moonslav59

Boy, MIN is playing like crap. They sure gave other teams a shot at the dance. Too bad, we dropped the ball, and two teams are now between us and MIN. Still, a sliver of hope... 78-70 MIN 76-73 DET -2.5 75-73 SEA (Tied in the 8th) -3.0 pending game 75-74 BOS -3.5

We all agree on this- a rarity on this site.

Indeed. If we find out SEA has no interest in Yoshi, even with cash, then work on something else to pry a pitcher from them. Abreu and Grissom/DHam will not be nearly enough. It would likely take Casas or a top 4 prospect as the centerpiece. I'm willing to do that, if need be. I'm thinking Yoshi is not desired, even at a low cost, so Casas might be our best option. harmony does not think they'd want Mayer, and Anthony or Campbell fill needs we have. SEA has a great catcher, so I doubt Teel is a big want. Casas and Abreu for Miller might work. Casas, Abreu and Yoshi for Miller, Haniger and Garver might work.

Think of it this way, would you be happy, if the Sox signed a FA Castillo for $21.6M x 3 years? I know I would be. He does turn 32 and may have been showing signs of decline, but he still worth it, IMO. If I were the GM of SEA and had to trade a pitcher to improve the offense, I'd keep the other 4 and trade Castillo for offense. Then, take the money saved to add another bat via free agency. Taking back salary kind of defeats that aspect of the idea, but if you can get two bats for him, then it may be worth it.

ND won 66-7 over Purdue, who is not a good team. Steve Angeli went 6 for 9 for 100 yrds and 2 TDs. We had two 100 yards runners: Love & leonard. Price ran for 86 yards on 8 carries. The ground game was a mega mismatch: 362 yards to 38 for Purdue. LSU barely beat South Carolina and Missouri sneaked by 24th ranked BC. It doesn't look like any major shake-ups, this week. It kinda sucks in college football, when your team has an early season loss, especially to a bad team.

I'm loving it. The articles are great. It seems like they fuel more discussion and seem unbiased and factual. The only thing I dislike, and it's no big deal, is it seems harder to find the most recent posts than the last format, especially when the game thread is in full use. I have to find the game thread category, click on it, then click on the game, then the latest post. I'm not sure this is something that needs to be fixed. It's a minor inconvenience for me. I'd like to say, kudos to you and your writers for taking this on. Great job!

I conceded the improvement might just be "incremental" and that better than crap cans still be crappy, but how quickly can a new management team turn around a whole system? My point was that the farm additions of Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Slaten and Wink were better than the previous 5 or more years. The incoming farm infusion for the end of 2024 and into the start of 2026, looks better than it has looked in many years (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Sandlin, Guerrero and maybe a couple others.) The longer range pitchers are almost total speculation, but we have more promising pitchers than we have in this group for maybe 10 years. I'm fine with calling it incremental. I'm first in line to say we need vast improvement. I am encouraged by drafting more pitchers and drafting them higher than past years as a sign we are trying, anyway. After drafting Montgomery, who almost everyone thinks was a lock-solid pick, we spent our bonus money as such: $2.0M Tolle (2nd pick) $1.25M Cason (8th pick) $700K Neely (3rd) $400K Clarke (5th) $300K Aita (6th) That's ober $4.6M on pitchers 2 through 8 picks and just $750K on non pitchers (Ehrhard 4th and Turner 7th) That looks like s hift, to me. It may not work, but the effort looks pretty clear, to me. (Now, if Cason turns out to not be a pitcher, the numbers shift to $2M for batters and $2.4 for pitchers.)

I love this article, and I'm a fan or Rafaela, who still liked the extension we gave him. While I do agree than an OF of Duran-Anthony and Abreu looks better, on paper, I'd modify it to put Rafaela in CF and Anthony in RF vs LHPs. To piggyback on the point about the short-coming of Yoshida at DH, I'd much prefer to see this alignment: LF: Duran (Ref/Abreu) CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony) RF: Anthony (Abreu/Ref in short RF parks, only) DH: Abreu-Ref platoon. Sit Rafaela vs some or many tough RHPs and maybe DH E Valdez, if he's on the 26 and go with the OF suggested in many games with RH'd SP'ers. Vs LHPs, Rafaela is playing over Abreu in 100% of the games.

Pointing out that our offense is doing very well is not misleading, though. We all know there is more to winning than good hitting. Perhaps, Sox fans know this more than any other city's fanbase. Our offense has also done poorly in situations like with RISP and with Men on Base and high leverage situations, but we both agree those types of stats are not a sustainable thing or a skillset. It's not misleading to point out really bad defense and a pitching staff in steep decline from the first few weeks of 2024 is the main reason we are only at .500, either. Good hitting, average pitching and horrible D puts us at about .500. It is what it is.

It's not a strategy. I am recommending we add 3-4 solid pitchers to our staff- maybe even 5, which is more than many suggest. I have always advocated quality over quantity as a "strategy," so this is not my chosen method. I am just pointing out that the quantity of pitching prospects showing some "hope" is high that I think it's been in a very long time, and that this is not a bad thing. I am also aware that guys like Houck and Crawford were once considered "hopes" more than sure bet quality pitching prospects. Back then, we have very little quality and quantity, and I am seeing improvement, even if just incremental. Soxprospects.com top ranked pitchers: NOV '22: 6 Mata, 8 Walter, 10 Perales, 12 Wikelman, 13 Murphy, 19 E R-C, 22 Seabold, 23 Ward, 25 German, 26 Drohan, 27 Kelly NOV '20: 3 Mata, 7 Houck, 8 Ward, 9 Seabold, 10 Aldo Ramirez, 11 Song, 12 Groome, 18 Murphy NOV '18: 3 Groome, 5 DHern, 7 Mata, 10 Feltman, 12 Shawaryn, 16 Lakins NOV '16: 4 Groome, 5 Kopech, 8 Johnson, 16 Raudea, 17 TBall, 19 Shawaryn NOV '14: 2 Owens, 5 ERod, 6 Johnson, 7 Barnes, 9 Ranaudo, 11 TBall, 14 Kopech, 19 Stanki NOV '12: 2 Barnes, 4 Webster,, 8 Owens, 10 D Britton, 11 Workman, 13 Johnson, 14 A Wilson, 15 Ranaudo, 19 Pimental, 20 P Light Granted, better than crap can still be crap or pretty crappy, but how quickly do you think a farm pitching staff can be significantly improved? I think the in-home pitchers we have added over the last 5 years are better than the previous 5+ yrs: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Bello, Wink, Salten and others. I think the ML ready or near ML ready pitching prospects are better now than in the last 10+ years: Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin and others like Wikelman/Gambrell/Rogers/Mata/Murphy/Hoppe/I Coffey. I think the pitching pipeline that is more than 1.5 years away is also better or more promising than it has been in over 10 years: Perales, Monegro, Tolle, E R-C, Valera, Cason, Early, Mullins, Paez, D Reyes, Neely, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygart, Dean, Carlson, I, too, wish we had a better pitching pipeline but it is better or improving in all 3 areas I broke down, and I think Brez and Bailey are rightly focusing on it. In less than a year, they added Fitts, Priester, Slaten, Sandlin, Judice and way more pitchers drafted than years beforehand. Draft slots on pitchers: 2024: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 (paid 3rd biggest bonus) 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 & 20 (6 in top 10 and 11 in top 16) 2023: 4, 5 (after 2 comp picks in 4th) 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16, 1, 20 (4 in top 10 and 7 in top 16) 2022: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20 (6 in top 10 and 10 in 16) 2021: 4 in top 10 and 6 in 16 2020: #3 and #4 out of 4 losts total. 2019: 5 in 10 & 9 in 16 2018: 3 in 10 (6, 7 & 8) and 7 in 16 2017: 5 in 10 and 8 in 16. This was the last year, we seemed to focus highly on pitching: 1B Kopech, 3 Cosart, 4 McAvoy, 7 Reilly, 9 Steen. I still think 2024 tops 2017.

The Sox have apparently pre-empted their Rule 5 protection choices by adding several players to the 40 before the 2024 season ends. Fiits, Guerrero and now Penrod, who I viewed a sa bubble protectee. My view of possible Rule 5 protectees to come: 3 Locks: Dobbins, Fulmer, Monegro 3 Possible: Jh Garcia (I'd protect him.) Gambrell, Liu 6 Long Shots: Bastardo, Castro, Jordan, Hickey, Sikes, Troye I think we add 4 to the 40 with Jh Garcia being the 4th. With 7 FAs coming off the 40 (not counting 60 Day IL Paxton) and 6 IL palyers needing to be added (Gio, Hendriks, Whitlock, Mata, Murphy & I Campbell,) we will need to DFA or trade 3 to make room for the 4. I think these might be the 3: 1. Shugart 2. Gasper 3. Horn or Sogard, Murphy, Booser or Mata I don't see a roster crunch, until we add our 3rd or 4th FA, and even then, it does not seem to be a big issue. We might also trade 2 for 1 or one for a non 40 prospect.

It's a big assumption to count on JH seeing it as a "ton of room." You and I agree there should be a ton of room, but I've thought that for several years, now, and it never turns out that way. Our biggest spending winters were offset by our biggest contracts lost: Betts 1/2 Price and Porcello in 2020. We added a lot of contracts in 2022, but lost Pedey & JBJ. The winter before 2023 was a joke. We lost JD and Nate plus Kike, Wacha, Hill & Strahm. This past summer saw a net drop in payroll, despite adding Gio & O'Neill.

Duran is a plus defender in CF and top 3 in LF. Story, when healthy is top 5 at SS and top 2-3 at 2B. Rafaela is top 5-6 in CF. Abreu is top 10 in RF/ Anthony should be above avg. Why would Devers be a dumpster fire at 1B? It might take a few weeks to adjust, but his main issue at 3B is not his glove or range, but his arm. Half his career errors are throwing.

I totally agree, but there is the aspect of how much a team thinks a position can be upgraded from within the system, and there is a significant chance those choices can go wrong or horribly wrong. Even adding someone from outside the system can go horribly wrong, as in Grissom's 2024 value. If you go by team positional fWAR : Catcher 20th: with Teel in the system, I doubt we go big, here. We may look for a decent 1 year deal- maybe even Jansen on a 1-2 year deal. 1B 22nd: but with a healthy Casas, I think they see 1B as a net plus, despite the poor D. Maybe near top 10 with a potential for top 6-7 in MLB. 2B 30th: has been a major thorn in our side since 2018, but with Story returning and Mayer & Campbell ML ready in 2025, plus decent play by DHam and Romy and Grissom lurking around, we will not add, here. SS 19th: thanks to Rafaela playing "out of position." I see SS like 2B. We will not add a SS. In fact we may trade Mayer or DHam. 3B 13th: we are not trading Devers or adding a 3Bman. The Devers move to 1B is likely a longshot idea for 2025, anyway. We stand pat, here and hope Devers has a decent year on D, like he has a couple seasons. OF 2nd to NYY: I'm lumping them together, in part to say no outside additions will be made, and with Anthony looking ML ready and Rafaela's likely return to FT CF, we should be top 2, again, here. DH13th: should be about the same in 2025, unless we find a taker for Yoshida. We will not add, here, and if we do trade Yoshida, an Abreu-Ref platoon could easily be a major improvement, here with Anthony in RF. To me, the next to positions scream for outside the system additions: Pitching 13th but has fallen off a cliff and is 0.5 WAR from being below average. SP12th: at 10.8, which is just 0.8 from 16th. Losing Pivetta will not help. His 1.7 fWAR ranks second on the Sox in SP WAR. I'm also not sure we can count on Crawford repeating 1.7, Houck repeating 3.7 and Criswell repeating 1.1. IMO, only Bello rates to repeat or improve on his 2024 fWAR 0f 1.6. Houck might be the other. RP 18th: but in reality is worse, and with the losses of Jansen (1.4) and Martin (0.8), it looks bottom 5-6, IMO. Jansen and Martin are #1 and #3 in RP WAR, this year. When you see Booser is #4, Weissert is #4 and Bernardino is #5, you know this is a high need area. Inside fixes might be Whitlock, Hendriks, Fulmer and a full season from Slaten, but that does not come close to improving our ranking. To me, we need: SP1 Closer Set-Up SP3 or RP 4 or 5. I doubt JH & Co see it this way. They likely think we need a SP3 and a couple decent set-up men.

If they seem him in that light, then maybe a deal can be made. I'm not sure how much appeal Yoshi has to the fanbase, or specifically the Asian fan base, but maybe some.

The idea is SEA needs hitting and Yoshida seems like an upgrade at DH over Garver and or Haniger. Is it enough to move the needle? Maybe not. Is his cost, even if we pay some of his contract a turn-off for SEA? Maybe- maybe not, especially if we pay a lot or take back Garver and or Haniger. I do not think SEA views the Castillo contract as a burden or net negative, but trading away the last few years of his contract does make some sense, if they use the savings to add a FA bat somewhere, thereby improve their offense at DH and another slot. To me, if I was SEA, I'd rather trade Castillo than 5 years of Miller, Gilbert or Kirby. Maybe even more than trading Woo. I've always liked Castillo, so I know I am biased, there, but I think we can come up with something that works for both teams. Our depth at offense is such that I think we can overpay there to get the upgrade we need at pitching. I think 4 or 5 of SEA's SP'ers would slot #1 for us. At worst, some might be #2's behind Houck, and that is precisely what we need.

I'd call our OF defense better than "decent." Having to use Rafaela at SS, so much hurt, but it is what it is. In terms of numbers, our OF D ranked: 2nd in DRS at 40 (just 2 from #1) T6 in OAA (13, which is 1 out away from being T 4th and 2 outs from T 3rd.) 13th in UZR150 (+1.3) a stat falling out of favor. I know you are not talking 2025, but an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu/Anthony looks top 2-3, to me. I agree our catching looks bottom 5, if not #30th. I agree that Casas and Devers are dumpster fires on D. Our middle IF was stabilized a bit, by Rafaela at SS and DHam-Romy at 2B, but it was still below average. The hope of a healthy Story seems to be more and more like some dream, but there is a chance he brings the MI up to plus status. Who plays 2B might affect that, but if it's DHam-Romy, I think we'd be a plus. Campbell and Grissom are largely unknown on 2B defense. EValdez should never play an inning at 2B for us, again. If all the stars align, maybe we see: Big PLus at SS, LF, CF Plus at RF and 2B Real Bad at 3B, 1B and C Moving Devers to 1B and Casas to DH or another team may change 1B to average and 3B to unknown. Teel may eventually improve the Catcher D, but these are big what ifs.

It may come down to us needing many of these guys to see an uptick in velo or spin rate or whatever, to make a jump in the rankings, but I am encouraged by the number of pitchers we have in our system that are poised to make a jump. Some don't need a big jump. Many will not improve. Some will look worse, next year. I'm usually not one to be happy about quantity over quality, but I think our quantity has enough quality to keep the hope alive. Perales already has been recognized as "having the stuff" needed. As with too many Sox pitchers, it comes down to health and role assigned. This group may not need a big jump: Priester (not a prospect,) Fitts, Monegro, Tolle, Sandlin, E R-C, Dobbins, Valera, D Reyes, Neely, Ingrassia These guys need to fix something, bigly or may settle into a RP role: Penrod, Wikelman, Early, Mullins, Paez, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygarrt, Dean, Carlson and Mata. While this second group does not look impressive, one-by-one, there are 12 listed, and the hope that 2-3 might jump, next year is not unrealistic. So, we can hope Perales gets healthy and one or two from Fitts, Priester or Dobbins can help in 2024. Add maybe 3-4 from the other 8 on the first group and 2-3 from the second group, and maybe we see 7-10 pitchers take meaningful jumps in 2025. Even if it's just 4-6 that take big jumps, that might be enough. 3-4 real big jumps may work even better. I might be overly optimistic. I get that way with our prospects, but I do think there is a lot of hope in our system, and more so than we've had in a long time.

I'd do this, despite the fact that of all the everyday positions, and all the strong depth we have, corner IF has the least depth of all. Presumably, we'd move Devers to 1B and use Story, Mayer or Campbell at 3B. Meidroth seems like a long shot to win the 3B job, but he may be the depth we need to not have to add a 3Bman over the winter. I think the trade works for SEA and TEX, but I'm not expert on what those teams need or want. By opening a position at 3B for Story, Mayer or Campbell, we lessen the logjam at middle infield. (I know it sounds funny to claim we have a logjam of talent at middle infield, when we have sucked at 2B and SS for 2 seasons, with 2B being 5 seasons in the making, but I am super high on Campbell and think between Mayer and Story, we can cobble together 162 games of healthy and plus play at SS.) I also like the utility combo of DHam and whoever becomes the RHB guy: Grissom or Romy. Sogard and Meidroth offer extended depth, and Romy or Wong can back up 1B. I really like Casas, and think his work ethic and batting skills are very good, if not great, but I realize we have to give to get. As much as I've been suggesting an Abreu trade, it does not mean I value him, lowly. I like him, a lot. He plays plus D in RF and is a top 30 batter in MLB, this year, but my optimism on Anthony is through the roof, and if we can get Miller without parting with a top 4 prospect, I'm all in. Doing this trade costs us no money. If rumors are true that we will not spend, aagin, this winter, I still think a limited budget should allow us to add two pitchers like Flaherty and Sewald. I'm not sure adding Miller, Flaherty and Sewald is enough, especially when you factor in losing Casas, O'Neill, Jansen, martin and Pivetta, but with the influx of prospects, I think we would be significantly better. Doing more would be great, and if we can shed Yoshi's contract and add another key pitcher and RHB, then WOW! That could be hard to do, and too pie in the sky concerning JH's willingness to spend more than we hope he will.

Just finished watching, and maybe this is all too little- too late, but it was a fun game to watch. We almost got Cole's ERA to go over 4.00. Devers retook the team OPS lead. Yoshida has established himself as our resident Yankee killer. Bello seems to be finding the groove we hoped he'd have all season long. The pen doing well was the real shocker, today. 3.2 IP 1 hit, 3BB 4Ks and ZERO Runs allowed. Nice to welcome Penrod, this way. Story's 3 hits is a bit encouraging. Erros by E Valdez and Devers did not lead to any runs, but keep the concern high on these two staying at their current positions for 2025. E Valdez still leads all Sox players with PAs at 2B in 2024. The call for Devers to 1B, sooner rather than later may start picking up some steam.

The Sea Dogs season ends, this weekend, while Woo's end next weekend. soxprospects comes out with their end of year rankings in November, but I'm not sure hos many changes will be made. I don't think anyone will graduate by then, but here is my rankings, as of now: 1. Anthony, 2. Campbell, 3. Mayer, 4. Teel 5. Montgomery, 6. Perales, 7. Arias 8. Cespedes, 9. Jh Garcia, 10. Bleis, 11. Meidroth, 12. Fitts 13. Romero, 14. Sandlin, 15. Tolle, 16. Jo Garcia 17. Monegro, 18. Dobbins, 19. E R-C, 20. Valera 21. Cason, 22. Guerrero, I'm not high on 16. Castro, 19. Penrod, 20. Wikelman, 28. Jordan and 30. Zanetello. My 23-30 are... D Reyes, Early, Mullins, Paez, Riemer, Ju Gonzales, Neely & Dean

I totally get your disgust for JH, but he just signed off on a $38M deal for Giolito, and the deal was giving SEA the 2Bman they need, not BOS. BOS gives up Grissom, and we still have our 2Bman. We dump Yoshi and add Castillo for a net cost of $30M over 3 years, or just $10M AAV per season.

I seem to remember you saying I Campbell was a good get by BOS, and for someone you and I agree was a non tender type player. I have no idea what Grissom is worth. His stock has fallen, despite the recent heating up in AAA. I am not an expert in the value of SEA players, as you well know and point out often enough, and I do not pay for BTV, so maybe Grissom for Collin Snider (as your GM loves trading away RP'ers, and we need some.) Maybe for 2 years of Thornton or 3 years of Saucedo?

No, that is not near impossible. The point was to go 4-3 then sweep MIN. That looks much harder to do, now. Not impossible, but maybe near impossible. The equation has changed in at least 2 ways: 1. We now need to go 4-1 in the nest 5 games, then 3-0 v MIN. 2. Our team looks worse after these last 2 losses than it did 3 days ago, when we were 4-2 in 6 recent games. I'd say 7-1 is near impossible, where as 7-4 was not so impossible.

I agree. We need to try and replace our low WAR players with ones of higher value, even if it does not always translate into more wins. Over the long haul, it should. Let's look at just a few key teams and their total fWAR values from 2023 to 2024 and compare to the W-L differentials: (I pro-rated the 2024 numbers based on 162 games) BOS: 78 wins in -23 to projected 81 wins (+3) and fWAR +9.0- P 13.7>14.7 (Pitching got better) B 13.2 >21.2 (Bats WAY BETTER) KCR: 56 wins to 89 (+33) and fWAR +22.5- P 8.0> 19.9 (Pitching got WAY BETTER)/ B 11.8>22.4 (Bats WAY BETTER) MIN: 87 wins to 86 wins (-1) and fWAR -0.6- P 20.3>18.8 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.3> 25.2 (Bats better) NYY: 82 wins to 95 (+13) and fWAR + 20.4- P 14.6> 15.0 (Pitching got better)/ B 13.5 >33.5 (Bats WAY BETTER) BAL: 101 wins to 91 (-10) and fWAR +3.5- P 18.3>17.3 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.1 >28.6 (Bats better) HOU: 90 wins to 87 (-3) fWAR -3.2- P 15.2> 14.5 Pitching got worse)/ B 27.8> 25.3 (Bats worse) CLE: 76 wins to 92 (+16) fWAR +7.7- (P 15.0> 12.8 Pitching got worse)/ B 14.3 > 24.4 (Bats WAY BETTER) The correlation is not exact. In some cases, it's not close.