moonslav59

Quite a sensational leap.

Here is MLB.com's breakdown of Sox injured players: Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament right elbow/right flexor pronator strain/ Late '26 or early '27. Underwent Tommy John surgery and also a cleanup of his flexor tendon on Aug. 18. "So, attack the offseason and the rehab the right way," manager Alex Cora said. Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon, left knee/ 2026. Said he has heard different timetables, but none are longer than a year. Hopes to play on Opening Day 2026. Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear/ 2026. Progressing well several weeks after July 2 surgery. Expects to have a normal offseason and be ready for the start of Spring Training. Dobbins: Right ACL tear/ 2026. Underwent surgery to repair ACL on Aug. 13. The injury took place on July 11. Fitts: Right arm neuritis/ 2026. Regaining strength, but not throwing yet. Roman Anthony: Left oblique strain/ Mid Round Playoffs. The star rookie feels better moving around, but still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities and doesn't seem all that close. Marcelo Mayer: TFCC joint, right wrist/ Most likely not this year- but start of '26. Making progress in recovery from surgery. Has taken some grounders, done some throwing and taken dry swings. Outside shot he could return if Red Sox make a deep playoff run. Guerrero, Bernardino & Hicks might be available for playoffs. (Guerrero pitched rehab games.)

You may be right. I hope I am right.

Agreed. They would never offer that deal, now. That's different than saying he has to prove himself like Mayer does.

His career OPS makes sense, no? The one season you speak of was more PAs than the other two combined. Does it really seem absurd to think .820+ is my expectation?

I think our team is built better for a 3 game series than a 5 game series, but with so many days off in the playoffs, it's almost the same. Our 3 top SP'ers match up well with anybody else's. Our top 3-4 RP'ers match up well with anybody else's. Our defense has been top 10 over the second half of the season, and some metrics place us there for the full season. (9th in DRS and 10th in OAA.) Fangraphs has us 6th in baserunning. Our line-up could be an issue, as we will be facing some that are better than ours. I've always believed pitching matters more in the playoffs, but other teams have decent pitching, too. AL teams still in it... fWAR Pitching 18.5 BOS 16.5 CLE 16.3 NYY 15.2 DET 14.2 SEA 11.7 TOR (The two top seeds are the worst.) ERA-: BOS 86, CLE 91, NYY 96, DET 97, SEA 101, TOR 103 SP: DET 13.8, NYY 13.5, BOS 11.6, SEA 11.0, CLE 9.9, TOR 8.5 RP: BOS 6.9, CLE 6.6, Big drop) TOR & SEA 3.2, NYY 2.8, DET 1.4

His career OPS before 2025 was .830. Does that make sense? I actually low-balled him.

Mayer has never proven himself at the big league level. Casas went 840 PAs at .820. Yes, he has to prove he is over an injury and maybe a little bit that his first 840 PAs were not a fluke, but I see a big difference between Casas and Mayer. Casas was beyond the "development" stage of his career. He did not miss nearly as much time in the minors as Mayer. He had over 1200 PAs in the minors at .860. He'll be 26 in January. If he's healthy, he's a starter. He also hits lefties well enough to be a FT'er, unlike Lowe.

It may take a while for Casas to return, but I still think he'll be an .820+++ batter going forward. His 1B defense will likely never be even close to acceptable, so we should strive to set up the future with him at DH. That means no OF rotation through the DH slot, so one should be traded. That means we should still look for a way to trade the now red hot Yoshida, but if we can't/don't then Casas can play 1B until it's his time. I do think we need a plan B, and Lowe will be too expensive. Romy is an option as plan B, but right now he might be our FT 2Bman.

Plus Sandoval all year. Criswell may have missed a few but was mostly in the pen, this year. Gio & Bello missed a few starts early on. Perales might have pitched for BOS, this year, too. 30+ each by Sandoval & Crawford (Perales) 20+ each by Houck & Dobbins Some by Fitts, Gio, Bello, DMay Easily 162 possible starts, yes!

Top BB% since 2023 by Sox players still on the team: 13.2 Anthony 13.0 Casas 11.2 Refsnyder (Retire?) 11.0 Campbell 10.3 Bregman 9.4 Abreu 8.5 Narvaez (not too shabby for a rookie catcher) 7.7 Duran

I forgot they swept the first series 2-0. I just remembered the Astros sweeping them.

True, but most were the last 2 years. 2023 was Casas, Murphy, Bernardino & Kelly ('22 Duran & Bello) 2024: Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten (DHam & Sogard) and Harrison graduated with SFG. 2025: Anthony, Narvaez, Mayer, Campbell & Dobbins (Fitts & Guerrero) ________________________________ 2026? Early, Tolle, Jh Garcia, (Possible: Perales, Sandlin, Romero, Uberstine) 2027: Arias, Clarke, Valera, Taylor (Maybe: Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Phillips & Eyanson)

Team Records Since June 30th: 50-28 MIL 48-29 BOS 49-30 TOR 47-31 PHI 48-32 CLE 47-32 SEA 46-33 NYY

You missed by 1 or 2 games a few times, and did not play too well, the times you did get in. Maybe this year will be different. Getting a first round bye and then not having to play NYY or BOS next looks good for you guys.

Post All Star Game .916 Anthony (.750 Sept) .828 Ref (.785) .819 Duran (.692) .790 Lowe (.752) .780 DHam (.704) .778 Story (.795) .775 Eaton (.898) .728 Romy (.813) .727 Bregman (.640) .694 Abreu .690 Yoshida (.837) .650 Sogard (.695) .625 Wong (.590) .620 Narvaez (.702) .587 Rafaela (.669) .488 Toro

vs RHPs .903 Anthony .864 Lowe .851 Duran .809 Bregman .808 Abreu .767 Eaton .743 Story .740 Mayer .732 Yoshida .723 Narvaez .720 Rafaela .718 Romy (Good enough for FT) .659 Campbell .617 DHam .616 Refsnyder .552 Sogard .503 Wong ________________ vs LHPs .978 Romy (KaPOW!) .959 Refsnyder (4 straight seasons, now!) .857 Sogard .855 Bregman .770 Anthony (Proven FT'er?) .734 Story (did well vs both) .731 Narvaez (nearly identical to v RHPs) .678 Rafaela (Career reverse splits .698 v R/.642 v L) .676 Abreu (FT, next year?) .675 Campbell .673 Eaton .600 Duran (maybe he needs platoon- not Abreu) .508 Yoshida .488 Wong (Career reverse splits .688/.660) .416 Mayer (questions about being a FT batter) .402 Lowe (should never start v L) .358 DHam (should never bat v L)

Top Home OPS (Away) .990 Lowe .671 .976 Devers .826 .880 Duran .677 .874 Eaton .608 .861 Ref .809 .842 Romy .804 .820 Narvaez .637 .806 Anthony .910 .775 Story .709 .761 Bregman .875 .759 Rafaela .662 .744 Mayer .620 .738 Abreu .852 .694 Sogard .603 .657 Casas .521 .617 Yoshida .755 .600 Toro .724 .533 DHam .638 .530 Wong .473 .470 Campbell .847

Good to see Ceddanne end on a high note. He still would benefit from continuing improvement with plate discipline. His K% has fallen and his BB% has risen, so there is hope. Team BB% lowest 0.48 Ceddanne & Sogard 0.49 Yoshida & Toro 0.50 Story 0.53 Romy (It's not like he blew others away like he did in '23-'24.) .301 Mayer .277 Anthony .274 Campbell .269 Story .258 Refsnyder .249 Narvaez .244 Lowe .243 Duran .242 DHam & Abreu .241 Casas .238 Romy .291 Sogard .223 Wong .211 Eaton .199 Ceddanne .148 Toro .141 Bregman .117 Yoshida (Amazing that he is so much better than almost everyone. This is very rare for an undisciplined batter.) Ceddanne 2023+2024>>> 2025 K% 27.1% >>> 19.9% BB% 2.9% >>>4.8% OBP .275>>>.291 SLG .389>>>.411 OPS+ 84>>> 94 ISO: .144>>>.164 1.1 fWAR>>>3.6 fWAR (before today) 2.8 bWAR>>>4.6 bWAR (before today)

Final Pitching ERAs for 2025 (listed in order of most total batters faced) 60+ IP (Batters faced) 2.59 Crochet 814 (The biggest addition) 3.35 Bello 700 (statement year) 3.41 Giolito 613 (redemption year) 5.45 Buehler 508 (added to the list of failed SP signings) 2.25 Whitlock 293 (Huge season) 2.82 Weissert 27 (unsung pen hero) 4.13 Dobbins 256 (played a key role) 1.17 Chapman 228 (amazing season) ____________________ 30-59 IP 3.14 Bernardino 224 (Did fine) 3.35 Wilson 207 (helped a lot) 8.04 Houck 203 (gone till '27) 5.00 Fitts 195 (meh) 3.95 Newcomb 190 (should moved to pen) 4.58 Kelly 152 (meh) 3.12 Murphy 148 (earned a look in '26) 4.24 Slaten 137 (glad he's back) _________________ 15 to 29 IP 5.40 D May 133 (UGH... 8.20 Hicks 97 (...LEE) 2.08 Matz 82 (Nice deadline get) 3.57 Criswell 80 (too bad got hurt) 2.33 Early 79 (Wow!) 3.31 Alcala 76 (didn't stay long) 6.06 Tolle 74 (Needs some movement on his FBs) 4.15 Guerrero 72 (meh) ___________________ Under 15 IP Hendriks 59 Harrison 56 Winckowski 52 I Campbell 28 Burdi 21 Moran 20 Stock 15 Fulmer 13 Toro 8 Eaton 4

It's pretty telling that the Sox have just 3 batters qualify for things like the batting title (more than 502.) OPS in order of most PAs in 2025: .774 Duran (another very good season for Jarren) .741 Story (finally, a full season) .709 Rafaela (nice finish to '25) _______________________ 300-501 PAs .822 Bregman (missed time) .725 Narvaez (big plus to team) .786 Abreu (missed time) .826 Romy (came into his own) .859 Anthony (We could use him, right now!) ______________________ 150-299 PAs: .660 Toro .664 Campbell .838 Refsnyder .695 Yoshida .590 DHam .500 Wong _____________________ 20-149 PAs .674 Mayer (stabilized 3B & 2B for a short while) .790 Lowe (stabilized 1B) .580 Casas (His injury destabilized 1B) .661 Sogard (Did okay as a deep sub) .731 Eaton (Did more than okay as a deep sub)

I think it's about having Gio for the playoffs and not positioning for a preferred slot in the playoffs. These types of choices occur all season, when a manager chooses not to use their closer or a certain RP'er, because they are looking at the long game not just that one game's results.

We need Gio to start a playoff game. That is a no brainer. We start De Leon and try to win.

We could have gone with... 3B Eaton SS Sogard 2B DHam or played Romy at 2B and DHam/Sogard at 2B Story should be rested today.

Is Drohan, Jack Anderson of Isaac Coffey any better? Clearly better?