moonslav59

Exactly. For all we know, one team might be waiting until the last minute to blast in with a top offer that is higher enough to end any counter offer ideas. That could be the Dodgers. I doubt TOR blows everyone else away. I'm hoping the Dodgers will start thinking they've done enough for a while. The Yanks have a lot to lose by missing out on Soto, since there is nobody out there to replace his loss to their team. The Mets would love to steal some thunder from the Yanks. The NYC buzz would be enormous, but I'm not sure Cohen is still into wild spending, just for spending's sake. I think he has set a limit. I hate to be thinking like this, because I am SOOOO sick of letdowns, but I'm liking the Sox chances, the more I think about it. Reports suggest we are $70M below line one and $90M below line two. I'm thinking JH may just spend between those two amounts in winter AAV added to the budget. $70-90M add a huge chunk of talent to an already decent foundation.

He's too unknown for me to add to my must get Soto alternates, but he would be a nice score.

Once again, the health of Story will play a big role in how we set our infield, and how well our team does, particularly as related to defense. Assuming he plays 140+ games at SS, we have several options for shuffling our infield around to greatly improve our defense. Whether we can or do dump Yoshida need not interfere with step 1: move Devers to 1B or have him share 1B/DH duties with Casas. 1B: Devers & Casas SS: Story (Mayer as back-up, then Romy) That leaves 2B and 3B. If we do not add anyone else, there are a few choices: 2B: Campbell & 3B: Mayer (Grissom/ Meidroth) 2B: Campbell & 3B: Grissom 2B: DHam & Grissom platoon & 3B: Campbell or Mayer (Grissom/Meidroth) I like any of these choices better than running back the same IF as 2024, but with Story FT. Unlike Larry, I do not think this would be a major selling point to land top pitchers, but it would make us a better defensive team, without hurting the offense, IMO. I've suggested moving Devers to 1B and then offering Casas + Abreu in trade to find a cost-effective SP'er, but losing Casas would greatly hurt the offense. Even if we add Soto, I'd like to keep Casas. Soto all but guarantees an Abreu trade.

Here is another way to look at the situation, even if we assume JH is going to spend bi, this winter. Are the odds better that we win the Soto bidding war and then sign 1-2 other important players, or we miss out on Soto and then sign 3 or 4 from... Burnes and Fried Teoscar or (please no) Bregman Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Estevez

I think we have several pitchers like him that we just have not seen pitch. Also, watching someone pitch one to two times is not enough to get a true read. Somedays, even the best of the best look awful. Again, I'm a quality over quantity kinda guy, but our quantity has some decent quality sprinkled in, here and there. We have close to 30 pitchers with some sort of highlight. If 1/6th make a decent jump, that's 5. If another 1/6th make some sort of gain, maybe we have 5 more. Another sixth or third might keep the hope alive for a jump in 2027. A jump from Priester (not a prospect, but I'm counting him) Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, or even Sandlin or Early could give us help by 2025 or 2026. It would be nice to have a few healthy Perales's, but it is what it is.

You are right. Abreu, Fitts and Kelly is too much to give. LOL. Maybe Abreu, Arias, Kelly & Wikelman....

I'm against Bregman, too. I'd be okay with Fried, Teoscar (trade Abreu & othrs for Crochet), Scott and Higgy/Jansen. (Maybe add Holmes.)

Both Cohen and JH could pay him a $Billion, if they wanted to. I'm sure they both have a high line they won't cross. This signing may mean more to JH and his personna than it does to Cohen or Steinbrenner. Maybe that is the deciding factor. All of these three owners might be content with just driving up the price and then swopping in on Burnes, Fried, Bregman or couple others.

If another team offers $650M/13, we should counter with $670M/14. If the league allows a 15 year offer, do it and bring down the AAV, as much as possible. That will matter, when JH goes through his next budget cutting period (or two and three over the next 15 seasons.)

I don't disagree, and Yoshida will likely start the season on the IL- maybe even the 60 day one. If Yoshida and Ref are ever on the roster, at the same time, as they have been for many months from 2023-2024, it might just be for a short time, as we evaluate what Yoshida can give us (or another team via trade.) Ref can play LF or a short RF, and Duran can move to CF, so that would lessen the need for a 5th OF'er. Rafaela's ability to play CF like a GG'er, 2B pretty well and SS in a pinch does give us some flexibility. DHam or Grissom at SS is frightening, unless just for one day, as we call up Romy or Mayer to take it over due to an injury to Story. DHam or Grissom could play 3B, until Romy or Mediroth are called up. Again, it's not ideal, but we've done it for 2 years, except Ref platooned the OF not DH. I see the difference, but whoever is not DH'ing still can act as a back-up OF'er or PH'er. I don't like it either, but as much as I've tried, I can't find a Yoshida trade that makes sense for both teams, and I do not think he should be DFA'd, right now. We NEED REF's RH'd BAT. He is a top 25 hitter vs LHPs, and that is a major weak area on this team. Find a Yoshida trade that makes sense, and I'll be driving that bandwagon.

If you had to choose only one, what would it be? Soto, Pivetta, Scott, Jansen & trade Abreu, Fitts & Kelly for Crochet. Burnes, Teoscar, Scott, Holmes, Higgy & same trade. (I almost gave this as a choice: Burnes, Fried, Scott and Jansen and keep Abreu while trying to dump Yoshida.)

It would be a massive overpay, but I think we have backed ourselves into a corner. Paying Soto close to double what we might have gotten Betts for seems insane, but we need to bite the bullet on someone, and Soto, at his age, seems like the best "bullet" there can be. If we miss out on Soto, we'd need to sign 3-4 of the most useful 7 or 8 FAs on the market. In fact, we will still need to add 1-2 big names with Soto, as well. No Soto: Fried and/or Burnes (if one, then Pivetta, Flaherty or ___?) Bregman or Teoscar Higgy or Janssen Scott or two from Holmes, Estevez & Hoffman With Soto: Fried or Burnes (Pivetta, Flaherty, if we also get Scott and one the next 3 listed below) Scott, Holmes, Estevez or Hoffman Higgy or Jansen Getting Soto makes trading Abreu or Rafaela a sure bet, so we'd add value here, too.

Everybody agrees Yoshida is overpaid. That does not make him a DFA guy. I do not think he is even close to that point, right now. If he were a FA, right now, the injury issue would lower his contract or force a one year deal, so it's hard to say what his FA value would be for 3 years. Due to the injury, his "market value" could range from $3M x 3 to maybe $10M x 3, if considered healthy. If you count this value towards the $18.3 M x 3, he's owed, we'd have to pay the other team around $9-14M a year with nothing in return expected. If we knew saving $4-9M a year would be used to sign a RP'er or up an offer on a better player, it might be worth it. To me, we should probably just trade Abreu and go with Yoshida at DH for 2025. If he's doing well, and he is not blocking anyone, we just keep him. If we think someone else needs PAs vs RHPs, we can trade him, while his value is a bit higher. If ends up sucking in 2025, then maybe we lost $4-9M in budget space for 2-3 years. I like a Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH, despite it taking up 2 out of 13 roster spots. Ref can also be the 4th or 5th OF'er (LF.) If we trade Abreu and promote Anthony, that leaves LF Duran/Ref, CF Rafaela/Duran, RF Anthony (Ref in away gms only.) That leaves one roster slot for the back-up catcher and one for IF utility- DHam-Grissom, whoever is not starting or one of them on the bench, if Campbell wins the 2B job. Rafaela, also offers MI depth, which helps us be able to carry two DH types. Not ideal, I admit, but we can start the season like this, assuming Yoshida is not on the April IL.

As much as I have tried to temper all hopes, I fell for this. I'm prepared to be flogged.

Good question. I was thinking of a trade during the 2025 season, as Yoshida also has to show he is recovered. Maybe a radar gun? Scouts watching him have pitch in 2025. If pre 2025, scouts watching him during pitching session?

Slaten looks "core" to me. We can argue all day what "core" or "foundation" mean, but I think the guys I listed will have key roles on the team for their remaining controlled years. I can see MVP's point about "core" needing to be more than a utility type player, so I'll break it down, player-by-player. Devers, Duran and Houck are core in any sense of the word. I guess I can understand someone thinking we have only 3 core players that have unquestionable star status. Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Slaten look to be significant plus pitchers, especially if used in correct roles. Wong needs to improve on defense to be viewed as a plus starting catcher, and maybe he will. It took VTek a long time to get to plus-plus on D. Just a little improvement would make him a very good back-up catcher, who can PH or play 2B, at times. (Teel offers some hope, but I would not call him "core," just yet.) Casas has yet to put up a monster year, but his 162 game line from 2023-2024 is .256 31 81 (.838 OPS and 126 OPS+) The guy turns 25, soon. If he is not core, then I guess I am willing to argue semantics. Story could be "core," if he remains healthy. His years of control are dwindling, which could be fine, as long as Mayer comes through. Mayer and Campbell are speculative core. I'll leave it at that. Meidroth has some hope for near-term contributions. Abreu and Rafaela both have a major flaw that needs fixing, in order to be called FT core players. Abreu needs to hit LHPs, but can still be a major plus, if platooned. Rafaela needs to hit .700 or .720 to be a FT player. That does not seem like an impossible task, at his age. As some sort of platoon, these two, combined could be viewed as one single "core" player. Maybe, someday they can be two. To me, Anthony seems to be a sure bet MLB core player, but I can understand wanting to wait on that label. Other pitchers all have flaws or too few years of control to be considered as core. On a 13 man staff, some should add value in limited roles: Gio & Hendriks have one year left and injury-recovery issues. Winckowski has some flashy numbers, along with others not-so-flashy ones. Out of 150 pitchers with 160+ IP since 2023, Wink has the 23rd best ERA- at 80. (He's 61st in SIERA at 3.98, 64th i XFIP at 4.01, but 126th in WHIP at 1.42.) Call him a useful mid-pen guy. Guerrero has a lot to prove. The rest might be useful pen depth but more like #11-13 or AAA guys. Penrod, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, Mata and I Campbell have some hope. Booser, Wilson, Fulmer, Shugart and others may not last the season. Priester, Fitts, Criswell and Dobbins look promising, to me, but not "core," just yet. Perales might be a full season or 1.5 away. I won't go down to AA and lower players, but we have some promise below our top 5-6 prospects. I think we have a decent core and foundation of players, at or pre-prime, who have 3 or more years of control. Many are not even to year one arbs and no key players are even at year 2. We have a 2-3 year window, where we will have a pretty big core of lower-cost players to supplement the FAs we should add.

I'm almost willing to take back anything with a heartbeat for Yoshida, if the money saved is used to add some value to the roster, or the player we get back has some hope of contributing at a position of higher need. When healthy, his "value" might be between $3M a year up to maybe $10M a year, if he is showing he can hit .780-.800. I'm not sure about Walker. Certainly his recent numbers show he has zero or negative value, aside from the contract, but if he shows signs he can rebound, maybe he'd be worth a risk.

It's what you want, but maybe 3-4 teams have that, now. Teams look to improve, sometimes with baby steps, and most teams look to do it cheaply. All it takes is one team to think Yoshida is better than the SH they have and what it would be worth to get him as an upgrade. When you look at the DHs from 2023-2024, Yoshida falls about in the middle in OPS. Probably 10-15 teams would view Yoshida as an upgrade over their DH, but they might prefer a DH who can play a position, too. My guess is maybe 5-10 teams would take him for $3-5M a year. Maybe 10-15 might take him at $1-2M a year. Just guessing. (Maybe 1-3 teams might want him at $5-7M a year, but who knows?)

He has a career 111 OPS+. He has value as a DH. It's just not $18M/yr value. Once he shows he's healthy, I think we could trade him with $10-13M a year for a single A player. There is no need to waste $5-8M a year by DFA'ing him.

60 Day IL or bench or trade

Watching my Packers, tonight, I could not help but think how blessed we have been with high quality QBs, almost every year since Bart Starr. A QB rating of 75 or better is considered very good to excellent. I'm not going year-by-year, but here are the QBs we have had on the roster and their career QB rating with the Packers, only. 1956-1971 Bart Starr 80.5 4 years off 1976-1985 Lynn Dickey 73.8 1 year off 1987-1992 Majkowski 73.5 1992-2007 Favre 85.8 2005-2022 Rogers 103.6 2021-2024 Love 93.4 37 straight seasons with a QB on the roster with a 73.5+ QB rating. 47 out of 48 seasons since 1976. 63 out of 68 seasons since 1956. SF has had some great QBs, but this stretch is pretty damn awesome.

We finished 3rd with this line-up minus Anthony and most of Story & Grissom. A DHam-Grissom platoon with Campbell should improve or 2B slot. Story + Mayer/Campbell should improve the SS slot. Add Higgy or Jansen and our catcher O should be better. Almost every other player "from last year" is on the upswing towards their prime years. Why do you assume no improvement?

Simply sign Soto, Bregman, Fried, Scott & Higgy. Trade: Abreu, Fitts & Kelly for Crochet 1. Duran CF 2. Soto LF 3. Bregman 3B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Casas DH/1B 6. Story SS 7. Anthony RF 8. Campbell 2B 9. Higgy-Wong C Bench: Rafaela, DHam, Grissom & Wong/Higgy SP: Fried, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito RP: Scott, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Crawford, Guerrero, Winckowski, Wilson/Bernardino

A big stir of the pot- all over one no-name guy on X.