moonslav59

MLBTR reports... Veteran left-hander Lucas Luetge has opted out of his minor league deal with the Red Sox and become a free agent

Agreed. We might have swung and missed on many, but signing 3-4 more guys like Criswell could have easily been done. I know you have been out in front on this, for years and even into the 2024 season. I agree on the mistake of counting Whitlock as SP'er depth. I'm not sure counting Wink as SP'er depth was a good idea, either. There is some debate over the winter SP'er depth chart rankings, especially who was #5 and 6, Houck or Whitlock, but here is my view on what it was: 1. Giolito (lost for season in time to be able to replace him) 2. Bello 3. Pivetta 4. Crawford 5. Whitlock 6. Houck (was actually very decent "depth," but only if you accept Whit as a true #5.) 7. Winckowski 8. Criswell 9. Anderson 10. Murphy & Mata (Walter) were very questionable as SP'er depth Farm (not all ML ready or healthy) Gambrell, Fitts, J Alexander, Van Belle, Wikelman, Penrod, Perales (We added Keller in May and Paxton in Aug.)

Well, when you look at my list of our highest paid pitcher signings since the Sale and Nate extensions, which both we not great or even good, one can understand the reluctance to keep throwing money at pitching, only to watch them fail or get hurt. Of course, you "get what you pay for," and when paying $10M/1 for a pitcher, what is expected? Had we spent the Story and Yoshida money on long term pitching deals, and guessed rightly, we'd be much better off, but what if we guessed wrongly, like we mostly have been since and including Sale's deal? I'm not making excuses. I think we should have spent way more on pitching than hittine, especially since we don't draft a lot of pitchers or develop them well. This HAS BEEN a big mistake for 6 years. (Yes, I count 2019, because we did not replace Kimbrel and Kelly, in kind.)

Unless a pitcher has been lights out all year and has one bad game, usually a real bad game does make me worry about the next start, and vice versa: a really good last game often brings hope a pitcher is "getting it together," except of course, with Pivetta.

Criswell was hurt and rehabbed at Woo. Wink was apparently not following the coaches plan and was demoted for it, but I'm not so sure this was the reason or only reason. We have Martin, Slaten and Hendriks due back, soon, unless they have a setback. This may or may not help. One has to think, they can't be much worse than what we have, now, but when you consider we added Paxton, Garcia and Sims, this totals 6 pitchers on a 13 man pitching staff. Their additions could be a big help, a minor help or more of the same. On paper, they look better than ... Anderson Weissert Keller, Horn, Wingenter, YRam and others. It's hard to imagine that 3-4 or more of these 6 additions cannot do better than this: Last 28 Days' Numbers (listed in order of most IP) 4.97 Bello 4.97 Crawford 5.09 Houck 5.73 Pivetta 5.00 Kelly 6.75 Jansen 5.14 Wink 4.50 Anderson 10.13 Bernardino 11.81 Horn 27.00 Wingenter 13.50 Y Ramirez Not listed (IP rank) 5. Criswell 2.84 6. Weissert 3.86 (demoted) 10. Booser 1.50

Another popular (non-Weaver) saying is that "a SP'er is only as good as his last start." That is scary as hell!

The budget was only part of the problem. 1. The little money we have spent of pitching has been largely misspent: $55M/6 Bello extension: TBD, but not off to a good start. $39M/2 Giolito: Missed first season, totally $32M/2 Jansen: was a very good signing by Bloom. $19M/4 Whitlock extension: TBD (2 years to go) $19M/2 Barnes extension: Bust (traded w cash for Bleier) $18M/2 Martin: started off as a great signing for '23, but... $10M/1 Kluber: Bust for '23. $10M/1 Richards: Bust for '22. $10M/2 Hendriks: was more about 2025 not 2024. $10M/2 Paxton: worked out okay. We did better with the $3-9M deals: $7M/1 Wacha $6M/1 Perez I $5M/1 R Hill $5M/1 Perez II $4M x 2 Diekman (unloaded contract for McGuire) $3M Strahm (one of Bloom's best "bargain deals.") 2. We have not spent much on hitting, either, but it looks like we'd have done better spending it all on pitching, assuming we spent it better. (The Yoshida and Story signings jump off the page. Renfroe, Turner, Duvall and taking on O'Neill's contract not so much.) 3. Winters are the time to improve the staff and staff depth- not the deadline. The deadline should only be needed to fill gaps caused by multiple injuries or unexpected downturns by key players.

These are the pitchers we added or should see added to the 26 before September: Paxton Garcia Sims Martin Slaten Hendriks Maybe Weissert, I Campbell or Keller get another look.

I'm 100% on board with the idea that it was a major swing and miss by the FO on not adding more pitching during the winter, when it is actually cheaper. I think almost all of us agreed on that. After it was know Gio was out for the year, adding nothing can rightfully be called "moronic." On the surface, this didn't look horrible, last winter, but it still looked woefully short on depth: Lost from 2023: IP (team ranking) Pitcher ERA 103 (5th) Sale 4.30 96 (6th Paxton 4.50 55 (9th) Kluber 7.04 (addition by subtraction) 48 (12th) Murphy 4.91 (to injury) 47 (13th) Schreiber 3.86 More additions by subtractions that combined for 190 IP! 31 (15th) Bleier 5.28 30 Llovera 5.46 27 K Ort 6.26 23 Walter 6.26 (to injury/farm) 21 Braiser 7.29 18 Garza 7.36 11 Joely 6.55 (to farm) 8 Bearclaw 12.91 21 combined Dermody, Scott, Faria, Lamet This is nearly 550 IP lost from 2023- about half of those IP were at replacement level or worse, so we were looking at the need to replace 250 or so IP with equal or better IP than Sale, Paxton & Schreiber (about a 4.30 ERA combined.) Brez & Co. added this: Giolito: expected to get 175+ IP but got zero Criswell: viewed as SP depth and has done well w 71 IP at 3.80. Anderson: viewed as SP depth and did not do well w 52 IP at 4.85. Slaten: was maybe viewed as the 4th or 5th best RP, but became our #2 before injury (42 IP at 3.38) Weissert: was expected to make the 8 man pen. Was demoted (47 IP/4.24) I Campbell showed signs of being pretty good w SEA but not here. Booser was one of the few bright spots. Hendriks: expected to join the team in AUG, but looks like maybe Sept. Keller, Horn, Uwasawa, Luetge, Mills plus more add-ons after the year started. Farm pitching depth added, this winter (not ML ready): Sandlin, Fitts, Benitez, Judice This fell way short of what we needed, and still need, now.

Sox OPS Leaders: .996 Devers (424 is second most PAs on team) .909 Refsnyder (224 is 10th most) .901 O'Neill (342 is 4th most on team) .857 Casas (90) .854 Duran 509 is the most on team) .830 Abreu (287 is 6th most on team) .809 Wong (325 is 5th most on team) .756 Romy (114) .722 Yoshida (243) .720 Smith (247) .712 Rafaela (407 is 3rd most) .678 DHam (247) (1.083 Jansen w Sox in 12 PAs)

Injury update (per MLB.com): Hendriks: expected to throw three live batting practice sessions, the first of which is scheduled for Tuesday in either Kansas City or at Triple-A Worcester. If he makes it through those three sessions without any setbacks, Hendriks will then start a Minor League rehab assignment with hopes of being in Boston's bullpen at some point in September. O'Neill: was not in the lineup on Saturday against Cody Bradford due to an illness that could keep him out of the lineup until Wednesday's finale of a three-game series against the Royals. Martin: Martin threw a 35-pitch bullpen session on Aug. 3, and is expected to make a Minor League rehab appearance on Aug. 7, which should position him for a return to the active roster on Aug. 9. Slaten: will extend his long toss progression to 120 feet on Aug. 5. "He turned the corner this week," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora. Grissom: continued his Minor League rehab assignment on Aug. 3, driving in two runs for Triple-A Worcester. His assignment expires on Aug. 8, at which time he will either be activated by the Red Sox or optioned to Worcester. Casas: looked strong in his return to action on Aug. 3, drilling a double as part of a three-RBI performance. It remains to be seen how long Casas will need for his rehab assignment. Story: Alex Cora was recently encouraged when he watched Story hit soft toss, and hasn't ruled out the possibility of the shortstop returning late in the season. Mata" placed on 60 Day IL. Once Mata is healthy, the Red Sox will have to activate him or designate him for assignment. Whitlock: Whitlock will not pitch again until some point in 2025 after he had his UCL repaired by Dr. Jeffrey Dugas in Birmingham, Ala., on May 30. On the bright side, the righty avoided Tommy John surgery and instead underwent an internal brace repair, a procedure that has become more frequent for pitchers with UCL injuries. Murphy: underwent successful reconstruction of the left ulnar collateral ligament (elbow). Dr. Keith Meister performed the surgery at Texas Metroplex Institute for Sports Medicine & Orthopedic Surgery in Arlington. Giolito: was moved to the 60-day injured list on March 24. He underwent surgery to repair his right elbow ulnar collateral ligament on March 12 after two Grapefruit League starts (4 1/3 innings). Looks like we might start getting some help, soon and later this month into September. When Casas is ready, it's a no-brainer. He becomes the starting 1Bman, and My guess is Romy is demoted or Smith DFA'd. When Martin returns, he will likely work his way up to high leverage situations as soon as he shows he can do it. (Slaten, too.) Hendriks will likely need time to work into an important 2024 role, and I'm not sure there is enough. Surely, he will get a chance, if there are no setbacks. The Grissom situation is hard to predict. He has options, so we don't need to call him up, when he is ready, but my guess is he will, as long as he looks healthy. Assuming Casas, Martin, Slaten, Hendriks and Grissom all get healthy, could this be our 26 man roster by September? SP: Houck, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello, Crawford RP: Jansen, Martin, Garcia, Slaten, Sims, Criswell, Wink, Hendriks (to AAA: Kelly, Bernardino, Booser) C: Wong & Jansen 1B: Casas & Smith 2B: DHam-Grissom 3B: Devers SS: Rafaela (& DHam) LF: O'Neill-Refsnyder CF: Duran (Rafaela) RF: Abreu-O'Neill DH: Yoshida Line up: v RHP 1. L Duran CF 2. L Abreu RF 3. R O'Neill LF 4. L Devers 3B 5. L Casas 1B 6. L Yoshida DH 7. R Wong C 8. L DHam 2B 9. R Rafaela SS vs LHPs 1. L Duran CF 2. R Refsnyder LF 3. R O'Neill RF 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Wong C 6. L Casas 1B 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Grissom 2B 9. R Rafaela SS (Romy & Sogard to AAA)

We had more than enough chances.

They all are. Robo umps are the only answer for balls & strikes.

He's over .900, now... passing O'Neill.

Westbrook 3-3 w HR and BB Meidroth 4BBs!

I was beginning to hope maybe he was turning things around.

On the farm, today... Westbrook 3-4 w HR & BB Casas 2-4 w 2B & BB Meidroth w 4 BB!!!! Alvarez 3-3 Grissom 1-5 w 2RBI POR is up 5-3, late Sandlin 4IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 6K Teel 1-3 w HR & BB Anthony 1-4 Jordan 1-3 w HR and BB GRE is tied after 5. Bleis homered SAL won 6-5 in 10 (game 1) Yuten 4-5 and a homer shy of the cycle. Brannon 2-5

He does pretty well hitting bad pitches, but that last one was a doozie!

Yup. He's done okay as a rookie.

Refsnyder is sure proving he belongs! This is the third year in a row, he has been excellent vs LHPs. Only 15 batter in all of MLB have more PAs in the last 3 years v LHPs and a higher OPS. (And this was before tonight!)

Slow and bad D for a DH is too funny.

Ref sure makes losing O'Neill this winter, a little easier.

He sure has! And, not just for 1 year. He has been almost a straight platoon-type player, but this year he's at .760 v RHPs. Our team struggles vs LHPs, and only 15 batters in all of MLB have more PAs v LHPs and a higher OPS than Ref since 2022. He was at .910 before the homer, today (320 PAs) The next closest is Devers at #91 (.771.)

Some felt Houck was the 6th starter, and Criswell was maybe the 7th or 8th SP'er on the SP'er depth chart. If this is true, our top 5 failed more than out depth. Gio: out Bello: worst SP'er, this year Pivetta: inconsistent Crawford: pretty good Whitlock: 4 starts then out for year

On D, for sure. On D: Rafaela >>> anyone else in CF