moonslav59

Well, you are the only poster who claims every post is perfect, so you probably think this is not-picking, too. 🤪

AI cites Sports Illustrated when providing this... The Arizona Diamondbacks were heavily linked to Boston Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer during offseason trade talks centered around Ketel Marte. However, the Diamondbacks wanted Mayer included in the return package, which the Red Sox refused, and Arizona ultimately removed Marte from the trade market entirely

I'd love to see Tolle dominate the Yanks.

What does that have to do with saying its the "real question?" No, hardly any players go two months that low. No Sox players is doing what he's been doing in June, either. To me, Duran's .624 OPS on June 26th is more of "the killer," since he was batting 1-5 most of the season.

Was that ever confirmed? I heard Mayer plus one from Early or Tolle, but I can't find any proof of that, either.

Fangraphs had the Sox projected with the 10th best team WAR. 15th best "Batter" WAR, which includes defense. 1st in Pitching projected WAR. 60% chance to make playoffs (85-77 season) Player OPS projected rankings: 35 Anthony .803 52 Abreu .788 60 Contreras .785 67 Casas .782 (WOW!) 89 Yoshida .768 104 Duran .762 120 Romy .755 Going by league averages, we should have 2 batters in the top 60- we had 3. We should have 3 batters in the top 90- we had 5. We should have 4 batters in the top 120- we had 7.

Yes, 87 players were projected to hit 20, but no Sox players- not even Contreras (19) Abreu (18) and Story (17) They projected Ceddanne with 16, Duran & Roman with 15 and Mayer/Narvaez with 10. Durbin with 9. Doubling current HR totals would be... 32 Contreras 24 Duran 20 Abreu (close) 14 Ceddanne (under projections) 12 Durbin 0 Story & Roman (under)

I'll never brag about being right on that one. I was not alone in that position, either. The massive spending and trading away over 20 prospects that were once top 20 was the writing on the wall. JH was never a year-after-year big spender. He often cut back after winning seasons. The expectation that "because he can spend more, he will" was not supported by any evidence, and we have seen that happen in recent years. I never expected the "cliff" to be more than 1-2 years long. I'm not happy about this coming true, and this became like the cliffs at Acapulco. Dive after dive!

2014 was the only time under Henry. 2012 was the Dodger Dump trade, but it was in late August.

ERos, Pivetta and Abreu are good, but we really haven't been true sellers all that often. Some years we were kinda both. 2020 was "firesale" but what are you gonna get for Moreland and Pillar types? The Workman for Pivetta deal worked out well. 2022 saw us trade Vazquez (for EValdez & Abreu) and Diekman (for Reese) but was that really a "fire sale?" That summer also saw us "buy" with the Groome for Hosmer & scraps trade. We also sent cash for Tommy Pham. Kind of a mix & match deadline. 2014 was the true sell off. Lester for Cespedes, who morphed into Porcello. Lacket for Jose Kelly, Allen Craig & Litrell. Andrew Miller for ERod was the best of these deals. (Stephen Drew for Kelly Johnson... LOL)

Many of us liked it a lot.

Did we pay Gray anything to get him to waive his NTC? Gray has to be the prize summer trade, for us. It's essential w e get something useful in return. I would not trade Chapman, unless someone blows us away. T Guerrero & Coulombe can be traded, but don't expect anything more than what we gave up for Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims a couple years ago. Not sure what Bello would bring back, but his upside value to us might be worth more than what we can get. I'd mention the salary relief, but expecting JH to spend what he saves and then some is a lost cause. Everyday players... On Duran, I doubt he gains more value by wintertime, so I would probably just take the best offer. Someone has an OF need big enough to settle on him. Yoshida has between zero and maybe $1-2M a year value, but it's time to move on and give someone else a shot, even if that someone else is not very promising. We could trade one of our 3 catchers, but that should only be done, if we are certain to add one, this winter- a much better one! (Trading for William Contreras would be a nice plan.)

Is it? Certainly, he played a big role in the poor start, but why does that make it "the real issue?" Every player has ups and downs.

Agreed, and knowing when to challenge or not should bot be a baseball skill that helps a team win or lose. 100% ROBO UMPS on balls and strikes is the obvious thing to do.

It's not the first time a team came up way short of projections on O or D or pitching. Many felt fangraphs was rough on Sox projections. I don't think we can blame injuries for the offense, since we have not had all that many. AThe rotation has seen a lot, but most teams have had major injuries to their rotations, too. I think almost all of us felt our offense could have used at least one more big bat. While I was one who did not think Bregman and Bichette were "big bats," I did think both would hit better than Durbin. Anthony and Mayer had a lot of promise, but I think we all knew it was speculative value. Narvaez was still rather unknown, and Rafaela has always been up and down. Many felt Contreras was too old to count on to repeat or improve on his 2025 or prior 2-3 year numbers. Story has always been a question... not just healthwise. To me, the most hope was on the players nearing or within peak prime. Abreu, Duran and to some extent Yoshida coulda-woulda-shoulda improved. They did not. There was hope for Anthony, Narvaez & Durbin, too, but less certain. The end result is we clearly needed another big bat, and one could argue two. That's beyond the Contreras addition. When you look at how FAs are doing, now, Brez would have had to have been extremely lucky to pick the right ones. Schwarber seemed like the no-brainer, but I'm not sure even a few $M more a season would have landed him in Boston. Picking Murakami and trading for BLowe or Donovan were not choices any of us were clamouring for, yet Brez gets the blame for not being a fortune teller. Ultimately, it is the GM who gets the blame, even if he seemingly chose the right guys to add. In hindsight, maybe we could have gotten BLowe or Donovan for the Oviedo offer plus Bello added on, but Monday morning QB'ing is always right.

In the Sox case, over 2/3 are doing worse than projected, including low-playing players.

When you figure even Fred thought we'd win more games, this year, I don't think anyone can call Brez crazy for thinking it.

Maybe being a Yankee spoiler is all we can hope for, this year.

POR has a nice win as Ziehl pitched well. Garcia, Brannon, Arias & Baez 2 hits and Alcantara 3. Bello did okay in Woo's loss. Gonzales his his 10th w GRE (3 hits) He's at .812, now. SAL continues losing and losing.

We won 89 games, last year and many of us projected 90 or more this year, as it looked like the AL got worse, overall (and it did.) Even Fred projected 90 wins (and missing play playoffs) as he must have expected the AL to dominate. I heard Brez said they felt they improved from the EOY roster last year, and was mocked by one podcast I watched for saying that.

Something to shoot for?

Winnay has 57 BBs and just 52 Ks. Will Turner 50-49. Sogard 35-29 (MLB 6K:5 BB) Seigler 26-26 MLB 6K: 2BB) Gasper 25-27 (MLB 21K- 9BB)

One run from Tied for 5th best w DET 4 runs from Tied for 4th best w CWS. 11 runs from SEA at +4 (3rd best.)

Those are significant swings, and Duran (.762> .624) & Durbin's (.746> .636) are also well below projections, but we also have a few plusses: Contreras: .785> .896 (+111) Rafaela: .725> .785 (+60) Wong: .674> .750 (+76) IKF: .651> .705 (+54)

It should have been Cora talking to Devers, so the GM needing to talk to him was already messed up. Even if your boss is a buffoon, you should do what's best for the team, even if you disagree it is best. It's not easy to assign %s of blame, but Devers, Cora & Brez all get a share. (I'd give a small dose to Bloom for apparently promising 3B fo Devers forevers.)