moonslav59

The thing is, we have about 13-15 everyday players and just need a solid 9. Yes, there are questions and hopes involved, but I do not think it's unfounded hopes and expectations. More often than not a number one prospect does okay in year one, and Campbell hit better than Anthony in '24. The chances one from Anthony, Campbell and Mayer do well should be much better than 50-50. Counting on Story may be foolish, but we really just need his glove, not really his bat. Wong may not be young, anymore, but catchers often mature after 28, or even 30. Casas missed a lot of games, but seems to have proven he can hit. Abreu and Rafaela may end up on some sort of platoon rotation- maximizing both of their values. Devers may get hurt, again, but maybe not. Duran seems to keep getting better and better, but maybe he regresses. I'm not sure should count on regression from anyone but maybe Ref and Yoshida, due to their ages. IMO, it will be about the pitching. I do not see Hendriks, Fulmer, and Gio-Fitts-Priester as equal to Jansen, Martin & Pivetta. They all may help, but we need outside help with our staff- at least two quality pitchers..

Call me a rose-colored glasses wearing homer or worse, but it's hard for me not to get optimistic about our future Sox teams. The recent graduate list as as good as it's been in many years: '21 Houck & Whitlock '22 Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong '23 Casas & Kelly '24 Slaten, Abreu, Rafaela & DHam '25 ML Ready: Anthony, Campbell, Fitts, Mayer, Teel, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins, Meidroth No doubt we still have major gaps and an owner with unknown intentions with the budget, but we have a solid base of young players that is only growing and improving. Add to this, the fact that Devers is younger than Duran and only Houck, Duran and Crawford are arb eligible, this winter- all just year one. Things are brighter: it's not just a perception. Yes, we lose Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin, but we already can see we are adding many prospects, plus Hendriks, Gio, Fulmer as well as possible full seasons from many partial season 2024 players. It should not take major additions to turn us into a playoff team. It will take a couple or 3 to make us strong contenders, but that's closer than we have been in many years. We don't need to spread the winter budget across 5-7 players: 3 key players can be enough.

You certainly have more expertise than I do on this sort of thing (and others, too.) I'm not sure Jh Garcia will be selected or do well, if selected. If you are so sure, he won't, then maybe we shouldn't protect him, but teams do take chances on AA players, and IMO, I like Garcia's chances not just better but way better than the list of players I see as being #38, #39 and #40 on our roster, after we add a few players, like Dobbins, Fulmer and some FAs or trade additions. To me, this is what I look at. Of course, if Sox management thinks there is a zero chance he gets selected, then fine. Maybe even 1%: fine. IMO, it's more about my dislike for guys like Wikelman, Murphy, Horn, Shugart and others and my belief that we don't have s et lock on a number of 40 man guys that need to be pitchers. I also think Sogard and Gasper and maybe even EValdez are easily replace by waiver wire guys, if needed, midseason. Those are everyday guys. We do need to add a catcher, so there goes one slot. I get that. Maybe I'm too gah gah on Jh Garcia. I got that way on prospects that never amount to much, in the past. Maybe, this is another one of those times. At least you guys see him as a "maybe." Another point is that even if we want to start the year with non Rule 5 guys on the 26 and 40- like Anthony, Campbell or someone else, we can wait until opening day, by placing someone on the 60 Day IL to add them. They need not start the season on the 40, day one. That could keep a slot open for Garcia.

This would be astounding. I assume Campbell would be our 4th OF'er, not Ref, and he could play 2B, when not in the OF. I think we need something very bold, this winter, but I won't let myself expect one. I'm too tired of letdowns. The Story signing was a brief reprieve, and ultimately a letdown. The Yoshida signing was a pipedream. The Devers extension was treading water at an expensive price.

Come on, what? I mentioned the big tank before and that the increase did not come close to replacing those we lost before. The fact remains, the spending has not been on one steady downward trend, and the Devers & Story signings are two of the largest given our by JH. It still sucks. I'm pissed, too, but there is no evidence that cuts will continue onwards and onward. Recent evidence shows otherwise. Why does the truth hurt so much? Again, I'm not sugar coating anything. I'm pissed at the whole sham, but I keep hearing posters say JH will not sign anyone to a huge contract, when the largest deal in Sox history just began, this year. The Story signing was 2 years ago. Why do we have to ignore those signings to make our points? There is plenty of truthful things to say to make a JH-damning point. My whole point about bringing this up is to ask what evidence shows JH will keep cutting and cutting the budget, and again, I'm not denying it might happen, but what is the basis for this belief? JH has shown that he cuts, when he thinks the chances are low for a ring and splurges or spends more when he thinks we are approaching a window. He has cut right after a ring year and spent more after one, too. There is no way to predict. If anything, his trend is to keep going up and down. True, no cut was as massive as the one before 2020, and that set us so far back, that any increase is largely a mirage. I've even made the point that the rise in the budget from 2018 to 2019 was a mirage, as it only reflected rising costs of the same players we kept, while letting Kimbrel and Kelly go with no suitable replacements. I maintain the "cutting" really began in 2019, and that's what caused the rift between JH and DD. The downturn has been about 6 years long, with some superficial jumps in spending to try and placate fans and season ticket holders. I've called it a sham. "Come on," what? Nothing is as black and white as some want to think it is.

While it's true, not many AA players are selected Rule 5, Drohan did start off in AA in 2023. Thad Ward was drafted first in 2022. He started out in A-, went to A+ and spend teh rest of '22 in AA. He never played for Woo. I don't think it is worth the risk of losing Jh Garcia over some of the names I mentioned.

Exactly. None of us know. I, for one, am not counting on it. I'll believe it, if and when I see it. I will say JH has a long history of splurging, then going tight, rinse and repeat. His increase from 2020 to 2022 was one of his biggest in his 2 decades, in Boston. Yes, we can look at the time from 2018 to today as one long and deep cut, but it has not been steady. The Story and Yoshida signings may not match Price's deal, but Story's matches the Sale extension, pretty closely, and Yoshida comes close to the Bogey 3 year opt-out deal. The Devers extensions blows all other signings out of the water. I'm not sugar coating anything. I'm pissed, too. The Story and Yoshida signings did not nearly make up for the guys we lost. This has been one long cluster, but there is no evidence to say JH will not spend again. Hell, the Devers extension kicked in just this year, yet people act like he hasn't gone large and long since Price, Sale, Nate, Bogey and JD. I have no idea what he will do. I hope he spends big, soon, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll be surprised, if he does, this winter. I'll be mildly surprised if he does for 2026 or 2027. I won't be surprised, if he cuts, this year.

Change the subject- fine. I'm not down on Bogey. I wish we had kept him. I asked a question, "Would Sox Nation be happy with the last 2 years of Bogey had we signed him for $180M/6 or $220M/8?" I guess, I'll put you down as a firm YES. BTW, my views on Bogey have barely changed. I always wanted him on our team. I thought his defense was pretty bad, his offense was great and he was a clear net plus. At his age, I worried about decline and felt a change of position was needed. (I felt that when we signed Story, too.) I'll always have very fond memories of his offense.

In all fairness, when you look at the 40 man roster for 2020, that ended up missing Sale and ERod for the full season, you can see why building the 40 man roster depth (bottom up) over signing big ticket items, only to have no supporting cast. My issue has been that once we got the 40 man roster depth to an acceptable level (maybe by 2021 or 2022,) we went from building the bottom to building the middle with one and done players, sprinkled with a few 2 years guys like Kike, Sawamura, Diekman, and wait for it,,, the big splash Gio. (Actually Jansen & martin were good signings, but that came in 2023. Take a look at some of the names on the 2020 opening day roster, and tell me building the bottom should not have been the priority: Lucroy, Plawecki, Chavis, Arauz, Lin Weber, Hall, Covey, Brice, Osich, Brewer, P Valdez, Hembree, Walden & Brasier That's 15 from the 40. The mediocre guys were: Moreland, Pillar, Martin Perez, Springs, Workman and some thought Barnes, too. Basically the whole pen and all the rotation, except Nate were scubs or mediocre. By 2021, Perez went from our 2nd SP'er to our #5, although Richards pitched worse. Pivetta and Houck also were added. We added Ottavino, Whitlock and Schreiber to the pen. We went from 1 decent pitcher to 6 or 7, not counting Sale & ERod, who started 2021 on the IL. We did have Cordero and Dalbec in the starting 9, but had Arroto on the bench, who beat Arauz with a club. I count 6 scrubs and maybe 4-5 mediocres on this opening day 40- a big jump from 2020, and the results showed. Then, I think JH got too full of himself, and believed his own sham- thinking we can win without spending, and we've stayed pretty even since 2022. Even at mediocrity. I will say the 2022 season started out with a decent looking rotation, on paper: Nate, Houck, Pivetta, Wacha and Hill. The pen had Whitlock, Strahm and Barnes, but precious little more. The JBJ trade back-fired and Kike nosedived.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, on my part, and I'll say again that I do NOT expect big spending from JH, but it is possible that the kids start to shine brightly, and we look a piece or two away from a ring, and JH decides to splurge, once again. I doubt it is this winter, but just spending the same as last year is a pretty big chunk of AAV.

Key words, "all that much." Pablito did have post season success in 2012 and 2014, but he also had a .794 OPS with SFG, during the regular season, His 123 OPS+ was six better than Bogey's 117 w the Sox. All the warning signs were there, however: 130 OPS+ first 1869 PAs w SFG 116 OPS+ last 1664 w SFG (still near Bogey's career OPS+ w BOS)

I'm not sure player's stock goes up all that much over some post season success. He does fit the Sox profile for being a pitcher who has had great success but has missed so much time with injuries.

I don't doubt the budget goes down, again, but you seem so sure it will. At least you won't be let down. (I'm not expecting an increase, but I do think it may stay near the same, which would actually give Brez a pretty hefty winter spending budget.

Happy Halloween! Booooo Yankees!

CWS pay Moncada $5M option rather than $25M option. Twins decline Margot's $12M option and pay $2M buyout. ATL traded for another pitcher: Jorge Soler (owed $26M/2) for Griffin Canning (1 arb year left.) Gibson and Lynn's options declined.

I'm so sick of waiting for pitchers who had some kind of glory in the past to get healthy. Then the one we get rid of, wins the Cy Young.

I loved the Dugo trade, and I'm hopeful Fitts fills a role we need: an innings eating decent SP'er.

I do not think we have a set-in-stone number of pitching slots on the 40. I also think having guys on the 40 that won't sniff the bigs in 2025, like Wikelman might be as expendable or more than Jh Garica. Also, I'd take Jh Garcia over Gasper, Sogard and maybe even E Valdez, who we could probably trade for a single A prospect.

A Soto trade would remind me of the Manny signing. It would be about as bold as we can be. I'd consider it as more of a blockbuster move than the Price signing and the Sale trade. I think it would go a long way at repairing the hurt feelings from losing Betts, but nothing more than a ring would really help heal that open wound.

The left-handed tilt of the Sox 13 everyday players might be greatly changed by adding Campbell and a good splits in the minors, Anthony, plus the return of Story. Here are the worst splits vs LHPs in 2024 with 50+ PAs: .532 DHam (another guy, I've mentioned as trade bait, since we can add Campbell and or Grissom to the 26.) .532 Abreu (Ref platoon in '25?) .565 Yoshida (Ref platoon in '25?) .669 career begs for a platoon as a DH. .603 Rafaela (revers splits doesn't help) .665 Duran (gotta hope he improves.) .686 Devers (.739 career- not a concern) .748 Casas (.772 career- not a concern) Grissom is .727 career vs LHPs, so maybe a DHam-Grissom 2B platoon could work well.

Then, you woke up.

117 may have been his career BOS OPS, but as you pointed out on another thread, that includes his first years, as he struggled to adjust at a young age. I do not think those who were most upset at losing Bogey expected a 117 OPS+, year one, and knowing his SS D was not great, to be kind. His OPS+ since the 2017 year you mentioned: 135, 139, 128, 129 and 131 (2018-2022 w BOS.) Even if he bounces back to near 117 at age 32 and beyond, I still think that falls short of what the biggest Bogey fans envisioned. I could easily see him having an OPS+ at or below 117 for the remainder of his time with SD, combined.

I think some scrub team will take Garcia, so I'd protect him. While I like our roster depth, I think, even if we add 3-4 free agents, Jh garcia will still be better than out #39 or 40 on the roster. I know it sucks bruning 40 man roster slots on guys with no hopes of playing in the bigs, next year, but this guy is too good to risk losing, IMO. I'd rather trade or cut Wikelman. My guess is Mata, Gasper and Murphy will already be gone by opening day, but I'd also rather have Jh Garcia over Shugart, Horn, Sogard and maybe Penrod & Booser, too. We should have the roster space for Jh Garcia and Dobbins.

I've always liked Pivetta, but I think we can get better on a $20M AAV. The issue is years. I doubt JH is ready to give $20M x 4+ years, so maybe Pivetta is the best we can get for $20M/1. Hell, Gio got nearly that for 2 years.

I've been mentioning his name for months, as a trade candidate. His splits are awful, and we have Anthony as ML ready. One can argue Rafaela should be the odd man out, and his splits are pretty even, so he is no LHP killer, but I think Abreu brings back a better pitcher, and Rafaela's CF defense may be second to none. The fact that Duran plays excellent CF defense, and Anthony might, too, may make the point moot. I'd be happy with... LF: Abreu- Ref platoon CF: Duran RF: Anthony