moonslav59

Remember that Vaz did not catch our rotation last year due to injury, so the "performance of the staff" this year may not be something easily judged. This is largely a new staff compared to 2014.

The yanks are playing pretty well recently...while in rebuild mode.

RHP Brandon McCarthy goes tonight. He's struggled his last two starts, so maybe tonight is the game Beni busts out.

Newly acquired: D Price: team is 12-13 in his starts 9-7 4.30 ERA/ 1.25 WHIP (both higher than normal) C Kimbrell was on the DL for a few weeks 2-3 3.31 ERA/ 1.05 WHIP (both higher than normal) D Pomeranz was a top 20 NL starter this year 0-2 6.20 ERA/ 1.67 WHIP (both way higher thaan norm in tiny sample size) B Ziegler was a rental pick-up 0-2 0.96 ERS/ 0.86 WHIP (both higher, but 2 losses in 10 games) A Abad had a rotten first game. 0-1 6.75/ 2.24 WHIP (just 2 games sample size) C Young has been on the DL for many weeks (48 Gms/142 PAs) .277 6 15 (.338/.508/.846) A Hill has played in 17 gms with 61 PAs .218 1 4 (.295/.367/.586) M Martinez, R LaMarre & M Miller were 1 for 13 with 2 BBs. I hate it when posters make definitive judgments based on small sample sizes, and that's not what I'm doing here, but so far, the numbers look pretty bleak. Only Young has done as well or better than expected, but hes' been hurt too much. Ziegler has done okay. Price has looked better recently, and we will need him to pitch like an ace, if we want to make the playoffs and go deep in them. I'm not sure what's up with Pomeranz. The 12 BB in 20 IP are frightening. He may just have needed some time to adjust, but that time is over. Getting Kimbrell back should give us a big boost. I'm hoping for the best with all these newbies as well as others. Going back to last year's acquisitions, only de Aza's mid season pick-up did better than expected: 2015-2016 combined numbers w Sox (only) .292/.347/.484/.831 de Aza (178 PAs) .262/.321/.436/.756 Ramirez (854) .207/.307/.386/.693 Napoli (378) .242/.290/.361/.651 Sandoval (512) (others acquired before '15: Castillo .647, Vic .622, Hanigan .586, Craig .441) Miley 11-11 4.46 (193 IP) Ogando 3-1 3.99 (65) Masterson 4-2 5.61 (59) (Miley was perhaps our most consistent wire-to-wire SP'er last year.)

Maybe Vaz is the back-up catcher next year. He may become one pitcher's caddy or play vs some LHPs, although the switch-hitting Leon seems to hit lefties much better as well. The Sox rarely go lefty-righty with their catchers. They usually prefer the personal caddy approach, but if they do, perhaps Swihart matches up better on a L-R platoon with Leon. It's pretty amazing how quickly the future Sox catcher narrative has gone from Vazquez vs Swihart to Leon vs the myth of Leon.

Layne lost his ability to totally dominate LHBs. It's too bad. Best of luck elsewhere.

Anybody know why we gave Pedey a day off yesterday, when we have Monday off?

Agreed. I had suggested trading away some "quantity" of our mediocre pitchers/prospects along with everyday player/ prospects to acquire a more reliable SP'er. I realize the theory is easier than reality.

If you go by long term or seasonal numbers, and you want your best overall hitter (OBP abd SLG) to bat third, it wouldn't be Betts. It would be Ortiz. Based on this year, last year or a 3 or 5 year average, it would always be Papi. 2016: OBP SLG Player 395 617 Ortiz 350 546 Betts 370 524 JBJ 374 468 Bogey 370 444 Pedey 351 445 Ramirez 327 467 Shaw 2015-2016 Combined OBP SLG 374 579 Ortiz 357 514 JBJ 345 508 Betts 363 442 Pedey 363 441 Bogey 327 474 Shaw 321 436 Ram 342 381 Holt One could even argue JBJ should bat 3rd (or 4th with Papi 3rd). If you want to put extra emphasis on OBP for your 1 & 2 hitters, then yes, Betts does not belong 1 or 2 based on OBP in 2016 or 2015-2016 combined, but since we will never bat Papi 1st or 2nd, and since JBJ's SLG is too high to bat 1 or 2 as well, we basically have 3 guys well suited to bat 3rd but not 1 or 2. Bogey and Pedey both have nice OBPs, so I can see the argument for batting them 1-2. I'd be okay with this, as I have said before, but then we have our best 3 overall hitters batting 3-4-5 and losing valuable PAs, especially the guy batting 5th (JBJ). To me, the biggest issue with out line-up all year was keeping JBJ down in the line-up and keeping HanRam batting 5tf for so long. The guy is last in XBHs out of our top 8 hitters. 62 Ortiz 59 Betts 49 JBJ 43 Shaw 39 Bogey 37 Pedey 35 Ramirez If you include 2015, HanRam looks even worse, especially vs RHPs. My own theories on line-up construction often goes against some traditional norms. I'm not so big on the lefty-righty-lefty theory. I'm not afraid to jumble the line-ups based on splits, but I do respect players' wishes to remain somewhat constant in their slot. 2015-2016 Splits vs RHPs OBP SLG 403 643 Ortiz 350 539 JBJ 347 510 Betts 364 453 Pedey 341 463 Shaw 348 434 Bogey 323 404 Swihart 333 388 Holt 312 408 Ramirez 255 284 Vazquez vs LHPs 404 638 Young 411 464 Bogey 345 512 Ramirez 337 504 Betts 373 456 JBJ 293 503 Shaw 361 406 Pedey 300 428 Ortiz 371 356 Holt Going just by the over all numbers and splits, in theory only, Papi should be dropped down vs LHPs (or even rested vs tough ones), JBJ drops his power vs LHPs but not his OBP, and Bogey should be dropped vs RHPs. HanRam should also be dropped vs righties. Maybe something like this based only on almost only numbers (NOT my choice).... Vs RHPs: 1) Bogey (despite his .348 OBP) 2) Pedey 3) Ortiz 4) JBJ 5) Betts 6) Shaw 7) Leon/Swihart 8) Holt 9) Ramirez vs LHPs 1) Bogey 2) JBJ 3) Betts 4) Ramirez 5) Young 6) Pedey 7) Ortiz 8) Shaw 9) Leon/Vaz Now, obviously Papi is not going to bat 7th, but placing him 3rd vs RHPs and 5th vs LHPs is not a bad idea. JBJ's numbers are odd. He looks to be a great 3-4 hitter vs RHPs and a great 1-2 hitter vs LHPs. I'm not sure if that is his true MO. I might go with something like this... ....vs RHPs....vs LHPs 1) Bogey 2) Pedey JBJ 3) Betts 4) Ortiz Ram 5) JBJ Ortiz 6) Shaw Pedey 7) Ram Young 8) Leon Shaw 9) Beni Leon

The offense has been struggling lately. In 8 of the last 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less. So it may be time to make a change. This happens just about every west coast trip we make. Maybe we are reading too much into this "slump".

I'm sad and disappointed by the performances and injuries to juat about every player we acquired since DD took over. I'm not making a definitive judgement over a small sample size. I'm just making an observation on what has happened so far. After watching FA signing bust after bust with Theo and Ben and most trades backfire, I was hoping at least someone would come out of the gate doing well. It hasn't happened SO FAR. It is sad. It is disappointing.

Team record in GS'd by... 16-6 Porcello 14-8 Wright 11-12 Price 41-26 Total from top 3 SP'ers 19-23 others. ERA as starters: 15.75 Elias (1 GS) 8.46 Kelly (6) 6.64 O'Sullivan (4) 6.31 Buch (13) 6.20 Pomeranz (4) 5.93 ERod (11) 5.11 Owens (3) OPS against .615 Wright (in 610 PAs) .680 Porcello (581) .730 Price (630) .863 O'Sullivan (93) .867 Buchholz (313) .869 ERod (256) .870 Pomeranz (92) 1.001 Kelly (119) 1.049 Owens (59) 1.254 Elias (21) Isn't it clear what our biggest weakness is. Do we even need these stats to know it?

To me, our biggest weakness has been our 7.00+ ERA from our 5th starter. Had we gotten another solid #1 or #2, I think we have a few more wins. As it is right now, we're a half game out of the last WC slot. It's hard to watch these 9-0 wins followed by 3-0 losses, but consistency is something teams relying on scoring to win is almost always hard to master. When you have a great pitching staff, you are "in more games", and in theory, have more chances to win. In games where teams score 5 or more runs, you should win the vast majority of them. We are 50-13 (63 games!). When scoring 4 runs, we are 6-5, so in total we are 56-18 in games scoring 4 or more runs (74 total games). We've only had 35 games scoring 3 or less and only 14 scoring 1 or less. 68% scoring 4 or more runs (.758 winning %) 58% scoring 5 or more (.793). Let's look at the other contenders in the AL: Toronto 62% scoring 4 or more runs (.783). 46% scoring 5 or more (.808). They are 12-5 in games scoring 4 runs. We are 6-5. We score 4 or more runs and 5 or more runs more than Toronto, but we lose a higher percentage of those games. We "consistently" score more than enough to usually win, but we don't. That can only mean it's the fault of runs allowed. Baltimore 59% with 4 or more runs scored (.769) 50-15 45% with 5 or more runs scored (.796) 39-10 Again, we score 4 or more runs and 5 or more runs way more "consistently" than the O's and we win about the same percent as they do(actually slightly less), since they have weak pitching as well. It's not our hitting: it's our pitching. Texas 63% with 4 or more runs (.714). 52% with 5 or more runs (.741). Texas is 7-5 in 4 run games and 7-9 in 5 run games. They have a weird way of winning. They are 14-14 in games where they score 4-5 runs, but are 13-9 in games they score 2-3 runs!!! Go figure! Anyways, we score 4 and 5 or more runs more than Texas as well, so our offense is more consistent than theirs. Guardians 67% scoring 4 or more runs (.774) 57% scoring 5 or more runs (.817) They are pretty close to us in scoring consistency, but they win the games by a better percentage than we do in 5 or more runs scored games. Look, I know we play in a hitter's park, so the numbers are skewed by that somewhat. I know there is some evidence that shows we don't spread our runs around as evenly as other teams (see below), but we ought to win more games when we score 4 or 5 or more runs. 0-1 runs scored/total games played: 10/111 Jays 13/109 Orioles 14/109 Red Sox 14/106 Guardians 17/110 Tigers 19/111 Rangers

That's why I said "so far". Isn't it a little sad to you than no other deal has looked good right out of the gate?

Wild Card Standings BAL/TOR +1.5 Detroit - ___________ Boston -0.5 Houston -4.0 Seattle -4.5 NY Yanks -6.0

I'm not against the idea of batting Betts 3rd, but not because of his OBP disparity. I actually wanted Papi up 3rd, but that's another story, and now he's not really that hot either. At the start of the year, I suggested: 1) Betts (I thought his OBP would improve.) 2) Bogey (I suspected his power increasing.) 3) Papi (I like putting the best all around hitter up 3rd. I can see the argument for Betts here.) 4) Pedroia (Flip Pedey & Papi vs LHPs) 5) JBJ 6) Han Ram (Flip HanRam and JBJ vs LHPs) 7) Shaw 8) Young/Swi 9) Vaz/Swi I was okay with... 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) Betts 4) Papi 5) HanRam 6) JBJ 7) Shaw 8) Young/Swi 9) Vaz/Swi

Duly noted. That's why I used the words "maybe" and "might have..."

We traded away Margot, Guerra and more for a high-priced closer. We traded Espinoza for a possible "flash-in-the-pan" number 3/4 starter. (BTW, Pomeranz has not done as expected.) We could have possibly combined both offers and got a legitimate SP'er. Maybe we might have had to add Devers or Swihart, but at least we'd have our major hole fixed.

Not over the last 4-5 weeks, and if Betts hits like he normally does in the late season, it's not likely he will get on base less going forward. Before today's 2 for 4 games by Betts, here's the numbers over the last 28 days: .389 BETTS .372 Pedey .341 JBJ .310 Bogey July .415 Betts .382 HanRam .381 Pedey .359 Bogey .347 Papi 2nd Half .378 Pedey .372 Betts .345 JBJ .328 Holt .323 Bogey .313 Hill .309 Leon .304 Shaw .284 Ram .278 Papi Is it really a good idea to put the slumping Bogey ahead of Betts right now?

Pretty sad when the only good deal, so far, has been for a rental.

Obviously having the best DH in the league is not enough to make this team favorites, so I think this year's team has proven we need better pitching to win more consistently. I'm not saying Encarnacion would not greatly improve our odds at winning- clearly it would, but how much better will this exact team do next year with Encarnacion instead of Papi. We'd still need much more. We have about $30M to spend next year. We need two RP'ers just to stay even with this year. We need a solid SP'er. We have two incredible prospects that one likely will be blocked, if we sign Encarnacion, Certainly we can make a trade or two to lessen the bottlenecks and blockage and maybe fill a role or two listed above, but it won't be easy. I'm trying to stay optimistic, but so far I've disagreed with just about every trade and signing by DD. I'm not saying I'm better than him or that his moves won't prove to be more helpful than they have so far, but I was happy with Ben's 5 year plan (as I called it). Ben's FA signings were bad as well, and I was against almost all of his too, even the Vic signing that helped win us a ring. We still have a lot of great and promising pieces on the team. Let it play out and see what happens is all we can do right now.

Since Pedey and Bogey have about a .020 edge on Betts right now, they'd get on base maybe 10 more times each over Betts, if the OBP's stayed constant over 500+ PAs, but with just maybe 15 more PAs than Betts, that only amounts to maybe 1 more combined than they get now by moving up a slot. It's not about Mookie's low OBP. Batting him 3rd should be about his SLG%. That's all I'm saying. Maybe next year, we may see this eventually: 1) Beni or Moncada 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4)Bradley 5) Pedey 6) HanRam 7) Shaw/ Swihart/Young 8) Moncada or Beni/Young 9) Leon/Swihart/Vazquez

I beg to differ: with almost every PA his OBP rises. OBP 4/15 .271 4/30 .298 5/15 .306 5/31 .325 6/15 .339 6/30 .331 7/15 .342 7/31 .347 (He's at .350 now) Again, I'm not against moving Betts to the 3 slot. I'm just not going to use his "low" OBP as a reason to do so.

I actually like Shaw's chances to hold a FT position through next year better than HanRam, Pablo, Travis and Young. If we sign Encarnacion, then I think Shaw has three chances to play: 1) Beat out Moncada at 3B. 2) Beat our HanRam at 1B. 3) Shaw keeps his job at 3B as Moncada plays LF after Beni is traded in a larger package for a SP'er. Those are pretty good odds. I do still think he needs to show he's more than a platoon corner IF'er. Without Encarnacion or another big bat addition, I think Shaw is pretty safe in getting plenty of playing time next year at 3B and 1B.

Come on, really? Those are tiny sample sizes. All players go through slumps. Besides, April wasn't even our 3rd best month on offense: May 182 runs (.896 OPS) July 140 runs (.848 OPS) July was not that long ago! APR 126 runs (.790 OPS) JUN 126 runs (.765 OPS)