moonslav59

I hope we figure it out before other teams do.

Agreed. The emphasis on throwing more breaking balls and increasing spin rates started before Bailey got here and is near league wide, if not totally league wide, by now. You have to wonder why the 4 seemer was not deemphasized years ago, but sometimes change is slow. I happen to think pitchers trying to increase spin rates, while still throwing just as hard, if not harder is a significant reason for increased injuries to pitchers.

I'm not assuming he'd be doing better than what we have, now. I did not like the signing. What I did expect was that he'd start 30 games and give us 170+ IP. That would have kept Whitlock in the pen, and perhaps off the IL. Yes, it's all speculative.

Amazingly, the team is 2-4 in his starts besides these ERs allowed per start: 0 in 6 IP 1 in 4.2 IP (WIN) 0 in 5.0 0 in 5.2 1 in 6.0 (WIN) 3 in 6.0 No wins in the 3 games where he allowed no ERs!

Yes, I agree with your position. Whitlock should never start another game, unless as a 2-3 IP "opener." Starting Crawford and Houck was a good idea. I don't think they should have "stretched out" Wink.

This is so true, these day.

Yes, but much like Whitlock only going over 73 IP, once in his whole career in the minors and majors, Crawford only went over 102 IP, once. That was way back in 2018 at the A-/A+ level. He's gone 88, 95 and 102 until 2023's 129 IP. You have rightfully stated that RP'ers often have better numbers, but his are vastly different: Career OPS Against .592 RP (1.089 WHIP) .720 SP (1.253 WHIP) I'm glad they gave him a shot to start, this year. it's not always such an easy choice, but I agree with your take on Whitlock, especially with his injury history.

The continued skimping on adding quality AND durable SP'ers to the staff has forced the need to squeeze pitchers like Whitlock into a role they should not be in. I wonder if "stretching out" Winckowski, this past winter and spring is part of the reason he is doing worse than 2023. I've been fine with Houck as a starter, as long as we had longmen like Whitlock in the pen to come into the game in the 5th and 6th inning, when Houck has had trouble going beyond 18 batter. (Hopefully, he is over that trend.) I also wanted Crawford in the pen, but he looks more and more like a quality starter. The Gio injury really hurt, especially since our minor league depth was basically just Criswell & Anderson.

I hope they can go long (over 25-27 GS,) this year, but even if they give us 20-26 GS, they would still be the best in over a decade, unless they implode.

Agreed. I understand why teams leave the starter option open as long as possible, but I think we go too far, at times- maybe because our system has been so devoid of good SP'ers for far too long, butis see many of our minor league starters as future RP'ers.

Nice summary. I've also been impressed by Abreu's defense- not that it has been great, but it has been better than I expected, despite "kicking that ball around RF" in that game we lost. I've been a believer in Rafaela's offense getting to an acceptable level, over time. I'm not sure it will be in 2024, but I think he will find a groove. I'm getting more and more upbeat about our future, beyond 2024. Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF looks pretty solid, despite some unanswered issues. (Having Ref at #4 and Anthony banging on the door adds to my faith our OF should be fine.) Casas 1B, Grissom 2B, Story SS and Devers 3B can be very solid, if they can stay healthy. (The infield depth is questionable, to say the least, but Mayer offers some promise.) I've always viewed Wong and McGuire a bit higher than many. They both have done very well in this first 30 games of 2024, but both have had very nice stretches in previous seasons. The DH position looks weak, but we have so many bad defensive hitters with promise on O, that I think we will end up being okay, there: Yoshida, Valdez, Hickey, Kavadas, Yorke, Refsnyder, Duran, if Antony wins an OF slot) The pitching staff has some gaps, for sure, and martin/jansen will lose control, this winter. The first 30 days have helped solidify our confidence that a few can be capable rotation (Bello, Houck, Crawford) and pen (Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino) pieces. If we get to spend more, maybe we can fill out the pitching staff with good and healthy pitching. We also have Giolito, hendriks and others returning for 2025.

It does look like many of our pitchers are doing as well as ever. Here are the comps from 2023 to 2024: ERA+/FIP 2023> pitcher> 2024 108/4.54 Bello 138/4.06 114/3.83 Crawford 138/2.20 114/3.96 Pivetta 522/2.25 160/3.91 Winkpwski 120/3.44 92/4.43 Houck 155/2.02 89/4.27 Whitlock 215/3.33 199/2.44 Martin 77/4.13 188/3.66 Jansen 230/3.06 144/3.41 Bernardino 537/3.08 Some of these guys doing very well, have had some long stretches of doing well for parts or full seasons before 2024. Houck 920/3.25 in 3 starts of 2020 133/2.58 in 2021 134/3.30 in 2022 (150/2.95 from 2020 to 2022 in 146 IP) That's pretty close to 2024. Crawford: 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP after his first 3 games of 2023. He's doing much better, now, but he had a nice stretch in 2023- pre-Bailey. Bello 3.97 ERA/4.45 FIP after first 2 starts of '23 3.59/3.96 middle 19 GS of '23, which is better than 2024 Pivetta has had long stretches of very good pitching in each of the last 3 seasons. Whitlock: 163 ERA+/3.07 FIP from 2021-2022 combined (152 IP), which is pretty close to 2024.

Agreed. We have had a long stretch of not producing great or even very good SP'ers from Buch to maybe Houck's call ups. Those call-up dates range from 8/17/07 to 9/15/20. That's a little over 13 years! That's not counting ERod, but even he was just one guy in a sea of misses. If we don't count ERod, Whitlock, Wink or Slaten, I still see a very significant uptick from the very best SP'ers in that 13 year period to the 3 years starting with Houck: Houck Crawford Bello (Aquired as prospects: Whitlock, Wink, & Bernardino) Granted, this does not look like the start of some positive trend, as our top pitchers on the farm are not all that promising, which might be an understatement, on my part. Some of our best young pitchers were traded for or acquired from another farm system: Slaten Fitts Weissert Gambrell Kelly Benitez Sandlin Penrod Olivarez Judice (Criswell, Campbell & Pivetta were acquired early in their MLB careers) Here are our current best pitching prospects who have been in only our system: 8. Gonzalez 10. Perales 21. Monegro 23. E R-C 24. Dobbins 28. Guerrero 29. Bastardo 31. Hoppe 34. Troye 37. Rogers 38. Cohen 39. Wehunt 40. Mata

In Sox history, the park dimensions is probably more pronounced, as Fenway and Yankee Stadiums are about as far to the extreme opposite of each other. How often have we heard, that would not have been a homer in Fenway park/Yankee Stadium? It does seem like some clubs build their team to suit their park, but they still play half their games away, so I'm not sure how much that strategy works. BTW, the NHL had some significant differences in size of the ice area, which really changes how the game is played.

Criswell now has a 3.35 FIP, which is still way higher than his 1.65 ERA, but it is going down. Again, his sample size is very small. Here is a breakdown of some tiny sample sizes: ERA/FIP 2021+2022 combined 7.71/2.06 (just 4.2 IP) 2023: 7.94/5.99 First 3 games of season (11.1 IP) 2.70/3.80 (16.2 IP in middle of season) 10.80/9.06 Last 2 games (5IP) 2024: 1.65/3.35 (16.1 IP) Career: 4.67/4.46 (significantly affected by the two vert tiny sample sizes of a and 3 games at the start and end to the 2023 season.) Of course, all pitchers would see their numbers greatly improve by removing their orst stretches, but it seems to me, the outlier might be those two tiny sample sizes, and maybe this guy might be pretty good. "MIGHT." I'm not predicting greatness, but I think the door is still open for him to show he's pretty damn good. Yes, his minor league numbers seem to point to the opposite (4.33 ERA in minors.) Maybe Bailey worked some voodoo magic on him, but he's looked pretty good, to me.

It would be an extreme cost to some stadiums, and I'm not so sure why it should be a goal. I think it's kind of cool having different dimensions.

Maybe he can harness it, like A Miller ended up doing.

That may be true, but Houck, Crawford, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, Wink and Bernardino all showed some pretty long stretches (some pitchers 2-3 of them) before he got here. Slaten was highly regarded before we traded for him. I do think he has helped, a lot.

It does seem like it is as simple as that.

So, I asked this question before the season started, with the intention of pointing out how our homegrown pitchers may not be as bad as the best of those who came up in the previous decade. Bello, Houck, Crawford (I guess we could count Whitlock, Wink & Slaten, as they were prospects when acquired.) The best from who came up from 2014 to 2023, not counting who is here, now: ERod (if we count Whitlock, Slaten & Wink, he counts, too.) Barnes Workman Kopech Who am I missing? Have we greatly improved? Has your opinion changed much since Mid March 2024?

Sox are now 1 GB in the loss column to the"mighty" Yanks. 2.5 up on TOR and 3.5 up on the Rays. We are tied with DET at 17-13 for the 6th best AL record (-0.5 from KCR) We are on a pace of 92 wins over 162 games as we near the 1/5th mark of the season. Some games are still in progress, but we lead MLB in team ERA: 2.59 BOS 3.00 SEA 3.06 NYY 3.19 DET 3.21 KCR We are 3rd in K/BB at 3.52 and WHIP at 1.11. We are 8th in team OPS at .739 but just .001 from 2 teams at .740 (PHI & NYY) We are 4th in HRs at 36. We are 11th in Runs (7 behind 6th place and 8th behind 5th)

Woo beat the snot out of the Iron Pigs. They had 13 hits and 5 walks. Simas homered. Meidroth 1-3 w 2BB Kavadas 2-4 w two 2Bs Fitts 6IP 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2BB & 7 Ks. Gutierrez did not do too well (3H and 5 BB in 3 IP) POR won 9-3 Penrod went 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2BB, 7 K Mayer 1-5 w 2B Anthony 0-4 w BB Teel 1-4 w 2 RBI Paulino 2-4 w 3 RBI Jordan 1-3 w 2BB GRE won 12-7 The 1-2-3 slot Cs all homered: 1-3 Coffey 2-5 Campbell w BB 2-4 Castro w 2B Rosario & Ugueto each had 3 hits

Pivetta was kinda established (as a bad SP'er.)

For some reason, I thought you said Criswell, jokingly. My bad. My eyes are failing me. I doubt we end up being impressed by Cooper as the season goes on, but he should be better than Dalbec.

Got caught up late, tonight. Loved this game. Group effort. We've now been through the 5 man rotation 6 times. 30 GS or opened and really just 2 bad starts. That is astounding.