moonslav59

Duran is a plus defender in CF and top 3 in LF. Story, when healthy is top 5 at SS and top 2-3 at 2B. Rafaela is top 5-6 in CF. Abreu is top 10 in RF/ Anthony should be above avg. Why would Devers be a dumpster fire at 1B? It might take a few weeks to adjust, but his main issue at 3B is not his glove or range, but his arm. Half his career errors are throwing.

I totally agree, but there is the aspect of how much a team thinks a position can be upgraded from within the system, and there is a significant chance those choices can go wrong or horribly wrong. Even adding someone from outside the system can go horribly wrong, as in Grissom's 2024 value. If you go by team positional fWAR : Catcher 20th: with Teel in the system, I doubt we go big, here. We may look for a decent 1 year deal- maybe even Jansen on a 1-2 year deal. 1B 22nd: but with a healthy Casas, I think they see 1B as a net plus, despite the poor D. Maybe near top 10 with a potential for top 6-7 in MLB. 2B 30th: has been a major thorn in our side since 2018, but with Story returning and Mayer & Campbell ML ready in 2025, plus decent play by DHam and Romy and Grissom lurking around, we will not add, here. SS 19th: thanks to Rafaela playing "out of position." I see SS like 2B. We will not add a SS. In fact we may trade Mayer or DHam. 3B 13th: we are not trading Devers or adding a 3Bman. The Devers move to 1B is likely a longshot idea for 2025, anyway. We stand pat, here and hope Devers has a decent year on D, like he has a couple seasons. OF 2nd to NYY: I'm lumping them together, in part to say no outside additions will be made, and with Anthony looking ML ready and Rafaela's likely return to FT CF, we should be top 2, again, here. DH13th: should be about the same in 2025, unless we find a taker for Yoshida. We will not add, here, and if we do trade Yoshida, an Abreu-Ref platoon could easily be a major improvement, here with Anthony in RF. To me, the next to positions scream for outside the system additions: Pitching 13th but has fallen off a cliff and is 0.5 WAR from being below average. SP12th: at 10.8, which is just 0.8 from 16th. Losing Pivetta will not help. His 1.7 fWAR ranks second on the Sox in SP WAR. I'm also not sure we can count on Crawford repeating 1.7, Houck repeating 3.7 and Criswell repeating 1.1. IMO, only Bello rates to repeat or improve on his 2024 fWAR 0f 1.6. Houck might be the other. RP 18th: but in reality is worse, and with the losses of Jansen (1.4) and Martin (0.8), it looks bottom 5-6, IMO. Jansen and Martin are #1 and #3 in RP WAR, this year. When you see Booser is #4, Weissert is #4 and Bernardino is #5, you know this is a high need area. Inside fixes might be Whitlock, Hendriks, Fulmer and a full season from Slaten, but that does not come close to improving our ranking. To me, we need: SP1 Closer Set-Up SP3 or RP 4 or 5. I doubt JH & Co see it this way. They likely think we need a SP3 and a couple decent set-up men.

If they seem him in that light, then maybe a deal can be made. I'm not sure how much appeal Yoshi has to the fanbase, or specifically the Asian fan base, but maybe some.

The idea is SEA needs hitting and Yoshida seems like an upgrade at DH over Garver and or Haniger. Is it enough to move the needle? Maybe not. Is his cost, even if we pay some of his contract a turn-off for SEA? Maybe- maybe not, especially if we pay a lot or take back Garver and or Haniger. I do not think SEA views the Castillo contract as a burden or net negative, but trading away the last few years of his contract does make some sense, if they use the savings to add a FA bat somewhere, thereby improve their offense at DH and another slot. To me, if I was SEA, I'd rather trade Castillo than 5 years of Miller, Gilbert or Kirby. Maybe even more than trading Woo. I've always liked Castillo, so I know I am biased, there, but I think we can come up with something that works for both teams. Our depth at offense is such that I think we can overpay there to get the upgrade we need at pitching. I think 4 or 5 of SEA's SP'ers would slot #1 for us. At worst, some might be #2's behind Houck, and that is precisely what we need.

I'd call our OF defense better than "decent." Having to use Rafaela at SS, so much hurt, but it is what it is. In terms of numbers, our OF D ranked: 2nd in DRS at 40 (just 2 from #1) T6 in OAA (13, which is 1 out away from being T 4th and 2 outs from T 3rd.) 13th in UZR150 (+1.3) a stat falling out of favor. I know you are not talking 2025, but an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu/Anthony looks top 2-3, to me. I agree our catching looks bottom 5, if not #30th. I agree that Casas and Devers are dumpster fires on D. Our middle IF was stabilized a bit, by Rafaela at SS and DHam-Romy at 2B, but it was still below average. The hope of a healthy Story seems to be more and more like some dream, but there is a chance he brings the MI up to plus status. Who plays 2B might affect that, but if it's DHam-Romy, I think we'd be a plus. Campbell and Grissom are largely unknown on 2B defense. EValdez should never play an inning at 2B for us, again. If all the stars align, maybe we see: Big PLus at SS, LF, CF Plus at RF and 2B Real Bad at 3B, 1B and C Moving Devers to 1B and Casas to DH or another team may change 1B to average and 3B to unknown. Teel may eventually improve the Catcher D, but these are big what ifs.

It may come down to us needing many of these guys to see an uptick in velo or spin rate or whatever, to make a jump in the rankings, but I am encouraged by the number of pitchers we have in our system that are poised to make a jump. Some don't need a big jump. Many will not improve. Some will look worse, next year. I'm usually not one to be happy about quantity over quality, but I think our quantity has enough quality to keep the hope alive. Perales already has been recognized as "having the stuff" needed. As with too many Sox pitchers, it comes down to health and role assigned. This group may not need a big jump: Priester (not a prospect,) Fitts, Monegro, Tolle, Sandlin, E R-C, Dobbins, Valera, D Reyes, Neely, Ingrassia These guys need to fix something, bigly or may settle into a RP role: Penrod, Wikelman, Early, Mullins, Paez, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygarrt, Dean, Carlson and Mata. While this second group does not look impressive, one-by-one, there are 12 listed, and the hope that 2-3 might jump, next year is not unrealistic. So, we can hope Perales gets healthy and one or two from Fitts, Priester or Dobbins can help in 2024. Add maybe 3-4 from the other 8 on the first group and 2-3 from the second group, and maybe we see 7-10 pitchers take meaningful jumps in 2025. Even if it's just 4-6 that take big jumps, that might be enough. 3-4 real big jumps may work even better. I might be overly optimistic. I get that way with our prospects, but I do think there is a lot of hope in our system, and more so than we've had in a long time.

I'd do this, despite the fact that of all the everyday positions, and all the strong depth we have, corner IF has the least depth of all. Presumably, we'd move Devers to 1B and use Story, Mayer or Campbell at 3B. Meidroth seems like a long shot to win the 3B job, but he may be the depth we need to not have to add a 3Bman over the winter. I think the trade works for SEA and TEX, but I'm not expert on what those teams need or want. By opening a position at 3B for Story, Mayer or Campbell, we lessen the logjam at middle infield. (I know it sounds funny to claim we have a logjam of talent at middle infield, when we have sucked at 2B and SS for 2 seasons, with 2B being 5 seasons in the making, but I am super high on Campbell and think between Mayer and Story, we can cobble together 162 games of healthy and plus play at SS.) I also like the utility combo of DHam and whoever becomes the RHB guy: Grissom or Romy. Sogard and Meidroth offer extended depth, and Romy or Wong can back up 1B. I really like Casas, and think his work ethic and batting skills are very good, if not great, but I realize we have to give to get. As much as I've been suggesting an Abreu trade, it does not mean I value him, lowly. I like him, a lot. He plays plus D in RF and is a top 30 batter in MLB, this year, but my optimism on Anthony is through the roof, and if we can get Miller without parting with a top 4 prospect, I'm all in. Doing this trade costs us no money. If rumors are true that we will not spend, aagin, this winter, I still think a limited budget should allow us to add two pitchers like Flaherty and Sewald. I'm not sure adding Miller, Flaherty and Sewald is enough, especially when you factor in losing Casas, O'Neill, Jansen, martin and Pivetta, but with the influx of prospects, I think we would be significantly better. Doing more would be great, and if we can shed Yoshi's contract and add another key pitcher and RHB, then WOW! That could be hard to do, and too pie in the sky concerning JH's willingness to spend more than we hope he will.

Just finished watching, and maybe this is all too little- too late, but it was a fun game to watch. We almost got Cole's ERA to go over 4.00. Devers retook the team OPS lead. Yoshida has established himself as our resident Yankee killer. Bello seems to be finding the groove we hoped he'd have all season long. The pen doing well was the real shocker, today. 3.2 IP 1 hit, 3BB 4Ks and ZERO Runs allowed. Nice to welcome Penrod, this way. Story's 3 hits is a bit encouraging. Erros by E Valdez and Devers did not lead to any runs, but keep the concern high on these two staying at their current positions for 2025. E Valdez still leads all Sox players with PAs at 2B in 2024. The call for Devers to 1B, sooner rather than later may start picking up some steam.

The Sea Dogs season ends, this weekend, while Woo's end next weekend. soxprospects comes out with their end of year rankings in November, but I'm not sure hos many changes will be made. I don't think anyone will graduate by then, but here is my rankings, as of now: 1. Anthony, 2. Campbell, 3. Mayer, 4. Teel 5. Montgomery, 6. Perales, 7. Arias 8. Cespedes, 9. Jh Garcia, 10. Bleis, 11. Meidroth, 12. Fitts 13. Romero, 14. Sandlin, 15. Tolle, 16. Jo Garcia 17. Monegro, 18. Dobbins, 19. E R-C, 20. Valera 21. Cason, 22. Guerrero, I'm not high on 16. Castro, 19. Penrod, 20. Wikelman, 28. Jordan and 30. Zanetello. My 23-30 are... D Reyes, Early, Mullins, Paez, Riemer, Ju Gonzales, Neely & Dean

I totally get your disgust for JH, but he just signed off on a $38M deal for Giolito, and the deal was giving SEA the 2Bman they need, not BOS. BOS gives up Grissom, and we still have our 2Bman. We dump Yoshi and add Castillo for a net cost of $30M over 3 years, or just $10M AAV per season.

I seem to remember you saying I Campbell was a good get by BOS, and for someone you and I agree was a non tender type player. I have no idea what Grissom is worth. His stock has fallen, despite the recent heating up in AAA. I am not an expert in the value of SEA players, as you well know and point out often enough, and I do not pay for BTV, so maybe Grissom for Collin Snider (as your GM loves trading away RP'ers, and we need some.) Maybe for 2 years of Thornton or 3 years of Saucedo?

No, that is not near impossible. The point was to go 4-3 then sweep MIN. That looks much harder to do, now. Not impossible, but maybe near impossible. The equation has changed in at least 2 ways: 1. We now need to go 4-1 in the nest 5 games, then 3-0 v MIN. 2. Our team looks worse after these last 2 losses than it did 3 days ago, when we were 4-2 in 6 recent games. I'd say 7-1 is near impossible, where as 7-4 was not so impossible.

I agree. We need to try and replace our low WAR players with ones of higher value, even if it does not always translate into more wins. Over the long haul, it should. Let's look at just a few key teams and their total fWAR values from 2023 to 2024 and compare to the W-L differentials: (I pro-rated the 2024 numbers based on 162 games) BOS: 78 wins in -23 to projected 81 wins (+3) and fWAR +9.0- P 13.7>14.7 (Pitching got better) B 13.2 >21.2 (Bats WAY BETTER) KCR: 56 wins to 89 (+33) and fWAR +22.5- P 8.0> 19.9 (Pitching got WAY BETTER)/ B 11.8>22.4 (Bats WAY BETTER) MIN: 87 wins to 86 wins (-1) and fWAR -0.6- P 20.3>18.8 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.3> 25.2 (Bats better) NYY: 82 wins to 95 (+13) and fWAR + 20.4- P 14.6> 15.0 (Pitching got better)/ B 13.5 >33.5 (Bats WAY BETTER) BAL: 101 wins to 91 (-10) and fWAR +3.5- P 18.3>17.3 (Pitching got worse)/ B 24.1 >28.6 (Bats better) HOU: 90 wins to 87 (-3) fWAR -3.2- P 15.2> 14.5 Pitching got worse)/ B 27.8> 25.3 (Bats worse) CLE: 76 wins to 92 (+16) fWAR +7.7- (P 15.0> 12.8 Pitching got worse)/ B 14.3 > 24.4 (Bats WAY BETTER) The correlation is not exact. In some cases, it's not close.

If you only go by past WAR, why do you want Grissom. There is a disconnect, here. Also, Garver has a -0.5 fWAR, this year and -$4.1M fangraph's value. Castillo's fWAR has gone 3.9>3.7>3.3>2.4 and is now under the value of his contract: Owed $21.6M a year. Fangraph's 2024 value (with a few starts to go) is $19.0M. Let's not get caught up in WAR as telling the whole story, only when it suits your position. Garver will make close to $13M and is giving -$4M value. Castillo is paid about $21M and gives about that value. Together, using WAR and contract cost, the Sox make out worse.

But we did add WAR but not wins from 2024 to 2024. You pointed that out when I said this team is better tna 2023's.

Exactly. No matter how you look at it, we swung and missed. I think you missed my point.

I wonder how people might view or change their views on Bloom, if we win a ring (or come close) by 2027 based mainly on a core of players Bloom acquired or did not trade away. Bloom certainly made a mess of bad moves, even when considering the context of his budget limits, while so many of our best players reached their big payday moments. He failed at what he was hired to do. Sure, he made some moves like some listed in this article, but he needed to make many more like his few success stories, and he did not. I do think he drafted well and helped set up a situation where Brez can take it a step forward, but that's about it.

It sure seems that way, but we also lost many a game due to our SP'ers being in an awful funk, or our batters going on long slumps. Our defense has consistently helped lose many games, all year long. Unearned runs allowed leaders: (The Sox are 7th worst in runs allowed, but 10th worst in earned runs allowed.) These are the bottom 10 teams in Earned Runs Allowed and how many Unearned runs they allowed: 78 BOS 76 WSH 73 MIA 70 CWS 64 OAK 57 COL 58 LAA 54 TOR 40 TEX 38 AZ MIN is 11th and allowed 47 UERs, BAL is 18th and let up 64 UERS, KCR is 21st with only 42 UERs, NYY is 22nd w 57 UERs allowed,

But if you see most pitchers who are ranked between 60 and 90 as back-end starters, then the argument is over semantics not the true skill level of what a #3 SP'er is in reality, in MLB today. The fact is, there just aren't that many really good SP'ers, but that does not mean a SP'er ranked somewhere around 60-90 is not a big improvement over a true "back-end" SP'er who may be ranked 91-150 or 110-160. Take a look at a top 150 SP'er list based on w hatever your stat or metric of choice is and look at those who fall between 60-90 vs those below and significantly below. IMO, the difference is stark. (Of course, I'd rather package Abreu with others and get a 1-2 slot pitcher, but I still think Abreu is good enough to get several pitchers ranked 60-90, or at worst 40-100 and not only ones ranked 100-150. What makes it difficult to project a possible is that when you look at all the names, you see pitchers who are at a different age, contract cost and or on teams that either don't need a RF'er or who also need pitching more than a RF'er. I get that point, and realize that most teams need better pitching more than better batting. That limits the trade pool, but in terms of something like fWAR, Abreu's WAR is higher than most on any 60-90 list you come up with. Also, many (not me) think everyday players have more value than 1 in 5 game players. The other thing about making a list of the top 150 SP'ers from say 2023 to 2024, it overvalues older pitchers on the downswing, pitchers who are now battling injuries and undervalues younger pitchers on the upswing. The list does not count years of control remaining or contract cost, nor team trade needs, but here is a list based on fWAR from 2023-2024. I had to set the IP level to 150 IP total for 2 seasons to get the sample size to 150, which is pretty telling in a major way, but here it is, if you want to look. Try to get a good idea of what the skill level is for pitchers in the 25-65 range vs those in the 85-155 range. If you still think Abreu is more likely to only get back an 85-155 pitcher vs a 55-95 one, then we are in disagreement. If you don't then the debate is really about what we think a #3 SP'er is. (open the link, if you wish.) Here are some of the more well-known pitchers by slotting with my methodology: (It's not meant to say we should or can trade one for one.) #3: Berrios, Pivetta, Stroman, Taillon, Schmidt, Bello, ERod, Fedde, Jake Irvin, Lorenzen #4: Blackburn, T Walker, L Lynn, Paxton, Quantrill #5: Maeda, Stripling, Martin Perez, Carrasco, Kopech Do you really think Abreu could bring back just a Martin Perez type SP'er and not a Pivetta-Lorenzen type? (I chose those names, because we know how good they are.) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&qual=150&pagenum=1&pageitems=200

I get the whole anti-SP'er ranking argument, and with so many stats and metrics swirling around, it's hard to get any consensus on which pitchers are top 30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-120 and 121-150. Plus, many have good reason to dispute that dividing them in this way is the way to determine who is a #1, 2, 3, 4 or 5. There is no set way to rank starters that even a large minority can agree on. That being said, the point about breaking SP'ers into groups based on their skill levels and or projected skill levels does help a person explain more accurately what type of pitcher a team needs to improve. Surely, we all agree that adding a better pitcher should help more than adding a mediocre pitcher, and that mediocre is better than adding one that is barely good enough or promising enough to even make the average team's rotation. We use the terms 1-2-3-4-5 to try and distinguish more precisely the skill level of a pitcher in question. There will always be debates about what that exact skill level is, like who was better, Stroman or Gio, last winter, but also, were either of them good enough to fit the needs our rotation had, last winter. We sometimes hear our team need rotation depth, and I don't disagree, but IMO, adding mediocre or borderline worthy rotation SP'ers is a losing strategy. It might have its place on a team that limits its budget, tightly, at times, but I don't see a team improving that much by adding a SP'er who is as good or worse than our 5th best SP'er. Can that help? Sure, especially if that guys does well, but the chances of a borderline rotation pitcher doing better that expected is lower than getting a better pitcher than a #5. I've often stated that, in theory, getting a solid #1, or a SP'er better than your #1, actually improves not only the #1 slot, but the 2-3-4 and 5 slots as well, plus it adds the depth piece by making your #5 the #6. I still believe this as a theory, but I fully understand that the fact is, we just replaced our #5 with a #1 and added depth is the bottom line. Of course, it can all be blown up by an injury or unexpected steep decline, or adding a solid #3, who has #1 season can do the opposite, but a GM has to work the odds and try and get the best he can, under his given circumstances. To me, we need an ace, a number one, a really good SP'er, or as I like to frame it, a top 30 SP'er for 2025. You can call it anything you want. You can disagree with any pitcher I or someone else thinks is a top 30, a number 1 or just a "damn good SP'er." All those debates will never end, and rightfully should not, but the basic principle is a sound one: it's better to build up a staff by adding high quality arms than by trying to slightly improve the lower skilled pitchers by replacing them with mediocre ones. I'm not saying doing the latter is a bad thing, but to me, the Sox don't need better mediocre pitchers: we need top quality pitchers, with an emphasis on the "s." as in plural. Once a season gets started, the 1-2-3-4-5 thing gets muddled, but I would rather see Houck start the 2025 season's 3rd game vs another team's #3, than be our opening day starter. We'd improve our odds of winning not just game 1-2 and 3, but also 4 and 5 by moving our 2-3's to games 4 & 5, and so on...

That's fine, and those numbers do have significant meaning. I see a better team and way more reason to be optimistic than I did before this season started. Again, the disclaimer that in no way am I playing into the JH & Co. scam by saying this. We could and should be much better. We can and should be much better, next year with just a limited increases in our winter spending budget and the okay given that a top prospect can be traded. Will that happen? I'm not expecting it, but it's not impossible, either.

It wasn't a prediction, but yes, 4-3 looks nearly impossible, now. Last night's game was brutal, because things looked pretty good, even knowing the state of our pen. It is what it is, and it ain't pretty.

To CWS: M. Mayer, Grissom & Yoshida + $8M x 3 years To BOS: G Crochet & T Banks Sign: Flaherty, Jansen & Sewald ___________________ SP: Crochet, Houck, Flaherty, Bello, Crawford (Criswell, Fitts & Priester) RP: Hendriks, Sewald, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Criswell,/Fitts/Priester (Fulmer/Weissert/Guerrero/I Campbell/Kelly/Bernardino) C: Wong & Jansen (Teel) 1B: Casas (Wong/Romy) 2B: Campbell, DHam (Romy/Meidroth) SS: Story, Romy (Sogard/Meidroth/Campbell) 3B: Devers (Romy/Meidroth) LF: Duran (Refsnyder/ EValdez) CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony/Campbell) RF: Anthony (Abreu/Refsnyder) DH: Abreu-Refsnyder platoon (Gasper/E Valdez) I think this would even satisfy JH & Co.'s miser ways. Line-Up: 1. L Duran 2. R Campbell 3. L Devers 4. L Anthony 5. R Story 6. L Casas 7. L Abreu-R Refsnyder 8. R Wong- L Teel 9. R Rafaela

You ... errr, I mean your friend.... prefers Grissom to DHam?