moonslav59

People kept saying Papi needed to "shed a few pounds". I'm not worried.

According to Soxprospects.com, Devers took a big step forward on defense last year. If he doesn't work out at 3B, he should be fine at 1B, but then that squeezes Travis. ...he showed fine defensive instincts and ability for his age in my short look at him this year. Physical Description: Well built with a large lower half. Physically mature for someone his age. Room to fill out in his upper body. Not a great athlete. Will need to watch his conditioning as he matures. Field: Doesn’t look pretty, but can make the plays at third base. Limited range and on the stiff and rigid side when fielding ground balls. Will be given every chance to stick at third, but could move across the diamond to first base eventually.

Could this be our 2020 line-up? 1) Beni LF 2) Bogey SS (re-signed) 3) Betts RF 4) JBJ CF 5) Pedey 2B 6) Devers 3B 7) Dalbec DH 8) Travis 1B 9) Vaz-Swi C SP1 Sale (extended) SP2 Price SP3 ERod SP4 Groome SP5 Wright RP1 ??? RP2 Smith RP3 Barnes RP4 Hembree RP5 Johnson/Owens RP6 Worman RP7 Scott/ Martin/ TBall/ Ysla/ Velazquez

Chances are all three from Devers, Travis and Groome will not all be plus players or good enough to lessen the loss of Sale or Porcello or HanRam's bat. If just two come through, maybe Dalbec can take up the slack for the one of three that may not come through.

New scouting report on Dalbec from soxprospects.com... http://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

MLBTR Chat... 4:40 Any possible way Sandy Leon has another good year? BABIP was so unsustainable. Maybe Sox could make a run at Norris? Jason Martinez: 4:42 He won't be as good as he was in his less-than-300-plate-appearance stint from '16. But I think he can still be an above average hitter for a catcher. Paired with Vazquez, I think the Sox are in good shape behind the plate. No need to look for help anytime soon.

MLBTR Red Sox southpaw David Price is fully assured a spot on the staff. But he will need to make a slight adaptation to his pitching approach. As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney explains, the league has asked Price (and others with a similar delivery) to make clear to umps whether they are working from the stretch or the windup when there’s a runner on third.

They can keep 3, because Swihart has an option left. He also needs to improve his defense, so it works out just right. Hopefully, we'll know more about all three catchers after this year and can make a more informed choice, when the time comes.

Getting away from catching for a moment, one name I haven't seen here is Steve Selsky. The Sox picked him up off the waiver wire in January and he's been looking good this spring - good to the point where Farrell said that Selsky is the most surprising player he's seen this year. I wouldn't expect him to be on the 25 man roster but his being on the 40 wouldn't surprise me at all... He's on the 40 man roster already. competing with Castillo for the first call-up spot. (BTW, Castillo made a couple of nice catches in the OF yesterday and had a double down the LF line. The double was interesting because he fouled of 4-5 pitches, swinging late on all of them but then pulled a 91 MPH FB down the LF line. But he also looked pretty pathetic in his other plate appearance). Castillo is going to have to go nutty to be added to the 40 man roster and put us over the luxury tax (unless just added for a few weeks). Question about Rutledge: I know we got him off the Rule 5 Draft last year. Does he have to remain with the club forever to avoid being sent back to where he came from, or is he now a "regular" player now that he's in his second year here? He has to stay on the 25 man roster for the whole year or be sent back. A trade could be worked out to avoid a send back.

MLB 2016 OPS by positions Swihart might be able to play: .810 DH .781 1B .773 3B .738 LF .702 C

I respect your opinion and input, harmony, and using WAR and projected WAR in a consistent and unbiased manner has its pluses, but you seem to close the door on anything that doesn't conform to your rigid guidelines. ZIPS and Steamer are often wrong, just like we are. Trying to project what Swihart will become (or any young player) is near impossible. I've been accused of being a stat geek and numbers-only guy (not true), but even I know all numbers and data have context. Nobody is going to argue that Swihart has great numbers over the last 2 years, but there's more to projections and expectations than just what a player has done lately or what these services project. It might help if you acknowledge that sometimes. Sometimes scouts and baseball observers go against the numbers and are right. Sometimes they are wrong, too.

I think DD thinks Swihart might someday become our number one catcher. With Vaz and Leon still question marks, I think keeping all 3 options alive makes a lot of sense.

How many bunt hits against a shift would it take for teams to give up on the shift? 8 out of 20 ABs? 16 out of 40?

Broken record.

Swihart is a near lock to start at AAA as our catcher this year. If he plays any other position this year, it might be 3B, but LF could still be an option if 2 OF'er get hurt. We're not "throwing away" a good hitter by having him develop defensive skills that will allow him to be an overall plus when playing. Right now, he's not better than Young and Holt in LF. The only reason he player there last year was because both were hurt and Beni was not deemed ML ready.

Scouts raved about this kid 2 years ago. He did well in 2015 after having to skip a level. He had a bad 6 game sample size to start 2016, and later got hurt after being forced to switch positions. I'm not sure why you see it as "bearish" for projections to not adhere strictly his last 2 year WAR and OPS numbers.

20 Locks: C: Vaz & Leon (Swihart with as a long shot for opening day roster) 1B: Moreland & HanRam (DH) 2B: Pedroia & Holt 3B: Pablo SS: Bogey LF: Beni & Young (DH) CF: JBJ RF: Betts SP: Sale, Porcello, Price SP/RP: Wright or Pom RP: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Ross 2 Near Lock: (Bold= options remaining) 3B: Rutledge (with Hernandez as a long shot) RP: Kelly 6 on Bubble for 3 slots: SP: ERod RP: Hembree, Abad, Barnes, Scott, Workman Scott and Workman are long shots for the opening day Roster. Carson Smith will start on the DL. That leaves 3 slots for ERod, Hembree, Abad and Barnes with Hembree and Abad out of options. The choice most likely comes down to ERod vs Barnes, and since we don't need our 5th starter until the 9th game, my guess is, assuming everyone but Smith is healthy, ERod will be the odd man out. When the 5th starter is needed, we may decide to use Pom or Wright and keep ERod at AAA, or we can call up ERod to start and send Barnes down, again, assuming nobody goes on the DL. Barnes & ERod will get plenty of chances to pitch on the big club.

The projected on-base percentage is surprising in light of Swihart's .328 career mark buoyed by a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357. Again, the kid basically was forced to skip a level and was thrown into the bigs early. He did remarkably well considering that context- something you seem to not feel causes doubt on projections based solely on past numbers. Swihart had a .340 OBP in the minors. I don't think a projection of .347 is out of line. Would I bet on over .330? Probably not, but I think I would bet on the over on SLG (.397+).

Hembree is out of options. He's a keeper.

I'm not saying decisions should be based on 2016 numbers, but here some are... WHIP with Sox: 1.27 Ross (1.28 2015-2016) 1.33 Hembree (1.34) 1.33 Scott (1.33) 1.40 Barnes (1.47) 1.66 Abad (1.34 MN & BOS) 1.70 Kelly (1.70) K/BB 2.77 Hembree 2.50 Scott 2.43 Ross 2.29 Barnes 2.00 Kelly 1.69 Abad Not too impressive, and all the more reason to hang onto as many as possible.

Chris Smith article... Peter Gammons reported in December several teams expressed interested in trading for 24-year-old catcher Blake Swihart during the Winter Meetings but Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski "refused to talk about him." It seems former Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a special assistant in Boston's front office, might have helped convince Dombrowski that Swihart is a keeper. In the past few days, Dombrowski has mentioned twice how high Varitek is on Swihart's ability. Dombrowski said on Buster Olney's podcast, "In Blake Swihart's case, he's a real good offensive player. He has the ability to be a good receiver behind the plate. Jason Varitek -- who knows much more about catching than I do -- tells me he's going to be an outstanding big league catcher still. In his mind, he just continues to develop." Dombrowski then appeared on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio on Monday and said, "We project Blake Swihart as being a type of guy that can be an All-Star catcher, also. He's a switch hitter. He's a very good offensive player. He has the defensive capabilities. Still needs some work back there. But as Jason Varitek says for us -- and he knows a lot more about catching than I do -- he says he still thinks that he's going to be a real, fine defensive catcher. He has arm strength back there and has the potential to be an All-Star." The Red Sox told Swihart to forget about the left field experiment and focus primarily on catcher heading into spring training 2017. After undergoing season-ending surgery on his left ankle in August, Swihart is expected to be at full health during spring training camp. Is he a realistic candidate to win the starting job though? As mentioned here on MassLive.com yesterday, it seems more plausible Swihart will start 2017 at Triple-A Pawtucket because he has minor league options remaining while both Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez do not. Players who are out of minor league options who don't make the 25-man roster (barring injuries) are designated for assignment. It would be wise for the Red Sox to make depth a priority and keep all three catchers in the organization. But Dombrowski will give Swihart a chance to make the club's Opening Day roster. "Basically we're open-minded to say, 'Let the best person win the job and let's see what combination ends up making us the best club Opening Day,'" Dombrowski said on SiriusXM's Fantasy Sports Radio. There's a good chance we could see a different No. 1 catcher come July than at the start of the 2017 season. Leon and Vazquez most likely will make the team out of spring training. Depth is most important when discussing the catcher position for any organization. But Swihart very likely could take over as the starting catcher within a couple months if Leon and Vazquez aren't providing enough offense. Leon's production for Boston in 2016 (.310/.369/.476/.845, 7 homers, 17 doubles, two triples and 35 RBIs, 78 games) perhaps was an aberration and not his new norm. He was just a .238 in 612 minor league games. Vazquez has the ability to be an elite receiver, blocker and thrower. But will he hit enough? The Red Sox might need to go with the best offensive catcher at some point. After all, they might be unable to afford little offensive production from the catcher position with a batting order that doesn't include David Ortiz in 2017.

Couldn't find anything too recent, but here's what soxprospects.com has and it has been recently updated... Physical Description: Athletic build, lean muscle, solid core. Has filed out considerably since signing, especially in his lower half, but still has some room for added bulk without losing athleticism. Hit: Switch hitter with fluid, line-drive stroke from both sides. Plus bat speed and bat control through the zone with loud, consistent contact. Uses whole field. Solid pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, and understanding of the strike zone. Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. Battles. Doesn’t use batting gloves. Power: Strong for his size. More to come as he physically matures. More present power from the right side. Squares balls up with consistency. Doesn’t sell out for power. However, plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs). Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage. Field: Consistent sub 2.0 pop times, typically between 1.8-1.9. Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism. Began getting reps in left field after being optioned back to Pawtucket in April 2016. Run: Average runner, but above-average for catcher. Can go first to third and score from second. Alert on the basepaths with good instincts. Career Notes: Committed to the University of Texas prior to signing. Primarily played shortstop and outfield in high school. Played for Team USA 18-and-Under National Team in 2010. Also played basketball in high school. Summation: Future first-division regular and solid contributor across the board. Potential above-average hit tool and average power potential at a premium defensive position. Athleticism behind the plate immediately stands out. Natural instincts. Confident actions. Elite makeup and strong work ethic. Arguably the best catching prospect in the game right now.

I never said the sample sizes were large enough, but I responding to the point made that his hot streak was vs weak pitching. The numbers how that his he has faced some tough pitchers and done alright- tiny sample sizes or not. I'm not saying we can base anything on his career MLB sample size, and that's why I researched to show the point made was not an accurate reflection of his sample size as a whole.

No doubt! An .850 hitting catcher would blow away most of our opponents' catcher's OPS. That's a huge plus. Swihart hitting .850 wouldn't have to become a better than average defender to have plus overall value. It would be great, if he could, and that's why it is worth giving him a good long look at catcher this year. I'm just saying that team needs sometimes trump prospects' growth plans.

Most hitter can credit their OPS on doing very well for a small stretch and/or a stretch vs bad pitching. Besides, Swi's best hitting came vs tougher teams in 2015: 1.571 KCR 1.250 PHI 1.227 NYM 1.032 SEA .929 CLE .882 DET .828 NYY Worst OPS: .250 MIA .393 ATL .399 TOR .479 TBR .500 OAK Career OPS vs all pitchers with 5 or more PAs against: 2.000 A Simon 1.400 Felix Hernandez 1.167 M Stroman 1.000 M Pineda 1.000 U Jimenez .929 Tanaka .900 C Sale .833 A Colome ,667 M Estras & Y Gallardo .650 R Osuna .600 M Wright .293 R A Dickey .200 D Smyly, M Moore .000 Aa Sanchez, K Gausman I don't see a trend of hitting well vs only weak hitters. In fact, I see quite the opposite.