moonslav59

How open is ATL to trading Murphy. They will not hand him away. How much they like Story or Mayer is likely the main stumbling block or an impetuous to make the deal. Who else might be part of the deal could be the no or go aspect of a possible trade. They may not want 2 players from the 40, unless we take a second player from theirs, so maybe Cespedes, Bleis, Sandlin or Arias might be needed to complete a deal. Story, Cespedes & Mullins for Murphy? Mayer, Cespedes & Mullins for Murphy and some cash? I think BTV has Murphy with a plus value of about 3, so giving up Mayer would be a gross overpay, by himself. We could ask for more. Story is underwater, so maybe we'd have to include money or better prospects to get Murphy.

If we see Anthony as an equal or better RF option over Abreu, then adding Cease would be a plus. (Campbell can also play OF.) My philosophy has always been to beef up the top of the rotation and improve the weakest links. I think we already did about as much as can be expected on upgrading the rotation (Crochet, Beuhler, Gio> Pivetta,) and so that leaves looking to improve our weakets areas: Closer, having Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock and Slaten as our 4 top set-up men makes that area much better, too. Catcher; mostly defensively RHB: could be a catcher, if we find a way to take a team into trading a top flight catcher. (I don't think Bregman "fixed" the RHB issue, but he helped.) Havin just 2-3 weak areas is pretty damn good. One addresses half of the catcher issue (just defense) and the other has 4 pitchers somewhat capable of stepping into the closer role. (Gio might be another closer option.) This looks like a pretty solid team, to me, but I must be a homer, because we are still ranked 13th to 18th in most projectiosns.

I acn certainly see Crawford's numbers improving with SEA. Maybe Casillo's decline by the move to BOS. Maybe not. To me, the big gain for BOS is minimizing the cost of dumping Yoshida by getting a better player than Crawford in return. Is Castillo worth the added budget money? I'm not sure. If some reports are correct, adding Castillo would put us over the tax line, when we are just under it, now. That may hurt future plans on spending in '26 and beyond. Again, I'd rather trade Crawford and others for a catcher or lockdown closer than another SP'er, but I think the upgrade to Castillo is worth it. I also think Yoshia's slot on the 40 would be improved upon by adding Campbell or Anthony. (notin is right in pointing out, we can option Yoshida and add them anyway, but we'd still be paying Yoshida, not Castillo.)

Okay. The best roster construction has Bregman at 3B, Campbell or DHam-Romy at 1B and Devers and Casas on a pair-share at 1B/DH. Isn't this also "roster construction?" Adding Bregman was constructive and is most constructive when he plays 3B, because he helps construct a better defensive team without hurting the offense construction, as it means Campbell or DHam-Romy play, instead of Rafaela (or Yoshida, if we sit our $18M man.) Sounds like optimizing roster construction, to me. Thanks for the assistance in making my point. 🤣

I'd love adding Cease, but the one and done part scares me away. His cost would be huge, and we'd be narrowing our window towards 1 year. Our biggest need is a catcher and closer. Our biggest strength is our rotation and its depth. While, I'm never against improving our rotation at or near the top, this seems like going in the wrong direction.

I can understand people not agreeing with my belief that last year's team felt like it was better than a .500 team, but even using the .500 2024 team as the comp, the amount of additions made vs the subtractions, looks very promising to me. The players returning from injuries may be replace by other players or the same ones being hurt in 2025, but we had some very kep players out or playing hurt for long periods of time in 2024. Certainly, we could see the same of more in '25, but 2024 seemed excessive. Gio & Hendriks missed the full season. Story, Whitlock & Casas missed big chunks. Devers played hurt and missed a few weeks. Lesser knowns missed time, too, but not excessively so. These returning players, alone, could easily make up for the losses of O'Neill, Pivetta, Martin and the Jansens. When you factor in the losses or fringe players, the losses of these other players does not look so catastrophic. EValdez .633 in 223 PAs, DSmith .706 in 278 PAs had more PAs than O'Neill in 2024, but that is rarely mentioned. We also lost .575 in 158 by McGuire, .410 by Dalbec in 93 and a few others with 20-90 PAs. I think the overall loss of players on offense and defense, combined is an addition by subtraction, despite all the dingers lost by Tyler. The loss of Pivetta, Jansen and Martin may not be fully replaced by just returning injured player, but Whitlock, Gio & Hendriks can take a massive chunk out of their losses. We also may see more from Fitts, Priester, Criswell and Fulmer. I think one could call the healthy returns of all injured 2024 players as equalling the loss of players, good and bad, from the 2024 roster. New injuries in 2025 have to be expected, and that would have to be filled by the folloing additions to the 2025 roster. Crochet & Buehler to the rotation Chapman & Wilson in the pen. Bregman is the line-up and on D. Sandoval possible joining in August. IMO, this has been a clear plus winter- something we have not seen since the DD days.

That's what the "Company" stands for in "Brez & Co."

Maybe it has, but clearly the language has changed. Saying, "We'll talk about it later," sounds like no decision has been made, and earlier, Cora sounded more like Devers was the starting 3Bman. A few weeks ago, Cora said, "Raffy Devers is our third baseman. Alex was a GG at 3B and we all know that, [but]... he needed to play 3B. I always envisioned Alex as a GG second baseman. His size, the way he moves--it felt kind of like- you will be a second baseman." Cora has also sais, "I guarantee" I have not had any conversations with Devers over moving "off 3B. I don't know where that comes from." Everyone is free to interpret what Cora says, but to me, he sounds more open to the idea of moving Devers, now, than he did before. Nobody knows what the ultimate choice will be, and it might all depend on how Campbell looks, this spring. The tell-tale sign will be, if we see Devers with a 1Bman's mitt, this spring, although, he could be moved to DH and have nothing to do with 1B. I'm keeping an open mind, but I clearly have a strong opinion on where Bregman should play, regardless of Campbell's situation.

Sox management avoided any longer term deals, and with a possible work stoppage ahead, this might be a big savings for them. That being said, Brez & Co. added some of the top players, this winter. We added the best player traded : Crochet. We added the second highest AAV in Bregman. We added the 13th highest AAV in Buehler. We added #41 AAV in Chapman. In a sense, we added Gio who would have been #16 in AAV, this year. We also added Hendriks, Wilson, Narvaez and some minor league depth. We lost O'Neill, K Jansen, Martin, D Jansen/McGuire and some others that could be viewed as additions by subtractions. I gotta give props to Brez & Co. for this winter.

We all realize words have different meanings to some vs others, but it seemed pretty clear to me that no choice has been made, yet. “We’ll talk about that later on,” Cora said when asked where Bregman will play, as relayed by Cotillo. “Right now, there’s a lot of stuff going on as far as we’re going to be roster-wise. We’ll make the decision when we have to make it… He’s a Gold Glove third baseman. He hasn’t played second base in the big leagues. I do believe he can be a Gold Glove second baseman, too. There’s other stuff that comes into play as far as roster construction and what’s better for the team and what can be the best lineup.”

Agreed, most of the players I mentioned are not on the block, and we'd have to blow that team away with an offer to convince them to trade. I doubt Gio and Whitlock will go to the 60. Gio is supposed to be ready in february and Whitlock in March, maybe early April. Perales and Murphy are sure bets. We would also likely ship 2-3 forty man roster players for Mason. I doubt ATL wants 2-3, as their roster is set and deep. They might take one plus Mayer and another prospect for Murphy. These trades I am suggesting are super longshots. I realize that, but to me, the window is open, now, so max it out. We can hold off adding Fulmer, until we need him on the 26. We may wait to add one or two to the 60, until we get a better idea where our top needs are, and in case of injuries, like Crawford or Bello's. The Campbell decision may have already been made, but they are waiting to do it, until all the information is in. A couple key injuries could prolong the chocie to promote him or Anthony (or Fulmer.) We have some nice chocies to make, ahead of us.

To me, the news that no decisions have been made on where Bregman will play was almost as meaningful as the Bregman signing, itself. I just don't see a $40M value for Bregman at 2B. We are a way better team with Bregman at 3B, Devers at 1B/DH and Campbell or DHam-Romy at 2B. By the middle or end of the season, we could see this: 1. L Duran LF/CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Campbell 2B 6. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder LF 7. R Story SS 8. L Anthony CF/RF 9. R Wong or Narvaez C Bench: Rafaela, Narvaez, Ref or Abreu, DHam or Romy I'm not sure how anyone can view this line-up as average or worse. I also think this defense moves us from 29th or 30th to near 15th, assuming health for Story, Bregman, Duran, Abreu and a few others. (Rafaela provides late inning defense, too.)

We can't believe anything these guys say, and even trying to read between the lines gets too complex. These guys think they have built a playoff contender while keeping the strong farm mostly intact. I have to admit, we do look way better, now than before 2023 and 2024. Good enough? Hard to say. I think we are good enough to make the playoffs, but most services say no or too close to call. I'd like to see us make one more major trade, but I seriously doubt we do. We do have some areas of depth strength we coudl trade from and some duplicated values, here and there, but having depth is a value, too. To me, if we could add a Sean Murphy, William Contreras, Mason Miller or even a one and done Helsley, we'd be clear playoff faves and maybe even a top 2-3 AL ranked team. (Not happening, sadly.)

Out of 146 SP'ers with 210+ IP since 2022, Luis Castillo places.... 20th in fWAR (9.4, just behind Fried, Gilbert and Strider) Solid #1 number. 37th in ERA- at 85 (near Glasnow, Cease, Strider) Solid #2 39th in FIP 3.63 (making him a solid #2 here) 28th in K-BB% at 19.3% (near Burnes, Cease and Gallen) #1 number. He's been a solid 1/2 for 3 years. He may be slipping due to age, but he's still a solid #2, in my book. Anyway, the trade is not happening, and I'd rather trade for an area of need and not to upgrade an already plus rotation. I think we should look for a major upgrade at catcher, especially since we just traded Teel. A closer would be nice, but I doubt we trade for one.

I still see Castillo as a solid #2 type SP'er, so it is more than a bump of our #5 SP'er. I see Bello as a 3/4, Gio as a 4/5 with possibilities of sucking, and Crawford as a 4/5/6. The only reason Castillo would not be our #2 is because we have Crochet and Houck. I guess I like him a lot more than you do. I realize the age issue and added money would put us clearly over the first tax line, but I think getting value for Yoshida is worth adding Crawford and Fitts/Priester. We'd still have Giolito (unless we go with a 6 man rotation) Criswell, Fitts or Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer as depth behind: 1. Crochet 2. Houck 3. Castillo 4. Buehler 5. Bello 6. Giolito, 7. Criswell, 8. Fitts or Priester, 9. Dobbins, 10. Fulmer I still see our starter depth as being better than 25-28 teams, even by trading 2 SP'ers for 1. I'd rather see us trade for a catcher or closer, but I'm not against upgrading the top of our rotation, either. I see Castillo as top of rotation (1 or 2) and not middle, just because he'd be slotted as our #3.

The Castro part was suggested as being changed to Fitts or Priester. Nobody knows if SEA likes Crawford or Fitts/Priester, but maybe Crawford's HR issues would be hidden in SEA. Do you really view Castillo as "sideways to Crawford?" Even if you do, doesn't adding Yoshida without his nearly full cost being paid as being reasonable?

I've said I don't see SEA saying yes to the deal, and that is why I suggested I'd add Fitts and or Priester, but yes, they save $18M and would use it. We'd get a pitcher who is much more useful to us than Yoshida is. It was not a deal based on some fictional spending teh savings elsewhere. the spending was in the deal, itself.

Story had a known injury issue, but yes, he had not missed much time, at all. Story played 145 games in 2019 and 142 in 2021, so he wasn't really an iron man out there, the two full seasons before joining the Sox. Sale was a horse, but many worried about his "violent" motion catching up to him someday. He was not an injury plagued player, even into his first 2-3 season with BOS, although signs were showing and he did miss a little time in "18 and '19.

Can you believe Friday is the Sox game vs Northeastern? Saturday at the Rays Sunday vs the Jays Monday v Yankees Last ST'ing game is March 23rd v Twins. Let the games begin!!!!!!

We have better depth than almost every other team. I'm not sure what the criteria is for "quality depth," as by definition, they are not starters. Last year, Houck was views as our 6th starter and Criswell our 8th or 9th. Rafaela, Abreu and DHam were viewed as role players or "depth." This year, we can view Crawford or Gio as our 6th starter. Both have a higher projected fWAR than any other team's 6th starter. If that is not "quality," what is? Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins are our 7-10 on the depth chart. I doubt anyone has much better than that, unless they are injured pitchers on the depth chart. Our pen has incredible depth, but I would agree with your point, here, and ask, how much of the depth is "quality/" We also lack a true lockdown closer, but maybe Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten or Whitlock can step up a slot and do okay. While many of the pen depth chart do not look "quality," so many have some level of promise, and there are so many of them, that it's hard to imagine almost all of them having a bad year, at once: The likely 7: (not counting our 6th starter as a pen arm) Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Weissert & Wilson. Pen depth: Bernardino was pretty damn good from 2023 to midway into 2024. Kelly & Penrod showed signs of promise in '24. We can convert a AAA SP'er to the pen: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer. I Campbell has real promise. (Drohan and Gambrel are long shots.) The rest are fringe or just hopefuls, but some have shown clear skills: Jovani Moran, Wyatt Mills, Bryan Mata, Noah Davis, Robert Stock, Sean Newcomb, Hobie Harris, Wyatt Olds and AA pitchers like Sandlin, Cruz, Webb, Hoppe, Troye and Celluci coudl rise. We don't even need 10-15% of these fringe guys to do well. Our depth at the everyday positions is largely speculative, when it comes to our top 3 prospects, but what team has 3 top everyday prospects as highly ranked as ours? I think you have to call them quality, of nobody can say they have it. Our catcher depth is not "quality," but it could be decent: Narvaez, Sabol, Zavala (Jo Garcia is too far away to count.) 1B depth depends on Devers being handed a 1Bman's mitt or not. (Romy & Wong are the depth, now.) We might need another Dom Smith type, if Casas goes down. 2B is loaded with good depth. Campbell, DHam, Romy, Grissom, Rafaela and either Story or Mayer. SS has Mayer, but then it's Romy or Rafaela. Still, that looks close to quality as you can get. 3B now has Devers w Bregman, so it has greatly improved. (Romy and Campbell might be the only other real depth at 3B.) OF is loaded, despite losing O'Neal and not signing anyone. Projections for our OF seem very low, to me, but we had one of MLB's best hitting and defensive OFs in 2024, and most are still moving towards prime: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Yoshida and maybe Romy, Grissom or DHam can learn to play OF. Then there are Anthony and Campbell capable of winning a FT role and doing well. That looks top quality, to me.

I was very high on I Campbell, last spring. There is still hope he makes it back on the 40 and 26.

I don't either, and that is one reason I suggested adding Fitts and or Priester. I was just giving my opinion on a trade suggesting, and not commenting on the likelihood of the deal. I was a bit surprised that SEA fan, harmony, seemed open to the idea of this trade. The deal is NOT happening, but I'm always open to talking what ifs...

At 2B, we have two main options: Campbell or a platoon between DHam and Romy (or Grissom.) Yoshida could be moved to LF as a platoon with Refsnyder. Duran in CF and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Rafaela or Abreu are the late inning defensive replacement when we have a lead. Or, Yoshida rides the bench as a PH'er. Or, Yoshida is optioned to AAA, until someone gets hurt.

Giolito?

There is one way: Yoshida and Ref platoon LF, Duran plays CF and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Yoshida essentially replaces Rafaela's bat vs RHPs, as Rafaela becomes the 4th OF'er against righties. That is a clear plus on O, but also a clear minus on D. If the game is at Fenway, maybe the minus on D is not so bad. In parks like Yankee stadium, maybe they play RF, but the hit on D is real. The gains on D at 3B and maybe 1B and RF likely outweigh the worse D by having Yoshida play OF in 70% of the games.