moonslav59

I did say "I can't see us getting both," but I do think, if we lose out on Soto, the fans will settle for nothing less than one of the two. My guess is Fried and I'm thinking maybe they go with Adames or Bregman. The major issue I have with signing a 3Bman is this: I love the idea of moving Devers to share 1B/DH with Casas, and adding one of Bregman or Adames does the trick, but with Yoshida entrenched at DH, trading Casas would likely happen. To me, losing Casas negates the gains made by improving 3B defense. I really like Tristan's bat, too much. This is a big reason I have spent so much time exploring ways to dump some of Yoshida's contract, even if it means taking on a bigger contract in return, but for a position of need (P or 3B) so we can keep Casas. I don't see this as a solution: C: Wong & ____ 1B/DH: Devers/Casas 2B: Campbell/Mayer (DHam/Grissom) SS: Story/Mayer 3B: Bregman/Adames/Arenado LF: Yoshida/Refsnyder CF: Duran RF: Anthony/Campbell (Trade Abreu and or Rafaela for pitching)

One guy I hoped we'd sign, if no Scott, is Jeff Hoffman. Apparently, he is about to re-sign with PHI. He has really improved over the last 3 years. First 7 years combined: 5.96 ERA/5.49 FIP/1.61 WHIP/1.8 K:BB (8.2 K/9 to 4.5 BB/9) 2022 (age 29): 3.83/4.30/1.41/1.96 (9.1 to 4.6) 2023 (age 30): 2.41/2.57/0.92/3.63 (11.9 to 3.3) 2024 (age 31): 2.17/2.52/0.96/5.56 (12.1 to 2.2) I doubt we'll sign Scott, and with Holmes gone, I'm not seeing much left, except via trade. Maybe Estevez could work out?

Unless we sign Scott or trade for a top closer, I don't see that much top pen help on the FA market. It's a lot cheaper to sign Scott than a second top SP, so it makes sense to sign Fried and Scott over Burnes and Fried, in terms of budget cost. In theory, we could stay under the second tax line with this: $30M x 7 Burnes $27M x 7 Fried $17M x 5 Scott $6M x 1 Carson Kelly (This would also push Crawford to the pen for another improvement there.) I just can't see us getting both pitching prizes, but with the money apparently available for Soto, it makes me wonder. Probably, pie-in-the sky might be Fried, Adames, Hoffman, C Kelly.

Yes.

Right, you are. Thanks for setting me straight.

I think all the minor league rotations look very interesting and mostly promising. We don't need all to step up a notch or two- just 2-3 per level.

MLBTR is saying the Soto deal may reach $700M (beating Ohtani's $461M) and go to 14 years (one more than Harper's record 13 year deal.) Nit sure about referrals or opt-outs. $50M x 14 seems beyond an "overpay," and if we could get Burnes at $245M/7, Fried at $210M/7 and Scott at $80M/5, we'd be saving $70M. However, the AAV would be $76M v $50M.

Soto, Burnes, Bregman, Manaea and O'neill but not Fried.

I thought I read somewhere that SEA was talking to STL about Arenado. To me the inclusion of Yoshida would be the sticking point in the trade, and it one big plus for the Sox to get rid of most of his contract. Castillo may be in decline, but I'd rather pay him and Garver than Yoshida. Helsley seals the deal for BOS. I've been thinking more and more about Pablo Lopez, who seems like a better pitcher, going forward, than Castillo, AND he pitches for a team looking to trade salary. I've suggested deals for Lopez and Jhoan Duran, but I have no idea who MN likes or what they need. My guess is, they would want near ML ready top prospects, like... Mayer, Abreu, Priester, Fitts and Cespedes for the two. That may not be enough. They might insist on including Teel and adding Vaz or Jeffers to the return.

Garver is a salary dump. They'd hand him away for no return. Castillo is aging and showing signs of decline. His value has risen and FA costs for similar pitchers are coming in above expectations.. They need a 3Bman and middle IF'er, badly. They'd get Arenado & Mayer, along with Fitts. The money is close to even, especially if we add $5M a year to the offer. (COL is already paying $5M a year for Arenado.) We may have to improve the offer, and I'm sure harmony would dislike the offer. I'm not sure STL likes the offer either. I was working off the framework of an offer suggested in some article. Adding Yoshida to the deal could break any deal, even with a chink of money included or by taking away Arenado's larger contract. Helsley is real good, but he has just 1 year of control. If STL is looking to rebuild, trading Arenado and Helsley makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure if they like Cespedes and Arias. Maybe they like Bleis, JH Garcia or Romero. Maybe they insist on Mayer or Teel. Maybe this would be more to the liking of SEA & STL: TO BOS: Castillo, Helsley, Garver TO SEA: Arenado (+$5M/yr from BOS), Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts TO STL: Yoshida (+5M/yr from BOS), Arias, Priester, Cespedes (Maybe Abreu can be worked into the deal and subtract a prospect or two.)

The good thing is, Soto should make his choice, soon, so many will still be on the board to pivot to. I'm guessing we are already talking to the agents to Burnes, Fried, Bregman, Adames and hopefully Scott, Hoffman or Estevez.

Not a single player has signed, so far, that is the best choice at a position we need. I'm pretty sure the 2nd and third best chocies are still on the board, right now, except maybe catcher, as D Jansen & Higgy signed, already. SP: Burnes & Fried (Snell signed) RP: Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Holmes signed as SP) Big Bat or best RHB that fits: Soto, Bregman, Adames, Teoscar (no big bat signing, so far- not even Alfonso or Walker) Even most of the best second tier players are still on the board: Flaherty, Nate, Manaea, Santander & O'Neill I sure hope, Snell, Kikuchi, Severino and Holmes were not our Plan A guys.

Some of these placements are a stretch, but here are players that can play at various positions: C Wong, Gasper, Teel 1B Casas, (Devers,) Romy, Wong, Gasper 2B Campbell, DHam, Grissom, (Story,) Mayer, Meidroth, EValdez, Sogard, Wong/Gasper SS Story, Romy, Mayer, DHam, Meidroth, Grissom 3B Devers, Grissom, (Campbell,) Romy, Meidroth, Eaton LF Duran, (Anthony, Abreu, ) Refsnyder, Campbell CF Anthony, Rafaela, (Duran, Abreu,) Campbell RF Abreu (Anthony,) Campbell, Refsnyder DH: Yoshida (Casas, Devers) Refsnyder, EValdez

We might have to pay SEA $5M a year, too.

I'd be just as happy with Burnes and Fried vs Soto. The AAV would be higher, but the risk is spread over two guys and for about half the years, although it could be 7 yrs + 7 yrs to 14 yrs. I seriously doubt we can or will ever be able to score the two best SP'ers in one winter, especially when the drop off to the next tier seems pretty big. It might be hard for us to just get this: Burnes or Fried Scott Bregman, Adames or Teoscar Carson Kelly or Elias Diaz (C on 1 year deal)

Top FAs still on the market that may fit with the Sox. A++ Soto A+ Burnes and Fried A Bregman and Adames (move Devers to 1B/DH) A Scott A- Flaherty, Manaea, Eovaldi B+ Hoffman, Estevez B+ Teoscar, Santander, O'Neill B Minter, Yates, Kittredge B- Pivetta, Heaney, Quintana B- Alonso, Walker (Casas to DH or trade) Did I miss anyone?

Yes, that is clearly what I said and meant. That's what I'm all about and always have been.

Holmes to Mets. $38M/3 (a bit more than what MLBTR projected.)

Bieber re-signs with CLE. TWard cleared waivers and stays in BAL system.

Too bad only 2-3 can actually field their IF position well.

I feel the same way, but I have to say, I can't help myself on the hope train. My expectation train was derailed.

I think we trade Abreu- with or without Soto, and it will likely be for pitching, not a RHB. I think Campbell might be the RHB we need.

Okay, but my issue was only over the two steps ahead comment. I'll agree they have been at least 2 steps ahead of the Sox, since 2018, but not every team- not even one step with some. They've had more regular season success than almost everyone, except maybe Houston, but the time frame chosen has a lot to do with any rankings by "steps." They get the FAs they want. In that sense, they could be viewed as several steps ahead of everyone or all but a couple teams (not HOU.) BTW, I do think 2020 counts, but it does not carry the exact same weight as a full season champ. If you take away Houston's ring during their cheat year, that opens up a can of worms on other teams that cheated, too. Going by rings, only BOS: 1 in 7 years. 4 in 21 years LAD: 2 in 5 years. 2 in 36. HOU: 2 in 8 years. 2 in forever. (7 straight ALCS in these 8 years) NYY: 1 in 16 years. 5 in 29 years. ATL: 1 in last 4 years, 1 in 29 years TEX: 1 in 2 years. 1 in forever. PHI

I agree, and despite our issues against LHPs and the loss of O'Neill, I think our offense will be fine. We also have 3-5 top prospects, all of whom are non pitchers, looking very close to ML readiness. Most have a very nice offensive profile, although only Campbell and Meidroth bat righty. I also think we could probably make a sideways move, by trading a LHB for a RHB of near equal abilities, except with more advantageous splits vs lefties. I doubt Devers hits .686 vs LHPs, next season. (He was at .824 in '23. Casas has a pretty nice .772 OPS v LHPs and missed most of '24. I hate to put a lot of trust and hopes into a Story return, but he could make a big difference on D and O v LHPs.

Good to see you back, Thunder. Nice post.