moonslav59

The Sox don't need OF help, unless they trade 2-3 of them, so here are the top players by 2025 WAR that play infield or DH: 4.7 Schwarber (DH, maybe 1B) 3.6 E Suarez (1B/3B) NOPE 3.6 Muncy (3B, but has a $19M club option) 3.5 Bregman (3B/2B) 3.4 Alonso (1B/DH) 3.4 Bichette (SS/3B/2B) 2.9 Torres (2B) 2.6 Polanco (DH/2B) 2.4 O'Hearn (1B) Big drop off.... 1.6 Kiner-Falefa (SS/3B/2B) 1.2 Goldschmidt (1B), 1.1 Santana (1B)

Look what we gave up for Crochet, who had never pitched more than 140 IP and had a half of a great season once in his career. Teel was our #4, but only because we had Anthony, Campbell and Mayer. Teel would have been a #1 on many if not most other teams. Montgomery was our #5. Meidroth as #8 and Wikelman was #18. Early is our current #5 on soxprospects.com, but even if you call him our #2 or 3, there are no longer Anthony, Mayer and Campbell on the prospects list. I seriously doubt PIT listens to an offer of Mayer, Early, Campbell or Garcia & Perales. They will want Mayer, Early and Tolle, if Anthony is not the headline. That might not even be enough. Skubal has less control years, but I don't give up a mega package unless an extension is part of the deal.

Probably both. Anthony plus Tolle or Early and maybe even more, like Campbell, Garcia or Arias.

#2 and #4 could be one addition like Suarez. We could also trade for K Marte or sign Polanco to play 2B and have Mayer at 3B and solve the same problems. I'd put #2SP as my second priority but just barely ahead of adding a second power bat (1B, 3B, 2B or DH.) This may be the first winter in history that I have not said a solid SP'er is our #1 priority. 1. Power RHB (3B, 2B, 1B, DH) 2. Solid #2 SP 3. Power LHB or Switch hitter (2B, 1B, DH, 3B) I'd like to bring Matz back to the pen, but I think our pen will be fine. We will likely convert a couple SP'ers in our system to pen arms.

I have mentioned the Devers dump and short term Breggie deal as keeping the spending doubts alive, but we cannot deny the fact that spending habits have changed in the last year or two. We went several years after the Nate & Sale extensions/re-signings seeing very cheap spending trends. The Story and Yoshida signings were not all that large or long, and paled against the backdrop of losing Betts, JD, Price, Porcello and then Bogey with no comparable replacement spending. I'm not projecting more spending. None of us know what JH will do next, but a change has happened, and in my opinion, it began with the Devers extension and a one step up signing of Giolito to 2 years after only 1 year deals for years. There were also extensions given to Rafaela & Bello that we had not really seen in that manner, before. The Crochet deal was the biggest since the Sale trade, and his extension cannot be overlooked. He's making near Price money and for 5 years. Yes, the Devers dump undid much of what looked like a major step up, and the Bregman opt out clause could easily have just been a sham signing to quiet the knowledgeable Sox fans that were getting angry and vocal, but there was more spending than just Bregman and Devers. Buehler's $21M/1 deal was double the $10M/1 trend we had seen, and it was done in light of Gio still being on the books and a second significant signing of Sandoval to $19M/2- another non one year signing. While we stepped down on pen spending by replacing higher costing Jansen and Martin with Chapman & Wilson, we actually got more from them. To me, the extensions to Anthony and Campbell solidifies the position that a clear change has taken place, regardless of the Devers and Bregman losses. Again, JH might revert back to the 2020-2023 philosophy, and I will not be shocked. Upset, yes, but not surprised. As Frank Zappa would say, "I figure the odds be 50-50." on JH's winter budget plans. I'm holding out hope we spend at least up to the tax line, which might be $40-45M, and if we can somehow dump some salary from Yoshida or Hicks, or gain a few millions by trading Duran ($8M,) Campbell ($7.5) and or Rafaela ($6.3M) maybe we can spend over $50M and pay no tax. I would not be shocked if we spend up to the second line, since I have to think JH & Co. must recognize we have a wide open window for 2026 and beyond. A few targeted and successful additions could additions could get us to the top and for more than just 1-2 years. Some of us will be very angry, if they drop the ball.

They won't sign the best 5, so somebody will be left over. PHI will not let Ranger Suarez go, without replacing him, in kind. Other teams will be looking to buy pitching. I still think we trade for a SP'er and spend on a corner infielder (or two.)

Nice presentation. Very thorough. I'll add this guy to my wish list. I do think that if we sign him, we won't trade for another SP'er. We'll add just one pitcher to replace Gio & Buehler. Our SP'er depth will be counted on to fill the 3-5 slots.

The Tolle inclusion would be the roadblock, as would Early. Since the Reds don't need multiple SP'ers, it wouldn't help to instead offer 2 from Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts & Harrison or 1 SP'er and a choice of a RP'er from Sandlin, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero or Moran. I doubt adding DHam helps at all. You guys don't want 3-4 forty man roster players for Greene, and you are looking to win, now, so taking Valera, Clarke or Arias might not be a viable sub for Tolle. We could probably offer K Campbell, instead of Jh Garcia, but I'm not sure you'd view that as a big enough uptick to sub out another arm for Tolle. Duran, Campbell & Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison? (Add Sandlin?)

I like this format better than others. Sorting the Pitchers by WAR gives us an idea of who the better 2025 SP'ers were & some names not mentioned, yet: (age on opening day '26 & 2024 bWAR) 4.7 Ranger Suarez (30, 2.7 and over 2.3 for 5 straight seasons) 3.8 F Valdez (32, 4.4 and over 3.2 for 4 straight seasons) 3.3 A Houser (33, 0.9 and under 2.0 every season) 3.2 Z Littell (30, 2.8 and never above 1.0 before '24) 2.9 M Kelly (37, 1.1 in 13 '24 starts but 3.8 & 4.0 in '22 & '23) 2.3 Robert Suarez (35, 2.0) & Nick Martinez (35, 4.0) 2.1 Giolito (31, n/a), Bassitt (37, -0.1) & T Mahle (31, 0.1 & under 1.9 since '22) 2.0 Tyler Anderson (36, 3.0) 11 SP'ers over 2.0. All will be 30 or older. 6 will be 32 or older. Maybe the Sox will seek out a much older SP'er, in order to keep the deal short and provide some leadership to the young staff. 37 Merrill Kelly & Bassitt 36 Tyler Anderson 35 Robert Suarez or Nick Martinez

Sign: E Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Refsnyder and Matz. Trade Campbell, Tolle, DHam and Sandlin for K Marte. Trade Yoshida (owed $36M/2) +$10M and Casas for Willson Contreras (owed $41M/2) Trade Hicks, Wong & Mullins for Seam Murphy ____________________ 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Story SS 4. R Suarez 1B 5. L Duran DH/ R Refsnyder DH 6. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C 7. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder RF 8. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 9. Rafaela CF

I hope you are wrong. JH spent a lot, last winter, and the window looks more open, now than it did last fall. Of course, if all JH cares about is giving the fans an impression we have a chance and no more, then he may pull back on spending, but I seriously can't imagine him not spending up to but below the tax line and resetting it. That still gives us over $40M (with Story's contract counted.) Sox fans aren't as dumb as he thinks.

Cespedes and Bleis?

Fair enough, but 8.1 is not too far from Lodolo's 9.0. (Lodolo's career is much better.) Greene's is significantly better than both.

Love the Vandy win over LSU, today! They are for real, this year. The #13 Domers play #20 USC at South Bend. It's their last tough game of the season, so a win should mean they are in, assuming they take care of business vs unranked teams.

Not even close, and the game was the clincher one, as well. Man-o-man!

Alcantara seems like a huge gamble, but I'm not sure what the asking price would be. I would not be happy, if he was the only addition to the rotation. I'm not sure why you don't like Abbott. The reason he's not mentioned is that he's their ace. I admit I don't know much about Burns, but Lodolo and Greene would be nice adds, to me. Lopez had arm trouble, but they say he's alright. I hesitate on guys like him, but yes, teh return package would be less than Joe Ryan's. Maybe add Lopez and Alcantara, but how much do we give up for both? I wanna keep Tolle and Early, so that might limit who we can get. Part of me thinks we should sign Merrill Kelly and trade for Marte. Use the rest of the money to sign a power bat, corner infielder.

We could add Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts or Harrison and take away some of the money added for Yoshida.

Of course, but shying away from long term deals has not worked out too well, either. Price was the last added pitcher we've signed for over 2 years. (Nate was extended at 4 years and Bello for more.) Story was the last longer term deal, but it was not really a mega deal. JD's deal, figuring inflation was still not really a mega deal, either. Devers was extended.

Love the Vandy win over LSU, today! They are for real, this year. The #13 Domers play #20 USC at South Bend. It's their last tough game of the season, so a win should mean they are in, assuming they take care of business vs unranked teams. Other big games, today: #5 Ole Miss at #9 GA #11 TN at #6 AL That's a couple more teams ND could pass with a win. (They should pass LSU, if they win.)

We could use Singer, but he's not much of an upgrade over what we have. I'm not sure we should read too much into Ryan's end to 2025, but it is concerning. Remember, Crochet ended the '24 season with a 5.20 ERA over his last 9 starts (but a 2.91 FIP.) Ryan had 4 bad starts in his last 10 AUG>SEP. Pablo Lopez had arm issues, so he's in question, too. Mitch Keller has numbers like Pivetta had before 2025. 4.15 ERA/3.94 FIP and 103 ERA+ since 2022. He's an okay #2 and a solid #3, but he had an AUG-SEP at 5.47/5.41. Who do you suggest?

I'm fine with Brez's miss %. I wont call for his firing, if he misses on another one. My point was that we need to hit on our deals this winter to get us to the next highest level of competitiveness. (The same could be said for 15 teams, I'm sure.)

They may accept some form of a cap, if there is also a substantial floor set in place, as well. There are currently 4 teams under $32M, which is 1/8th of what the Dodger spend AAV. Another 6 teams are between $39M and 48M. If they cap team spending at around $200M, but make the floor around $50M, players would not see a drop in total money spent. The union should focus on getting more of their players into midrange deals than just a few making ungodly sums, while so many make the min to less than $2M/yr. Expanding the ML roster to 27 or 28 and the 40 to 42 or more would bring more players into significant salary increases. Lessing the pre-arb years is another way to get players making more money, sooner. There are many ways to get gains to offset a hard or soft cap set up.

Big letdown for the team that clearly won the regular season.

I agree on all grades. I might move Gio to a B, but the end of the season makes a B- fine.

I agree. The inclusion of Hicks or Yoshida is to offset the salary dumps we are taking back. Arenado is about as bad as Yoshida- worse at bat but can still feild okay. Lopez and Gray are not salary dumps, but they both make way more than Hicks, and including Hicks still saves those teams a lot of money. W Contreras is a slight salary dump and when added to Arenado could be viewed as an offset for Yoshida, and we essentially get Gray for Duran. There is less than a 1% chance any of these deals are made. If MN trades Lopes, they will want all the money saved. I get it. I'm just throwing out long shot ideas to create a world where the Sox no longer have Yoshida or Hicks on the roster without an outright DFA.