moonslav59

So why more concern about Bregman?

True, but Soto might get 14-15 years. Soto has two more years in prime, but both contracts may end up around the same age on the back end.

Marwin pre 2017: 90 OPS+ Marwin 2017: 146 OPS+ Marwin after 2017: 83 OPS+ Bregman in 2016 116 OPS+ (rookie year) 125 OPS+ in 2017 157 in 2018-2019 122 OPS+ 2020>>>

Even if we sign Soto, I won't be able to avoid asking, "Why didn't we just extend Betts for half that cost?"

So, if it's not the Mets, you think the other 29 teams have exactly the same odds. Got it.

Just don't say 100% or 75% or 51%, right?

If we don't get Burnes at a cost of about $29M x 7 or Fried, who may cost $28M x 6, besides trading for someone, not many look to be all that much better than Pivetta. Here in MLBTR's top SP'ers with estimates +about $1M a year: $24M x 5 Flaherty $23M x 2 Nate $21M x 3 Manaea $20M x 3 Pivetta (MLBTR has $21M x 1) $18M x 3 Severino Nope: $16M x 1 Scherzer, $15M x 1 Buehler, $13M x 1 Verlander, Gibson or Bieber (Nope: $13M x 2 Heaney or $10M x 2 Quintana) Nobody jumps out as being much of an improvement over losing Pivetta. Nate looks good, but his age and injury history are worse than Nick's. I'd rather have Nick than nobody, and he's pretty close to everyone on this list.

Indeed, same as you thinking Cohen will never be outbid.

My $240M roster: $45M x 14 Soto $29M x 9 Devers $27M x 6 Fried $23M x 3 Story 19M x 1 Giolito $18M x 3 Yoshida $11M x 4 Hoffman $11M x 1 Chapman $9M x 5 Bello $6M x 7 Rafaela $5M x 1 Hendriks $2M x 1 Wilson & Refsnyder $12M x 1 Arbs for Houck, Duran & Crawford $207M +$19M player benefits & arb pool + $10M (14 Players on ML roster) + $4M (14 players on 40 in minors)

I could have said... The Mets have the best chance but not as good as the other 4 teams combined. The Sox have the second best shot, but with 5 teams involved, chances are not good. The rest have slight or lesser chances.

Good stuff. I did not know that about "X" FIP. Giving up bombs has been a big issue with our staff, of late, including some of the guys I suggested Pivetta was better than in our current rotation set-up. Is it worth paying big money to slightly improve our 4 or 5 slot? I'd say no, but if we miss out on Soto, we need to make up for it in more areas than just adding Fried, Hoffman, a RHB and a catcher. Of course, I'd rather do better than Pivetta, even if we add Fried or Burnes. Adding Scott or Hoffman would make more sense and be cheaper. Having two guys, Pivetta and Crawford, in the rotation with a 1/7 HR/9 rate is two too many.

I found it interesting that his slider has more velo than his FB.

Not yet, but as of now, he's not on our roster.

I think a large percentage of Sox fans are already aware of the sham taking place for 3-5 years, now. They might be blinded by one signing, like Burnes or Fried, and precious little else, but I'm not sure how many would fall for just that. It worked a little with the Story, then Yoshida, then Devers deals, but the scam is exposed, IMO.

In conjunction with others, maybe, but not as the best SP'er we sign.

Agreed, and they may want to keep him stretched out as a starter w Woo. Right now, he might be our 7th or 8th best pen guy, though.

It seems to be the way the market is heading. He should get what the market sets. While bringing him back reeks of standing pat, there is no comp pick attached to signing him, like there is for others, although we would lose the comp pick we would have gotten had someone else signed him, so I guess that evens out. The Pivetta of 2023-2024 looked a lot better than the 2020-2022 one, and way better than the guy with Philly, but he did lose the starting role, in the middle of this 2 year stretch. Pivetta 2021-2022: 4.54 (97 ERA+/4.35 FIP) 2023-2024: 4.09 (108 ERA+/4.02 FIP) OPS Against 2021>2024: 734> 753> .685> .716 Since 2023, only 52 MLB pitchers had more IP (288) than Pivetta, and out of 79 pitchers with 250+ IP, he placed: 4th in SIERA at 3.32 18th in xFIP at 3.52 38th in ERA- at 93 If we get the sample size to 150 pitchers by dropping the IP to 160 IP, he placed: 5th in SIERA, 21st in xFIP and 64th ERA- (77th in ERA is about 50-50) He is likely better than Bello, Crawford and Gio, but we need to upgrade our #1 SP'er and NOT our #3-4-5's. I'd be happy with Fried and Pivetta and push someone to the pen, which really needs help. Something like just Pivetta and Hoffman would fall way short of our needs.

For the 3+ decades I followed the Sox before JH, I always felt like ownership did "just enough" to keep the fans involved and thinking we had a chance, and we did a few years, but we never took that one or two extra steps to make it more of a surety. I don't think we were ever preseason favorites until the JH era. It seemed like we were, many times, an ace away from being a top two or three contender. I seemed we lucked into Tiant, who brought us oh-so-close. The farm brought us to 1986, not any key signing. It wasn't until Dan D brought us Manny & Pedro, and then JH made that extra move of getting us Schilling that sealed the deal. He also got us key pieces like Foulke & Mueller, and later Beckett, Lowell and others, who all made us top 3-4 contenders for many years, even some we bombed out. Under the DD era we saw what could be viewed as overkill building the 2018 roster, and we had damn good rosters in 2016 and 2017, too. (Even 2019 was very nice, on paper.) Then, poof. Jh had cut back, several times, in the past, but not to this extent and for this long a period. Some of his major signings, like extensions to Sale, Nate and Devers, plus FA signings like Story and Yoshida fell short of replacing who we lost due to aging or money choices. Now, we have a pretty nice core of young players, of which only Houck, Duran and Crawford have just started their arb years. We have a great set of prospects that are near ML ready and another set behind them that should be top 100 in a year or two and ML ready in 2-4 years. We are clearly at a place where 2-3 major additions can get us near the top 4-7 contender area and maybe 3-5 key additions away from being a top 2-4 contender. I guess some disagree, but that is my opinion, and I feel we should get even stronger as our young players mature and our prospects make an impact. The time is now. Don't blow the window or shorten it by "waiting until next year!"

If I had to guess: 45% Mets 33% Sox 10% TOR 6% NYY and 6% LAD

He may keep a straight face, but I think everyone will see right through it. Getting fans hopes up on Soto, then scaling back to the same ole-same ole, one more year, could really be the final straw for many fans. There may be some dumb Sox fans, but the vast majority already thinks it's been a sham for years, and they will know if it continues, or not. If we lose out on Soto, we absolutely have to sign Burnes or Fried, at the bare minimum for winter additions. For me, even that is not close to what I'd consider "making an effort to compete." We'd need something like Fried, Hoffman, Teoscar/Bregman/Adames plus a trade to convince me they are "all in." That may not even be enough, but at least an effort would be evident.

We could very well keep up the sham, this winter. I'm hoping we don't, and I do think we will sign at least 2 longer term contracts, this winter, but one year deals seems to be a big trend with our team, since DD left the house.

I get your point, but such is the way of media, today.

They better not be relying on Chapman, Hendriks and Fulmer to take up the slack from the Jansen/Martin departures. Our pen was somewhere between being near average and sucking, last year. So far, we haven't even stayed even. We can't count on things like, "we'll get a full year of Slaten," since someone else may get hurt. I do think Whitlock in the pen may help, a lot, but his health is always a concern. Adding 2 top SP'ers would take some slack and workload off the pen, while also pushing Crawford or Bello into the long role. That could help, but to me, we still need to add Scott, Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes- maybe trade for Helsley.

Conference playoffs to go... The updated rankings came out, and it looks like Alabama will sneak in. The final seeding will be the top 4 filled by the highest ranked of the 5 major conferences, which is really messed up. Two winners from: 15 AZ St v 16 IA St 20 UNLV v 10 Boise St. 8 SMU v 17 Clemson (#12 MIA will be booted out) The current rankings: 1. ORE, 2. Texas, 3. Penn St. 4. ND, 5. GA, 6. Ohio St., 7 TN, 8 SMU, 9 IN, 10, Boise St, 11 Alabama, 12 MIA 13 Ole Miss, 14 So Carolina The final bracket will likely look like this: BYE 1-4: 1. Oregon- Penn St winner 2. Texas- Georgia winner 3. SMU or Boise St (if winners) 4. Boise St /SMU or AZ St/IA St winner 5. Oregan - Penn St. Loser 6. Texas (if loses to GA) or Notre Dame 7. Notre Dame (Georgia if TX wins) 8. Ohio St. 9. Tennessee 10. Indiana 11. Alabama 12. Worst winner from SMU-Clemson/ Boise St- UNLV/ AZ St-IA St (So Carolina, Ole Miss and Miami are out.) 1st round might be: AZ St @ Penn St Alabama @ Texas Indiana @ Notre Dame Tenn @ Ohio St.

I'd like him added. Word is, some teams are looking at him as a SP'er. After Scott and Hoffman, I have him about even with Estevez.