moonslav59

Good post. Note: Spotrac has us right at the tax line, cots has us $3M under, soxprospects.com's podcast has us still being over the line. This is a change from previous years, even after the Devers salary dump trade.

We'll find out if and how we spend the "savings," hopefully this coming deadline and winter, but also over the next 8 years. It will be hard to pinpoint just what deals are made with the savings, but I do think the idea is that money spent on non DHs are likely to have better outcomes. With our record on spending on big ticket players being so poor since DD left, I can understand the reluctance to buy into this sort of talk, but then again, why do we assume spending $313M/10 on Devers was going to work out well, too? So far, it was, but this was year 1.4 into a 10 year deal on a FT DH. I mean, what could go wrong, right? Time will tell. We lost our best bat. Our Yankee killer. Our RBI king. That cannot be fixed in a year, if ever. We gained some with the farm (Tibbs & J Bello) and the pen (Hicks,) and maybe found a decent SP'er or pen ore help (Harrison). We are not so lefty-centric in our line-up, but we are also not good hitter-centric, either. (This is not a plus.) We may have gotten younger, but Devers was still in his early prime years. While getting out of the last 8 years of a 10 year deal might look good, historically and in the long term, there were still 2-3 years of peak prime left and another 2-3 years of decent post prime years likely to be seen. We made some immediate room for a rookie to play more. That rookie cannot be expected to immediately replace Devers' bat, nor ever replace it, fully or maybe in any significant proportion. The big plus has to come from how Brez spends the money (not if he spends it.) We may get something from the return players and prospects, but the bulk has to come from the FAs we sign or the big ticket players we can afford to trade for. The fact that this is all in the future and speculative, makes us go right back to the waiting game, once again. Some of us thought we had just gotten over that 5-6 year phase. Now, we are back to square one with perhaps a bit more hope in the kids, especially Narvaez, Rafaela, Bello and Dobbins. The big three have yet to prove anything, but we may not need all 3 to do so, at least right away. (To win, this year, we will.) I can see how those who turned on Devers weeks ago are rejoicing over this, but we just took a gut punch to our line-up, and there is no getting around that fact. It's hard to not think of this as anything more than a punt on 2025, even if we trade for someone like Hoskins or a solid, higher-priced rental pitcher. I called it a third down punt, because this is mid June, and we are far from 4th down and long. I'm not thrilled it came to this, but more and more, it looks to me like this needed to be done, and not paying anything to SFG could really help us, assuming we spend like we did, this past winter, again this coming winter. I have to think this would be a better team: (Sign Cease, Naylor & Helsley and trade Casas & Duran for another solid pitcher) 1. Mayer SS 2. Bregman 3B 3. Abreu-Refsnyder RF 4. Naylor 1B 5. Narvaez C 7. Anthony LF 8. Story/Campbell 2B 9. Rafaela/Campbell CF Bench: Wong, Ref/Abreu, Story/Campbell/Rafaela, Romy or Toro SP: Crochet, Cease, __trade___, Bello, Sadnoval (Dobbins, Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Fitts) RP: Helsley, Whitlock, Hicks, Slaten, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison/Fitts/Weissert/Bernardino...

I hear you, and I have my doubts about the veracity of this claim, even with the "multiple sources" aspect. I'm still not "happy" being critical of Devers on the way out, though.

Good way to look at it. Soxprospects.com says they'd have Harrison as their top pitching prospect, had he not graduated. Better than Perales, Tolle, Clarke and Valera might not eb saying all that much, but that is better than Priester and Fitts.

I would not separate Kennedy and JH on any blame pie chart. I'd just call it the FO, seperate from Brez. 40% Devers 30% Brez (Maybe less, see Cora's share.) 20% FO (just because they always have a share in anything bad.) 5% Cora (more, if Brez told him to get Devers to play 1B, and he refused to even try) 5% Bloom

The story about Devers getting upset over KC asking to play 1B confirms how high the toxic level was rising in the clubhouse. Imagine being a rookie and thinking you are doing what is best for the team, like every SP'er did after watching Nate take the ball in relief in the '18 WS, by going to ask Cora, if they can help in the pen in the same way, and being made to feel like you offended the star of the team. I've been a huge fan of Devers and was genuinely in the Devers forevers camp. Hell, I invented the term. He lost my respect- not as a hitter- but as a good teammate and role model. We have so many pre-arb players on this roster. They don't need that kind of grief as they struggle to make adjustments to the bigs. There are enough things on their plates, as is. I think I'm off the fence, now. (That was quick.) As much as I hate the loss of his bat, this needed to happen. To find a taker and only needing to take back the Hicks' slightly bad contract was the right thing to do. There. I said it.

Agreed, and with the DH slot wide open, now, there is zero need for Yoshida to ever have to make a single throw from the OF, at least until 2 OF'ers are traded, get hurt or retire. Right now, it looks like the DH slot helped clear up an already crowded OF, so why do we need Yoshida to play LF? If the guy can hit, now, he should be rehabbing in the minors as a DH and be ready to be called up, in case of an injury or OF'er trade.

For a player just entering peak prime, nobody should expect any kind of "regression." I'm never sure what TYPM means, but I have yet to agree with anything he has ever said. It seems impossible that a person exists that holds the exact opposite view that I hold on every single issue or point made, but so far, such a person exists. If regress to his career OPS of .849 was what was meant, then yes, some sort of drop off would happen. If regress means to a more reasonable age 24-28 OPS or .877, then it would hardly be a regression, at all. So far, Devers top OPS season was 2019 at .916, but some context is needed. He was just 22, then, and the league was different. Here is a look at his OPS+ since 2019. I see no reason to expect "regression," and I actually see the opposite, of course, and expected a career-like season in 2025, just as he was on pace for having in 2024, pre injury. 132 in '19 (was actually only his 5th best OPS+) 107 in '20 (COVID) 134 in '21 (slight improvement) 141 in '22 (natural towards prime growth) 126 in '23 (the only real blip on the expected age bell curve) 142 in '24 (back to the expected upside curve, and would have been higher w/o injury) 153 in '25 (seems just about in line with a normal bell curve)

How many years have we looked at the deadline as a chance to find a solid SP'er to fill a big hole? We all know how costly deadline deals are. Look at last year's Kikuchi deal cost the Astros. Brez finally did the proactive thing, no other GM has done in many years. Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Crawford, Giolito, Sandoval, Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Newcomb and then secondary choices like Whitlock, Winckowski, Murphy and others. (We traded away Priester and DFA'd Newcomb, but we still had over 10 decent choices.)

You almost always say what I think in about 1/10th the words. Good post, Nick.

One weird part of the Arenado talk was that he came out to say he'd play 1B, if they wanted him to. The idea of moving Devers off 3B has been discussed for over 3 years. It was the elephant in the room for too long, IMO. The team got better when Bregman bumped Devers off 3B. Casas has always been the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB. The math was simple. The whole DH only talk was a big mistake, assuming that's how they worded it to Devers. Is that such a horrible mistake, though? As it turned out, yes, but should it have been such a big deal? It became huge, because Devers made it huge. The whole think about Devers getting mad at KC for asking to play 1B made me understand why they felt trading him, now, while they still could, made sense. I hate seeing Devers gone. He was one of my favorite players since his call up in 2017. I can now see the reasoning behind getting out of the contract, now. Almost every long term deal in the past would fit the model of choosing getting out over staying in. I'm not projecting a quick and or steep decline for Devers, like some are doing. I think he'll be good for 5-6 more years, but $31M for a FT DH keeps jumping into my mind. A lot needs to be done by the Sox FO to repair what we just lost, but I'm swinging towards thinking this deal will turn out to be a plus, in the long run. I'm not on the fence on many issues, but right now, I still am.

Maybe they did not think Bregman was coming to BOS, until he fell in our laps. That's no excuse for poor communication, but it seems like Devers was set in his ways and actually thought he was a good defensive 3Bman, and the Bloom promise meant more to him than it should have.

The Sale trade made some sense, at the time. GMs are judges in hindsight, and that whole situation gets a clear F in that light. All three aspects of the trade ended up wrong: 1) Sale wins the CYA. (He did miss the playoffs, but is looking pretty good, this season, too.) 2) Grissom sucks. (This has very little hope of changing) 3) The Gio signing went south, almost day one. (Maybe this is changing, as we speak.)

I kinda feel a big trade was going to happen, especially when Abreu return applied the squeeze. Most of us felt it would be Duran or Abreu, so this Devers deal came out of the cloud. Opening up the DH slot does clear the OF logjam, for now, and I do think this was one reason we made the trade, now. Again, it comes down to the will they spend the money and how questions, but in some ways it does make sense to trade Devers and not Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. I just listened to the SP's podcast, and they said much or what we all have said. They brought up the Devers comment about how his boss needed to "do his job," and how Cora said "He's not here anymore," after Devers cried about Bloom's promise to keep him at 3B. The biggest issue they spoke to was that no DH deserves that kind of money and that most "models show Devers will not age well" and that his contract is not just "underwater," but it is in "dark red" territory. Hicks was about some money coming back, but we tried to sign him, before, so they liked him as a reliever for a while- has a "big FB." They think SF insisted we take his contract. The Harrison aspect shows a lot of promise, but as of now, he's just a 6th starter/RP. Been up and down as a starter. They think he'd be our top ranked prospect, if he had not graduated. He has not been consistent. FB is very good (2 mph higher than avg), but his secondary stuff needs improvement. He checks a lot of boxes, but needs a wider pitch mix. His slurry has been one of the worst pitches in MLB and his change-up is thrown 10% of the time. If we'd gotten him for someone other than Devers, we'd be "thrilled." He's probably the centerpoint of the deal, and maybe we can work with him to improve the mix. James Tibbs was #13, last year and was picked right after Braden Montgomery. Fringe top 100 guy with a high BB rate and some power. (7 Hrs in May.) His exit velo is close to Mayer and JH Garcia. Almost all the data points and rates look good. They named a bunch. No "stand out tool." They think he'll be 6 to 8 ranked near Jh G and Valera. (Dobbins graduates, next month. Bello was a late signing and repeated DSL. He is age 20 and is off to a great start, this year. They think he'll be in Salem by August. Has high spin rates, misses bats (28K in 18 IP) and a high GB rate. Somebody said he's the 5th best pitcher in the whole FCL complex, but he's one of the oldest pitchers there. They viewed Devers as an "obstacle to the long term future plan." There is "no longer an issue finding playing time for our rookies." They said other teams would have wanted Devers, but only if we paid a chunk of it, and obviously the Sox wanted no part of paying for Devers to play elsewhere. They said this trade does NOT put them under the tax line, unless they blow up the rest of the roster, after this. The hardest part was the "timing" and that does not seem to outweigh the face value pluses of this deal. Our line-up will be mostly pre-arb, even after Bregman and Abreu return. They asked, "Without Devers, can you see this team making a strong run?" They think Bregman will bat second, when he returns and wonder if KC will end up playing 1B, when Toro's bubble bursts. They didn't say this, but would this be the final product? C Narvaez, 1B KC, 2B Story, SS Mayer, 3B Bregman, LF Anthony, CF Rafaela, RF Abreu/Ref, DH Duran. They think we end up trading Penrod for something like what we got for Booser. They mentioned the return of Murphy, who is "looking better than ever" as a reason for DFA'ing Penrod. When Murphy is activated, someone else needs to be DFA'd or traded. This is NOT the Mookie Betts trade which was ownership driven. "This was Brez driven." This is his defining moment. It could be the "first nail in his coffin." He needs the rookies to produce, now. The Nomar trade is a "better comp," although that trade made the Sox better that year. This one is about the future- both in terms of finding playing time for the kids and the freeing up the budget for 9 more years. They still feel an OF'er will be traded, but not until winter. They see Rafaela as the one that stays. They think Bregman gets a new contract and maybe during this year, then they extend Mayer and Anthony. The offseason becomes crucial and some kind of splash deal has to happen, not counting bringing Bregman back. They ended with... They moved Devers before it became impossible to move him. The situation became unenterable. The teams wanting him would have dwindled. This is not going to be about what we got back for him: it was about getting out when they could. That's baseball, now.

I think many teams do not mind spending on 2 month deals, but the threat of Bregman coming back at $40M will scare most teams away. Players like Chapman, Wilson and maybe even Buehler and Gio might get more interest. Unlike some past summers, we actually do have some players other teams will want. I hope we are buyers, but much can change by the end of July. We just saw the biggest change in the history of June go down.

I think some feel we might as well kick the can on 2025 (not me) and trade anything and everything not tied down for 2026 and beyond.

Both Romy and Ref platoon vs LHPs, so only one can be the DH platoon, if that is how we go. I still don't see Yoshida in the plan, despite DH being opened up, now. I could see us starting with a Ref-Duran platoon at DH with "rest days" given to others playing DH, here and there. With Devers gone, we can't afford giving full days off to our remaining better hitters all that often. Narvaez, Anthony, KC, Mayer and Story can all DH a day or so. Abreu, Toto, Romy and others are not FT players and don't need to DH for "rest." v R DH: mostly Duran LF: Anthony, CF: Rafaela, RF: Abreu vs L DH: Refsnyder LF: Duran, CF: Rafaela, RF: Anthony When Bregman returns, start cycling in some infielders at DH, more often, or make a trade to free up their logjam. We do have some holes to plug.

The whole situation is so sad. There are certainly many issues with the way the organization is run and has been run for many years. This isn't the only business that has issues dealing with their employees, but this is THE GUY they paid. Until this spring, I had no idea about any issues with Devers or with the team about Devers. From my perspective, his move to 1B or DH/1B was something that should have been tried years ago- perhaps with kid gloves or whatever, but it should not have evolved into this mess. Looking at this line-up without Devers hurts my eyes. Are we toast? No. Are we a better team on the field without Devers? No. It's hard to look beyond this and find any good thing about this thing. Maybe, someday we will think differently, kinda like we did after the Bogey thing, but I don't see a Devers decline happening, anytime soon. Who knows, maybe SF found their next Pablito.

Agreed. There are high and higher priced players out there that are still very good players. We could add one or two, very soon or at the deadline to help, now, and then also spend heavily this winter. For the past couple winters, I've been saying "I'll believe it when I see it," but I did see it, this past winter, so I guess I have more hope the money will be spent. Spent wisely? That's another debate.

I'm not sure I can believe anything I read, these days, but there is a report that multiple sources confirmed that Devers was upset at Campbell for volunteering to play 1B, and that this undermined him. Either way, I think more was going on than we are aware of.

Here is a look at the 2026 AAV budget: 31.7 Bregman (if no opt out) 28.3 Crochet 23.3 Story 18.0 Yoshida 10.3 Hicks 9.2 Bello 9.1 Sandoval 8.0 Duran (club option taken) 7.5 Campbell 6.3 Rafaela 4.7 Whitlock I'm assuming Bregman returns, Buehler, Gio & Hendriks do not return for their option years. With so many mutual options and various buyouts, I'm not sure what the cost will the lux tax budget. The total for these 11 players plus buyout should be about $158M AAV. The tax line is $244M, so let's see how much the winter spending budget might be. $18M Player Benefits + $1.7M Arb Pool brings us to about $178M. Arb guesses: $5M Houck (2 of 3) $4.0M Crawford, $1.4M Wong (1 of 3) 1.3 Bernardino (1 of 4) 1.3 Casas (1 of 3) 1.0 Kelly (1 of 3)= $14M plus $8M remaining 26 and 40 man roster brings us to about $200M. That leaves us $44M to spend and stay at the tax line. That might get us Cease and Helsley. I probably missed something.

Good call. I forgot about it, until you mentioned it.

For once, we started a season with rotation depth. This year, we have really needed it. We even ended up giving Newcomb a shot, since we had so many guys out at once. We are doing this without our best pitcher, last year (Houck). We are doing this with zero IP from our IP leader, last year (Crawford.) We are doing this with our highest AAV given to a SP'er since Sale (Buehler) having an ERA north of 5. We are doing this without Pivetta, who was our rock for several years. We haven't even started our best rotation depth pitchers from 2024 (Criswell) at all, this year. (Criswell had a 3.49 ERA in 18 GS in '24.) Crochet was a major get. Bello is finally coming into his own. Dobbins came out of nowhere. Gio has had 3 really nice starts in his last 5 starts, and one was pretty good- the one where he was yanked with 2 outs in the 5th. All we need is Buehler, Houck, Crawford or Sandoval to give us a boost from the 5 slot, and of course, continued good pitching from the 4 guys listed above.

Notice how Bogey is rarely mentioned, anymore. Tracking his OPS.... .939 in '19 .867 in '20 .863 in '21 .833 in '22 .790 in '23 .688 in '24 .625 in '25 To be fair, his OPS+ has only dropped since 118 w BOS in 2022. (110>79>50) There was a time fans were bummed we traded Beni. Many were bummed we let Jacoby bolt. To a lesser extent, some were upset after O'Neill started off 2025 hot. Lots of examples like this one.

For this season, this win might be bigger than any one of the Yankee wins.