moonslav59

Yeah, but they only pitch 50-65 innings a year. I realize it takes a different routine and mentality to be a closer, so I'm not saying I felt confident it would work out very well, but I felt maybe a chance of pace might help keep them healthier. Both Buch and Kelly have shown the nasty stuff a closer needs to be great, so to me, it was all about their mindset and ability to stay healthy.

It seems like there used to be 3-5 teams each year in a long term rebuild mode. With parity the way it is now, teams can go from last to championship and back to last again in a 3 year period (Care to guess what team that was?), it's just not the case anymore. I just don't know, if even a team like the Phillies would trade a more known quality young pitcher for a pitcher way off in the horizon. Of course adding Swihart makes that deal a no brainer for Philly, but it's too much for us to give up for Nola. I confess, I'm no expert on Nola's potential, so I'd have to learn more about him, before suggesting that deal.

I'm surprised Brentz is still on the 40-man roster.

While I agree, our system has not been even decent at producing top quality pitchers- even the ones rated highly by national services. There's a part of me that has begun to just not listen to any hype about our pitching prospects, I realize we haven't had a prospect ranked as highly as Espinoza in quite some time, but he's so damn young and far from a MLB mound. I'm not saying I want to trade him, but I do wonder... Here's a list of our highest ranked pitching prospects on soxprospects.com: 2016: 3 Espinoza 2015: 1 ERod (not from our system), 3 Owens, 5 Johnson 2014: 2 Owens, 4 Webster (not from our system), 5 Ranaudo 2013: 3 Barnes, 4 Owens, 5 de la Rosa 2012: 2 Barnes, 2 Ranaudo 2011: 2 Ranaudo, 3 Doubront, 5 Pimental 2009: 1 Kelly, 2 Bowden, 5 Tazawa 2008: 1 Masterson, 2 Bowden, 5 Kelly Then, there's recent higher draft picks Kopech 33, T Ball 7, Stanki 45, Johnson 31, Light 37, Barnes 19, Owens 36, Ranaudo 39, Kelly 30, Price 45, Hagadone 55, Bard 28, K Johnson 39, C Clay 43, C Hansen 26, Buchholz 42, Bowden 47 and Abe Alvarez. I'm not trying to put Espinoza down. I think he's a gem, but part of me is saying "yeah right".

Last winter, before the Kimbrel trade, I suggested making Kelly or even Buch our closer. Wonder how that might have worked out.

I totally agree, and that's why I think he deserves this chance.

Nice preliminary list. My questions might be... 1) Who can we realistically get for Swihart, Devers and any three from Holt, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Kopech, Lakins, Hernandez, Chavis, Basabe, Dubon, Light...? 2) Who could we get by adding Travis to the list? 3) Who could we get by adding Espinoza or Groome to the list?

Let's not put stats totally aside for now. Let's look at Christian's perceived greatest weakness: hitting. I'm not in any way trying to glorify his .547 OPS of 2016 or his career .587 OPS, but some context needs to be added. The state of catcher offense in MLB is very low right now. There are currently three teams with a catcher OPS below .547 and 5 teams with an OPS below Christian's career OPS. It's almost 5 as the Dodgers catcher OPS is .590. There are 12 teams with a catcher OPS below .630. That's over a third of all ML teams! Almost two thirds (19/30) of all MLB teams have a catcher OPS of .691 or lower! I don't see it as a glaring weakness to have a catcher with an OPS just below .600, but I also don't expect Vazquez to be there for too much longer.

What were his pitch-framing numbers in 2014?

Nomar was never a great defensive SS. He was all flash with his running, jumping, twisting throws from the hole. IMO, after the first 2-3 years, he became a minus fielder. I was never high on Bogey's defensive projections, but he has surprised me with his continued improvement at SS. I think he's already better defensively at SS than Nomar ever was, but that's an arguable point. It's two early to judge Bogey vs Nomar, but I'd put my money on Bogey to end up with a better overall record (not just offense) than Nomar.

Yes, less hard contact should translate to less BA against. Knuckleballers are notorious for allowing more HRs and long fly balls than others, so Wright seems to be doing something differently.

Let's win tomorrow and own the best record in the AL.

I might give Swihart and Espinoza for Salazar or Quintana- the two guys I most suggested we trade for last winter, but their stock has risen since then, and I doubt those two teams will be sellers this July. Name some realistic names who might be available this summer. I agree we have to keep Moncada. I also think Moncada will end up blocking Devers, so if a team is looking to the long picture, maybe Espinoza and Devers might be a trading pair (perhaps with Swihart as well). I can't believe I'm open to trading Espi, but if it's for a young, cost-controlled top of rotation pitcher, then I'll listen.

I thought this past winter was our best opportunity to add two top SP'ers. It was one of the two main reasons I was firmly against the Kimbrel trade. I felt we should have added to the package that landed Kimbrel and gotten another 1 or 2 type SP'er. My actual suggested trade offers often included Margot and Guerra plus Swihart and/or Devers, and if needed, we could have added Holt, Kelly, Owens, Johnson or Kopech. That was before some of these guys' stock fell. The other major reason was that Kimbrel is being paid near FA money, so I couldn't see why we gave up so much to essentially sign a FA closer who might pitch 60 innings a year. I don't want to bring up the whole Kimbrel argument again. Thge horse has been beaten to death. We got an ace and a top closer. Both have helped us to get where we are today. I have always been of a mind to want to build our rotation from the top. We won our first ring, when we added Schilling. We won our second ring when we added Beckett. We won our third ring when we had 3 pitchers performing as good as a number 1 or 2. I guess one could argue we have two now, as Price seems to be "in form", but I am pretty certain a Price-Wright one to punch will be enough. Maybe ERod can be our next Lackey, but I'd rather try and play it safe by adding another top of rotation pitcher. The reason I say try is because the price will likely be way too high. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers and just about everyone else but Moncada, Beninyendi or Espinoza, but I doubt we get a pitcher under team control for several years at below FA market price without giving up a top 3 prospect as well. I may be wrong, but I think we could have gotten a pitcher described above last winter by offering (remember their value then) Swihart, Devers, Margot, Guerra, Holt, and 1 or 2 from Owens/Johnson/Kopech or the other two guys we traded to SD. If we had to take on a second player as part of the deal- maybe a semi salary dump like Mike Lowell was, then so be it. We ended up paying a lot for Kimbrel anyway. I guess, I'd have to see who is available before I offer a top 3 prospect as part of a big package deal.

Before tonight's game, the Sox and O's had an identical ERA- (96). Our starters are better than theirs, according to ERA- (103 to 111). Their pen is better by 11 (70 to 81).

There's a long wait on Devers. Moncada may be ready next season, so we should know much more about Shaw before that happens. I totally agree on Swihart's higher value as a catcher, so that's why I have suggested he be the key to any big trade we make. His value is higher to another team than to us.

How can I be way off base on Shaw, when I haven't taken a position other than we need more time to know how good (or mediocre) he really is. His AAA and AA numbers were unimpressive. He had a nice run last year and a nice 3-4 weeks to start this year. That size sample size should convince no one of anything- good or bad. JBJ had a longer sample size of ineptness than Shaw has had of good production, and we saw what happened there. I do like Shaw's swing, but to me, the jury is still out. Here's a look at Shaw's OPS over the past few half seasons: .789 1st 2016 MLB (dropping fast) .813 2nd 2015 MLB .674 1st 2015 AAA .752 2nd 2014 AAA .954 1st 2014 AA .721 2nd 2013 AA .744 1st 2013 AA All I'm doing is preaching caution based on his recent career. I know 506 MLB PAs might seem like a lot, but to me it's not. It's certainly encouraging, and it's getting large enough to begin to be definitive, but not quite, IMO. MLB 506 PA .269/.330/.471/.801 AAA 668 PA .256/.319/.395/.715 AA 870 PA .242/.359/.436/.795 The fact that his OPS at AAA and AA are below his MLB OPS should make anyone take a little more time before proclaiming him "for real". I would not be surprised, if he ends up with a career MLB OPS or around .740-.760 which is about his AAA/AA number.

It certainly looks like there is no chance any of these guys can come through as a solid 5 starter. We need ERod to jump right in and be solid or else we'll need to fill 2 slots. Elias does deserve a shot, but Johnson may never get a look with us. I hate writing anyone off 100%, but I totally agree that we can't count on anyone in our system to adequately fill the 5 slot. Imagine where we'd be without Wright shining brightly. I've been saying for years that we need to rebuild our staff from the top or near top. Price was just one stroke. Porcello was a good attempt, but right now looking at him as anything more than a good 3rd starter is wishful thinking. Wright has been solid. Price is looking better. ERod is our big hope right now. Elias- a long shot. I hope we try to get a very good starter, but I hate the 2 month rental deals, especially if it ends up costing us a top 6 or 7 prospect.

According to fangraphs, we have the #1 offense #7 defense (4th in UZR/150 and 1st with Inside Edge Fielding) #17 pitching staff However, we are ranked 21st in starting pitching. Our 16.8 WAR with our non-pitchers is 6 points ahead of the next AL team (CLE) at 10.8. Here's how we rank in the AL position by position by WAR: C-- 8th 1B- 6th 2B- 5th 3B- 7th SS- 2nd LF- 6th CF- 3rd RF- 1st DH- 1st

It's extremely difficult to measure catcher defense. Then, i's even harder to compare catchers from around the league, because everyone catches a different staff. As you can see from above, even catchers on the same team catch vastly different percentages of each pitcher on the staff. Then, there's park factors, strength of opponent's offenses, and the time factor allowing a catcher to get in sinc with each particular catcher on his staff. There are better measurements than before, such as pitch-framing ability, and I'm not sure how Vaz rates there in terms of other MLB catchers, but I seem to recall reading he was excellent in that area. Over his career, he's been great at CS rates, although I think that stat is over-rated due to it being just about the only catcher defensive stat measurable for years and years. One can look at a lot of different things. One is comparing our ERA- to recent Sox seasons. If you go back to 2003, when new management arrived, the top 3 ERA- seasons were, not surprisingly, our 3 championship seasons. Anyone who tells you pitching is not extremely important need only look no farther than this stat: 2007 83 2013 87 2007 88 2008 89 2009 91 2016 94 2010 96 2011 97 2014 98 2003 99 2006 100 2015 103 2005 105 2012 111 Not surprisingly, our worst 3 records since 2003 were in 2012, 2014 and 2015-- 3 of the worst 6 ERA- seasons. We had some pretty good names on our staff in the seasons below 2016 on the ERA- chart above. Once VTek retired, we had difficulty getting the best out of our staff. Fangraphs has us rated 3rd on one page and 18th on another in team catcher defense. We are listed 3rd best on Inside Edge Defense, but I'm not sure how good that system is as they have Salty rated 20th just behind Hanigan and Leon and Vazquez 46th and Swihart 57th out of 79 catchers. Out of the 25 catchers with 300+ innings, Vaz ranks 13th. My gut and eyes say Vaz is already a top 10 defensive catcher and may become top 3 within a year or two.

Then maybe word your statements like "Almost nobody can win with a hitter below .200, instead of saying "No team can win..." On the staff ERA, with Smith out and the Sox about to use their 9th SP'er by mid June, I'd say Vazquez and other catchers on the Sox have done an amazing job to help place the Sox 10th in ERA- at 94. We're 6th in the AL, but only 1 behind being 4th and 2 behind being tied for 3rd best in the AL. Id' say that's miraculous. Our staff also places ... 8th in WHIP at 1.26 10th in K-BB% at 14.3% 12th in xFIP- at 98 13th in SIERA at 3.94 Besides, I said "CERA related" to indicate there's more to measuring how getting the most out of the pitchers you catch that their ERA. CERA is an extremely limited use stat, and is more often than not used incorrectly. Here's a look at the tiny sample sizes of 2016 so far, in terms of OPS against by our pitchers with various catchers: OPS against/PA (under 50 PAs not listed= N/A, except for Swihart) .......Vaz----- Han---- Swi Price:.694/331---- N/A-- .646/48 Wright: N/A---- .561/264--.625/27 Porc: .673/314--- N/A -- .835/27 Buch: .775/206-- N/A -- 1.005/45 Kelly: N/A ---- .924/92 Barn: .459/56-- .796/60 Owen: N/A --- 1.049/59 O'Sull: N/A --- .901/50 Ueha: .869/53-- N/A --- Hemb: .402/51-- N/A --- As you can see, with so many Sox starters having personal caddies, it's hard to use CERA to judge Sox catchers vs each other, which is the only way CERA should be used when possible.

I agree, but I'm okay with a LF comprised of Young, Shaw, Holt, and Castillo as long as the rest of the line-up is doing well. I just can't get passed the void we have at SP'er. We could add Trout in LF, and I still think we'd struggle to win it all without a significant upgrade at SP'er. I realize the playoffs allow teams to get by without a good 5th starter, but beyond Price, Wright and Porcello it's a joke.

Let's look at how the Sox line-up balance compares to other top AL teams: Slot BOS -TEX- BAL- CLE- SEA- TOR- KCR ..1) .849 .752 .704 .715 .673 .762 .618 (Sox are #1) ..2) .873 .843 .915 .756 .775 .879 .774 (#3) ..3) .917 .687 .774 .820 .903 .901 .820 (#1) ..4)1.036 .750 .846 .751 .904 .848 .714 (#1) ..5) .701 .845 .824 .763 .677 .683 .656 (#4) ..6) .836 .690 .802 .621 .900 .819 .713 (#2) ..7) .867 .677 .768 .660 .651 .505 .749 (#1) ..8) .644 .866 .723 .833 .813 .570 .695 (#7) ..9) .777 .632 .644 .647 .628 .697 .760 (#1) Hands down the most balanced team in the AL. Our #5 and 8 slots are our only weak slots, but with JBJ maybe eventually b atting 5th or HanRam heating up the #5 slot could improve. Our #8 slot should also improve as our catchers are now batting 9th not 8th. That may make our #9 slot fall from the #1 ranking, but it is clear we are very balanced top to bottom. Notes: 1) Look at Toronto's bottom 3. 2) Look at BAL, SEA and CLE's #1 slot. 3) Texas has had a weak 3 slot. 4) KCR has 4 of the top 6 slots under .715.

I think Vazquez's bat will come around, but I do not think it needs to for us to be strong title contenders. We need a solid, dependable SP'er and maybe a good pen arm, if Kelly doesn't work out well there.

Yes, I agree, but why are you saying we might try to acquire an OF'er? To me, OF, SS and C are our least need areas.