitchers and allow for more missed starts by adding depth to our sp'er core.

I agree, but that seems like a big ask. 140 GS is 28 by all 5. 750 IP is 150 by all 5. (Yes, one may get 180 and 3 others 140, but it's a big ask.) I don't think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are worse than the league average, so those other 22 GS'd might not burn us. If we need 40-50 from our 6 & 7, we might not suffer much. I like our O. (top 10-12) I like our pen (top 10, if not taxed- top 12-14, otherwise) Our D is improved but likely still not up to #15th. The rotation needs to be near 15th to have any chance.

Is the service years and extra year of control the same for Rafaela & Abreu? They may try to make sure both get the "extra year," if possible.

Yes, and he was 4-2 with Texas and 3-1 in the playoffs. That's 7-3 overall, almost all big stress games. The team went 5-1 in his playoff starts.

Sorry but wins and losses is never going to convince me he's not a #2. (Besides, he's top 60 in wins since 2021.) I actually think he is a top 30 SP'er, right now, and I view that as a lower #1 SP'er. BTW, 10 wins ties for 41st in MLB, which is still top 60 and worthy of the #2 status.There were 7 pitchers in the top 60 with just 9 wins. When you say "game changer," do you think starting Monty over our current 5th starter (maybe Wink or Whitlock) is not a significant "change?" Out of 150 SP'ers with 200+ IP since 2021, Monty places 41st in ERA at 3.48. 109 pitchers were worse- many much worse. He's also 41st in FIP, which suggests his ERA is not lucky. (He's also 41st in ERA-, just ahead of Nate & Pablo Lopez. He's 16th in fWAR due to being 10th in GS and 16th in IP. He's 49th in WHIP. He's 47th in K/BB ratio. He's 53rd in Wins. All are top 60. If you value fWAR, but use other stats, too, he is very close to top 30, which to me, is a #1. Lower #1, but still #1. If you value ERA, wins and other stats more than fWAR, he still looks clearly around 40th to 50th, which is a mid level #2 SP'er, if you consider the 31st to 60th best pitchers as #2's. He is way better than 4/5 level SP'ers and would make a significant difference to any team. He eats innings and gives you a 3.48 ERA. Red Sox ERA Leaders since 2018: (200+ IP) 3.45 Sale 3.84 Price 4.01 Nate 4.12 ERod 4.39 Bello (our #1, now) 4.51 Piv etta (our #2 SP'er, now) 4.87 Porcello Others under 200: 3.32 Wacha in 127 IP 4.17 Houck (198) 4.27 R Hill (124) How can a 3.50 guy who gives you 175+ IP not be a big difference make on this staff? Please explain.

I like the idea, but O'Neill, when healthy, should be a very good hitter vs LHPs and RHPs. His career splits are pretty even. .816 v LHPs, which is the short end of a platoon. (maybe he could start v some RHPs) .765 v RHPs (I'm not sure Abreu projects higher than .765 v RHPs.) In his big 2021 season: 1.025 v LHPs .888 v RHP I think maybe we sit Rafaela a bit more, so O'Neill & Abreu play more. Maybe sit Duran vs several LHPs, to spread out the PAs more evenly. When healthy: O'Neill: 90% vs RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (RF/LF) Duran: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (CF/LF) Abreu: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (RF/CF) Rafaela: 10% v RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (CF) Is this enough playing time for Rafaela? If you give him 50+% vs RHPs, and we could sit Abreu? This assume no Yoshida in the OF.

Has Duran played RF, at all, in ST'ing? I still think it will be... LF: O'Neill (Yoshida when not at DH) CF: Duran (Abreu when not in RF) RF: Abreu (O'Neill when Yoshida is in LF) 4th: Refsnyder (when healthy) AAA: Rafaela (at least until he earns the extra year of control)

bal 97-65 tbr 93-69 nyy 85-77 tor 84-78 bos 82-80

I'm thinking maybe Criswell deserves a slot on the 26 and may do well. (I thought that about Andriese, too.)

He just turned 31, less than 3 months ago. He will be 31 through all of year 1, 32 for year 2 and just 33 for year 3. 33 is not old. His birthday is in December. Here is the list of top pitchers in 2023. How far down the list do you have to go to find 1, 2 or 3 SP'ers under 31? (I did not do the research, but I think it's #14 German Marquez. Castillo at #9 is 31, I believe.)

How do you figure he may not even be a "true #2?" In just about every meaningful stat and metric he is top 15-50, maybe top 60 on 1 or two. There are 60 #1's and #2's in MLB. I do agree he will not get the money or years he seeks. I think he'll get 3 years with a 4th year option and decent buy out. Maybe... $75M/3 with a $20M 4th year and $5M buyout- making it $80M/3 or $95M/4. He will not be old in year 3. He might even be very good in year 4. Injury is always a worry, but we need to roll the dice on proven, good pitchers. Monty is one. (I am nearly certain JH will not pay what he ends up getting.)

Of course we all prefer younger players, but with JH, it's mostly about cost. IMO, we should have signed Yamo. Risky, yes, but his age was something you never see on the open market. Monty is NOT old. He doesn't have 100,000 miles on his arm, although he does have a TJS history. I'm talking about trying to win now AND in the next 2 years. We aren't trading top prospects, so I'd like Monty. I know JH is almost certainly saying no.

Why? Because maybe we can compete in '24 and '25. I'm not saying your idea is not a good one. If we truly are ounting, then Monty makes little sense. I'm not so sure we will sign "younger and better" pitchers, later. They cost more, and JH might not ever snap out of this funk. I don't think Monty is going to get the years and dollars some think he will. We'll see.