moonslav59

The first College Football Playoff Rankings come out Nov 5th. ND is off, this week and should be ranked from around 10th to 13th. 4 Ohio St plays at 3 Penn St, but the loser will likely still be top 12. 19 PITT is undefeated and plays at 22 SMU, if they win they could move to near 12th. 13 & undefeated Indiana plays at Mich St 11 & undefeated BYU is off in week 10. My guess is the crowd from about #9 to #15 will be very bunched together.

I don't see us adding any everyday player, except a catcher, most likely on a 1 year deal- perhaps w a 2nd yr option. I know the kids are "unproven." I know they don't even need to be added to the 40 to stay protected, and the whole years of service equation plays into those choices, but these guys are ML ready, and I think at least one will make the 26 man roster on opening day or day 2. The others may wait until they "gain the extra year." Even without any added prospects, here are the players vying for the 13 everyday slots: Wong + _____ (Gasper) Casas DHam, Grissom, E Valdez Story, Romy Devers (Sogard) Duran, Refsnyder Rafaela Abreu Yoshida It's easy to place E Valdez in AAA on opening day, and we have our 13. The weak spots look like ... C, 1B, 3B defense Back up catcher and OF, but Ref is serviceable in LF, while Duran can play CF, well. Romy can be replaced, but some see hope in his skills profile. A DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B could be pretty good, but is an area that could be improved and turned into less of a question mark. 2B has been one of the worst positions in all of MLB, almost every year since 2018. Rafaela's offense is highly questionable. All of these weak areas can seemingly be solved by prospect infusions. Teel may not solve the catcher defense problem in 2025, so a temporary outside addition is needed there. 1B and 3B defense could be improved, if we make the ballsy choice of moving Devers to 1B and using Campbell, Mayer or Grissom at 3B. The defense issue is the most complex of all, because it involves major changes to positions, or replacing plus bats for lesser bats and better D. The OF depth is instantly solved by adding Anthony, or even Campbell or both. Romy can be replaced by Campbell or Mayer. Rafaela's offense can be put on the bench as a 4th OF'er/Defensive OF by starting Anthony in RF (Duran CF and Abreu LF vs RHPs and Duran LF and Rafaela CF vs LHPs) or CF (with Abreu in RF.) The questionable platoon at 2B, between DHam and Grissom could be replaced by a FT Campbell or Mayer at 2B. BTW, here are the career splits of the suggested 2B platoon: .727 Grissom v LHPs and .695 DHam v RHPs (.729 in '24.) DHam also played very good defense at 2B in '24. Grissom's sample size was small but bad. I do not see us having the worst fWAR at 2B in 2025. It should not even be bottom 10, IMO, no matter which way we go. I'm really encouraged by the possibilities we have for these 13. We have a lot of depth and flexibility, and I didn't even bring up Meidroth. It's the pitching that is riddled with some major questions and several minor ones. We do have some decent depth, but as I mentioned before, most can be be better viewed as excellent minor league depth rather than the 10th to 13th best pitchers on the ML roster. Guys like Fitts, Priester, Criswell and Dobbins would be very nice AAA starters and deep depth for the rotation. (Criswell and Fitts could be long men from the pen, as well, but there may be room for just one to fill that role.) Our pen has a lot of promise, but there is an issue with having so many mediocre RP'ers with promise or lack of recent success due to injury or whatever. IMO, our current RP'ers should be slotted like this, with 3 significant outside additions: Closer: __add__ Set-Up1: Hendriks Set-Up3: __add__ RP4: Whitlock (coudl be excellent as a #4 or end up as our #2) RP5: Slaten (could be one of MLB's best #5 or move up to #2 or #3.) LH'd RP6: __add__ RP7: Criswell or Fitts (the other starts in AAA) RP8: Fulmer AAA Pen (maybe one of the best in AAA) Guerrero, Penrod, Wink, Weissert, Bernardino, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser/Shugart/Horn/Murphy/Mata (out of options) Others: Wikelman, Gambrell, I Coffey, Drohan, Mills, Kwiatkowski, Sandlin, Early, Monegro, Mullins, Hoppe, Troye In short, we need a one-year catcher who is good on D and 3 solid RP'er. I'll settle for 2 really good RP'ers, with one being a lefty, if possible. (I'd like a SP'er, too, but I think Brez & Co. thinks we have the horses, with a returning Gio and Fitts, Criswell and Priester as depth.)

1. Trading Yoshida is a long shot. If AZ wants to dump Monty, they can get someone better for him. 2. Fried might be too high-priced. (I thought you felt JH would only go "moderate.") 3. I'd love to see us trade for a quality SP'er, but I think it's a long shot. 4 and 5 should be locks. My wish list is too unrealistic. My guess is we do this: 1. Trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for a good RP'er and Catcher. 2. We sign Nick Martinez of Jack Flaherty, 3. We sign 2 RP'ers, but it won't be Tanner Scott and probably not Estevez, either. 4. We start the season with just 1 top prospect on the 40., maybe 2. Since I say we trade Abreu, I'm guessing Anthony is on the opening day 26, and Campbell gets added as soon a ssomeone goes on the 60 day IL. Mayer will only be added, if Story goes on the IL, or his service time clock clicks, and we need a better middle infielder than we have going, mid season. Teel may not be added until 2026. Meidroth- the same. We may try to prolong the Fitts service time clock, too.

I can't believe i left Montgomery off the list! I think our farm is deeper than many think it is, and it goes beyond the 5 or 6 that are ML ready, now. I also think the pitching will prove to be better than many think it is. Most, including me, never expected to see so many homegrown arms doing well in 2024: Houck, Crawford, Slaten, Bello, Fitts, Wink, Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero, Penrod, Priester... We have a solid core of young players and top prospects.

Big FA signings aren't the only way to have a higher budget. I also feel like JH wants to avoid ever signing anyone like Price again, although he did just fork over more money for Devers than Price got. I'm still not sure he never will, again. You make a very good point, but here is the issue and flaw I see in this presented plan scenario: while our rosters in the last few years had enough holes in it to spend on several FAs moderately, rather than spending on 1-2 at much higher prices, I don't see a 26 man roster with 5-6 holes in it. The might not even be 4 holes. The only thing not totally squeezing the 26 and 40 man roster, right now, is that out most promising ML ready prospects are all not even Rule 5, yet, and they do not need to be added to either roster until opening day or day 2, at the earliest. I see 3 major holes, and we don't need to spend like Price on any of them, but we can spend more than Kluber or Richards money. JH did spend $16M x 2 on Jansen, so I could see him allowing Brez to sign Tanner Scott. JH did allow a $38M deal for Gio, the biggest since Nate in 2019, so I do think he may allow Brez to go for someone like Flaherty or Nick Martinez at somewhat high money, but not break the bank levels. The third guy could be another RP'er (LH'd?) or a catcher on a short term deal. (or both for 4 signings.) Is this what you mean by "moderate?" If yes, I agree that this could be something JH could go along with. Is this a playoff roster? The 26: Houck, Nick Martinez, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Fitts (long man) Scott, Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Chaffin, Guerrero, Criswell Wong, Grandal Casas DHam-Grissom platoon (Campbell added during season) Story Devers Abreu/Duran Duran/Rafaela Anthony (added before opening day or after) Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon The rest of the 40 Gasper, Romy, E Valdez, Sogard Priester, Dobbins (R5) Wink, Weissert, Kelly, Bernardino, I Campbell, Penrod, Fulmer (R5), Booser or Jh garcia (R5) Gone: Mata, Murphy, Shugart We can add Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth or Teel, after opening day, perhaps when someone goes on the 60 day IL. This might be the best we can hope for, and I do not think this puts us over the tax line.

If $300M/10 was as high as JH would go, it seems they were pretty far apart. I do not think Betts ever countered with $360M/12, so who knows. It was stupid to let him go. It seems like $60M + 2 more years is not that much. Yes, this was on JH, and he will forever be to blame. I do wonder how we would have deconstructed the roster had we kept Betts at that amount, while coming close to the same budgets we saw in 2020 and 2021. He'd have had to have dumped full-Price and probably JD. Maybe they don't extend Sale and or Nate, instead. I guess we have to take Betts at his word, or do we?

Lots of teams bunched up around #12 with a lot of the season left to go. Here is my top 20 rankings: 1. ORE 8-0 2. Penn St 7-0 3. Georgia 6-1 4. Texas 7-1 5. Ohio St 6-1 6. Miami 8-0 7. Tennessee 6-1 8. Iowa St. 7-0 9. Clemson 6-1 10. Notre Dame 7-1 11. BYU 8-0 12. Indiana 8-0 13. Pittsburgh 7-0 14. Texas A & M 7-1 15. Alabama 6-2 16. LSU 6-2 17. Boise St 7-1 18. Ole Miss 6-2 19. KA St 7-1 20. Army 7-0 & SMU 7-1 Some big games coming up... Next week: Ohio St at Penn St, Oregon at Michigan and PIT at SMU Wk 11: GA at Ole Miss, MIA ay GA Tech, AL at LSU, MI at IN Wk 12: TN at GA, Clem at PIT Wk 13: Vandy at LSU, IN at Ohio St, Army at ND Wk 14: Tenn at Vandy, TX at TX A & M, KA St at IA St, ND at USC, MI at Ohio St Wk 15: Navy at Army

Some near-misses, today... #4 Ohio St held off NEB 21-17 #5 Texas beat #25 Vandy 27-24 #3 Penn St is up 14-13 at WI in the 4th Q #8 LSU lost vs #14 Texas A&M (Maybe A &M belongs in the 12.) Undefeated IN beat Wash 31-17. Undefeated BYU beat UCF 37-24. Both might be top 12, this week. Who drops out? #12 ND won big vs a top 25 team (Navy) 51-14. #16 K St barely won vs a bad Kansas.

Apparently, Mookie says he'd have stayed with BOS for the same as what LAD paid him ($365M/12.) https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-absolutely-i-just-didn-t-get-it-when-mookie-betts-revealed-he-d-stayed-red-sox-365-million

My suggestion was for pitching, and pretty damn good ones. I agree that Yoshida will be our DH, this year- maybe a platoon with Ref.

He said not the "primary factor" not "no factor." I do not think the budget would have allowed for Gio and Sale, unless we did not sign O'Neill and traded someone else- like Martin or Jansen. (Some reports were out that we were shopping Jansen.) Maybe we should have tried real hard to dump Yoshida, last winter. (Maybe Story?) As it turned out, I know-I know, another scenario, we could have not trade for O'Neill, traded Martin and kept Sale and also signed Gio. That's pretty close to what we "saved" by trading Sale.

Fragile little birdies.

Maybe so, but you said No, not TOR. TOR is going nowhere and fast. They may look to dump a high-price pitcher to cut salary. They may lose Vladdy and want Casas. I can understand TOR saying no, but why you?

Can't you find someone who is not a DH?

I'm looking for a way to get a good pitcher at below market price. I also think the line-up without Casas could be about as good as with him, but this is no knock on Casas. It is my optimism on Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth and others that thinks they can come close.

We've been suggesting trades and signings based on tight budgets for several years. The Story and Yoshida signings were kind of surprising, and neither were mega deals. I'm going on the assumption that we don't spend more than '24 and may cut some. I also think we might spend a little more and get close to the tax line, but I am far from expecting it.

I'm not optimistic on spending, at all. I'm just unsure. I'm optimistic about our young foundation and ML ready, top prospects. We may or may not need big spending to win, again, but it would likely help. We will almost certainly need some moderate spending to win.

I dont know why anyone would think that hire was a "plus." Maybe, if you heard them explain why, there might be something that makes some sense. I do not think all their moves suck. We do seem to focus on the ones that do, and it's understandable, after 6 years of grief. It's too early to tell, but I like the Brez hire and have optimism towards our future. More optimism than I felt in 2018 (towards the future & extended future.) Somebody made some good chocies to get us here.

On the surface, the Lawson addition does seem suspect, but it was one hire out of many. I can also understand the cynicism. 6 years of futility can do that to anyone.

As for free agents, Soto is the prize, but i give us less than 1% chance of signing him. We have a bunch of OF'ers and the Yanks, Dodgers and others will offer a ton and a half for him. Here is who I'd like to see us go after: A: Burnes, Fried, Tanner Scott B: Flaherty, N Martinez, Peralta, Carlos Estevez & C Holmes (RP) Nate, Higashioka, Adames (if we trade Mayer) C: Montgomery, Wacha, Manaea & Kikuchi (C+) Snell (Just not that high on him), Bieber (tired of injury-prone pitchers) Roki Sasaki, Severino, Danny Jansen or d'Arnaud (on 1 year deals), H-S Kim (trade Mayer) M Kelly, Pivetta, Gibson, Verlander, Morton, Heaney D: Carson Kelly, Scherzer, Bregman (too up and down and more down, recently) F (good but not a fit) Santander & Teoscar H, Alonso & Walker (unless we trade Casas), Bellinger & O'Neill, G Torres

I would not hand Casas away, and I get the idea that we could be "selling low" on him, if we trade him, this winter. The package included with Casas would have to be better and or more players involved. I'm wondering what Casas, Abreu, DHam plus Dobbins could get back. Here is the possible team we could have without Casas and Abreu: C: Wong, __add__ (Teel) 1B: Devers, Romy/Wong (Meidroth?) 2B: Campbell or Mayer or a Grissom/DHam platoon SS: Story (Mayer) 3B: Mayer or Campbell or Grissom (Meidroth) LF: Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran RF Anthony DH: Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon I'm not sure this is much of a step down from one with Casas, if the kids come through.

Yup.

And who refuses to replace Boone?

ND is looking good at Navy, so far (38-14 in 3rd Q.) Undefeated #19 PITT won, last night vs Syracuse. #17 Boise St beat UNLV by 5, #4 Ohio St is struggling vs NEB (up 14-9 in 3rd Q)

To me, it's not about being "low" on Casas: it's about trying to determine who we can or should trade to get a good pitcher. We have to give something to get something good in return. Casas may be the lowest value as a centerpiece of a big trade out of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel and Duran, so I can see why waiting on him makes sense, but here are some reasons to choose him over others: 1. Story is such a health risk that keeping Mayer over Casas makes sense. 2. Anthony has the highest ceiling of anyone, except maybe Duran. 3. Good ctahcers are so hard to find, that keeping Teel makes sense. 4. Campbell is the only RHB out of all on this list. 5. Duran has already proven he is a top notch 5 tool player. 6. Trading Casas allows Devers to move to 1B and improve the defense at 3B and maybe/likely 1B, too. Nobody wants to trade Casas, but we want a really good pitcher more than anything else. Yes, it's easy to just say, "JH can afford to spend on pitching," but until I see it, I'm thinking what is the best trade we can make to get one. What player can we part with that has the least negative effect on the roster. Part of what goes into determining this is who do we already have in the system that can replace who we give up. Trading a prospect seems easiest, since they do not currently have a role on the big club that would need replacing, and the big 3 have higher trade value than Casas, but their upside potential and positional value is more important than a poor fielding 1Bman, IMO. To me, Devers should be at 1B (75%) and DH 20% and 3B 5%, while Casas DH's 75% and plays 1B 25%. That makes the other chocies, who actually play important positions and well, between choices to keep, IMO.