moonslav59

Westbrook 3-3 w HR and BB Meidroth 4BBs!

I was beginning to hope maybe he was turning things around.

On the farm, today... Westbrook 3-4 w HR & BB Casas 2-4 w 2B & BB Meidroth w 4 BB!!!! Alvarez 3-3 Grissom 1-5 w 2RBI POR is up 5-3, late Sandlin 4IP, 3H, 1ER, 1BB, 6K Teel 1-3 w HR & BB Anthony 1-4 Jordan 1-3 w HR and BB GRE is tied after 5. Bleis homered SAL won 6-5 in 10 (game 1) Yuten 4-5 and a homer shy of the cycle. Brannon 2-5

He does pretty well hitting bad pitches, but that last one was a doozie!

Yup. He's done okay as a rookie.

Refsnyder is sure proving he belongs! This is the third year in a row, he has been excellent vs LHPs. Only 15 batter in all of MLB have more PAs in the last 3 years v LHPs and a higher OPS. (And this was before tonight!)

Slow and bad D for a DH is too funny.

Ref sure makes losing O'Neill this winter, a little easier.

He sure has! And, not just for 1 year. He has been almost a straight platoon-type player, but this year he's at .760 v RHPs. Our team struggles vs LHPs, and only 15 batters in all of MLB have more PAs v LHPs and a higher OPS than Ref since 2022. He was at .910 before the homer, today (320 PAs) The next closest is Devers at #91 (.771.)

Some felt Houck was the 6th starter, and Criswell was maybe the 7th or 8th SP'er on the SP'er depth chart. If this is true, our top 5 failed more than out depth. Gio: out Bello: worst SP'er, this year Pivetta: inconsistent Crawford: pretty good Whitlock: 4 starts then out for year

On D, for sure. On D: Rafaela >>> anyone else in CF

This is interesting: Records since July 1st: 10-15 PHI(-27 run differential) 11-14 LAD (-34) 11-14 NYY (+13) 12-15 BAL (-30) 12-13 MIL (+8) 14-13 ATL (+10) 15-12 CLE (-6) 15-11 HOU (+14) 13-10 SDP (+5) 14-11 BOS (+1) 13-11 MIN (+8) 15-10 KCR (+40)

I think some worried about losing Turner and Duvall more than Verdugo, but adding him to their loss did worry some. Hell, I wasn't sure that Abreu and Rafaela could take up the slack, and nobody expected O'Neill to be over .900 and a top 15 OPS guy in MLB. I saw the trade as a way to improve our pitching depth and a money saver that helped us afford to make the O'Neill trade. We basically traded Duvall & Dugo for O'Neill and more playing time from Abreu & Rafaela. That was win, all around. Yes, the jury is out on Fitts and Weissert. When Dugo started out well for the Yanks, there was some rumbling in Sox Nation, especially since Abreu and Rafaela started out slowly, and then O'Neill got hurt.

I'm glad you brought that up. While we lost Turner, Duvall and Verdugo from 2023, we did not miss a beat. Losing O'Neill should be "absorbed", as well, although swapping a LHB for an equal RHB might make sense, as well as using our positional depth to improve our pitching. (Losing Dom Smith & Danny Jansen can be easily fixed.) You are right, losing Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Paxton will not be easy to replace, in kind. When you consider our weakest area, right now, is pitching and defense, one has to think the need to improve on it becomes even more important, this winter. (There will also be no Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims.) In theory, we will gain some pitching without making any moves: Whitlock Giolito Hendriks Fulmer Murphy & Mata Maybe more time or more productive time from: Slaten & Kelly I Campbell & Weissert Perhaps we can expect something of value from: Fitts Dobbins Guerrero I'm thinking, these guys should be viewed as possible depth and not counted on to win and hold down a rotation slot or be our everyday closer or top set-up man. (Maybe Slaten or Hendriks can be the 1st or 2nd set-up man.) IMO, we need an ace or solid #2 type, a closer, and 3-4 pitchers good enough to be expected to make the opening day 13 man staff. At worst, we need a solid #3 SP'er and a decent #4/5 type (like Pivetta), in lieu of a #1/2 type and 2 solid set-up men with the hope that hendriks or Slaten can be the closer and top 3 set up men. Either way, it comes down to 4-5 MLB pitchers. SP1 ____ SP2 Houck SP3 Giolito SP4 Crawford SP5 Bello SP6 Criswell SP7 ____ (a new Criswell) SP8 Priester SP9 Fitts SP10 Murphy Closer ____ RP2 Hendriks RP3 Slaten RP4 _____ RP5 Whitlock RP6 Kelly RP7 Winckowski RP8 Bernardino RP9 Fulmer RP10 Weissert/ I Campbell/ Booser/ Horn/ Mills/Guerrero IF JH won't spend bigly, or even if he does spend some, we will likely need to trade from our everyday player strength. Anthony or Abreu Mayer or Campbell Plus adding players like Bleis, Cespedes, JH Garcia, Meidroth or others Maybe sub Teel for one of the top 4 players I listed. It sucks giving up so much potential value, but we need to give to get.

Verdugo is of for 5, again, and still leading off. There were some who questioned that trade, at the time, and more after the first month or two of the season. Now, there is silence. .762 on May 30th in 55 Games and 225 PAs .577 since May 31st in 52 Games and 228 PAs .563 last 215 PAs .516 last 168 PAs True, Weissert and Fitts have not done much for the Sox, but Verdugo's replacements have done wonders: O'Neill Abreu Refsnyder

I read some guy thinks we will get Burnes at $280M and bring back O'Neill at close to $45M/3. He must now know JH.

Agreed, but without Houck and Crawford pitching well, we probably don't make it, so this is not just about what we do, if we make the PO's. I'd maybe rotate a missed start by Crawford, Houck and Bello for close to the rest of the season. There are 54 games left, so about 11 GS per SP'er. Take away 3 from each, and you get: 11 Pivetta 11 Paxton (yikes!) 8 Houck 8 Crawford 8 Bello 8 Criswell IMO, we have pretty close to the same chance of winning with Criswell on the mound as a gassed Crawford, Houck and Bello. Criswell has already done better than Bello. Since April 19th, Criswell has 63 IP and: 3.88 ERA 3.65 FIP (.294 BAbip) For the season: 69 IP (Team is 9-4 in his 13 GS) 3.91 ERA 3.76 FIP (.296 BAbip) Houck (129 IP) Team: 13-8 in 21 GS 2.79 2.93 FIP (.282 BAbip) But in last 8 GS: 44 IP 4.50 ERA 4.26 FIP (.307 BAbip) Crawford (128 IP) Team: 8-14 in 22 GS 3.81 ERA 4.75 FIP But, last 14 GS (81 IP) 4.98 ERA 5.84 FIP (.233 BAbip) (6.74 FIP in last 8 GS) Bello (107 IP in 20 GS) Team is 13-7 in his GS 5.13 ERA 4.26 FIP (3.25 BAbip) But last 11 GS: 5.88 ERA 4.51 FIP (.375 BAbip) I never thought I'd say it or believe it, but Criswell gives us an equal or better chance of winning than more than 1 SP'er in our rotation.

The Sox have 10 players with 210+ PAs and 9 of them are over .708. (10 are over .675.) 1.002 Devers .901 O'Neill .860 Duran .848 Refsnyder .837 Abreu .816 Wong (6 players over .815, including two pretty much on a platoon) .734 Yoshida .720 Smith .710 Rafaela .675 DHam (247 PAs) + Romy .778 (111 PAs) as a platoon would come to around .710ish, making it 9 slots over .710 (Abreu+ Ref=1) and (DHam + Romy=1) I'm not sure any other team can boast of this kind of balanced offense by positional slots. (While our seasonal OPS at 2B is bad, a DHam-Romy platoon, there, is much better.)

At the start of the season, on Part I and Part II, I discussed losing some big bats from 2023 and how I felt we could match the 2023 numbers by a group effort. While we did lose these OPS from some of most highly played players, we also lost some horrible OPS numbers from a combination of many lowly played players: .800 J Turner (2nd in PAS '23) .745 Verdugo (3rd) .834 Duvall (7th) But also... .599 Kike (9th) .638 Arroyo (12th and 206 PAs) .716 Reyes (13th) .522 Chang (112 PAs) .698 Urias (109) .701 Tapia (97) .368 Alfaro (20) I mentioned we might see less PAs from .570 Dalbec (53) Here were my positional projections, with the obvious 1B (Casas) and 2B (Grissom) off by a long shot.) BOLD RED= 2024 positional OPS On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs) C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700 (.770- Nice Gain! Not many had faith at C) 1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875 (.729) 2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725 (.525) 3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900 (.867) SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775 (.771 wrong names/right guess on OPS) LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775 (.890- POW!) CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725 (.714) RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750 (.883- Another POW!) DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775 (.773) We gained a lot on my projections at Catcher, LF and RF. We lost some at 1B and a lot at 2B. We came close at SS, 3B, CF and DH. All in all, we look just as good and more promising, going forward- on O, alone.

Just keep Criswell in the rotation and alternate days off between Crawford and Houck. I'm not sure we advance far in the playoffs, assuming me make them, if Crawford and Houck are "gassed." (Bello will be at his career high IP, too.)

This is reflected in the league-wide numbers, but with the Sox, the rise in OPS and fall in ERA are much more pronounced: MLB OPS by month: MLB month BOS .699 April .739 (+.040) .695 May .683 (-.012) .721 June .806 (+085) .735 July .839 (+.104) ERA MLB month BOS 4.00 April 2.62 (better by 1.38!) 3.90 May 3.80 (better by 0.10) 4.20 June 4.35 (worse by 0.15) 4.29 July 4.95 (worse by 0.36)

We are back to 8 games over .500, and in a balanced league, that places us 10th in MLB (.537 winning %.) For perspective and not as a predictor, that prorates to almost exactly 87 wins (.86.99.) In terms of games behind/ahead, we are actually tied for 9th best with ATL and just ahead of AZ and the streaking NYM, HOU & SDP. 9th BEST! WOW! The 108 game mark is exactly 2/3rds of the season. Although we are just 6 games ahead of #20 and 8.5 games from #1, I think this is pretty amazing. 54 games is a long way to go, so we probably should not be all giddy about our season, so far. Although 12 teams make the playoffs, being 10th best does not mean we get a berth. Right now, we are 2 GB MIN and 2.5 GB KCR for the last slot in the AL. We will likely have to do better than 87 wins to make it, since one of the 6 AL teams to make the playoffs might win the ALWest and have a worse record than us. Some other notes on MLB at the 2/3 mark of the season: CLE has passed PHI for the best record in MLB (and by 2 games!) That is nearly as shocking as the Sox being 9th or 10th or the Royals being 7th. On the flip side, the Rangers being in the bottom 10 is surprising (22nd best and just ahead of the early season surprise team, the Tiger.) In terms of run differentials: +115 NYY (Tied for 3rd best record in MLB) +95 KCR (T7th and an indicator that they are no fluke) +94 PHI (2) +92 CLE (1) +85 LAD (5) +82 BAL (T3) +82 MIL (6) +63 ATL (9) +49 MIN (T7) +47 HOU (T14 w SEA) +46 ARI (T10) +39 SDP (T12) +31 BOS (T10) +30 NYM (T12) Now the AL WC Race: 67-42 CLE (should win ALC) 65-46 BAL (T ALE & #1 WC) 65-46 NYY (T ALE & #1WC) 57-52 HOU (T ALW w SEA, but 1.5 behind BOS) 62-49 KCR (WC2) Has played 3 more games than BOS & MIN 60-48 MIN (WC3) 58-50 BOS -2.0 from MIN and -2.5 KCR (but 1 in loss column) 58-53 SEA -3.5 (-1.5 from BOS and still in WC race, too) 55-54 TBR -5.5 (Never really go away, do they?) TEX is now 9 out.

The paths our offense and pitching have been taking couldn't be more of a reverse course than it is, now. Our offense by OPS in cherry-picked sample sizes of chronological stretches: .707 first 27 games .723 second 27 games .790 third 27 games .853 last 27 games (.900 last 19 games!) Our pitching by ERA: 2.73 first 27 games 3.77 second 27 games 4.33 third 27 games (I'd take this, right now!) 4.92 last 27 games

It has been, since at least the Sale & Nate extensions (and not a Betts one.) I have given up on expecting him to spend really large, again, despite the massive Devers deal that dwarfed even the Price one, and despite semi "large and long" deals given to Story and Yoshida. I'll believe it when I see it has become my mantra, but that does not mean I am certain he will never spend bigly, again. That being said, I think we will keep Wong and Teel for as long as possible. It's hard as hell to find top tier catchers, although Wong's defense is not top tier, except his arm. Wong could end up seeing time at another position, but he'll have to stay near .800 for that. If it ever gets to the point, where we can't find ABs for one of the two, then look to trade, at that point. That might be 2-3 years from now. I understand MVP's desire to trade Mayer, but I'm not sold on the quantity over quality plan at middle infield. Rafaela should not play SS, unless it's an emergency, and by that I mean he should not be placed on any opening day roster about #3 on the MLB SS depth chart list. That narrows the field, significantly. Story cannot be counted on for anything, but he is at least one of the "quality" guys in the "quantity mix." I really like a DHam-Romy or Griffin platoon at 2B, but really as back-ups, and if we need one at SS, it's far to lacking on proven quality. Valdez makes a great platoon partner, but his D is so atrocious, I never want to see him at 2B, again. I've mentioned trading him, because this team has no space for a platoon DH/LF type. I really like Campbell, a lot, but he might be better suited for LF, as well. He may also not ne ML ready until the end of '25 or early '26. We have a bunch of super exciting players that could end up at 2B by 2026 or 2027, but I'm focusing more on now and 2025. Sogard already looks better than Westbrook, but I don't view him as a significant playing time middle infielder. I suppose we could look to free agency for that big RHB middle infielder, but so far nobody has named that guy, and I wonder about JH's willingness to pay him, even if he did exist. I'm not happy going into this depth chart at middle IF, next opening day (assuming we trade Mayer:) SS: Story, DHam-Romy, Sogard (emergency: Rafaela/Grissom) 2B: Story, DHam-Grissom/Romy, Sogard, maybe Campbell (late '25, with emergency back-up Rafaela) We need Mayer for 2025, and beyond, IMO. That takes me back to OF, as it always does. The OF has come a long way from being one of MLB's worst a few years back, to one of the best and deepest, today. To trade for pitching, we need to give to get. I know fans are hesitant to trade players they like, and trading one is NOT about "giving up on" one or "dumping" from depth by just handing talent away. I'm super high on many of our OF'er, even with some having limited (such as platoon only) roles, going forward. We are so strong and deep at the OF position, right now, looking at 2025 and as far into the future as possible. We even have our best defensive OF'er playing near FT SS, right now, and that is not just about the hole we have at SS, but also so we can play Duran, O'Neill and an Abreu-Ref platoon in the OF and not at DH, where Yoshida has been coming to life. Everyone is back, next year, except O'Neill. Losing his RHB will hurt like hell, and we may try to bring him back, due to the LH'd unbalanced nature of our current OF and our most ML ready farm depth. Let's assume JH keeps the tight budget and disallows an O'Neill return. We'll have to hope Story picks up some of the RHB void, and maybe Rafaela kicks it up a notch. The return of LHB Casas might make up for some of the O'Neill loss, especially the power, but we'll be even more LHB heavy in 2026. I'm not so sure that is a good idea. This sort of begs the question: which talented LHB OF'er do we trade for pitching or a RHB OF'er. (I suppose we could trade Mayer and a LHB OF'er for a power SS, and barely miss a beat in the OF, but I'm trying to keep it simple.) So, as much as mostly all of us love our LHB OF'ers and top prospects, who do we keep and who do we trade. I don't see any more simple solutions. Duran has to be viewed as the most likely to keep. While his arbs will get more and more expensive, he's got 4 years to go, with at least 3 likely to be underpays for the value he is likely to give us. Abreu has shown some great signs of being a true hitter vs RHPs, and we face RH'd SP'ers about 70% of the time. He can PH and play in most of the other 30% of the game, as well. He looks like a true "keeper," but when you look at the promise Anthony brings to the table, I'm not so sure he is the guy to keep. Refsnyder makes for a great platoon with him, but he's gone after 2025. I think the next guy looks like he can hit LHPs and RHPs better than Abreu, but he's not proven anything at the ML level. Anthony looks like the guy that should be kept, but he would likely bring back way more in trade than Abreu, so to me, it comes down to the return and which trade-off helps us the most. We need pitching, badly, so to me, in theory, it looks like trading Anthony makes the most sense. The RHB Rafaela, despite his high error rate in his rookie year, looks like the best defensive OF'er we have that is ML or near ML ready. His bat has shown plus quality in year one, after s low start. He can even steal a base or two. Refsnyder offer a great OF bat vs LHPs, and we may soon see Campbell as another RHB but in LF, only. Let's say we trade Anthony for pitching and do not replace O'Neill, this would be our 2025 OF and beyond look: LF: Duran L (Refsnyder R) Yoshida L in an emergency. (Sogard L/R in AAA) CF: Rafaela R (Duran L) RF: Abreu L & Refsnyder R 2025 and beyond: LF: Duran L, Campbell R (Valdez L) (Cespedes?) CF: Rafaela R, Duran L (Bleis) RF: Abreu L, Campbell? R or Jh Garcia R I think that still looks pretty solid, even without O'Neill and Anthony. We gotta give to get. There is no room for everyone to play as much as they should. We need pitching, pitching, and when we are done, even more pitching. If JH won't pay for it, this seems like the most logical way to get it.

Nice win! BAL lost. Yanks down vs TOR.