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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Well, he wasn't staying as the DH. Brez made that as clear as day.
  2. moonslav59
    Agreed. No Tucker. No Alonso or Schwarber, either. Bregman was a bit of a surprise, but he was shorter term, and we ended dumping the Devers contract, so the "spending more" is still very much in the air. I do think we make a big trade- maybe two, probably for a #2 SP'er but maybe also a 3Bman, 2Bman or 1Bman. Maybe sign 1-2 mid level guys like Merrill Kelly, G Torres or Hoskins.
  3. moonslav59
    The idea was to play him at 1B, if he stayed.
  4. moonslav59
    I'd say Harrison or Fitts. Criswell might not have much return value. Kelly, Guerrero, Murphy...
  5. moonslav59
    Doesn't Casas seem like an obvious match for Diaz?
  6. moonslav59
    True! Maybe with a bad throw, too.
  7. moonslav59
    The metrics do point to about even on D from 2024 to 2025, but it seemed better to me: 4 much better by observations: 3B: Bregman> Devers SS: Story> Rafaela, DHam C: Narvaez, Wong> Wong, McGuire, Jansen CF: Rafaela, Duran < Duran>Rafaela 4 Close to equal: RF: Abreu, Anthony, Ref =Abreu, Anthony, Ref-Eaton LF: Duran (Anthony)=>Duran, O'Neill, Ref 1B: Toro, Romy, Lowe, Casas=>DSmith, Casas, Dalbec, Romy-Cooper 2B: KCampbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela= EValdez, DHam, Grissom, Romy-Westbrook
  8. moonslav59
    The only way they sign Tucker is if they trade Duran AND Abreu. Both have high trade value but also serious flaws that have been pointed out endlessly. I doubt we go this route. Instead, we need a 3Bman (Breggie or Mayer?) and 1Bman. I'd add 2B, but Mayer could play 2B or 3B. We need a replacement for Gio beyond returning guys like Crawford, Sandoval & Dobbins. 32 Huge needs- maybe 4. Losing Bregman and Devers' contracts should help, but we have lost of extensions kicking in, including Crochet's & Anthony's. We have trade pieces to fill 1 or 2 of these needs, so the money spent need not be too enormous for JH to handle, but with him, one never knows.
  9. moonslav59
    The Rays constantly trade players as they start to make more money. I'd say the odds are 95% he's a goner. I think they'll get better than DHam for him. They might get better than DHam plus Sandlin or Mullins, if they survive the Rule 5 draft, or they'd probably want Sandlin before Rule 5, too. Their 40 man is not as "tight" was ours. Pete Fairbanks has a $7M club option with $1M buyout. How about Casas, Sandlin and DHam for Fairbanks and Yandy? (I might even add a non 40 man roster prospect like YRod, Bleis, Cespedes or Castro.)
  10. moonslav59
    All true, but I asked if it improved. Average at 3B and SS and up and down at 1B was much better than 2024. Duran was worse. RF was worse. C and 2B were better. Overall, we improved a lot from 2023 and a little from 2024. We still have more to go.
  11. moonslav59
    That nailed it.
  12. moonslav59
    Do you not think our D improved? I've said all along, we allow too many unearned runs and make too many baserunning mistakes. I'm not saying we fixed the problems, but this defense is way better than 2023 and better than 2024. Now, we may lose Bregman, and maybe Casas will be back at 1B. We may get worse, next year, especially if we trade Abreu or Rafaela over Duran.
  13. moonslav59
    Abreu is moving in the right direction with his splits v L. He's less expensive and has one more year of control. He's way better on D and plays Fenway's difficult RF very well. I'm back to choosing Duran as the OF'er we should trade- not because I do not like him, but because I think he'll bring back what we need. (He'd be part of a bigger package.)
  14. moonslav59
    We need a 2Bman and have 4 FT OF'ers with 2-3 promising reserves. Duran did miss time in '23,
  15. moonslav59
    Yup. Now, even MVP is using errors (fldg% is about the same.) 2023 to 2025 DRS Rankings (90 entries: 30 teams x 3 seasons) 13. BOS 2024 32. BOS 2025 71. BOS 2023 OAA 28. BOS +11 in 2025 71. BOS -18 in 2024 89. BOS -51 in 2023 (a +62 turnaround in 2 seasons.) Fangraph's rankings: 14th 2025 Sox 70th 2024 Sox 88th 2023 Sox (a remarkable improvement from third worst to top 15 from 3 seasons, which is like top 5 per 30 teams.)
  16. moonslav59
    True, but he still is one of our best offensive players, even without his baserunning. Some of the batters you mentioned are straight platoon players, but maybe Duran should be too.
  17. moonslav59
    Mullins will likely not get picked. Sandlin, too. I suppose we could wait until after Rule 5 for that offer.
  18. moonslav59
    True dat!
  19. moonslav59
    From 2024 to 2025, Fangraphs has DHam ranked about 30th in fWAR among players where 2B is their "primary position." (500+ PAs) His 1.8 fWAR in 511 PAs comes to a better fWAR per PA than about 5-7 player above him, making him, by this metric a top 25 2Bman over the past 2 seasons. Of course, that one stretch in 2024 inflates his numbers, and the recency aspect hurts his value, but I do think some GMs would like him on their 40. The Rays might take DHam & Casas for Yandy, or maybe DHam + Fitts or Criswell & ICampbell.
  20. moonslav59
    He's decent on D, but at 2B only, so the "utility" aspect is not really present. He might be an okay batter vs RHPs, but his 2025 numbers show otherwise. .618 v R in 2025 (174 PAs) .729 in 2024 (267) We might be surprised that several GMs would want DHam, but I doubt they give a Yandy Diaz type for him, despite his 1 year left at $12M and at age 34.
  21. moonslav59
    If we traded 2 OF'ers it could work.
  22. moonslav59
    I'd try to sub Clarke or Valera & Mullins/Sandlin, but I'm not sure that would be enough.
  23. moonslav59
    Top Sox wRC+ Leaders for 2025 (200+ PAs unless noted) 146 Devers (traded) 140 Anthony (ended season on IL) 128 Refsnyder (platoon) 125 Bregman (opt out clause) 123 Romy (started season as platoon) 114 Lowe (mid August addition) 119 PAs 111 Duran (hot winter trade rumors) 110 Abreu (platoon and spent time on IL) 101 Story (first full season since COL days) 97 Narvaez (pretty good for a catcher) 91 Rafaela (could win GG Award) 88 Yoshida (misse dtime, then came on strong at the end) 86 Campbell, 83 Sogard (104 PAs) 80 Mayer (136) 77 Toro, 60 DHam (194) 56 Casas (112) 39 Wong (188)
  24. moonslav59
    Yanks lost again!
  25. moonslav59
    This is the point I've been making for yrs. While 1 year deals are "less risky," in general, we've struck out on all of them. Wacha & Hill did okay, but missed key moments of the season. It's easy to look back and select a longer deal that worked better, but in our case, even the bad longer term deals would have just broken even, because all our one year deals sucked. $5M + $6M Perez + $10M Richards '20-'21 ($21M) $7M Wacha+ $5M Hill "22 ($12M) $10 Kluber + $10M Paxton '23 ($20M) $39M/2 Giolito '24 ($19M) $21M Buehler+ $18M/2 Sandoval '25 ($49M counting GIo and 1/2 Sandoval) That's about $120M total. Some comps: 2022: $110M/6 Gausman, $44M/2 Rodon, $36M/3 Kikuchi 2023: $63M/3 Bassitt, $40M/3 Eflin, $34M/2 Nate, $26M/2 Wacha 2024: $75M/3 S Gray, $53M/4 Imanaga, $45M/3 S Lugo, $32M/2 Wacha 2025: $75M/3 Nate, $63M/3 Kikuchi, $55M/4 Pivetta, $35M/2 Flaherty, $29M/2 Boyd Cherry-picked- YES!
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