moonslav59

I will not be one bit surprised if we bring back close to the status quo. I will not look to that as something I agree to. I can see 4-5 needs, but to me, we need to concentrate on adding high(er) quality, at the expense of filling all our needs. We have a lot of depth, so I'd rather pin my hopes and prayers one someone filling the 4th and 5th slots from within the system. Our SP'er depth can help cover the pen needs. Players like Casas/Romy (1B) Mayer/Romy/DHam/Sogard (3B) or Mayer/Romy/Sogard/Eaton (3B) can be allowed to fill the other slot. I'd rather add 3 higher quality players than 5, and adding 5 would create a roster crunch we currently don't really have. An argument can be made to add 4 (less) quality players and then making a 3 for 1 trade to fill all 5 needs, but I still like the idea of just adding the 3 best players we can get for the winter budget we will have plus one big trade. Sure, Suarez is a risk. I'm not thrilled with the idea, but I'm thinking he may be one guy JH allows to spend on, due to the lower length of the deal vs Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. Suarez could be an enormous bust, and there are reasons he's bene traded so often and signed to shorter term deals. If we keep it to 3 high quality players- one being by trade, then maybe we can hope for Alonso and someone like Polanco/Torres/Castro/Rengifo/BLowe for 2B. Something like Alonso, Polanco and Lodolo might do it. If we could get Lodolo for Campbell, Garcia and Crawford and keep Duran and Abreu- all the better. 1. L Anthony LF 2. S Polanco 2B 3. L Duran DH (R Refsnyder/R Romy DH) 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Romy, Ref, Wong, DHam/Sogard/Eaton/Romero SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford (AAA: Early, Tolle, Harrison, Dobbins, Perales) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks (AAA: Murphy, Wink, Moran, Criswell, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin, Mullins, Song.)

I'm not for signing a FA, pitcher this winter, and not just because none jump out at me as sure fire SP'ers. I've mentioned Merrill Kelly on a 2 year deal as an option, but I'd like to see us trade for Greene, Lodolo or maybe Ryan. Spend on big bats. I'm with Drew and others on letting the defense take care of itself, except that I do not think signing a DH only bopper as the best idea. (Better than nothing, though.) If all we have is $40-45M to spend this winter, I'd do this... Alonso (1B/DH) or Suarez (3B/1B) 2B: Torres, B Lowe, Castro, Rengifo (3B?) or Moncada (3B/2B) If no 1Bman from line one, then maybe Hoskins, Naylor, O'Hearn or Bell Matz or the like. I guess I'd be okay with Bichette and Hoskins, but it's no big upgrade on power. I doubt we can get Bichette & Suarez for under $45M AAV, unless we defer a bunch of cash.

He'd be a slight upgrade over Bregman, mostly due to his age. Yes, 29 HRs back in 2021. Big whoop. We'd need a Bregman or Bichette AND a Suarez or Alonso. To me, Bichette will cost way to much for 20-25 Hrs and maybe an .800 season. If all we do is Bichette (not Breggie), Gio and Matz, I'm not expecting any better results than 2025's. Of course, we can with better health and or better seasons from several players, but every team has that hope and prayer.

soxprospects.com has these guys out of options: Winckowski Criswell Grissom Lowe Moran I doubt we wait until ST'ing to see if Grissom can make the 26. He'll be traded or DFA'd, unless we trade DHam, instead. (Even then, maybe...) Lowe will be non tendered, IMO, but we may sign him back, if we pass on all the others. I'd keep Moran around, but no biggie, if we trade him. Same with Wink. I'd keep Criswell around, but the problem is that he kinda sucks out of the pen, and we have 10 SP'ers ahead of him. I think he's good enough to be traded not DFA'd. Just hope he doesn't pull a Priester.

I think it would be dumb to non tender him. We've sign more expensive pitchers on the IL, like Paxton, Sandoval, and even Hendriks cost more than $4M/yr. Houck was our best pitcher in 2024, and he has nasty stuff. We don't really have a 40 man roster crunch, either, so that is not a reason to let him go. Even if he comes back as a RP'er or closer in 2027, he should be worth the $4M for 2026 and $4M for 2027- essentially $8M for 2027.

Casas has 3 options, according to sp.com. I'm sure Cora believes Story is the best defensive SS in MLB, so I'm not sure how Brez gets Story to 2B. He couldn't even get the no brainer Devers to 1B done. I'd be fine with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B, too. I'm not so sure about Story at 3B, but if we traded for KMarte, I'd be okay with Story at 3B, Mayer at SS, K Marte at 2B and someone new at 1B. Hopefully, we get a bid power bat at 1B, but that would require outbidding everyone for Alonso or Suarez.

Then, a resounding NO on trading for him. If we want him that badly, sign him next winter.

All true. I've been saying we need 3 top quality players for a long time- a SP and 2 power bats (1B, 2B/3B.) I have never defended JH & Co. for spending less than other teams, especially since 2020. I've never denied that he CAN spend more but has chosen not to do so, for the most part. I have been known to point out that his past was full of ups and downs in spending. There was some complaining, but as long as the rings kept coming every 3-5 years, we were pretty much okay with it. Now that 7 years have ticked away, and we've watched all our biggest stars walk away or be traded, we have rightfully become angry or frustrated. The lack of spending only multiplies that anger. These are fact, too: we cut over $20M from 2009 (1/7th) and from 2012 to 2013 (1/9th). We made a massive cut from 2019 to 2020, but that wasn't the end of it. What has been overlooked a little is that the Sox also upped spending by $20M+ from 2021 to 2022 and from 2024 to 2025, but since so many other teams had jumped their spending significantly, we have not been a top 10 spender since 2022. (Yes, we were #6 in 2022.) Had we stayed the same as 2022 spending in 2023, we'd have still dropped out of the top 10. That's no excuse, but it does show that a major reason we have dropped in the rankings is more about other teams spending way more than JH spending way less. Another example that emphasizes this is that JH spent $23M more in '24 than '25 but we only went from #13 to #12. He followed that up with a $22M uptick and went from #12 to #11, according to Steve the Ump. Again, I am not defending JH & Co. The team makes a ton of revenue- more than 27 other teams! We should be a top 3-4 spending team, of at least a top 6 team. There is no excuse. I'll never agree that it's okay not to spend top 6. (There is a big drop from #6 to #7.) According to cots, our CB Tax line for 2025 was $246M, which ranks 7th, but with Devers, Bregman, Buehler, Gio and a few smaller deals off the books, this winter, we are right back to square one- wondering what the hell JH is going to do. I have zero expectations that he will spend a lot. I'm hoping he at least agrees to spend up to the tax line, and that might be just enough to barely meet our biggest needs, but I won't be shocked if he doesn't. I'd love to see us spend up to the second line, but that would be at a year two tax rate. Horrors! I agree that we have wasted money trying to go cheap on pitching, although we did spend $40M on Buehler + Sandoval, which is 3-4 times what we've spent on pitching since the Sale & Nate extensions. We need to do better, and I think we have to follow the Crochet, Sale, Schilling and Pedro model- trade for one, then extend him. Use the budget space to sign 2 big bats. Forget the 4-5 mediocre additions: go bold and just add 3 of the highest quality players we can get vis trade and $pending.

He's a big downtick from Alonso, but he did better than the whole Sox team at 1B in 2025 and 2024: 2024: .266 27 71 Vientos (413 PAs) .238 20 75 Boston (640) 2025: .233 17 61 Vientos (463 PAs) .244 16 76 Boston (662)

I'd like Bichette for 2B, but he hasn't hit 25 HRs since '21 and has never hit 30. We really need a bigger power bat than him. I guess we could improve our power by 10 at 2-3 positions rather than by 25 at 1 position, but I just don't see 2-3 positions being rolled over with major improvements, this winter. We can be pretty certain that Brez, Cora & Co. are counting on Mayer to play 2B or 3B, so there is one non add position, and if it's 3B with no Bregman return, expect less there. That leaves 2 positions where major upgrades can occur: 1B and 2B/3B (wherever Mayer is not playing.) 2025 Position Numbers: 1B: .244 16 76 (.691 OPS) 2B: .241 12 56 (.670 OPS) (3B was .265 22 77 and .777.) I doubt we look to upgrade on offense by trading Rafaela. Upgrading Wong might help, but Narvaez was better than the average catcher on offense. To me, we need a major power bat and it almost has to be 1B, 3B or 3B. Two significant power bats could do the same thing. 2024 ISO Leaders of available/possibly available players who can play the 3 positions we need: .281 Schwarber DH (1B?) .323 in '25 .256 Suarez 1B/3B (.298 in '25) .251 K Marte 2B (.233 in '25) .235 Alonso 1B (.252 in '25) .224 B Lowe 2B .201 Moncada 2B/3B (.214 in '25) .198 C Walker 1B .196 Willson Contreras 1B (C) .195 Hoskins 1B, .191 Naylor 1B .188 Polanco 2B (.229 in '25) .187 S Murphy C (1B?) Our top ISO's: .214 Abreu (one reason not to trade him: the other is GG in RF) .198 Refsnyder (Need to bring him back) .190 Casas

Don't expect Cora to ask him to move.

You ask why not, then say we need 4-5 players, so you admit we can't just bring back Breg and Gio- we need more. Yes, we can once again hope and pray for better health and upswings from our mostly pre-prime team, but we have a window open wide, and I'd like to see a plan based on more than hopes and prayers. We need to improve on paper. Bringing Bregman & Gio back is fine. At best, we can hope they don't decline, and we'd still be even. Okay, we lost Anthony for over a month, but we lost had Devers for two months and won't next season. Can we expect Chapman, Whitlock and the pen to be as good? One could expect Bello to not be as good, as well as Romy, Story and some others, too. I happen to think out returning players will be better, overall. I'm not pessimistic about 2026, but we need some serious upgrades along with possible (but not likely) stay-evens by returning Bregman & Giolito. Alosno, Breggie & Gio would be okay. Add a solid pitcher in a trade, and I'd be happy bringing B & G back. I am far from being down about our future, but most teams who win, improve on paper during the previous season or two. Our plan needs to be to add a bigger power bat than Bregman. We need to replace Buehler with a solid pitcher. Then, we need to break even on Bregman and Gio, either with them of replacements in kind. Even doing this, we will need a few hopes and prayers, but you can only have so many of those to realistically expect a strong change at a ring.

Go JAYS!

SP Outlook MLB: 26 Crochet (6 yrs) & 26 Bello (5 yrs), 29 Sandoval (1 more year) Crawford (3 arbs) & Houck (IL '26 & return '27) 23 Harrison (pre-arb), 25 (all pre-arbs) Dobbins & Fitts, 28 Criswell (pre arb) MLB Ready Prospects: 23 Early, 22 Tolle, 22 Perales, 26 Uberstine, 26 Drohan Maybe 2027: 22 Clarke, 23 Holobetz Maybe 2028: 21 Witherspoon, 19 Valera & Fajardo, 21 Paez, Phillips & Eyanson plus Aita, Monegro & others 2029> 18 Travieso, 17 Delzine, Cason & others

Probably won't know until he throws a bunch of innings. I'm really pumped up about the future outlook of our pitching pipeline. We seem to have a lot of quality pitchers that are spread out from ML ready, near ML ready, 1-2 years away and 3+ years away.

They won't hand him away, but they may be looking to cut some salary. Sean Murphy would be a nice pair to trade for. He could catch and maybe DH some or learn to play 1B. I'm not sure what they'd want, but it won't be easy or cheap.

Funny one.

I don't do Duran and Early, either. (I'd give any 2 others not named Crochet, Bello, Tolle and early. instead.)

It doesn't matter saying it. It accomplishes nothing. It sounds like offering false hopes- like if JH just reads this, he may spend more, or if more of us say it, it will make a difference. Of course, it matters. JH & Co. could spend more, and so can every other team. Yes, we make more than almost all the other teams, which justifies spending more, but it does nothing to me to hear people say hundreds of times, "but he CAN spend more."

The injury could very well be an "ender." You read stuff like that but also "Casas has progressed on schedule and expects to be ready in Spring Training." (mlb.com) I would not trade him due to both his upside (assuming he might get better) and his current low trade value (due to the fact that every GM knows about this type of injury and the doubts associated with it.) I would not plan on him to be our FT anything, but I still have hopes he can return to .800 and 30+ HRs/650 PAs

Who is doing that? I have zero expectations on his spending. I'm thinking he won't go over the tax line, but he may do it, or get $1M below or $20M below. He used to spend in cycles. He spent a ton, last winter, along with several significant extensions, then dumped Devers and watched Breggie opt out. We are at square one and don't know what square one is. There is no "standard." I keep hearing "He can spend if he wants," but that rings hollow, to me. It's true, but so what? It matters little.

I'm not sure why that is your chosen projection, but certainly it is a significantly possible outlook. I have no idea what to expect. I do still think a healthy Casas can hit over .800 and hit 30+ bombs. Projecting health is near impossible.

Nothing to celebrate. The reality has been that JH is not opening his wallet as wide as others. It does no good to keep saying "He can..."

I don't think anyone gives us real return value for Casas. We'd be selling low on someone with very high potential, but also a very low floor and a DH only profile, when you look at just how awful his 1B defense is. I think we should add a 1Bman and keep Casas as DH competition/back up 1Bman. Just dont count on him as a FT'er. I know, just how many of those sorts of players can you have on the 40? We already have... Yoshida- who we should try to dump. Campbell- the man without a position (another DH?) Mayer- the man who cannot stay off the IL. Hicks- the man that would have been cut if not for his $12M x 2 still owed. Others like DHam or Grissom, Kelly or Guerrero, Wink or Criswell can easily be traded or even DFA'd with not tears shed, but we need to switch from quantity to quality mode, this winter.

You can say that all you want, and it is true, but the reality is, there will be a budget limit, this winter.