moonslav59

I think I'd rather have a healthy Whitlock as the closer and Hendriks & Slaten as the 1-2 set-up men. Fulmer offers some high end upside, but I hate counting on 2 guys to come back from long IL stints (Hendriks & Fulmer.) It's like we are moving our SP acquisition plan to pen arms, Sign injured pitchers and roll the dice.

I realize this, but the second part of Bloom's role was to find lower cost players that produced over their pay grade. He had a few hits: Pivetta, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Arroyo for a couple years. A few one year players did okay to fine, like Wacha, Hill, Strahm and the one year we had Renfroe, but mostly, he failed miserably with the Tampa Bay Way. I'm not sure Brez will have the tight budgets Bloom had for 4 years, but yes, you are right. Brez has young players- many still pre-arb and no stars like Betts, Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale and others coming up on big payday years. Losing Jansen, Martin, O'Neill and Pivetta pales in comparison to what Bloom had to watch walk out the door, then try to replace with a shoe box budget. The years of control on our core players is in great shape, and so many are pre-arb or year one arb players that his budget will not have the same stresses Bloom had. If we knew JH would spend big, again, this would be great news, but it may end up just being a way for JH to make more money, instead. I'm not pinning my hopes on JH opening up his wallet, again, but in reality, if we keep our budget about the same, we should still get a lot better, starting in 2025 and maxing out around 2027, unless prospects like Arias, Cespedes, Perales, Bleis, the Garcia brothers and others jump like Campbell did. I have to think the unbalanced nature of our 26 and 40 man roster, as well as the top farm prospects towards everyday players will be addressed, this winter and maybe beyond. The Dugo for 3 pitchers and Yorke for Priester deal could just be signs of more to come. Adding Slaten, Sandlin, Criswell and I Campbell may help, too. I'm very optimistic about our extended future, despite my trepidation over the continuing tight budgets.

One area that has to be addressed, this winter, is the pen. We used a stunning 27 players in the pen- 25, if you throw out D Smith and P Reyes. 21 pitched 4+ IP, 15 pitched 13+ IP and 10 pitched 24+. Only 9 pitched over 25 IP (all were over 42 IP.) Many are no longer in the system or are out of team control. They are: 54.2 Jansen (2 in IP) 50.1 Anderson (5) 43.1 Martin (8) 14.1 L Garcia (13) 13.0 Sims (15) 6.0 Pivetta, 4.0 Ueasawa, 3.2 R Hill, 2.1 Wingenter, 1.2 Jacques, 1.1 Y Ramirez. So, throw out these 11 and the 2 everyday players that pitched and we are down to 14 returning pen arms, plus Hendriks, Fulmer and some prospects that may get a shot. Here is a look at each pitcher that may see time in the 2025 Sox pen: Liam Hendriks: He will be 36 when the 2025 season starts. He led the league in saves in 2021 for the CWS. From 2019 to 2022, he had a 0,883 WHIP and 2.26 ERA in 239 IP (60 per season) Frankly, I'm sick and tired of hoping on pitchers returning from a long injury to return to form, but I'm pretty sure JH, Brez, Baily & Co. will view him as our closer or top set-up man. As much as I'd love to see us add a solid, proven closer, it won't happen. Hoping we add a solid set-up man is likely a pipedream. Justin Slaten: He might be the only pitcher in our system, right now that I have confidence in for high leverage situations and 60+ IP in 2025. His injury this year, may have been more impactful than others that got more press. His .578 OPS Against was second to only Jansen. Garrett Whitlock: This is a guy I think can make a huge and positive impact on our pen, if we indeed use him exclusively from the pen, and he can stay healthy and give us 60+ IP. His OPS Against in his best years: .631 '21, .639 '22 and .616 '24. He could be anything from our closer, to our top set-up man or used as a 2-3 IP RP'er every 3-4 days. To me, we have these 3 pitchers and then the rest are "depth." I'm fine with expecting 3-4 to make the 26 as low to mid leverage pitchers, but the rest should be AAA depth or traded/let go. Most likely to make 26: (IP in 2024 w ERA, WHIP & OPSA) 62 Weissert 3.21/ 1.36/ (most RP IP on Sox) I think they view him as having a very good chance at being in the opening day 8 man pen. 53 Winckowski 4.96/ 1.557/.757. He pitched much better in 2022 and 2023, so maybe that carries him to the opening day roster. Michael Fulmer is very hard for me to project. I think they signed him thinking he was a sure bet for the 2025 roster, but too much is unknown for me to pencil him in for the opening day 26. Hard to project: SP'ers who may be used in middle/long relief roles and spot starters/openers: Fitts, Criswell, Priester and Dobbins. 49 Kelly 4.39/ 1.347/ .690. He shows a lot of promise, but his 4.3 BB/9 was the worst on the staff. 47 Bernardino 4.37/ 1.458/ .752. He's one of our few LHP'ers and was very effective over the second half of 2023, and the first half of 2024 (.588 OPSA). 7 I Campbell 16.20/ 2.400/ 1.175. He showed a lot of promise with SEA, before being traded to the Sox for Urias. I'm not sure how much of his struggles were injury-related, but I think we have to view him as AAA depth to start the '25 season, unless he shows he is "in form." 9 Guerrero 0.00/ 0.889/.476. He was going to be Rule 5, this winter, so I think we just decided to add him, this summer. He is going to be on the 40, but I'm not sure about the 26 on opening day. 4 Penrod 2.25/ 1.750/ .667. I've never been very high on him, but he does have some real promise. I think he starts off in AAA. Bubble Pitchers for even the 40 man roster: Cam Booser, Chris Murphy, Bryan Mata (out of options,) Bailey Horn and Chase Shugart and Wikelman Gonzalez. AAA depth with very slim hopes of making the 40: Wyat Mills, Isaac Coffey (SP,) Shane Drohan (SP,) Grant Gambrell (SP,) Brendan Cellucci, David Sandlin (Rule 5 in DEC '25) I'd like to see us add a closer, a good set-up man and a solid LH'd RP'er, but I'd be surprised if we add 2 proven RP'ers. I think we add a LH'd RP'er and a decent RP'er or two that just add to the mix. Only Mata is out of options, so we can keep a lot of these guys in the AAA pen and rotation as we guage who is the best to get the first shot at filling in a pen slot on the 26. I think we have enough RP'ers with promise to have enough pen depth, but we simply cannot count on Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock as the only solid bets. I just can't see our pen being a plus with the other 5 slots all filled in by guys we currently have on the 40 and farm. 2, maybe 3 slots, okay, but not 4-5.

I agree, and I was just thinking of posting about our pen, and who we should bring back next year or replace. It is so hit or miss, that it seems like almost everyone should come back, at least as AAA depth, in hopes that some do better, and you ride their horse for as long as you can. Acquiring good RP'ers is probably more hit or miss than SP'ers. You mentioned Monty, but last year a lot of marginal SP signings ended up doing well and even very well, and many of them were mentioned as landing spots for the Sox. While Monty got a lot of talk, much of that was because he was one of the last guys standing. I was very high on Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and luke warm on a few others that did well, like Wacha, Flaherty and lower cost risk Severino.

bWAR: 3.7 Houck 2.5 Crawford 1.9 Pivetta 1.7 Bello 0.7 Criswell Average bWAR & fWAR: 3.8 Houck 2.3 Crawford 2.0 Pivetta 1.9 Bello 0.9 Criswell

1.6 Pivetta, who might have just pitched his last game with the Sox. BTW, he's at 2.0, now. 3.9 Houck, 2.0 Bello & Pivetta and 1.9 Crawford. If Crawford has a good game, today, we could have 4 SP'ers over 2.0 SIERA: 3.31 Pivetta, 3.73 Houck, 4.08 Crawford, 4.13 Bell0, 4.45 Criswell xFIP 3.50 Pivetta, 3.58 Houck, 3.87 Bello, 4.35 Crawford, 4.43 Criswell ERA-: 73 Houck, 96 Criswell, 97 Pivetta, 98 Crawford, 105 Bello I'm not so sure we can expect Giolito to match Pivetta's numbers or Fitts to match Criswell's. Can we also count on Houck, Crawford and Bello to all go 160+ IP with equal of better numbers?

The Guardians had the best record in MLB in late June, and are something like 41-41 since then. It's been a weird year. Several of the best teams in MLB had some awful stretches.

I heard Duran is the first MLB player to his 10 triples, 20 HRs, steal 30 bases and hit 40 doubles, but I see Witt has done it, too. Bobby Witt has 45 2Bs, 32 HRs and 31 SBs and 11 3Bs. Alfonso Soriano was the only MLB player to ever hit 40 HRs, 40 Doubles and steal 40 bases. Jose Ramirez is close, this year: 38 HR, 38 2B and 41 SBs. Ohtani created the 50 HR and 50 SB club and is 1 HR from making it the 55-55 club (54 HRs and 57 SB.) He might also create a 50-60 club with 3 SBs. He has 38 2Bs, so he could reach the 40-40-40 club mentioned with Jose Ramirez. How about Soto's season? 127 BB and 118 Ks. (Judge was 133-166.) Pretty sad that the Sox had nobody with over 83 RBI. Strange that Rafaela is tied for second on the team with 75. Have the Sox ever had 2 other players, besides Duran & DHam, with 30+ SBs, in the same season?

The Rays are ranked 20th in MLB at 79-81. One could easily argue the league is mediocre, this year, but one could also say 20 teams are at just 2 wins from .500 or better. (.494+) Can saying 20 teams are decent or better be the c ase? (I'm leaning towards a no. The league is mediocre, instead.) Only 6 teams are at .465 or lower. Last year, it was 8 with 2 at .469. in 2022, 12 teams were below .457. (10 in 2021.)

We've come up just short way too often, this year.

You must be really happy, now.

No, it isn't. I'm not sure, at his age, if bringing him back would have been a good idea, especially under the assumption that our winter spending budget may be highly restricted, but I see him as a better option than anyone else we have in the system.

I'm not sure it matters much. Remember how pissed we were when our comp picks dropped, because we stupidly went over the tax line? Well, we got Campbell with one of those "worse" comp picks. I'd like to finish 3rd not 4th, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter much.

They never need to be, if we settle on Mayer or Campbell at 3B. I have Casas as the FT DH, unless Devers needs a rest day, and I'd rather have Devers rest more often as a DH than sitting out full games. On those days, if Casas is not due for a rest, he can play 1B over Devers. Unless there is an injury, 162 games can be by Casas (150) and CDevers (12.) For 2025, I actually think an Abreu-Ref platoon at DH would outhit Yoshida, but I have us trading Abreu. Maybe an E Valdez-Ref DH platoon, if someone gets hurt?

Exactly, and that makes decisions a little tougher, once the season starts. Any 60 Day Il players need to be added once the season starts, and not before, so that might be one way to "add" one or two to the 40. The other thing is, none of these 5 will be added to the 40, until they are needed on the 26, and then none will be added to the 26 to "ride the bench," so basically, until we think one of these 4 or 5 are ready to start FT or very near FT, they will not even be on the 40. It's kind of interesting to have so many players like this, all at once. We are not used to having prospects jump faster than their Rule 5 date. Mayer & Meidroth are Rule 5 in DEC '26 Anthony, Campbell & Teel in DEC '27!

I'd protect JH Garcia and Monegro. The interesting part about our 40 man roster situation is that 5 of our most ML ready prospects, right now, are NOT even Rule 5 eligible, this winter: Anthony Mayer Campbell Teel Meidroth We already added Fitts, Penrod & Guerrero. (Gasper, too, but he may be DFA'd or traded, especially if don't see him as a back-up catcher- something he did not di, when called up.)

Well said, and anybody we give up to get Gilbert does not mean we undervalue them or "gave up on them." To me, trading someone for Gilbert would actually show I value them very highly, because he is one heel of a pitcher, who also has many years of team control at arb cost.

One valid argument is that we have settled for mediocre pitching in hopes the improve, like Houck did, this year. It's been more about adding quantity rather than top quality. I've never been a fan of that philosophy, although pitching depth is essential to winning, too. That being said, and to Max's point about the WAR we got from pitchers making min wage or near it, the Sox had 5 SP'ers with 85+ IP and an fWAR at 1.0 or better. By my count, only 6 other teams had that. We had 4 pitchers with 130+ IP and an fWAR at 1.6 or better: 3.9 Houck, 2.0 Bello, 1.9 Crawford and 1.6 Bello. Only 4 other teams had that: KCR: 4 at 2.5+ SEA: 4 at 2.3+ WSH: 4 at 1.7+ HOU: 4 at .6+ In one way, this is very nice: in another way, I can see JH saying, we have 4 coming back with 1.)+ and add Gio, so we are all set.

I like what Max said, but I think Sox fans do "care" about winning and losing, even if they keep buying tickets when we lose. I'm not sure JH cares, if we care or not. I hope he throws a bone to Brez- a bigger one than he threw Bloom in any of his 4 years. If he doesn't, we'll be stuck hoping Brez can do what Bloom simply could not do: find enough bargain basement deals that turn to gold, or at least silver. In theory, we could just keep the budget about the same or raise it slightly, and Brez could have a pretty good chunk of change to improve the team, but there would be very little room for error. No injured $19M pitcher. No signings made with 2026 in mind. No trades like Sale-Grissom.

If we trade Yoshida, it should be to allow Casas to DH with Devers when he needs a rest. Give me some names of pitcher salary dumps from teams that might want a DH.

If we trade Yoshida, it should be to allow Casas to DH with Devers when he needs a rest. Give me some names of pitcher salary dumps from teams that might want a DH.

What I think happens: We trade Abreu and DHam for good pen arms. We sign a #3/4 slot SP'er ($10-12M/1 or $20M/2) and a decent set up man ($6-8M/1 or $12M/2.) Maybe, we add a decent back-up catcher on a 1 yr deal and try to strike gold with another Criswell type. What I hope: We trade Yoshida plus cash for nothing special. (We move Casas to DH and Devers to 1B and hand 2B/3B to Maayer, Campbell, Grissom & Meidroth. We trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for the best pitchers we can find. We spend our whole winter budget on the best SP'er the budget can find. SP: Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Bello, Giolito (Depth: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, __FA__) RP: __Trade__, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Fitts, Criswell, Fulmer, Penrod (Depth: Bernardino, Guerrero, Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart, Mata, Horn) 1. Duran LF/CF 2. Campbell 2B (3B) 3. Anthony RF 4. Devers 1B (3B) 5. Casas DH (1B) 6. Story SS 7. Mayer 3B (SS/2B) 8. Rafaela CF v R/ Refsnyder LF vs L 9. Wong C Bench: __C2__, Dham, Grissom & Ref/Raf (Minor League Depth: C Teel, 1B Romy/Gasper, 3B, 2B, SS Meidroth & Romy/Sogard, OF/DH E Valdez)

Nice article. A lot of these grades are based on expectations, otherwise Devers gets an A+. I'll go... C- Casas: too much time misses. A Devers forevers B Romy did more than anyone can have hoped for F Grissom: maybe my expectations, but he fell way short in '24. B+ DHam, perhaps the biggest difference from the article. C+ Rafaela, despite the poor D, he stabilized a shaky situation. C Sogard was exactly what I expected D Story, since I admire how he fought to come back in September D- E Valdez, perhaps the worst defense possible at 2B.

They likely looks at years of control very closely, and not just of the two players involved. Let's say the are considering trading 5 years of Abreu for 2 years of a pitcher (not named Crochet.) They may not think losing those 3 years of Abreu starting in 2017 is such a big loss, since we have Anthony, Jh Garcia and others that can and should step in and maybe be even better than Abreu. Sure, it's all speculation, but such is the mindset of every GM.

I've said the same thing numerous times. I would also not be surprised if one of the 3 are held back beyond the date of gaining an "extra year" of team control. I could see Tell not joining the 26 until May of 2026. My point was what it COULD be.