moonslav59

The one thing I dislike about this trade suggestion is the 1 year of Bubic, but I guess 2 years of Donovan + 1 for Bubic= 3 for Duran, so I'd do it. Maybe adding Bubic allows us to move Crawford and Harrison to the pen, instead of just one. Hell, if everyone is healthy, Oviedo or Sandoval could be pen bound. That would make for a solid pen, with several multi-inning pitchers in it. 1. Crochet 2. Bubic 3. Gray 4. Bello 5. Oviedo/Sandoval Closer: Chapman 8th Inning: Whitlock & Slaten Set-up: Weissert and Hicks (UGH!!!) or Moran Long men: Sandoval/Oviedo, Harrison, Crawford (Kelly is pushed to AAA.)

While I want more power, I don't want it at such a major expense with OBP and BA. Plus, much of those DHam numbers come from a half season stretch in 2024, which I am not convinced can or will be repeated again. Donovan has proven he can do what he does for many seasons in a row. DHam's .283 career OBP is a nonstarter, for me. I'm not writing him off, but even his 2024 OBP was just .303. The 2B defense is nice, and probably better than Donovan, but Donovan can play other positions better. DHam's speed is great, but it would be much more valuable, if he had a higher OBP, even if at the expense of a lower SLG.

Indeed. Much repairing the damage done is needed. It felt like a significant step was made last winter, and to a lesser extent with the Devers, Bello and Rafaela extensions the year before, but we are once again faced with the same ole-same ole, this winter. All the doubts, worries and frustrations are back front and center. I agree on the making the playoffs comment, but for 2026, I don't see it happening, unless we spend more or make a trade that sacrifices strength at other positions or weakens the farm further. I like our farm and it's focus on pitching. I like our young core of players under team control for many years. I like our mix of vets but think we need at least one more major and dependable addition for 2B or 3B. Another pitcher or 3B/2Bman would be nice, but I'm not for trading away the future to get the second guy, and I doubt JH allows Brez to spend enough to do that.

Okay. Donovan would do much better than DHam vs R/ Romy v L at 2B.

We had just extended Devers to a contract almost 50% higher than the Price record total money deal. We had just paid Buehler the highest AAV given to a SP'er since the Sale extension. It was more than Kluber + Richards.) We had just paid Bregman a $40M AAV, which was 30% more than the Devers record AAV deal. We also signed Chapman and furthered the extensions to younger players- this time Anthony & Campbell- this after seeing recent extensions to Bello & Rafaela. We pulled off the biggest blockbuster trade since Sale, and followed that up with a very significant extension that saw more total money going to a pitcher than anyone else since Sale. Hell, the total Crochet money handed out was more than Perez, Richards, Kluber, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Giolito, Sandoval & Buehler combined. These have all been marked changes in the trend, but so much was undone with the Devers dump and now staring at losing Bregman, Lowe and Ref and hoping Contreras can make up for that, too.

Exactly, after taking one step back for 4-5 years in a row, we took 3 steps up, then one step back with Devers, and are now looking at another step back, if we don't replace Bregman, in kind. Call Gray and Oviedo even with Giolito, Dobbins, Fitts & Buehler. Call Contreras a plus over the Lowe & Ref losses, but I'm not sure we can say it's a full step up. IMO, we need one more big step add to just keep us even with 2025. There is hope we can do better, because most of our team is on the upswing towards their primes, so we can hope for improvement, but in terms of replacing what we lost, we are one big step behind the start of 2025. (One can argue, by counting all the previous step backwards before 2025, we are still a couple steps behind the DD era, but one big step gets us to a pretty decent competitive level. IMO.) Donovan would be a nice add, but I'm not sure he's enough. Donovan + Vientos, without losing Duran or creating another hole? Hmmm..... What would you say is the minimum player added to get us to even with the losses of Devers, Bregman, Gio, Wilson, Ref, Dobbins, Fitts and others?

Couldn't have said it better Hitch. You mentioned top 5 and there does seem to be a drop off after #5 and 6. Spotrac had the tax payroll for 2025 at... 417 LAD, 346 NYM, 319 NYY, 314 PHI 286 TOR, 270 SDP 249 BOS, 246 HOU, 241 TEX To get to #6 would mean spending just $21M more. To #5 would take $37M more. They have us currently 8th for 2026: 342 LAD, 303 NYM, 301 PHI 281 TOR, 280 NYY 255 SDP, 250 ATL 234 BOS 217 HOU We are $46M from #5, something we will not do, but we are just $21M from #6, and we could do that and stay below the second line- assuming the Padres don't spend more, too. Top 6 or 7 should be a reasonable assumption. Higher is asking JH to do as you pointed out, something he may not want to or is set up to do.

Total bases? HUH????? 2024-2025: 439 Donovan (262 per 162 games) 604 Duran (309 per 162 games)

We have a surplus of OF'ers and can make a trade that even saves JH money, so we are not done, IMO. I would not trade Duran for Paredes and Sousa, but I think HOU would, and we'd save money on the AAV/Tax line. Are we better? We found our 3Bman and maybe Paredes hits as well as the 2026 Duran, but our roster balance would be improved, and we'd have a decent LH'd RP'er, too. Does that trade add wins?

Well said. We often throw names out to try and figure who those 1-2-3 guys might be, but who knows what other teams like and are prioritizing? We can look and see, "Oh, their 2Bman hit .590, last year, let's give them Romy," but that's surface thought.

I'm hoping for better and for more power, but Donovan would be way better than DHam/Romy at 2B. BTW, 2024-2025 OBP: .347 Donovan .337 Duran I value OBP way more than SLG, but not by this much: .468 Duran .419 Donovan Then, there are the 25-30 more SBs.

I think the thought was that Contreras is not a big improvement over the end of year Sox 1Bman. It's not how I see it, but I only stated how others might see it. I would not project bringing back N Lowe would net us a .790 1B OPS in 2026, so I see Contreras an improvement over Lowe and a major improvement over Toro and the others not named Romy in 2025.

Certainly not any decent SP'er. We could trade Duran for Bubic and maybe Lynch or someone else. We could trade Duran for Mitch Keller. We could trade Duran for Singer or maybe even Lodolo. I bet MIN takes Duran for Pablo Lopez + cash, and SEA takes him for Luis Castillo + cash. I doubt Duran + Crawford for Ragans works either, but something like that is possible.

I guess one could view Contreras and his near .790 OPS and about the same as Lowe's .790 OPS. I see Contreras as a very significant addition, and a solid solution to the 1B position that has been an issue, whenever Casas has been hurt, which has been more often than not. Before Casas, we were dealing with Dalbec, Chavis and god knows who else. Now, we need a 3Bman or 2Bman. It has to be an impact player. I like Donovan, but I don't see him as a major get, and I'd rather have Mayer/Romy at 2B than 3B, unless we get a major 2Bman like KMarte or Bichette.

I'm not so sure about that. Just because Brez is "asking the world" doesn't mean some hefty offers are not being made- just none Brez likes, right now. Brez may also have told a team or two that he may take their offer, but needs another issue settled first. I can't imagine why other GMs don't value Duran highly. All it takes is one. It doesn't look like there is any talk on Abreu or Rafaela, either, but we heard nothing about Sonny Gray or Oviedo, until BAM! I also feel like they have a lot of faith in Campbell, and having Duran twice blocks KC from an OF slot. KC's other position, DH, is maybe 3 times blocked with Masa, Casa and Romy. We have a major hole in the infield. Some think we have a hole in the #2 rotation slot. Either way, filling one of those holes and replacing Duran with Campbell just makes too much sense to not happen. Nothing against Duran. He's one of our top 2-3 offensive players, right now, and our offense looks worse than last year. I'd love to keep him, but I think it is wasteful play Duran (and even worse another of the 3 OF'ers) at DH.

I do, too. The thing is that other teams are not done adding either, especially the Yanks & Jays. As of now, it does look like the over/under should be 84.5.

Even if we signed Bregman and Ranger Sanchez, I'd still trade an OF'er.

Why greatly diminish Duran's value by DH'ing him? His value as an OF'er (4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024) is worth more to another team than to us as a DH, where his 2025 OPS is about the same as Masa's career OPS. Same thing with minimizing Rafaela's value by playing him at 2B. We have a great need at 2B or 3B. I think we could use both, but that is NOT happening. I'd also think we'd be way better with a solid #2 SP'er. Any improvement in these areas would far outweigh they gain we get by benching Masa/Casa/Romy/Campbell at DH for Duran.

Brez & BTV Values: 74 Crochet 31 Tolle 27 Narvaez 18 Witherspoon 13 Soto 12 Romy 11 Gray & Slaten 10 Gonzales 8 Oviedo, Phillips & Rivas 7 Harrison 6 Bennet, Sandlin & Eyanson 5 Sandoval 4 Weissert & Godbout 3 Delzine, Y Rod & Cason ____________________ Bloom's '21 to '23 additions were nice, too: 61 Anthony 55 Mayer 27 Abreu 24 Early 22 Arias 19 Campbell 10 Whitlock

Looking at BTV and the Phillies, and nothing against DD. I love the guy. They have an interesting mix of values. They have 9 contracts "underwater," including some high value players with higher contracts. Only Castellanos has zero skill value, but still 9 guys! On the plus side, they have a surprisingly few very high value players beyond Christopher Sanchez at a whopping 198! Their next two highest players are in the minors: Painter at 52 & Aidan Miller at 49. Big drop off.... Only 5 guys between 9 and 28: 28 Bryson Scott (2 yrs left) 26 Jesus Lazardo (1 yr left) 19 B Marsh (2) 17 Jh Duran (2) 17 Justin Crawford (minors) 15 Orion Kerkering Conversely, the Sox have 5 guys underwater (Story, Masa, Hicks, Chapman, Contreras & Houck) The Sox have 25 players at 8 or more. (26, if you count Rivas at 7.5) Their top 10 are all in MLB: Crochet, Anthony, Mayer, Duran, Rafaela, Tolle, Abreu, Narvaez, Bello & Early.) Arias is at 22 and Witherspoon 18 with Soto at 13. Crawford, Campbell & Casas are between 18-22. Romy, Gray, Slaten, Whitlock 10-12 w Oviedo at 8. Lots of those plus value players are Brez guys. For just 2 seasons- not bad.

I just can't see how Arenado could ever be viewed as a plus as anything more than a back-up corner IF'er and late inning D guy.

The difference as a DH, yes, but his value as an OF'er is much higher. Duran has the 4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024. (Abreu and Rafaela are top 24.) The guy have high value.

After all winter deals are done, yes.

Yes, my bad, Ted. Sorry.

He was such a "raw hitter" when he broke into the bigs. The thing is, he seems to be able to hit bad pitches just well enough to get by, but surely some discipline helped and may/should continue to do so.