moonslav59

The fact that Sale is doing great does not change the fact of the lack of dependability we had with him for over 5 years. I don't think any other team was offering anything better than Grissom without us paying a big chunk of Sale's salary. The fact that Grissom has sucked in 87 PAs just doubles the early grades on the trade. BTW, I do not view Gio as a bargain basement signing like Kluber, Richards, Perez I & II, Wacha and Hill were. The fact that he got hurt before pitching an inning does not change the fact that JH did allow for about double the spending on any SP'er since the Sale extension. It just flopped out of the gate- much like the Sale trade. The final grade is not in on the Sale & Dugo trades, just like it is not on the Beni and Renfroe trades, just yet.

I think we all agree, but until we reach that point, we should do everything we can to better the team and try to get to the point, where we will be buyers at the deadline. Not selling, is part of the reason we never get to that point. Sure, spending more would likely help, but is not a guarantee. Getting nothing but low comp picks for Bogey was criminal.

Sadly, having lower expectations has likely played a role in my enjoyment level, but the joy goes beyond just watching the pitchers do way better than expected. The D has looked better than April, but has still been an overall joy-killer since then. I'm really enjoying watching our young players do well and or look more promising than they did in February. Wong has been amazing. Abreu has, too. Rafaela needs some work, but overall, he looks more promising, now than last winter. Valdez has seemingly worked out his kinks and even looks a bit better on D. Refsnyder is no spring chicken but has amazed me, and I've been tooting his horn before this year. Duran is shaking of concerns that 2023 was a fluke. This guy is for real. I mentioned that Devers was still young enough to have a career year, and he might be in it, now. DHam and Romy have already outshone all the other back-up middle infielders we've seen since 2021. As inconsistent as our offense has been, I'm not worried about it, all that much, going forward. We need a big RH'd bat, for sure, but that is but one need out of 9 positions. Our positional depth looks very good, and we will soon be adding Mayer, Anthony and Teel to it- yes, all lefties, but still... The future of our pitching staff- top to bottom, may show some holes, but to me, it looks better than it has since going into the 2019 season. It's not as good as the numbers show in 2024, and losing Pivetta, Jansen & martin will hurt, but who here feels worse about these guys than they did in February? Houck Crawford Criswell Slaten Bernardino Weissert The only longer term pitchers who have seen their stock fall are... Bello I Campbell (who is looking great at AAA, now) and who else? Wikelman, Murphy & Walter? We have seen our big three doing well on the farm. We have seen some major steps taken by Perales (before his injury,) Campbell, Lugo, JH Garcia and more. It's hard to be "down" with so much going on that looks bright(er).

I'm not sure why you seem to be assuming Weissert is and will be mediocre. He has a good WHIP (1.15,) which beats the league RP 1.28 WHIP. He wasn't even the main guy in the trade, as Fitts has high hopes on being better than Mediocre, We know who Dugo was and is- barely better than mediocre. I'd rather have Abreu and Ref in RF. I'd rather have 10 years of Weissert + Fitts than 1 year of Dugo on a team like this year's Sox.

I'm never letting one game get me down, and I'm having more fun watching this year's Sox than I did in '22 and '23, but last night was not fun. I guess when we play the Yanks, a well pitched inning does not register like maybe it should. Despite tonight's Criswell v Rodon match-up, I think we have a good shot at a win. I'm not going into this game all depressed.

The thing about NY, is that the fans can turn on a player, very quickly. (Sound familiar?) Dugo has been a success for the Yankees. Every Yankee fan would agree. I do think the issues he had with the Sox have not gone away. At some point, they will resurface, and let's see what happens, then. The other thing about the Dugo trade was the years of control: one. Weissert and Fitts both have 5 years.

There are so many players like Grissom that do end up being total busts, but I am not even close to being convinced he is one of them. He missed ST'ing and battled the flu, but excuses only go so far. Notin's point about his OPS maybe being .676, instead of under .400 can be viewed as another excuse, but in the end, we are talking about just 87 PAs. Many current studs in MLB had longer stretches than this of s***** play. I don't think 87 PAs is a "long time." I'm cutting him more slack, based on the sample size, not anything I've seen with my own eyes. My eyes also see he had a .746 OPS in his first 236 PAs in MLB. That is the larger sample size, so maybe it should hold more weight than the 87 PA one. The fact that Sale is doing so well has created a spotlight that is more like a laser cutter splitting Grissom into a million tiny pieces. I still have pretty high hopes for Grissom, although they are no wherre near where they were, last winter.

It sure looks that way, but with the Dodgers and Mett around, it's hard to know anything, these days.

Not selling in 2022 and 2023 is part of the reason our affairs are so depressing, right now. Knowing now, that the spending was not going to happen in '23 or '24, it shows all the more reason to have done it- as it was one of the few way to improve the team, going forward, without spending. Nobody likes the idea of needing to sell. It sucks even more to be thinking about the possibility over the whole winter before the season even begins. The reality is what it is, however. I don't see wishing on some faraway hopes that squeaking into the last WC slot followed by some glorious playoff run is worth doing nothing or trying to buy at a deadline like we saw in '22 and '23 and look to be coming up to, this year. We got nothing or next to nothing for Bogey, Nate, JD, Wacha, Hill, Duvall, Paxton and maybe more I can't recall. While it's true, sometimes what you get back in deadline trades doesn't work out, to well, we have seen some workout pretty well. Pivetta for Workman & Hembree (2020) Abreu & Valdez for Vazquez (2022) Some non deadline deals that seemed like sell-offs, at the time, have started to show some decent returns (although some names, here, do not come close to matching what we gave up): Wong for Betts and later Weissert (and Fitts) for Dugo, who was part of the Betts trade. Wink (and Gambrell) for Beni DHam for Renfroe (ICampbell for Urias may end up working-maybe not) To me, I'd rather we extend Pivetta to a decent deal than trade him, but of course, we could trade him then re-sign him, as well. I don't see Jansen, O'Neill, Anderson or Martin in our 2025 plans, let alone, beyond. I don't think watching them play here for the last two months of 2024 has a value more than what we can get for them in trade. I do enjoy watching this year's Sox, but it looks like it would take a miracle to reach glory in October. I'd rather hope for 2025 and beyond than a '24 miracle. It sucks that that seems to be out only two choices going on 3 years in a row, and 4 out of the last 5 approaching deadlines, but hoping for that to change seems to be like banging your head against a wall..

It hasn't been an issue at every level or every year, so maybe this is not such a big deal.

Aren't you forgetting... The Yankees SUCK!

The 2020 draft has gotten a lot of criticism, over the year, but without the Anthony pick at #79, the '22 draft was looking pretty sketchy. Not sure a few days makes much of a difference, but Cutter Coffey has exploded. Romero has not done much to redeem himself, but has looked a little better. Other, later picks have done well, but none look destined to rock MLB. 129. Meidroth 99. Dalton Rogers 159. Noah Dean 189. Alex Hoppe Best hope from the later may be #369 Hayden Mullins

Not much fun at all, tonight. Gotta bounce back, next game.

87 PA write-off. Has been worse than pathetic, granted.

Woo lost 8-3 Meidroth homered (.829) Yorke 1-4 (1.106) Lugo 3-4 (1.019) POR lost 13-5 Mayer 3-5 w 2B (.849) Campbell 2-4 w HR & BB (1.175) Teel 1-4 (.862) GRE wom 13-4 Monegro 8Ks and 0BB in 4.0 As reported, Coffey is going nutty. (Up to .812) Bleis 2-4 w BB

So many Bloom targets were never acquired, it makes you wonder. I do think Abreu was a legit target

Just go with the lefty, DHam.

That’s what you said up to Memorial Day

Fangraphs now has DHam at a 1.0 fWAR in just 140 PAs. That's a 4.0 rate. Sox fWAR Leaders bWAR 3.1 Houck 3.0 2.7 Duran 3.6 2.3 Devers 2.1 1.7 Crawford 1.6 1.6 Abreu 1.9 1.5 Wong 1.6 1.1 Slaten o.5 1.0 DHam 1.3 1.0 O'Neill 1.0 0.8 Jansen 0.6 0.7 Refsnyder o.7 0.7 Criswell 0.0 0.7 Bernardino 1.5 0.6 Whitlock 0.9 0.5 Casas o.2 0.4 Bello 0.0 0.4 Booser 0.4 0.2 McGuire 0.6 0.2 Wink 0.0 0.1 Weissert, Martin, Keller & Romy bWAR 0.8 Rafaela

It used to, when we stayed near but below the line. I'm not so sure it matters, this year.

At one game over .500, we sit with the 12th best record in MLB, just... 0.5 from #11 SDP 2.0 from #10 MIN (currently the 3rd WC in the AL) That being said, we are also just 2.5 games ahead of #22/23 PIT & WSH. Lots of teams bunched up around .500 or 4 games below .500.

That is Bello's AAV and Tax hit number, not his actual 2024 salary.

If Houck wins the Cy Young, he may get a big first arb. Duran might get more than I think. How Crawford ends the season could determine a lot. I doubt McGuire gets a big raise, despite it being his last arb year. They don't look at CERA.

Still pre-arbs in 2025: Casas Wong Abreu Slaten Weissert Bernardino Valdez DHam Criswell Grissom Romy Basically, everyone except Devers, Story, Yoshida, Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Bello, Rafaela, Ref (option) and arb guys McGuire (3 of 3), Houck (1 of 3), Duran (1 of 4) and Crawford (1 of 4). That's just 13 of the 26. The rest are pre-arb. Our big 3 prospects will not even be Rule 5 in 2025! These are the Rule 5's: Angel Bastardo Alex Binelas Brainer Bonaci Bryce Bonnin Taylor Broadway Zach Bryant Allan Castro Brendan Cellucci Juan Chacon Nathanael Cruz Theo Denlinger Kelvin Diaz Hunter Dobbins Juan Daniel Encarnacion Albert Feliz Max Ferguson Richard Fitts Michael Fulmer Grant Gambrell Jhostynxon Garcia Bryan Gonzalez Luis Guerrero Francis Hernandez Nathan Hickey Gabriel Jackson Blaze Jordan Niko Kavadas Robert Kwiatkowski CJ Liu Eduardo Lopez Matthew Lugo Elih Marrero Tyler McDonough Tyler Miller Wyatt Mills Yordanny Monegro Juan Montero Wyatt Olds Eddinson Paulino Ronald Rosario Corey Rosier Reidis Sena Chase Shugart Phillip Sikes Karson Simas Adam Smith Nick Sogard Noah Song Luis Talavera Christopher Troye Tyler Uberstine Miguel Ugueto Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jacob Webb Jeremy Wu-Yelland Nick Yorke Ryan Zeferjahn

Houck and Crawford reach their first arbs in 2025, which are usually gross underpays. (Here is a chance to front-end these guys some cash by extending them to 1-2 years beyond their control years, but giving them more cash up front.) Duran is getting his first of 4 arbs, too. We have very few arbs, this year, and most are first years or for a guy like McGuire (3rd year of 3.)