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Everything posted by moonslav59
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It. sadly, means everything. I never said otherwise. His sample size at 2b means nobody knows, if he is an upgrade on D over DHam and Romy at 2B. We do know they both looked pretty good on D, last year, at 2B. Campbell may or may not be better than Bregman on D. WE DO KNOW Bregman is was better at 3B D than Devers. To me, even if Bregman plays decent to GG D at 2B, doesn't change the fact that our defense would be way better with Bregman at 3B and a combo of DHam-Romy or Campbell at 2B than Devers at 3B and Bregman at 2B. Does anyone, even Cora, doubt this? This choice is made to keep Devers as happy as possible. Let's not sugarcoat that. It's not the first time this sort of thing has been done in MLB history, and it's not claiming there no value attached to keeping your best players happy. It's something Cora had to weigh, and he made his choice, apparently. Of course, it's based on the opinion that Bregman can play plus defense at 2B. Cora knows Bregman better than any of us, but that is just one aspect of the choice being made. I'm liking the Bregman signing more and more as I dive into the data, like his numbers at Fenway and his immense leadership abilities, but it seems clear to me, his value is maximized by playing 3B. The value of Devers increases, when he is at DH or 1B, but this assumes he's not pouting and having his offense decline, as a result. I don't view Devers as a pouter, so I do see the issue like some do, and maybe how Cora sees the issue. Maybe Cora talked to Devers and walked away thinking he cannot move him off 3B. In that sense, he certainly knows more than we do. I'm still a big Cora supporter, and deep down, I think Bregman will end up at 3B, just like Story ended up at SS. I'm most happy about seeing JH deciding to break the cycle of cheapness. I don't see Bregman as the savior vs LHPs or as the "big bat" we needed, but his offense is a plus. I've repeated the .795 OPS since 2020 often enough, but I also point out the .795 comes to a 120 OPS+, so that is very nice.
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Your claim that Bregman is an "instant upgrade" on defense is dubious, at best, as long as he plays 2B over DHam-Romy or maybe even Campbell. It will instantly improve the defense, the second he plays 3B.
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Article: Triston Casas and the Price of Bat Speed
moonslav59 replied to Maddie Landis's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
I'm very high on the 2025 season for Casas. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The suggested trade in no way blocks Campbell, Anthony or Mayer. In fact, it helps ease the move of Bregman to 3B and Devers to 1B, which takes Bregman off 2B's block of Campbell. Trading Yoshida means no OF time for him, and more for others, like Anthony. -
I view Stroman as depth, or someone who might allow us to move Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen. Our current 2B depth chart, without Grissom: Campbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela (Mayer or Story)
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He's paid the same as Yoshida, who is part of the trade. I would not call Contreras "middling." He is also aging very well: OPS+ 106 in '20> 109>126>123>136 in 2025 8th in FWAR from 2022-24 for Catchers at 8.4. Yes, his D is questionable, but he led all catchers in wRC+ since '22 at 147. He blows away all but one catcher in OPS: .885 Willson C .859 William C .791 Murphy .785 Realmuto .771 Perez Wong is 14th at .731. I also mentioned Herrera or Pages. -
If Devers really likes playing D, let him learn 1B. The bar is set very low with Casas at 1B, now. He does not have to be even plain bad to be better than the horrific Casas on D. He won't need to throw much at 1B, either, thereby saving his shoulder. A 1B/DH pair-share with Casas might allow both to get 680+ PAs by playing 160 games, each, as they rest while DH'ing.
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I had a sneaky feeling the amount of deferred money was set up to keep us under the tax line for 2025. $566K does not leave much in season wiggle room, unless we dump a salary. The obvious choice would be Yoshida, but then we instantly realize, it's not so obvious. Nobody wants that contract. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but with Bregman at 3B, I'm really liking how this roster came together and think we can make a major stride, this year. I'm a huge fan of defense- maybe because I sucked at hitting after little league, but I was good at D and baserunning. Hoping for Story to play a full year is feeling like the Sale saga, but with Mayer in the wings and Rafaela looking much better than Kike & Co, I feel better about SS. Although DHam's sample size is small, the metrics back up my eye test on him being a plus defender at 2B. Romy looked good, too. That platoon at 2B or seeing Campbell there FT makes me feel much better about our keystone combo's defense than I have in over a decade. Rafaela and or Duran in CF only adds to my pleasure over our up-the-middle defense. (Only the Catcher mucks up my dream.) The joy over the improved D, "up the middle" could also be spread to our corner IF and RF positional improvements that are now possible, due to the Bregman signing and O'Neill departure. I've mentioned my opinion too many times, already (Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas on a pair-share of 1B/DH.) To me, we could see gains on D at both corner slots. On RF, Abreu is real good on D. Either he learns to hit LHPs and becomes a FT GG-type RF'er, or we can platoon Rafaela with him (NOT Refsnyder, unless it's an away game in a park with a short RF.) I know- I know: Rafaela is our best defensive CF'er, but to me, the step down to Duran is a tiny one, and Rafaela has a better arm for RF than Duran or Ref. If Anthony busts down the door, he could play CF or RF vs LHPs and CF vs RHPs with Duran in CF vs LHPs and LF vs LHPs. (Ref plays LF vs LHPs.) Now, to my controversial and seemingly contradictory position: Our best offensive line-up would see Yoshida in it over Rafaela. One could argue over DHam-Romy, too, and destroy the D by putting Bregman at 2B, Devers at 3B, Casas at 1B and Yoshida-Ref at DH. That would improve the OF defense, but could make 3 infield positions worse. I know making our LF defense poor is check in the negative column, but this line-up looks sweet and all but LF and C looks good on D): 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Campbell 2B (Or LDHam/R Romy batting 8th at 2B) 6. L Yoshida/ R Refsnyder LF (or maybe 5th w no Campbell) 7. R Story SS (or 5 or 6th w no Campbell) 8. L Abreu/R Rafaela RF (or 7th w no Campbell) 9. R Wong/Narvaez C
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Article: Triston Casas and the Price of Bat Speed
moonslav59 replied to Maddie Landis's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
I still think 2025 might be a huge bustout year for Casas. Please, do NOT trade him. -
He probably will start the year at 2B. One sign will be seeing or not seeing Devers practice or play some games at 1B. It would be hard to switch him over there, during the season. (To DH would be easier, but if he likes playing D, I'm thinking he'd prefer 1B to DH.) I hope Cora can talk Devers into doing the right thing for the team. I remember ARod moving to 3B, when he was even a better defensive SS than Jeter, because it seemed like the right thing to do. If Devers remains adamant about staying at 3B, it really puts the pressure on Cora. Nobody knows how good or bad Bregman might be at 2B, but I'm pretty sure Campbell would be better on D. I even think a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B would play better D than Bregman. I'm thinking : Bregman > Grissom on D. Playing Bregman at 2B and Devers at 3B could make two positions weaker, and if Devers can be better than Casas on 1B D, maybe 3 positions get worse, just to keep Devers happy. All I'm hearing down here in Houston is how they can replace Bregman's leadership skills, and how he helped so many Astros over the year. How he even learned Spanish, so he coudl talk to all the players on the team. Maybe, he can bring that much needed leadership to the Sox. Gotta like the 1.250 career OPS at Fenway. I'm liking the signing, more and more, but this whole playing 2B thing irks me, bigtime.
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No to Bregman at 2B.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We traded our catching prospect, and catching is one of our weakest areas. -
It was said tongue in cheek. Bregman plays 2B, so Devers won't pout. Nice losing strategy, folks.
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They already said he will be, so there is that. The worst choice is playing Masas at DH, so Bregman can play 2B, Devers 3B and Casas 1B.
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There is just no way I trade Casas, so we can find room for Yoshida to get ABs without playing in the OF.
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Article: In Alex Bregman, the Red Sox Got Their Guy
moonslav59 replied to Daniel Fox's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Very nice article. Hearing a lot down here in Houston about the loss of Bregman's clubhouse attitude and how he helped this guy and that. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
How desperate is STL to trade Arenado, now? It appears the Sox were their best chance. Apparently, Bregman agreeing to play 2B was part of the Sox choice. I still can't believe we paid $40M per for a .795 hitter to play off position. Arendao did agree to play 1B, but unless we trade Casas, it makes no sense talking to STL, anymore. They don't want Masa, but they could still cut some major budget by adding Contreras to the deal. Would anyone trade Casas & Yoshida (no money) for Arenado (no money) and Contreras? How about Arenado & a Catcher from Herrera or Pages? (We'd have to add cash.) -
I'm 99% certain Yoshida begins the season with the Sox. He will be on the 26 or the 10 Day IL. He still has value, even if Devers and Casas are moved to a near FT pair-share of 1B & DH. He cannot build more value, if he doesn't play. There are other players that still have something to prove or think they have earned a right to show 2024 was no fluke. Abreu might feel he deserves a chance to play FT. Refsnyder has every right to believe he should start vs every LHP, either at DH or corner OF. Rafaela probably thinks he deserves a FT role in CF or as a CF/utility guy that plays 150 games. Duran has earned a FT role, but where? LF, CF or both? Anthony must think 2025 is his call-up year. Yoshida probably think he deserves to play everyday, or at least vs every RHP, as a DH or short corner OF. That's 6 guys for 3 OF slots, without mentioning Campbell's ability to play OF. The DH slot could be a Dever-Casas share with 1B or a Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon, or someway to mix and match. 1B: Casas or Devers and Casas. 3B: Bregman or Devers, or both. SS: Story with Mayer waiting for his shot. (Rafaela & Romy as depth) 2B: Campbell FT? Bregman FT or to start of at 2B or some share set-up at 2B and 3B? DHam-Romy platoon to start 2025? DHam-Grissom platoon? I have to think DHam thinks he should get serious consideration as a platoon at 2B. His D was plus. He stole a ton of bases in half a season. He hit RHPs, pretty well, after his slow start. Add Wong and Narvaez and I'm not sure how many players I mentioned, but it's way over 13.
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I meant Haniger. My bad. The only advantages we get is that Haniger bats RH'd and could possibly platoon with Abreu (esp in away parks) and has one year left to pay. He could end up being traded or DFA'd, if Anthony gets the call. This is purely about getting out from as much of Masa's deal as possible. I like DHam and have not given up on Grissom, yet, but they seem to be squeezed, now, and certainly when Campbell gets the call.
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I mentioned DHam as he bats LH'd, and we just added a RHB IF'er. His value is higher than Grissom, so maybe we could save more on Masa by sending him over Grissom. (I guess BTV says $10M more.) Masa+ $12-20M & Grissom for Garver. Masas +$2-12M & DHam for Garver.
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Well said. I have to think the more Bregman plays 3B, the better we will be, but certainly times may arise, where other options might work out the same or better. If Devers and Casas are mainly pair-sharing 1B/DH, they may be able to play close to 160 games, there, but Bregman will need some rest, so Devers might play 5-10 games at 3B. Masa could DH on those days. He could play LF on some other days, when Ref (v LHPs) or Duran are not in LF. How well Rafaela does might dictate how much Duran plays CF vs LF, and how many opportunities Masa and Refsnyder get in LF (vs a DH platoon.) How well Abreu hits LHPs can have an influence on CF and LF playing time for Duran and Rafaela. When Anthony gets the call can have a major influence, at some point. There are so many moving parts, options and opportunities for several players to shine or shift to another position, things could get very interesting if more than 9 guys are doing well (or more as parts of a platoon.) Catcher is pretty set with Wong and Narvaez, but Narvaez could gain more and more playing time. 3B: Devers or Bregman (or a mix) 1B: Casas or Casas & Devers DH: Casas, Casas & Devers or Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon 2B: Campbell? Bregman? A platoon of DHam & Romy or DHam & Grissom SS: Sory, if healthy. Mayer, if not. Rafaela or Romy in a pinch. LF: Duran. Duran w Masa/Ref. Masa-Ref platoon almost exclusively. CF: Rafaela. Duran & Rafaela. Anthony? RF: Abreu FT. Abreu-Rafaela platoon? Anthony FT (Anthony RF v LHPs and CF vs RHPs?) It's enough to get the head spinning like the exorcist.

