moonslav59

Woo wong big. 3-6 Meidroth w HR 2-6 Valdez w HR & 2B 3-5 Yorke w HR 2-5 Sogard w HR & BB 3-5 Dalbec w 2B 2-4 Alvarez w 3B & BB 0-3 Kavadas w 2BB & SF Gambrell 5 IP, 3H, 1 ER, 2BB, 4K POR won 6-2 I Coffey 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 4K 3-3 Mayer w HR & BB 1-3 Teel w BB 1-4 Anthony w 3B 2-4 Jordan w HR 1-4 Campbell w 2rbi Salem won 6-5 3-4 Anderson w 3B 2-5 Alcantara FCL won 5-3 1-3 w BB Arias 2-4 Nunez 1=2 w BB Riemer DSL Red won 4-0 as Beltre & Payano combined for a no-hitter!

Can they keep up with us? JUN>JUL 24-13 BOS (25-13 since May 31st) 22-19 BAL 18-21 NYY

Slaten might be our next closer.

2023 Deadline trades: Flaherty for Prieto, Showalter & Rom Verlander for Clifford & Gilbert 2022: Luis Castillo for EArroyo, Moore, Marte & Stoudt The Sox traded Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber (tough comp, since he was not a pitcher and was injured.)

I’m sure some top prospects have been traded for 2 month rentals before but for guys like Flaherty, we could probably get him for Monegro or Paulino and Wikelman.

My response was somewhat tongue in cheek, but other than Vladdy's one big season, he has been very good but not great. Take out 2021 and his numbers vs Sox pitching, and what is his OPS? Good but not great. Of course, I'd prefer him over D Smith at 1B for 2024 (and maybe shared DH, with Casas when he returns) and Yoshida at DH in 2025, but that means eating Yoshi's contract- making Valddy very expensive.

Agreed. We should and will not trade a top 6 prospect for a rental, and all the prospects below 6, except maybe pitchers, would not be taking a dent out of the longer term future. Sure, we could trade a mid level prospect and watch them do great, but we have a solid 11-12 everyday players returning for 2025 and 4-6 top prospects who should be ML ready by 2025, so we already look to have bottlenecks at certain positions. Our OF is loaded and LHB centric: 2025 control or longer... L Duran L Abreu R Rafaela (SS/2B) R Refsnyder (2025 only) L Anthony R Campbell R Lugo R Yorke (2B) and maybe Valdez to LF 2026 or later: Bleis, Jh Garcia, Castro, Coffey, Taylor, Yuten, Asencio SS/2B lacks in top quality, but excels in quantity of players/prospects with some promise: Story Rafaela (CF) Mayer Campblell (LF) DHam Grissom Yorke Valdez (LF?) Romy (1B/OF) Meidroth, Paulino, Westbrook, Sogard, Alvarez, McDonough 2026 or beyond: Cespedes, Zanetello, Arias, Romero, Anderson, Alcantara, Nunez, Ravelo C/DH (C: Wong, McGuire '25 only & Teel) Jo Garcia, Hickey, Brannon, Gasper (1B) DH: Valdez, Lugo, Kavadas (1B,) Yorke, Jordan, Encarnacion & J Gonzalez (1B) The only 2 positions we do not have extensive depth happen to be the two positions with top 3 quality players: 3B: Devers 1B: Casas Our pitching depth is thin in the minors, but we have thought that for over 6 years, and we currently have a very nice staff of many homegrown pitchers + pitchers acquired as prospects or recent grads. While it would be great to have a 5 deep OF core on the 26 (Duran, Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu & Campbell,) when you have high need areas, like pitching, it makes sense to trade one. Our middle IF is not top heavy, like the OF is, but we can afford to trade depth for a rental.

How Soon Is Now?

I've been a big supporter of JH for years, and I still think he was the best thing that happened to the Sox in my 50+ years being a fan. I've been saying he spends in cycles, and kept thinking "this will be the uptick year" for a few years, now, and it hasn't happened. I expected he was waiting for the right moment to go large and long, again. I thought after 2021 was a good time, but nope. I thought the foundation was pretty good after 2022 and 2023, too, but nope. Now, I think he's looking at the farm hands that are near ML ready and a solid, balanced everyday group of players plus a bit of a surprise pitching staff defying all odds, and he must be thinking the time is "NOW," or at least will be, this winter, but the cynical side of me beats down the hope and makes me reach the conclusion that "I'll believe it when I see it." The whole "full throttle" thing, although not said by JH, took all bets off the table. The FO has been a sham for 2-3 years- trying to convince the fans that they were trying to keep us competitive through the rebuilding of the foundation. IMO, they were just trying to keep us out of last place, and they failed at even that. I'm still extremely optimistic about the future of this team. The 26 man roster looks very nicely set up for the next 3-6 years. We have a ton of pre-arb and early arb players on the 26. We have some high potential prospects not yet on the 40. We have upcoming budget space to make some big impact additions to areas of need, which will include replacing Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and a RHB (O'Neill and Ref after 2025,) but the big question is, will JH okay increasing the payroll budget? At this point, even spending up to the first line is in question, which to me is sickening, when you see how filthy rich JH is. We should be spending to the second line, at least, for a year- whether it be 2025 or 2026. (My guess is 2026 would be the best timing, in terms of guessing when we should see peak roster projected production, but I'm just taking a stab in the dark.) I hope we do something significant at the deadline. It doesn't have to be earth-shattering, or even involve a top 6 prospect, but we can add 2-3 solid players with blocked prospects ranked #7 or lower. If an opportunity arises where we can add a SP'er with 2.3+ years of control, to help us now and in the next 2+ seasons, I'd love to see it happen, even if it involves losing a top 3 or 2 prospects from #4-9 to get. I doubt it happens, but we have the farm to make offers that can equal or better almost anyone else, unless the team wants a top young pitching prospects, which, sadly, we can not produce. I mentioned 2026 as perhaps "the year," but I hate to think we go through another winter like this last one, thinking "wait till next year" for the 5 straight winters.

So, what would his OPS be without facing Sox pitchers, anymore?

Right. We basically have 4 SP'ers and Criswell. I hate to keep repeating this, but we will need to manage innings on Houck and Crawford, which means less IP/GS or going to a 6 man rotation, which I like. To be a top contender, I think we need: 1. A solid #2/3 type SP 2. An innings eater #4/5 type and make Criswell the long man/7th starter on a 6 man rotation. 3. A RHB (SS, 2B, 1B or by swapping Abreu + prospects for a better RF'er who bats RH'd) Do I think we add 2 SP'ers? No. If we add just one, it better be a damn good one who also gives innings, then add a pen arm, as we will need it.

The Sox open the 2025 season in Texas (4 games), starting March 27th and then head to BAL for 3 games (day off after game 1.) They come home to play STL for 3, then TOR. The Sox end the season with these 18 games: 3 @ OAK (after 3 @AZ) 3 v NYY Day Off 3 v OAK 3 @ TBR Day Off 3 @ TOR 3 v DET

The signings have begun... Chase Burns agreed to terms and will receive a record signing bonus of $9.25 million, sources told MLB.com. It surpassed the $9.2 million last year's first overall pick, pitcher Paul Skenes, received from the Pirates. (I think his slot money was about $9.8M.)

2024 IP and Career Highs 117 Houck (106 in '23 and 119 in A+ 2018) 113 Crawford (129 in '23 and 144 in A-/A+ in 2018) 90 B Bello (157 in '23 and 118 in A 2019) 58 Criswell (33 as RP in '23 and 117 in A+/AA in 2019 & 2021) 73 Wink in AAA+MLB (112 in AA/AAA 2021 and 127 in 2019 A) (Pivetta is on pace for a lower IP total than 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 & 2023) We have 67 games left, which is about 13 starts per SP, and at 5 IP/GS, that adds 65 IP to their totals. That might project to... 185 Houck (55 more than his career high in professional baseball) 180 Crawford (50 more) 155 Bello (equals his high) 125 Criswell (Barely passes his high) Then, if we make the playoffs, maybe 5-20+ more IP per SP'er. It would be nice to add another solid innings eater and go to a 6 man rotation to finish 2024.

You make great points, but it is very hard to win without near top pitching. Our staff is doing very well, this year, and it's no coincidence we are in the race, as a result, but we have too many SP'ers nearing or already over their career high in IP, and we have 66 games to go before even thinking about them giving us quality playoff innings. We lose Pivetta, this winter, and although he has been a 4/5 SP'er with us since late 2020, he's been our best innings eater, by far. We also lose our best closer since Uehara. One can say we got lucky with the homegrown pitchers we have, now, and I don't see the next Houck or Crawford joining the staff in 2025, so where do we get a couple pitchers to keep us in the top 10 in MLB, minimum? I agree, pitchers are major risks, but we will be having duplicate values at several everyday positions from 2025 to beyond 2026. We can't play everybody, even if 2 are hurt all year. Wong & McGuire ('25) then Teel ('26) Casas Story, Mayer, Campbell plus DHam/Yorke/Cespedes Devers Duran Rafaela, Anthony Abreu, Refsnyder (to 2025) then Bleis (2026 and beyond) Yoshida, Valdez/Lugo Even if we dump Yoshida, Valdez and lose Ref, I'm looking at 13-14 players for 9 slots and a couple key sub roles. We can trade 1-3 good players for pitching. If Campbell plays OF, we'll have 5 OF'ers for 2026, not counting Bleis (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell.) If Campbell plays 2B, we'll have 3 middle IF'er (Story, Mayer, Campbell) and 3+ offering decent depth, not counting Cespedes & Zanetello (DHam, Yorke, Romy, plus Meidroth.) If we lose Yoshida, we might have Valdez, Lugo, Jo Garcia, Jordan, Yorke, Meidroth. Maybe Campbell ends up at DH.

Then, why isn't MVP's name on the list?

It's not like teams aren't paying attention to recent events, but I'm also not so sure a player's value changes much over a 60 PA sample size- good or bad.

I think we all would, but until we see JH spend again, I'm done hoping, wishing or expecting it to happen. Also, the best option might be to do both.

What would it take to get Skubal? He has 2 arb years left. BTV has his value at 100. If JH would open his wallet, we could lessen the return package by taking on Baez's mega bum deal ($73M/2 after 2024) or someone line Canha, who will be owed $4M at the deadline, but the Baez deal is not going to be taken. My guess is it would take ... Anthony or Keel + Mayer of Campbell + A prospect or two from below #6. or Anthony, Mayer, Keel or Campbell + 2 from Abreu (if Anthony not taken) Cespedes, Bleis, Fitts, Sandlin or Perales

I assume this is your no trade list. LOL

Agreed. I think he has 1 or 2 hot streaks in him.

I don't have full access to the BTV site, but here are some trade values of some Sox players: 54.2 Mayer 53.2 Anthony 31.4 Teel 25.4 Abreu 20.4 Criswell 18.1 K Campbell 13.3 Bleis 12.1 Bernardino 10.5 Winckowski 8.9 Cespedes 7.0 Rafaela 5.7 O'Neill & Perales 4.2 Romero 3.8 Yorke 3.7 I Campbell 3.2 E R-C 2.7 Wikelman 2.5 Meidroth 2.3 Castro 2.1 Fitts, Monegro & Dobbins 2.0 Mullins & Jordan 1.9 Jo & Jh Garcia 1.7 Penrod 1.6 Valdez & Bastardo 1.6 Paez 1.5 Lugo 1.3 Rogers 1.1 Guerrero 0.8 Mata -25 Yoshida A few targets? 100 Skubal 58.5 Crochet 39.5 Chisholm 36.4 Roberts 33.8 C Mize 21.6 Rooker 20.9 Fedde 8.5 Flaherty 6.1 Vlad 5.3 Kikuchi 4.8 Nate 3.3 Gomber -2.4 Canha

Yes, correct. My bad.

And SEA is not a lock. Their run differential is +19 to Texas' +9.

My guess is others on the list violate said rule.