moonslav59

K Finnegan to DET

The .814 OPS Against vs RHBs is very troubling, under the new rules. Career: .766 v R .691 v L (.442 in 2025)

We'll demote Criswell before Murphy or DFA'ing Alcala. Ummm. Chris Mjurphy has a 2.70 ERA in 2025. (It was 4.91 in '23.) He has a 0.900 WHIP, but his FIP is over 5, due to 3 HRs in 16.2 IP.

Agreed. I must have suggested dozens of Casas & Yoshida trades, last winter. Depending on the return, trading an OF'er and calling Anthony up earlier might have been a great idea, too.

Here are the 2025 DRS numbers for the Sox: +16 Rafaela CF (DO NOT PLAY HIM AT 2B!) +14 Narvaez C (Thanks BREZ!) +10 Abreu RF (Still GG caliber in RF) +6 Duran LF (Not bad for a Fenway LF'er) +6 DHam 2B (Too bad he can't get on base enough to steal 75 bases.) +5 Anthony RF (in 1/4th the innings as Abreu!) +4 Bregman (missed some time) +2 Refsnyder RF (Helped by Fenway) +2 Wong (Bello's binky) +2 Romy 2B (just 254 innings) +1 Story (maybe at 2B in 2026) Others with 90+ innings: 0 Mayer at 3B, Toro at 3B and Sogard at 1B -2 Duran in CF (One poster swears he belongs in CF) -4 Casas at 1B (Should outs Yoshida as our next DH) -14 KC at 2B (Should be given every chance to win the 1B job or be sent to the OF or DH.) We really have just 2 bad fielders and one is out for the year, while the other may never play 2B for us, again.

If we do anything this offseason, I hope we can find a way to dump some of Yoshida's salary on another team. Take back a big salary dump in return, if needed. We should be looking at Casas, Campbell, Romy and Ref as DH options for 2026.

100%. I hope our 2026 alignment looks like this: C Narvaez 1B _____ (Casas) & Romy (Campbell) 2B Story SS Mayer 3B Bregman LF Duran (Jh Garcia) CF Rafaela RF Abreu & Refsnyder (returns for 1 more year) DH Anthony (Campbell/Jh Garcia) I am near certain we trade an OF'er this winter, if not at this deadline. Anthony OF and Campbel, Yoshida, Ref or Romy at DH. Jh Garcia as the 4th OF'er.

Perfect fit for the Sox!

I think the pendulum has swung towards the here and now, but the future is still a high enough priority that I doubt we try and empty the farm for a 2025 ring. Crochet, Bregman, Chapman, Buehler and Sandoval were not cheap. (Wilson was.) True, we traded Devers, so the huge outlay of cash was mitigated by a huge salary dump, but I think we will continue to build up the 26 for a strong run at ring #5. It may not be for 2025, but I think we keep adding more than we subtract. We don't have a lot of expensive arbs coming up, even beyond 2026. Cots has us about $74M under the tax line in 2026, and I would not be surprised if we went over by up to $19M. That could mean we have $75-90M to spend on... SP2 Closer 3B (some on 1B and 2B) In theory, we could spend $30M AAV on 3 players or $35M on 2 and $20M on a closer. We have a ton of cash coming off the books, and much of it does not really need top replacements, including Devers at DH (1B/3B.) We will need to extend or replace Bregman at 3B (Suarez?) We will need to extend or replace Chapman. We will need to replace Giolito, but we have Gio + Buehler's money to do it. We should add some more depth and fix the 1B issue. Maybe, we need to add a better 2B depth choice than DHam. Maybe counting on Mayer to stay healthy is a mistake.

That's how I see it, even if we trade Casas or he never wins back the 1B job. (He may/should be our next DH.) Blaze was a Rule 5 guy, who likely would have been selected, since he is ML ready. We'd have traded him for somebody. Matz is that somebody.

While it's not the top AL teams trading players to the NL, the 2025 AL has gotten worse, as a whole, via trades so far. (CLE & TBR looked like contenders but are selling.) To NL: Mason, Jh Duran, Littell & Sears To AL: E Suarez

We have compelling needs- just less than most teams. It took years to build a balanced and deep roster, and even with 5 of our better SP'ers on the IL, we are still 9th in fWAR pitching and 4th in ERA-. We need a solid SP'er- maybe another decent one. We need a LHB 1Bman to replace Toro (not costly, IMO.) We could use one more pen arm, but with Matz and players coming of the IL, we could be fine, there. While the need at 1B is significant, getting a platoon 1Bman is not something that compares to other teams' greater needs. To me, if we get a solid SP'er, hopefully not an expensive rental (not on $ but on return cost,) I'd be thrilled. Joe Ryan, Bubic or M Keller would be very nice. Is Sonny Gray on the IL? (How about Yoshida plus cash and prospects for him?) Others might include M Gore or Rasmussen and rental M Kelly

3 top RP'ers already traded! All to NL clubs.

I think the Jays will come back to earth, at some point. Maybe, they are as we speak, losing 4 of the last 5. They play KCR next and go to LAD, soon afterwards, then the Cubs & TEX. NO AL TEAM IS DOMINATING. Out of TOR's top 11 batters by PAs, 5 are below .700: .577 Santander (talk about a bad result on a FA signing) .622 Gimenez .634 Wagner (replaced by Suarez) .638 M Straw .698 Clement (404 PAs) Their top batters are: .897 Suarez (w AZ in NL) .889 Springer .865 Vladdy .824 Barger .782 Bichette .775 Kirk .749 Lukes The Sox have: .922 Bregman .830 Anthony .807 Abreu + .885 Refsnyder .793 Duran .752 Rafaela .751 Narvaez .710 Toro + .885 Romy .708 Story (.877 since June 7th) The Jays pitching has done okay, at best, so far, but they are 22nd in fWAR, as a team. They are 24th in ERA- and 15th in xFIP. ERAs by pitchers with most IP: 3.84 Berrios 4.24 Bassitt 3.82 Gausman (nice top 3 SP'ers, but our top 3 have better numbers) 2.68 Lauer 6.05 Francis (They added Bieber) 2.53 Y Rod 2.61 Little 4.76 Hoffman (another bad signing, but he does have 25 saves, somehow.) 5.56 Green 4.81 M Flaherty 4.89 Scherzer These guys can be beat, even with the addition of Bieber.

Alcala has really struggled and is a typical journeyman pitcher/waiver wire type guy. It makes no sense to me to demote a much better pitcher, in Murphy. (Also, Criswell will be the first to be demoted.) Alcala has a 4.67 ERA since 2023 with a 4.82 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. He did well over his first 5 games with us, and hasn't been terrible since, but his FIP over his last 12 games is 4.63. It's 7.35 in his last 7 games & 10.59 in his last 4. We can pick up guys like him off the waiver wire. We also have Fitts, Harrison & I Campbell on the active 40 and maybe Houck, Kelly or Guerrero coming off the IL.

So, the biggest trades, so far... (not in any order) E Suarez to SEA Jh Duran to PHI Bieber to TOR R Hesley to NYM Littell to CIN Tyler Rogers to NYM J Naylor to SEA Moderates: Paddock to DET D Jansen to MIL Kittredge to CHC Soroka to CHC R McMahon to NYY Matz to BOS A Vaughn to MIL Ke'Bryan to CIN S Dominguez to TOR Armed Rosario to NYY Sewald to DET R Urias to HOU The tracker link: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline-2025-transaction-tracker?t=trade-talk-and-rumors Looking at the top AL contenders (SO FAR!) : 1. SEA: Suarez, Naylor & C Ferguson 2. TOR: Bieber & Dominguez 3. DET: Paddock, Sewald, R Montero & R Dobnak 4. NYY: McMahon, Amed Rosario & A Slater 5. KCR: R Grichuk & A Frazier 6. BOS/LAA? HOU & TEX has done very little. CLE & TBR has sold.

This year, yes, and I guess I did short-change him a bit. I use OPS a lot- maybe too much. His .669 OPS beats a lot of Sox RP'ers- to the point where he would be top 3-4. Some ahead of him are out of the picture or not likely to be given high leverage innings the remained of the season. Our pen, as a whole, has an amazing .641 OPS Against. Of course, Chapman's .432 brings it down, by himself, but these guys have better OPSA than Matz- as RP'er only: .465 Slaten (IL and may not come back) .530 Guerrero (IL) .552 Whitlock (our #2 IMO) .566 Bernardino (LH'd, like Matz) .622 Wink (IL) .625 Murphy (more and more higher leverage of late) .649 Burdi (60 Day IL) .665 Hicks (hard to believe) Close to .669 .674 Weissert .685 Wilson I might order our pen like this- by high leverage trust: 1. Chapman 2. Whitlock 3. Wilson 4. Weissert 5/6. Matz/Hicks 7. Bernardino 8. Murphy (Alcala is out of options, so maybe Murphy gets demoted, but I'd just trade or DFA Alcala. If we trade for a pitcher, Criswell will be demoted, IMO.)

Dobbins to 60 Day IL to make room for Matz. Gotta wonder what is next.

I think Brez is going to surprise many posters.

Casas will be back. Campbell is not a 2Bman. (OF or 1B is about it.) Romy can platoon at 1B in 2026. I just think they knew Jordan was never going to be good enough.

Matz has zero BBs in his last 7 IP. (6BB & 0 HBP in last 36 IP w 34 Ks, also a 3,15 FIP) Season: 2.88 FIP and 3.44 ERA. A .669 OPS Against for the 34 year old in 2025. That's better than Wilson, Weissert, Murphy & Alcala. Maybe we do better with Matz than Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia. (He cost less.)

Yes, he will approve. Book it.

Cubs get Andrew Kittredge.

Seeing some late night flurries in July! Littell to CIN Suarez to SEA Matz to BOS Ramon Urias to HOU Earlier.... Jh Duran to PHI Helsley to NYM Tyler Rogers to NYM Soroka to CHC R Montero to DET Caleb Ferguson to SEA

SEA just made a major addition: Eugenio Suarez: 36 HRs and league leading 87 RBI .898 OPS Zack Littell to CIN. If we stand pat, we lose ground.