moonslav59

Wow, Annie Anthony and Mary Mayer are doing about the same as Kristina.

You aren't getting any offer close to Painter for Chapman, IMO.

Duran to PHI, Bubic to BOS, Abel & Romero to KCR.

He's really slumped badly. Have his splits vs RHPs been real bad, too, because Romy is not good vs RHPs. Who else plays 1B vs R? Until we get someone, maybe a DFA is not the best idea.

This was rather shocking to me. + Narvaez at C (one of the best in MLB) + Story at SS (replacing below avg D at SS in '24) + Bregman at 3B (replacing the worst in MLB) + a mix at 1B (replacing the worst in MLB) + Rafaela in CF full time + Duran in LF full time 2B remained a mess, but it was horrible in '24. I'm confounded.

I'd offer Chapman $12M/1 with a team option for 2027 at $12M with a $2M buyout. He gets $14M/1 or $24M/2.

Park factors make our hitting look better and pitching look worse than it is. BOS is 10th in wRC+ (105) BOS is 5th in ERA- (but our D allows many runs to score) The Sox are 8th in xFIP. (13th in SIERA)

Long ago, I wondered how Lynn and Rice might have done, had they been opening day players in 1974. At age 19, Rice hit .861 in A+, then he hit .987 in AA+AAA in 1973. He was killing AAA in '74 at .971. At age 21, Lynn hit .863 in AA (first prof level) That was 1973. I can see why he was not jumped to MLB the next April, but he did hit .857 in AAA in 1074. (He also had played college ball at USC beforehand.) I seriously doubt we'd have ruined them, had they joined the club in April 1974. I'm not sure they'd have led us to the playoffs, either.

The one more erb year factor gets my attention. He turns 28, soon, so I'd kick the tires and hope we can extend him for 2-3 more years. The issue is the cost.

He has improved, recently, but when you look at his full career- minors and majors- he barely moved the needle, at all, until very recently. He has such a long way to go in this area, that it is probably impossible he can ever get to even a respectable level on K zone discipline. His current career OPS is .705, and he is still very young. If he has a long career, he could decline as he gets past 30-32, but I gotta figure he should have a higher OPS than .700 as he get to peak prime years. It will likely keep him from ever being able to stay near or over .800, even for several seasons. He might get close for one season, maybe this year, but unless he keeps improving as much as he did, this year- over and over again. On another angle, there are a few players who have very high K rates, but still put up very good OPS. Most have much higher BB rates that Rafaela has even come close to doing, so I can understand thinking he'll never get there. I have serious doubts, too. Here are a few High K batters who are over .770 career w BB%. .820 T Story 28.2 K%/ 8.0 BB% .802 Teoscar 29.2%/7.0% .774 Chris Davis 32.9K%/ 9.9% BB% Rafaela is .705 with 24.2% K and 3.4% BB. What's hard to gauge is how real is this year's improvement and can or will it continue. Last year he was at a 26.4% K rate and 2.6 BB rate, which was maybe the worst in the history of MLB. Then... 26.4% to 18.8% K rate from '24 to '25 and 2.6% BB% to 4.5% He's got power, so his SLG can carry him a bit, but he is not likely going to be Teoscar with power. 4.5% BB rate is far behind the 3 players I listed. Looking at the worst BB/K numbers with highest OPS, since 1972, I found.... (Rafaela's is .14 career but .24 in 2025.) .20 Y Diaz .760 .21 S Perez.762 .23 D Dahl .773 .24 T Carpenter .832 (just 1148 PAs) .24 Bo Jackson .784 .24 Teoscar .802 It is a rare thing to see: I admit. I think we have to hope he can improve on 0.24, otherwise he will be one of two guys in over 50 years to hit over .800 and have that bad of a rate.

I doubt any would, but a good one, anyway.

What will his season ending OPS be? Or, what will his OPS be from today to the season end?

I guess my point is that it is hard to get a batter to change that aspect of hitting approach without it affecting his ability to hit good pitches. It usually takes adjusting how you recognize pitches and the twitch time you have, once you decide to swing. If it takes a split second more to decide, it would greatly affect your results.

I'd give Chapman $12M/1 with a second year club option at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Basically, $14M/1 or $24M/2.) I agree on Bregman. I'd love 3, but 4 gets him to sign, IMO.

You make the assumption that the ability to lay off bad pitches does not change anything else. Maybe he hesitates 1/1000 of a second on good pitches, too, as he attempts to lay off bad ones. It's not so simple, of many could be a star at batting.

In theory, yes, but some guys just seem to be able to hit well enough, despite this issue. I remember posters bashing Papi for his inability to lay off the sinkers down and away. When he slumped, some wanted him moved down in the order or worse. One thing I've always doubted is that if you mess with a successful batter, who has little strike zone discipline, maybe you mess him up. Of course, it makes sense that if Rafaela changed nothing else, except to lay off bad pitches, he'd have to be better, but I have to think you are changing a batters whole approach, and you have to be careful what you wish for.

If we won't move any OF'er to 1B, once should be traded.

It looks that way, but it's never bothered me that much, as long as the hitter (or team) is producing. As long as Rafaela keeps this up, I don't mind if he swings at balls 6 feet off the plate.

Travieso went 4.1 of 1 hit ball w 3 Ks and 0 BBs. J Bello went 2.2 w 1H, 2K and 0 BB. FCL won 7-0, today.

This happens.

Or 4.

If Duran keeps hitting homers, he'll never steal another base!

Story has been a big part of this team.

I'm thinking even Casas + Early is too much for a rental 1Bman, but I think I'd go that high for a good one. (No more, though.)

They ruined him for life. Now he can't even hit in the minors, anymore! (Green font)