moonslav59

I totally agree, and while I'd like to lock some of these guys up for longer terms, I can understand the hesitancy to do so, when pitchers get hurt so often. Our highest contracts to pitchers have been: $210M/7 Price $145M/5 Sale (extension) $82.5M/5 Lackey (figure in inflation) $68M/4 Nate $52M/6 Dice-K (plus $52M posting fee- figure in inflation) Brez & Co. have made strong efforts to improve the quality and quantity of drafting and IFA pitching additions. They have tried to improve development systems. They have also acquired many pitching prospects via trade and Rule 5, while also adding several vets with skills or past success.

True. Maybe 20-22 guys know they have a slot, every year. It may affect a starting role vs a bench role, but not much.

While I often agree that ST'ing does not matter much, tell that to Newcomb.

Good points. The reason I said "starting OF" was Yaz in '75 was not really the "starting" LF'er. The back-ups were excellent defenders, too. I did think of the 2018 OF, and I could see calling them as good or even better, but I like this one more. Duran> Beni Rafaela can be better than JBJ, but it is not proven, yet. Betts> Abreu

I'm happy for him. Have we announced who goes on the 60 Day IL to make room for he and K Campbell?

Yanks place Gil on the 60 and sign Ryan Yarbrough.

The only everyday players who loses team control before 3 years are Bregman (opt outs after 2025 & 2026) and Refsnyder (after 2025.) While Ref is a valuable batter vs LHPs, his defense is not good. We have Anthony in the wings, which should be an upgrade. (JH Garcia may be in the picture by 2026.) Losing Bregman will hurt, and we should not think about moving Devers back to 3B. Bt the time Bregman leaves, we may very well have an in-house solution as we decide who best can play SS, 2B and 3B among Story, Campbell, Mayer and subs like DHam, Romy & Grissom. (Arias and Romero may be knocking on the door by 2026 and 2027.) Yoshida has 3 years, too, but he lacks a clear roster slot, going forward, especially if Devers stays at DH.

He got hurt, yesterday. I hope he stays off the IL.

Agreed. I think he's good enough to get the call, but others on the roster might get a chance before he does.

I'm wondering if Narvaez ends up with more starts than Wong in 2025.

I'm assuming Campbell takes a 40 man roster slot from a pitcher (Perales, Murphy or Penrod) who will be placed on the 60 Day IL. Maybe, we wait to add anyone else for the other 2. Here is the soxprospects.com's projected 26 man opening day roster. Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Fitts, Newcomb Chapman, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Wilson, Bernardino, Kelly Wong, Casas, Campbell, Bregman, Story, Duran, Rafaela, Abrey, Devers Narvaez, DHam, Romy, Refsnyder IL: Crawford, Giolito, Bello, Yoshida, Perales (to 60?) Murphy (to 60?) Penrod (to 60?) 40 Man on the farm: Priester, Winckowski, Dobbins, Weissert, Guerrero, Grissom, Sogard, Jh Garcia Players that may be added, soon: Mayer, Anthony, Fulmer, Thompson, Eaton, Toro, Moore, Adams

With Rafaela no longer needed at SS and 2B, the OF defense should be better, too- assuming Rafaela plays FT. If Anthony gets the call, he's not bad. He's better than Refsnyder, worse than Rafaela and maybe not as good as Abreu.

Word is he will, but we heard the same about Paxton & Hendriks.

I know I've been harping on the team control thing, but I have a question: If Campbell is sent down to AAA for a couple months, this season, does he still gain another year of control? I'm not advocating that happens, just wondering...

3 of last year's starters on the IL, plus Sandoval. Considering that, this rotation is pretty decent.

I am, but I like our AAA depth, including SP'er we can use from the pen, and when the SP'ers return, we can add Fitts, Newcomb or Priester to the pen, at that time. I like our O. I like our D, much better than '24. I like our base running. I love our rotation. The pen may be average, so let's see how it plays out.

Trading Teel twice might be nixed by MLB.

It's based on his downright nasty stuff and not much more.

He may play some LF, especially if Abreu is taking some time off, but he should play almost all 2B. I'm glad for him. What a meteoric rise to the bigs!

I'm not too worried abut a couple games in ST'ing.

I did not expect regression due to IP. He was old enough and seasoned enough to step up from 106 to 178 innings. He's almost 29 and has been in organized baseball for 10 years. If anything, he's behind pace on IP. I was worries about regression, though, but not from overuse.

Players on the Sox that were on the 2021 team: Devers, Duran (33 gms), Houck, Whitlock AAA in '21: Crawford, Wink, Casas, Wong

Ottavino released by Sox. Some players being cut loose by other teams: Mitch Haniger SEA Brandon Drury CWS Ross Stripling & Luke Maile KCR Dane Dunning TEX

That's $160M/5 or $185M/6 Since the two arb years remaining would likely get him $25-30M/2, the extension would be more like $130M/3 or $154M/4. That comes to about $39-42M a year, for the year beyond our current control. I'm thinking more like $140M/5 or $175M/6. The extension parts would break down to $110M/3 or $145M/4 or about $36-38M a year.

Last season, we finished 81-81, 15th in everyday player fWAR and 11th in Pitching fWAR. We were 26th in Defense. Here are my projections for 2025: Starting Pitchers: (11th in 2024 at 12.0 fWAR) The additions of Crochet and Buehler look very nice. We lost Pivetta but get Giolito back from injury. Houck, Bello and Crawford could give us a nice rotation from top to bottom. The SP'er depth beyond these top 6 looks better than anytime I can remember: Fitts, Priester, Newcomb, Criswell, Dobbins, Fulmer and eventually Sandoval. I project a 14.5 fWAR and 5th place (1st or 2nd in the AL) Relief Pitchers: (14th in 2014 at 3.6) We lost Jansen & Martin, but also some real scrubs. We added Chapman, Wilson and essentially, Hendriks. Whitlock returns to the pen and Slaten looks to build off a nice rookie year. We have a ton of depth in the pen and can use some of our SP'er depth in the pen, as well. Some might say deep in mediocrity, and I can't really argue against that notion, but some of our pen arms have some real promise or have shown recent success. I'm going with a slightly worse pen at 3.5 nad 15th place. Catchers: (22nd in '24 at 1.8)I really like Narvaez, especially his promise on D. I'm about ready to give up on Wong's D, and his decent offense in '24 looked more like a fluke than anything repeatable. I'm projecting we don't get any better, here. Our D may improve, but the O will get worse than the .723 OPS in '24 (8th in MLB.) I project a 1.7 fWAR and 24th place. First Base: (20th at 0.6) Here is where we have a great chance to jump in the rankings. 1B was a total mess, once Casas went down. Dom Smith was able to steady it a bit, but the position was pretty bad. It comes down to Casas staying healthy, which is a reoccuring theme for this team, but I'm hopeful he does. Projection for 2025: 2.5 fWAR and 6th place. Second Base: (30th at -2.3 fWAR) As much as I have talked about how DHam & Romy stabilizing the position for a couple months, the second base position was downright horrific in 2024. It sucked in '23, too, and other than a few brief moments, when Story and Kike played the position, it has been awful for over 5 seasons. That being said, we have some promising choices at 2B for the '25 season. Despite Campbell's struggles in ST'ing, he still offers more hope and promise than anyone sle has in years. The talk of Mayer or Story playing 2B could come into play, at some point, and I'm still clinging to the notion that a DHam-Romy platoon could be a decent idea, especially when mediocrity at 2B would be a huge boost over worst in MLB. I'm projecting a big gaine at 2B, but even a 0.0 fWAR would be a 2.3 gain! I'm going with a 2.0 fWAR at 2B and 15th place- a jump of 15 slots. Short Stop: (15th at 3.2) Somehow, we managed to finish middle of the pack in '24, despite the loss of Story. Rafaela was able to stabilize the position, but is not expected to play SS in 2024. It will come down to two injury prone players: Story and Mayer- both having pretty nice springs. It's a hard position to project, and I'm going with staying about the same, but with big upside: 3.3 fWAR and 15th place, again. Third Base: (14th at 2.5) Bregman helped HOU have the 5th best fWAR at 3B, and a lot had to do with his defense. I expect our D at 3B to greatly improve, while the O gets worse. I project a 4.0 fWAR and 4th place- a significant jump. Outfield: (2nd at 13.0) I'm not sure where everyone will play and even who will play or platoon, so I'm doing the OF as a whole. The defensive alignment of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF might be the best left-to-right starting OF defense in Red Sox history. Having Anthony knocking on the door offers more hope. Refsnyder has been a top 15 batter vs LHPs, which offers help in an area where all 3 OF'ers struggle: batting vs lefties. Yoshida may suck on D, but he could be a plus on offense, while playing short corner OF. With the #1 Yankee OF losing Soto, I'm projecting we finish with the best OF fWAR in MLB at 13.5. (Maybe, Duran 5.5, Abreu 3.0, Rafaela 2.0 and Anthony + Ref at 3.0 combined.) Designated Hitter: (15th at 0.6) Here is another position, where we may see a near 15 place rank improvement, as Devers looks to be the FT DH. With Yoshida and Ref in reserve, it's hard to see a better layout, except Ohtani at DH 4 out of 5 days w LAD. I project 2nd place and a 5.0 fWAR at DH. 31.5 in my everyday total. That would have finished 5th in 2024, so I'm going 5th or 6th in 2025. An 18.0 total pitching fWAR projection would have placed 6th in 2024. I'm projecting 7th in 2025. Our defense should be much better, maybe 14th to 16th best/worst. I'm going with a 90-72 record and a WC slot, but with the injuries to the Yanks, maybe we can win the division. Link to Part I: