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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Here is a look at our positional rankings at about the 17% mark of the season: wRC+ 30th Catcher 42 (61 behind #15) 22nd 1B 62 (42 behind #15) 20th in CF at 76 (12 behind #15) 20th at DH at 87 (15 behind #15) 15th 2B at 104 (a vast improvement over 2024) 15th LF at 109 (much worse than 2024) 9th SS at 108 (7 behind #6 and way better than 2024) 5th in RFat 160 (before Abreu's HR, today.) 1st at 3B at 172 (Bregman is usually a slow starter.) Defense OAA, except catcher: 29th LF -4 (27th DRA-4) Big drop from '24 22nd SS -1 (10th DRA +1) 20th 2B -1 (14th DRS -1) 18th 1B -1 (30th in DRS -3) 17th 3B -2 (10th DRS +2) Big plus from 2024 5th CF +4 (3rd DRS +4) T3rd Catcher (fangraphs defensive ranking at +4.6) 2nd RF +2 (1st DRS +8) Overall 1B has been our weakest slot in both areas combined. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm not sure if there is much difference between pouting, brooding or a WTF attitude, and I know you have not said he's pouting or brooding as other have. I guess, I'm just not ready to concede his prolonged slow start is related to the move to DH. His injury and awful ending to 2024 further muddies the waters on identifying a reason that goes beyond it just being a slump. The move to DH very well might be a part of the problem. I just don't know. Here are some of Devers' slow starts or poor early season stretches over his career, and this one seems like the longest: .657 in 27 games/121 PAs 2025 .623 in just an 11 game April stretch in 2024 (48 PAs) .660 over 23 games/99 PAs in early '23 and part of a .753 in a 60 games stretch from April to June '23. .651 stretch in April '22 (19 games/81 PAs) .556 in 21 games and 88 PAs to start the 2020 season & .655 over 31 games/133 PAs including this last timeframe. This is actually worse than the 2025 start to a season. Longer and slightly worse. .768 in 2019 stretch of 34 games and 136 PAs, which included a smaller .639 21 game slump of 78 PAs. Seeing so many early season slumps in Devers' career makes me wonder, if this is anything out of line that needs some special explanation, such as the moves to DH or a continuing shoulder issue or both combined. Couldn't it just be a typical slow, early stretch? How can we ever know? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think the Sox are backed into a corner, because Devers is so bad at 3B defense. My hope has always been, and yes, it is just a hope, as of now, that Devers can play 1B at least as well as Casas. This would at least allow both Casas and Devers enough time to "rest" as the half time DH and then maybe stay healthy for 160 games in the line-up, each. That's not ideal, either, but a GM and manager have to do what is best. I'd love to see Refsnyder as the platoon DH, but that does not work. If Grissom and Romy keep hitting well, even as just platoon guys, one could see a role for them at DH, but no way can that happen in the current situation. Everyone sle is pretty good on D and would DH, in theory, only on "rest days." It does make sense to DH a guy 5-10 times a year rather than give them 3-6 full days off to get rest, but I don't think that fits our roster set-up. This doesn't even address the Yoshida issue. Our roster is pretty flexible in many areas, but having Devers, Casas and Refsnyder as players where DH is their best fit is rather constrictive for Brez and Cora. Even trading Yoshida hardly makes a dent in our current roster construction. Really, none of this is on Brez, unless you count adding Bregman to force Devers to DH or not trading Casas over the winter as adding to the problem, I can see the thinking there, but I really had a lot of faith in the bat of Casas and the glove of Bregman. I know the two forced Yoshida to be an $18M bench or AAA player, but it made the 13 man everyday roster much better. We could have tried to swap a LHB OF'er for a RHB one, but with Anthony on the doorstep, and his decent splits history, I can see why we decided to keep Duran & Abreu around. -
I don't see us trading for an OF'er, at all, even if he plays or can play 1B. I don't think we trade for a 1Bman, unless Casas is below .675 by mid May, and even then, doubtful. We might try Grissom/Romy for a while, first. The only everyday slot I see us addressing might be catcher, and I don't think Vaz is the answer, I like Narvaez a lot, but with a blackhole as out FT CF'er, I don't think we can have a second one in the line up at catcher. I think Narvaez could/would be a very nice second catcher, and Id rather have a blackhole on O ar catcher than CF, but Rafaela seems to have a very long leash. I do see Anthony squeezing out some playing time from Rafaela and Refsnyder, eventually, but I'm not sure when that happens. If it happens sooner rather than later, and he hits well, then maybe we let the catcher position rise it out. I'm also not sure we focus on obtaining a SP'er, even with Gio looking shaky in rehab and Houck scaring the living daylights out of most Sox fans. I think Buehler has turned the corner, so we have a solid 1-2 punch. I'm hopeful Bello can be a decent #3, if Houck cannot. I totally get the concern over the 4-5 slots and Houck/Bello plus Newcomb, Dobbins & Fitts (on IL.) but that is 5 pitchers for 3 slots, not counting Gio or possibles like Criswell, Wink or adding Drohan to the 40. I'm not counting on Sandoval, at all. I think the pen is where we will look, despite the massive depth of mediocrity we seem to have accumulated. We can't afford another Luis Garcia- Lucas Sims situation. Kelly, Weissert, Guerrero, Wilson, Wink and Criswell seem to volatile to be considered reliable. Some farm arms look like possibilities but are not on the 40 (yet.) Drohan, Stock, Burdi, Mata and I Campbell are maybe the closest to consideration. I don't see a trade until nearer the deadline, unless we have a major injury.
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Facing a RHP then a LHP helps us give some players one of the games off. My guess is all 13 everyday players start at least one game, today, except DHam. Let's see how it pans out. CLE is a good team, so I guess a split is maybe the expectation, but a sweep would be great. Game 1 line up: 1. Duran LF 2. Devers DH 3. Bregman 3B 4. Story SS 5. Abreu RF 6. Campbell 2B 7. Casas 1B 8. Sabol C 9. Rafaela CF Maybe vs the lefty, in game 2, we'll see Romy at 1B, Narvaez at C and Refsnyder in RF. It looks like DHam may not start, today, as he would have vs the RHP in game 1.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I never expected top 8 to 10. I figured maybe they'd improve from 27th to 30th in 2024 to around 14th to 16th, maybe a little better, if Story could stay healthy and REF/Yoshida played little to no OF. The 2B position was in question, although I viewed a DHam-Romy platoon, had that been the choice, as an upgrade over EValdez/Reyes/Grissom/Westbrook. I am losing faith in DRS. I think OAA is closer to what I think is right, but I guess 14th to 16th is about in the middle of 9 and 22. I just don't think we've shown even 14-16, so far, but we can. Story's arm is concerning. Bregman has not looked like the guy I've seen, here in HOU. Duran looks worse than 2024- Rafaela better. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Youk was way better at 3B than Devers is. I remember the Yaz from LF to 1B move, too. He did pretty well at 1B. I don't remember any pouting or brooding, and I'm not convinced Devers is pouting or that this move is why he is off to a longer than normal slow start to a season, -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think "radical" is not the word, I'd use, but when a player thinks he's good at defense and gets sent to DH, he does see it as a demotion. There is likely a wide range on how they handle it, and I'm not convinced the slow start by Devers is related to the "demotion." To me, moving Devers to the 6th slot or lower would be equal or more "radical" than the DH move. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I would think Yoshida playing in AAA and perhaps hitting well would make it easier to find a place for him (on another team.) We've hashed this over all winter long, and now that it looks like Devers will DH just about every game, the only slot for Yoshida would be LF. While he is a better hitter than Rafaela, I don't think he's better than Refsnyder vs LHPs and likely not Anthony vs LHPs or RHPs, as both are LHBs. There is also the chance CF might be the best slot for Campbell, especially if Mayer earns a promotion, anytime soon. (If Bregman bolts after 2025, there will be room for Mayer, Campbell & Story in the Sox infield.) I don't see what waiting does, if Yoshida is not building back up his value, or at least showing other GMs he can hit (or throw, if they want him to play LF.) We dont have an immediate 40 man roster crunch, right now, and Yoshida has options, so in this sense, there is no rush, but still, what are we waiting for? I have to think someone would take a healthy Yoshida at $2-6M a year. That's a hefty cost for us to pay for him to play somewhere else, but paying $12-16M a year is better than $18M a year. I can't see him cracking the Sox line-up, unless Devers or 1-2 OF'ers get hurt. I guess, if Bregman got hurt, we could play devers at 3B,a again and DH Yoshida or use a Yoshida-Ref platoon, if Anthony is called up. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes, I was talking about Bogaerts, who was one of the worst defensive SSs by some metrics and near the middle with others. They bent the knee to him at Story's expense is a similar situation to the Devers to DH choice, except one was for the good of the team, while the other was for the good of Bogey's ego, I guess. It's not an easy choice. I'm not writing off the effects these moves have on our players. I don't know how Bogey would have taken a moves to 2B, 3B or 1B, but he ended up bolting, anyway. Story seemed to take the move well and did a fine job at 2B, until injuries took over. Personally, I do not think Devers is pouting or brooding, as some suggest or seem to suggest, but I do not know. The other unknown might be is whatever mind games the move of Devers caused, are they related to his poor start to 2025? He has had many poor starts to seasons, although most have been just 10-20 games in length. I've been advocating moving Devers off 3B for many seasons. I'm not sure why Bloom & Co. made that promise or how they actually worded it. I can see how it looks like a betrayal and fully understand how Devers might feel. That being said, this sort of thing happens, all the time, but usually later in a player's career. I will also say, I find it difficult to understand Devers thinking he is a good fielder, but I guess most pros think they are better than they really are, or else they may lose confidence in themselves. He really sucks on D, and it hurt the team, badly. My idea about Devers playing 1B may never become a reality, for several reasons I won't get into, now. I wish they had steered him towards trying 1B out, long ago, but maybe the subject was just too tender to broach. I'm also not sure how Casas would handle moving to DH FT or half time. Our defense has not done much better, this year, despite some significant upgrades on paper. Bregman at 3B, Story at SS, Rafaela FT in CF and Duran FT in LF, plus the Narvaez addition. Maybe they will setlle down as the year goes on. They will need to. Our pitching staff cannot be asked to get 4-5 outs an inning, too many times. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Who said it was nothing or near nothing? We all know it really upset Devers, and there were valid reasons for being upset. That doesn't mean it wasn't the right choice for the team. Was Story "DEMOTED" to 2B, so an inferior defensive SS could stay at SS? That choice was done by the same guy who made the promises to Devers. I'll take the new guy doing what's best for the team, and I hope Devers comes to realize that. If Devers wants to play in the field, then all he has to do is play 1B better than the worst defender in MLB. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Anthony has not DH'd every game at Woo, and what about Portland, Greenville, Salem...? He can't DH and still work on throwing in between ABs or before or after games? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Huh? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maybe they know Yoshi is not going to DH, since Devers will DH 155-160 games, so work on throwing. He must also be taking batting practice. Rosenthal's 2 cents: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-insider-delivers-bad-news-for-red-sox-masataka-yoshida-future/ -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Found this... Masataka Yoshida, who began the season on the IL after a right shoulder labral repair during the offseason, is rehabbing in Fort Myers. Asked if Yoshida is near a rehab assignment, Cora said, “No, not yet.” Yoshida was able to hit during spring training, going 10-for-35 (.286). But he still is working on his throwing progression and won’t return until he’s able to make throws from the outfield. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Farm OPS Leaders 50+ ABs 1.034 Anthony AAA .993 Toro AAA .870 Jh Garcia AA .867 Anderson A- .848 Romero AA .844 Encarnacion A- .852 Grissom AAA .805 Arias A- .802 Eaton AAA 39+ ABs .895 Liendo AA .857 Y Rod A+ .839 Taylor A+ .834 Alcantara A+ OPS Against 9+ IP .230 Clarke .272 Early .431 McShane .485 Stock .489 Drohan & Brooks .490 Cellucci .506 Burdi .526 Mullins .536 Mills .541 Aita .568 Paez .584 Rogers .602 Sansone .620 Ingrassia -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He has options, so there is no reason to keep him from playing that I know of. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Putting demoted in caps does not do anything. Devers may see it as you do, but so what? I'm not sure why Yoshida has not been playing in AAA or AA, if he was ready to DH. He did DH in ST'ing, so that is weird. If he was ready on opening day, we'd have needed Devers ready to play 1B, that doy, too, but these guys were too slow to even ask him to try it. Plus, Casas was not traded, so it's all just speculation. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We should have traded Casas, started Devers at 1B and had the DH role open for Refsnyder/??? until Yoshida was ready.

