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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I do think teams need to "keep defenses honest." By drawing in the infield to protect against a bunt, you increase the odds of a base bit. Never bunting would help opposing teams play back in bunting situations.
  2. moonslav59
    Got that right, and the way the Rays used to have our number, I like beating them too. TOR is in first, so I'd swap TBR w TOR, if I could, but ys on the Yanks!
  3. moonslav59
    I don't think just 1-2 plays can skew Story from a top 3-5 metrics gut to a 0 DRS and +1 OAA.
  4. moonslav59
    It's crazy to think you have to lower the sample size to 60 IP, to get 150 SP'ers in MLB, this year. (30 teams x 5 SP'er = 150.) By fWAR, the Sox have these ranked SP'ers: 3. Crochet 57. Bello (a lower tier #2) 79. Giolito (a mid tier #3) 148. Buehler (lowest tier #5.) If you go by ERA-: 5. Crochet 27. Bello 56. Gio xFIP 3. Crochet 83. Bello 108. Gio Only 100 pitchers have 100+ IP as a SP'er. Crochet is #4 in ERA-, Bello is 19th and Gio is 4oth out of 100. I've always felt like dominating with the rotation is the best way to be a top team in MLB.
  5. moonslav59
    It was no slight on Bello. I'd like Crochet and four #2's, but settled on "needing" one more. We lose Buehler, Houck (IL) and likely Giolito. Adding a 1 or 2 type is just what we need. Think about this: our pen, minus Chapman and Whitlock has a better ERA than our SP'ers with Crochet, Bello and Gio included. We need a solid #2 SP'er to go with Crochet (a #1) and Bello (a #2 or 3, this year.) Is that better?
  6. moonslav59
    If MIN is looking to dump salary, we can add another SP'er with an injury problem to the trade: Pablo Lopez He's owed $21.75M x 2, but the tax hit is jut $18.4M x 2. Taking him in the package should allow MN to pay for Duran and Campbell. (Hell, they could take Yoshida and save $3M a year by including Lopez.) Duran, Campbell, Early & Sandlin for Ryan, Lopez & Clemens.
  7. moonslav59
    I've been saying Castro is overrated for years! 🤣
  8. moonslav59
    Not bad enough to significantly drop his value, IMO.
  9. moonslav59
    He certainly has not restored any value lost in AAA, not has he been identified at a clear position where he can be okay. He does have an .833 OPS with WOO, so it's not horrible.
  10. moonslav59
    Again, I do not think many teams put a whole lot of stick into a rushed prospect's first 2 months production in MLB. Just my opinion. His poor defense and lack of known position may drive his stock lower than his piss poor 6-8 weeks in the bigs.
  11. moonslav59
    No Crawford? I think Harrison is in the picture. (Witherspoon cannot be traded.)
  12. moonslav59
    Yes, the last few weeks have put some distance in definition into the WC slot probabilities.
  13. moonslav59
    There is a risk, but the Twins are not a bottom spender. It's true, if KC struggles, those last few years will be a big burden on them, but Ryan is due to make more than KC over the next 3 years, combined- close to what KC and Abreu make, combined in their years of control. They could also flip Abreu or KC before an injury.
  14. moonslav59
    It's amazing how much the odds drop off from the 6 slot to the 7th in both leagues. So much for keeping more teams in it for longer into the season. There is a sharp cut off after "the haves" top 12 in MLB. While there is only a 3.5 GB gap between the NYM and CIN, the odds differential is massive. Same with BOS/SEA vs KCR. Perhaps the biggest surprises in the MLB standings is ATL, BAL & MIN being passed by ATH, MIA & LAA, but there is still time for them to flip places.
  15. moonslav59
    Gio will likely be a FA, and Buehler is already out. May is a FA. Houck is out until '27 and may be best used in the pen, afterwards. Sandoval, Crawford & Dobbins are question marks for 2026. We have Crochet & Bello. IMO, we could use two more #2's, but I'll settle on one I view as a #1: Joe Ryan. Keller is a bottom level #2, IMO. I'd be okay with adding him, if we keep Gio, too.
  16. moonslav59
    Abreu and Campbell are affordable. The Lux Tax number does not matter, and they can trade both, when their salaries increase. For KC, that might not be until 2030 or 2031. Abreu is pre-arb. KC: 26:$2M, 27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)
  17. moonslav59
    I didn't realize Kody was already 29. His offense has improved in the past couple years, but he's still at a 98 OPS+, this year. I agree: replace Clarke with Mullins (a Rule 5 guy.)
  18. moonslav59
    I just can't see us carrying a platoon DH with very little power for 2 more seasons. We already carry Refsnyder, who plays just 30% of the games, when healthy and is no help at 1B or 2B, where we need depth. Ref may retire. It looks like Romy is ready to fill his slot and CAN play 1B and 2B, so without Ref, maybe Yoshida gets another shot to hit .775 or better- the "new .800."
  19. moonslav59
    Would you trade Duran or Abreu, plus Campbell, Clarke and Sandlin for Ryan and Clemens?
  20. moonslav59
    It wasn't just Ryan. I got overly giddy on Kody Clemens, thinking he was a lock at solving our 2B issue, while Mayer will be one big question mark, until he plays a full season or two.
  21. moonslav59
    There is truth to this, and we still see opposing SSs make awesome plays against us, time and time again. It's also hard to notice slight declines in a player's range. It figure that just when we talk about Story being better than the metrics show, he makes a horrible throw.
  22. moonslav59
    I don't mind negativity. I was in that mode for a few decades, but it would be nice to hear some positive statements from them, from time to time. Mostly, they disappear or post way less after wins and during winning stretches. That's not necessarily a bad thing
  23. moonslav59
    Almost every poster felt our pen was going to be one of our weakest areas and wondered if Chapman would be a decent closer. I was very vocal about my disgust with how Brez neglected the pen. The only hope I saw was that our surplus of SP'ers could help out in the pen. Virtually, none did. Chapman has been great. Wilson did pretty well for 2-3 months. Whitlock took up the Slaten injury slack while carrying his own weight, at the same time. Unsung pitchers like Weissert, Bernardino and a few others have has times of struggle, but overall they have bridge many a starter to Whitlock & CHapman with very little damage done in between. We would not be where we are without them. I know fWAR disagrees, but I think we'd be flirting with .500 with a bad pen. (Sox pen fWAR is 5.4 and T2nd in MLB.)
  24. moonslav59
    His road OBP w COL was .310. It's .307, this year and .301, overall w the Sox.
  25. moonslav59
    It's always hard projecting minor league pitchers into MLB stars, but it's been a long time coming for the Sox farm to have a guy this highly regarded. Sox fans tend to shy away from anointing any farm arm great before they make it to the bigs, but Tolle does look like the REAL Deal. I also think our next tier of 3-4- maybe 5- pitchers is very promising: Valera, Perales, Witherspoon, Early/Clarke.
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