moonslav59

No. I was showing how your way of showing a player's value is faulty. The Bregman and Narvaez examples are proof of that. You claimed the team did worse after we lost Bregman and implied Devers was partially responsible.

The time he played injured knocked him down a few slots, but maybe other players could say the same.

I agree. We could maybe trade for a 1Bman, 2Bman or DH that could give us more than we can expect, now. That could help take a chunk out of the replacement pie needed from those already on the roster. Either way, the task is daunting.

I mean more than net +2 games.

LOL. I brought the sample size down to where each team averages 6 qualifying players, when 9 are in each line-up. I don't think my point was a big reach. Going down just 20 PAs is hardly a deceiving ploy. At 210 PAs, NYY and BOS both have 3 guys over .770 and .790.

True. fangraphs has his hitting at 16.7 (16th best in MLB)and his defense at -8.1 due to the positional -8.1 for being a DH. I get how they come up with the 2.1 WAR for Devers, but to me, he won more than 2 games for the Sox, this year.

I'm glad the trade improved our pitching and that it was doing better before the trade. I do agree that our pitching needed to be better, even with Devers, but the trade barely changes that fact. Yous till haven't answer my question about why you are still high on Toro, when his poor sample size equals the sample size of our better pitching.

I agree, and I never said I expected 25% less runs, going forward. We can't minimize that Devers was a huge part of our offense. The players in front and behind him benefited from him being in the line-up. He had a .401 OBP. We may replace that with .300 to .330-- maybe. Then, there are the RBIs and HRs. I think it's more than 2 games difference, going forward. It's also not 25% less runs, and I admitted not 15%, either.

Max, we were 26-26, when Bregman went down. We are 13-11 since. While Devers did not do great in those 24 games, it's not fair to act like he wasn't a factor, but we scored 94 runs and Devers scored 13 and knocked in 11 (minus the 3HRs and that totals 21 out of 94 runs he had a role in.)

Apparently, he talked to him, but Cora didn't or wouldn't.

DHam had a 17 game stretch in 2024 where he hit .816. .139 OPS in first 9 games. .191 OPS in last 23 games. He got on base 95 times in 2024 and stole 33 bases. I think that is why we kept him around. He also played plus defense at 2B, where we have hurt badly on O & D for many years.

They must have felt KC would not be playing enough to further his growth. I didn't see this coming, until Bregman returned. They have not announced who will be promoted. To me, the WTF is keeping Eaton over KC. I have DHam>Eaton.

Not this. LOL!

...and also one with balls enough to move Devers off 3B.

Yes, until 2019, when DD was not allowed to replace Kimbrel & Kelly- only Pearce. He was also nearly force to tarde Betts. I still think the Sox-DD separation was mutually desirable, at that point.

I'm not even sure MIL says yes to this offer.

Okay. I will say that if you add Devers Runs and RBI and minus his Hrs, it was 97 runs accounted for. That was 25% of our runs. 15% is too high, I admit, but I suggested that as a possible high end amount. Even a loss of 11 or 12% might be too high.

Yup. Out of 74 qualifying players in MLB, Duran is 51st at .724. Rafaela is 60th at .681, Campbell is 66th at .664 and Story is 71st at .638. I think the cutoff is 230 PAs. For what it's worth, if you lower it to 210 PAs, we jump from 5 to 8 players. Here are those rankings: 1. Judge 1.192 3. Bregman .938 (6. Devers .905) 20. Narvaez .814 24. Grisham .798 25. Goldschmidt .797 27. Abreu .792 36. Rice .769 42. Bellinger .763 55. Wells .731 60. Volpe .726 62. Duran .724 66. Dominguez .708 72. Rafaela .681 80. Campbell .664 85. Story .638 We'd have to go down to 90 PAs to get Refsnyder and other Sox players on the top part of the list of 189 players, or about 6 player per team: 7. Refsnyder .900 21. Toro .835 25. Romy .819 28. Narvaez .814 4 in the top 30, looks pretty nice. (nyy HAS 1.) 38. Abreu .792 (NYY has 6 in the top 30 to our 5.)

There is no sugar coating this, and the loss may end up being more like 15% of the offense. I'm also so damn tired of counting on returning IL players, that never seem to give what we hoped for.

I think we can sign Cease, Helsley and Hoskins (RHB) or Naylor (LHB) at 1B and not be too far over the tax line, assuming Gio does not trigger the 3rd year option, and we say good bye to Buehler, Chapman, Wilson & Refsnyder. I'm not projecting any trade, but one almost has to happen. For argument's sake, let's say we trade Casas for a prospect, keep Bregman and sign Cease, Helsley & Hoskins. This could be our 26: 1. L Duran DH/LF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Abreu RF/R Anthony RF 4. R Hoskins 1B 5. L Mayer SS or 2B 6. R Narvaez C 7. L Anthony LF/ R Romy DH 8. Story 2B or SS (Campbell?) 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Campbell, Romy or Abreu, Jh Garcia/DHam? SP: Crochet, Cease, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins (Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Fitts) RP: Helsley, Whitlock, Hicks, Slaten, Houck, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert (Bernardino, Fitts, Kelly, Guerrero, Burdi, Murphy, Perales)

Harrison may end up replacing Buehler after one more bad start. Otherwise, he goes to the pen. Hicks should be a plus for our pen, and he can pitch multiple innings each appearance. The Devers trade may have fixed the pen, and with an eventual return from Houck, Crawford, Slaten and a first time appearance by Sandoval, our pen could easily become a solid plus in 2025 as well as beyond, although we will need a closer for 2026. I'm worried most about the rotation, despite the decent depth Brez amassed over the winter. I'm not totally confident that Bello and Dobbins can continue pitching like decent #2's or 3's. I'd rather view them as our #4-5, going forward. I have no faith that Houck can regain #2 status, and Crawford seems like a total unknown value piece for 2025. I have more faith in Sandoval or a resurgence by Buehler than Houck and or Crawford. Fitts could rebound. I'm not sure why Criswell has never started, after he did well as one, last year. I'd love to see us trade for a second ace, but not a 2 month rental, unless we can extend the guy. I'm not sure ATL is looking to buy, and why would they want Story's contract? Ozuna for Story and cash? Ozuna is just a rental, and maybe Story could end up being a better bat than we think he can be, going forward. Ozuna does bat RH'd, so maybe he could be an answer, but ATL would likely want a prospect or two- not Story. They may demand Arias and Sandlin or Romero, Mullins and Clarke. Is that worth 2 months of 40 HR man Ozuna?

Again, tell me why you assume our pitching, which has been up and down, all year, will suddenly continue as it has done over the last 6-7 games, but you also have total faith in Toro at 1B- a guy who has sucked over the last 6-7 games (something like 2 for 17.) We need guys like Toro to do even better than they were doing before the trade. IMO, that is asking too much from him, Romy and a few others. I do think Story can do better than his current OPS. I think Abreu and Bregman can make an impact, when they return, but Bregman is not close to returning. We can count on the kids, sure, but we will be seeing Mayer, Anthony and Narvaez- 3 rookies- batting 3-4-5 almost every game and Campbell 7th or 8th almost every game. Maybe Duran becomes the 2024 Duran, again. That's not far-fetched. I'm not expecting more from Refsnyder. he's already done great. Who else will make up for the loss of a guy who accounted for 25% of our runs- pre trade? That's a big ask of an iffy pitching staff and a bunch of rookie batters.

No, but Devers did account for over 25% of our runs. I'm not just tossing out a random number. Add his Runs and RBIs and subtract his HRs, and he accounted for just over 25% of our runs. An average player should account for 11% of the runs (1/9th.) I'm not sure we can replace Devers with an average bat, as out 7, 8 and 9 best bats have not been at the league average, so why should our 10th guy provide 11% or our runs? I could see justifying a drop or about 15% in offense. Maybe 12-13%, if we get lucky- maybe less if we make a trade for a bat.

I think guys like Goldschmidt and Grisham have been exceeding expectations, and their pitching staff has done better than many expected, since Cole missed the whole season. I mean, we knew Fried was real good, but 9-2 1.89 good? Rodon has always been good, but expecting 15 GS and 90 IP was a big if. Schmidt and Yarbrough are doing well- maybe that was a little unexpected, but not really. I'm surprised they have done this well with a closer at a 5.47 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The whole AL looked mediocre to me, in March. That was the major reason I had high hopes for the Sox. I'm not sure my opinion has changed much.

Ben did spend a lot, but he also dumped salary DD never really did. The AGon, Crawford Beckett salary dump trade to the Dodgers was perhaps the biggest dump in MLB history, if indexed for inflation. Ben's spending immediately afterwards was somewhat muted and diffused over several mid level contracts, like Vic, Napoli S Drew and Dempster. I think DD had more leeway, but some felt Ben chose not to spend wildly on big deals and was too resistant to trading top prospects.