moonslav59

I totally get it. It's a business. I have said, for a while, I do not expect JH to open his wallet, this winter, and maybe never again, like he did before. I do think he had a history of spending more than he needed to spend to make money or more money, and that winning might have mattered more to him, then than now, but who knows what he's thinking. He may be looking at the farm infusion we have had and are about to have and decide it is splurge time, but again, I do not know, nor do I expect it to happen. If I had to guess on the best splurge year for maximizing ring potential, I might say before 2026. I just hope he spends up close to the line, at this point, but anywhere from $10-30M under would not surprise me. $30-40M under would be a mild surprise and tick me off. I'm not sure how much they have their finger on the pulse of Sox Nation, or even if it matters to them, but I think a big chunk is on to the scam, and will be watching closely, this winter. Just my take.

Here are some big differences between 2024 and 2023: Pitching and D: 2024: 4.13 ERA (105 ERA+) but 90 unearned runs allowed (99 per 162) 105 errors counted 2023: 4.52 ERA (100 ERA+) but only 58 unearned runs allowed in 15 more games. (102 erros counted) _________________________________________ Timely Hitting: OPS RISP/ Men on Base/RBI RISP 2024: .755/ 475 in 1493 PAs (would be 528 over 1661 PAs) 2023: .767/ 553 in 1661 PAs ________________________________________ Together, these add up to 41 more unearned runs allowed and 23 less runs batted it, for a total of 64 runs.

Last season, we were 73-72 before splitting a doubleheader with the Yanks on Sept 14th. (74-73) We ended the season going 4-11. In 2022, we won 6 of our last 9, but were out of it by then at 72-81 after 153 games. (We lost 6 in a row, just before that stretch.) We went 9-12 after Sept 13th.

Yes, and our spending went up- not down. Our ranking went down, yes, but not spending.

Do you have the name or link? I googled it and got nothing.

He's "athletic" enough, but I'm not sure how close to decent ot plus he is at any one position.

I have no idea what team would do it, but I count pitchers ranked from about #61 to 90 as #3 SP'ers. These might be pitchers like these: by fWAR (1.7 to 2.0): jake irvin, J Tailon, Nick Pivetta, R Blanco, K Crawford by ERA (3.85 to 4.25) Mitch keller, A healey, K Crawford, Gausman, jake Irvin, Bassitt by xFIP (4.05 to 4.25:) Heaney, Bassitt, Taillon, Wacha, Blanco, Gausman Some names are on 2 or 3 lists. You think Pivetta is better than Abreu? (Now, the Sox need pitching, so we would probably not trade 3 years of Pivetta for 5 years of Abreu, and the gae and years of control matter, too, but I think many names I listed seem about even in value. I did lis those who look much better or worse, but look for yourself: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&pageitems=100&month=0&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&qual=80&pagenum=1

I can't remember who said it, but it was just recently. He said it was reported by some paper. Was it Randy?

I don't either, but it would not surprise me to see further budget cuts.

One could claim they spent the $10M saved on Sale on Hendriks and O'Neill.

The payroll went up by $20-30M from 2021 to 2022, depending on looking at the start or end of the year totals. Others passed us, so yes, we kept dropping in ranking, steadily, but not because we have always cut salary. We also spent more in '23 than '21.

If the team keeps losing, JH does not look like the smartest guy in the room. He can't be so self-absorbed to not see that. He may just be a greedy guy, but no way does he think people are watching the last 5 years of Sox baseball and calling him smart. If that is what he was trying to do, his time is up. He could gain some cred by winning and staying under the tax line by $1-5M, but no way he cons anyone by spending at $200M and losing, again.

I like the trade, a lot. I also think Fitts can be good. I just hope JH isn't thinking they can fill slots instead of adding a quality SP'er.

I agree. I didn't say he (they) knew what they were doing, but JH & Co. did cut salary from 2023 while claiming were were going to be competitive.

How much value do we place on these guys returning from major injuries? Story seems like the most important returning player. His health is essential to improving the defense at 2-3 positions, and his offense could give a big boost from the right side of the plate. Giolito had issues of concern before he got hurt and may start the season on the IL. Hendriks was just slowed down in his attempt to return by the end of the 2024 season. Whitlock looked real good in 4 starts, but many feel he should go and stay in the pen. Fulmer seems like one giant question mark, but he does have some upside potential. I Campbell showed some promise with SEA in 2023, but is also a question mark. Murphy may not help, even if he's 100% healthy. Players who missed significant time or played hurt, a lot: Devers, Slaten, Yoshida and Criswell. Personally, I'm getting tired of hoping on hope we get something from returning injured players. I'm not saying I have no hope, but counting on most of these top list guys to help is asking for a letdown.

Unless he felt Gio was the cheapest way to keep us just barely "competitive."

Actually, Houck, Crawford and Bello were all DD additions. Pivetta was Bloom. Criswell was Brez. Those are our top IP pitchers for 2024. Next up... IP 67 Wink- Bloom, 57 Kelly- Bloom, 54 Weissert- Brez, 52 Anderson- Brez (DFA'd,) 52 Jansen- Bloom, 51 Bernardino- Bloom, 50 Slaten- Brez, 42 Bosser- Bloom, 39 Martin- Bloom Maybe estimates for the 2025 IP list might look like this: 185 Houck- DD 175 Crawford- DD 170 Giolito- Brez 165 Bello- DD 120 Criswell & Priester- Brez & Brez RP 70 Whit & Wink; Bloom & Bloom 60 Slaten- Brez 50 Hendriks- Brez

Agreed. Lugo might not have even been protected for Rule 5. No way paulino would have been. Ovis Portes may amount to something special, but when? 2029? Even if Yorke outshines Priester, I like the effort to improve pitching by trading bats. All-in-all, the only significant deadline moves we made after Nate & Pearce in 2018 have been: Pivetta '19 (Workman & Hembree) Schwarber '21 (Aldo Ramirez) Abreu & Valdez '22 (Vaz) 2 sells and 1 buy

Has any GM, even one who has been long past any chance of getting back into a FO, even written such a book? They barely even discuss one move they made.

I'm not calling him a star. I called him a platoon player who fields a difficult position well to very well, while being a top 30 OPS guy. I'm wondering how you value middle RP'ers. If you respect fWAR, there are only 32 RP'ers with an fWAR at 1.2 or better (Slaten is at 1.2 for perspective.) 40 are at 1.0+. To me, a middle RP'er might be ranked 90th to 120th among all RP'ers. That is a 0.4 to 0.5 pitcher, or which MLB has 38 in that range in 2024 (#89 to #128.) there are 30 more pitchers at 0.3. Abreu had a 0.6 fWAR in just 85 PAs in 2023. He has a 3.0 fWAR, this year. The best RP'ers, this year are at 2.3 fWAR, now. I'm not saying Abreu is better than every closer in MLB, but I think he's better than 2 middle guys, for sure. Hell, 3.0 places him top 30 among all pitchers in fWAR- like Hunter Brown, Zach Eflin, Steele and Cortes. Again, I'm not saying we could trade him for one of them, but he's worth a #3 SP'er or a couple of good set-up men (7th and 8th inning RP'ers,) IMO. He's also very cheap and has 4-5 years of control. That has to be worth a #3 SP'er with 2-3 years of control.

Wong would be a very nice back-up catcher (to Teel,) back-up 1Bman (to Casas) and 3rd/4th string 2Bman (to Campbell/ DHam/ Grissom.) He will stay on the 26 for a long while.

I know this thread is about Brez, but I'd like to look back at some of the players Bloom left for him, and how some of Bloom's questionable moves, might look a little better after the 2024 season results are in. I'm not going to praise Bloom for not trading away players handed to him by DD and Ben, nor for extending Devers, Refsnyder, Bello, Rafaela and Whitlock. Here is a look back at some of his major moes: Betts: still bad, but Wong has slightly improved on the return guesstimate. Whitlock from Rule 5: Still looks good, but only 4 GS hurt us in 2024. Pivetta gave us 4 decent years for such a minimal cost. Wink was part of the beni trade that looked awful for the first 2 years, but now is not quite so bad. Story signing still looks god-awful. There is very little time to redemption, but Story could minimize the negative by giving us a couple good and long seasons. Refsnyder was a steal. Kelly may turn out well. Abreu & EValdez for Vaz looks like a big win for Bloom. DHam was part of the JBJ for Renfroe trade that still looks bad, but not as bad, now. Jansen and martin were good signings. Yoshida may still come close to earning his keep, but has not done so, thus far. Bernardino was decent. Prospects added: Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel, Arias, Cespedes, Meidroth, Bleis, Romero, Jo Garcia and more... I'm not defending his overall record, but many of his moves look better or slightly better, now.

Lux Tax Numbers: $104M for 9 players: 29.1 Devers, 23.3 Story, 19.3 Gio, 18.0 Yoshi, 9.2 Bello, 6.3 Raf, 5.0 Hendriks, 4.7 Whit, 2.0 Ref (assuming no retirement) $16M on 3 first year arb players: 6.5 Houck, 5.0 Duran, 4.5 Casas (wild guesses by me.) That's $120M on 12 players. The rest are pre-arb, until we add someone by trade or signings. 14 players at pre-arb prices might be about $10M. Add $17.5M for player benefits, about $4.8M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $1.7M for bonus pool, and we may be close to $145M before any additions. I'm not sure how accurate this is and welcome anyone to suggest adjusting my numbers. I have us $95M under the lux tax, but this does not jive with cots who has us at $135M before arbs and pre-arbs added. Spotrac has us estimated at $137M payroll. If you add the benefits and bonus pool, it comes to almost $165M, which is $20M more than I have.

So, if the rumor that the budget will be $40M under the taxx line is true, that gives Brez $20M AAV to spend on filling 2-4 pitching holes (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.) YIKES! No way we improve the pitching on $20M and the return of Gio, Whit, hendriks and Fulmer, UNLESS we make a MAJOR TRADE or two.

I'm as pissed at JH as anyone else. His tightening of the budget is a major reason for where we are, right now. That does not mean I'm going to lie about my increased optimism about our direction, and thinking we are better now than 2022 and 2023.