moonslav59

Steamer Projected WAR Pitchers Sox 4.7 Sale 4.5 Price 3.7 Porcello 2.2 Pomeranz (24 GS) 1.6 ERod (23 GS) 0.5 Buch (6 GS) 0.4 Wright (6 GS) serious short-changed here 1.0 Kimbrel 0.8 Kelly 0.4 Ross 0.3 Thornburg (Hmmm) 0.4 Smith (giving him more IP, 40, than Wright!?!?) 0.2 Barnes 0.1 Hembre0.1 Abad CLE 4.8 Kluber 4.4 Carrasco 3.3 Salazar 1.6 Bauer 1.4 Timlin 0.8 Clevinger 0.5 Cooney 0.3 Merritt 1.8 Miller 0.8 Allen 0.5 Otero 0.5 McAllister 0.4 Shaw o.3 C Anderson Position Players Sox 5.4 Betts 3.8 Bogey 3.6 Pedey 3.0 JBJ 1.7 HanRam 1.3 Beni 1.1 Leon 0.9 Pablo 0.8 Vaz 0.7 Holt 0.6 Moreland 0.4 Young 0.1 Swihart Guardians 4.8 Lindor 3.3 Ramirez 2.8 Kipnis 2.6 Santana 1.4 Naquin 1.2 Brantley 1.1 Y Gomes 1.o R Perez 0.9 Guyer 0.8 Chisenhall 0.6 A Almonte'0.1 E Gonzalez

Wow, Ziegler is looking for a 3rd year guaranteed! Rumor has it he has multiple offers on the table at around $17M/2. Makes that "other" Basabe and Almonte trade look even better now. Wish we could have found a way to keep him, but at that cost, we'd pay that and a high tax.

Maybe we'd make it easier for Porcello to win by having him line-up with other teams' 3rd starter over the first 2-3 weeks of the season.

That's the thing I think some posters are missing. We built our farm to top 2 or 3 status using a system that allowed us to take advantage of our high spending and accumulation of comp picks- often rewards for signing big free agents or trading for high-priced players and then letting them walk, only to replace them with new high-priced free agents or players from trades. The great 2011 draft was all comp picks. That's not likely to happen again. The system is way different, and we should be winning over the next few years, so all of this is going to make rebuilding near impossible "the old way". It's easy to sit back and say, "these guys are smart, they'll find a way to rebuild the farm" or "Henry has more money than God, so we can just go wsay over the luxury tax, if we need to." Over the next 3-4 years, we can expect this: 1) No more top 20 picks like 7 Beni & 12 Groome. 2) More picks like these: 26 Chavis, 24 Marrero, 20 Vitek, 28 Fuentes, C Kelly, 27 Jason Place, 28 D Bard 3) No more comp picks like Kopech for Ellsbury, Johnson & Light for Papelbon, Barnes & Owens for VMart and JBJ & Swihart for Beltre, Ranaudo for Wagner, Bard for Damon, Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab and Buchholz for Pedro. 4) Much less ability to sign international players like: Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax, Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz), Devers $1.5M, J Diaz $600K (Sale), Margot $800K (Kimbrel), J Aro (C. Smith), Bogey $510K, Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree), F Montas (Peavy>Hembree), Tazawa $1.8M, Dice-K, Okajima, Doubront, A Sanchez, HanRam, Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling) Look where we'd be without a lot of the players listed above. That easily could be where we might be in 4-8 years.

...and I will say that Tito at one time said he liked having Wake in the rotation because it disrupted the timing of the opposing hitters, often times for more than one game... I wish I had saved my data, but I once did a 5 year study on games started after a Wake start and compared the ERA of that starter to his season ERA. There was a significant improvement in ERAs after a Wake start. Take my word for it. It's true.

I'm not sure 10 years is necessary. Our 2013 draft sucked. Maybe TBall (7th pick)will surprise us, but I seriously doub it. Stankiewicz (pick 45) is now ranked below 40 on soxprospects.com. Jon Denny is out of baseball (81st pick). Probably only Kyle Martin and Jake Romanski have ML hopes at this point. (Longhi? Witte?) 2012 may be harder to judge, but Marrero, Johnson and Light were all top 40 picks. Yuck! I dount Callahan or any of the 3 amount to anything special. 2011 is still hard to judge fully, and with 4 first round picks, expectations should be high, but I'll go out on a limb and say it was a very good to great draft: 19 Barnes 26 Swihart 36 Owens 40 Bradley 143 N Ramirez 172 Mookie Betts 292 Travis Shaw WOW! 2010 can be fully judge right now: it SUCKED!!!! 20 K Vitek- out of baseball 36 Brentz- my first DFA choice 39 Ranaudo - at least we got Robbie Ross for him 57 Workman 110 S Coyle Cechini 2009: BUST! 28 Reymond Fuentes 77 Alex Wilson 107 David Renroe Hazelbaker/Hassan 2008: Can be judged as a bust or close to it 30 Kelly (Agon) 45 B Price 77 D Gibson 85 S Fife 108 Weiland Vazquez/Westmoreland/Lava 2007: we drafted Rizzo in the 6th round- our last great pick outside of Betts. Still... 55 hagadone 62 R Dent 84 H Morris Middy This was the draft 10 years ago.

It was a joke aimed at exposing our future inability to make impact trades with no top prospects. Devers will be at 3B (Pablo at 1B or DH in 1-2 years). Groome will be needed to replace Porcello (or Pom & Buch). Travis will replace Moreland and then HanRam/Pablo. Who is left to trade for a top player?

...and is still significantly younger than most players at the level he has been at.

If CLE loses Napoli and doesn't replace him in kind, that will hurt. That CLE rotation and depth looks tough: Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, Merrit & McAllister (RP?)

Do you think there was ever talk of Swihart instead of Kopech?

I'd kind of like to throw Wright in the middle of the big three just to mess with the opponents timing, but we start with a 3 games series, so putting Wright up secon is a stretch. Maybe... 4/3 Pitt (Sale) 4/5 Pitt (Porcello) 4/6 Pitt (Price) 4/7 @Det (Erod) 4/8 @ Det (Wright) 4/9 @Det (Sale +1 days rest) after a wright outing 4/10 @Det (Porcello) We have another day off April 13th and 24th. that's 3 days off in the first 19 days. I think we start the season with 12 pitchers- maybe even 11.

I'm not sure trading is a big option. 1) We most likely won't have the great prospects to trade for meaningful pieces. 2) If we trade vets, it means we are losing and are getting ready for the next season by trading players with 2 months or a year left of team control. I think our best hopes rest with signing international players. These signings have carried us, and despite the new spending restrictions and penalties, I think this is the area we have shown the most skill and can be expected to continue to some extent. Here are our international signings: 14-15 & bonus Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz) C Acosta $1.5M R Castillo $5.4M (plus mega deal) 13-14 Devers $1.5M J Diaz $600K (Sale) Hinojosa $4M 12-13 Almonte $610K W Rijo $575K (A Hill) 11-12 Margot $800K (Kimbrel) T-W Lin $2M 10-11 Linares $750K J Aro (C. Smith) 09-10 Bogey $510K Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree) F Montas (Peavy>Hembree) J Vincio $1.95M 08-09 Tazawa $1.8M 07-08 Almanzar $1.5M 06-07 Dice-K Okajima 04-05 Doubront 2001 A Sanchez 2000 HanRam 1998 Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling) 1984 C Quintanna

It's just taking a practical look at the future. Seriously, I'm not feeling gloom and doom, just some serious choices will have to be made with close to zero room for error to keep us strong beyond 4 years. Our past record in late round draft choices, free agent signings and tighter international signings rules makes it difficult for me to believe we will be close to zero error free with our major choices over the next 3-4 years.

Well, decisions have to be made before 2020 (and before) as well, and with rising arb costs, replacing departing players will not leave much room for FAs or massive extension costs. I think we'll be okay after 2017: $29M $13.5M Buch (replace with Owens/Johnson) $7.5M Young (replace with Swihart) $5.5M Moreland (replace with Travis) $2.5M Abad (replace with Scott) Arb raises to some of these players could be very costly 3 of 3 Pom, Kelly & Ross 2 of 3 Bogey, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge 2 of 4 JBJ & Leon 1st arb Betts, Smith, ERod, Wright, Swihart & Vaz We might have a little left over for a FA to fill a role. after 2018 (2019): We may lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly & Ross --not much money coming off the books, but we still have 5 SP'ers on the books, so maybe we can get by with in-house solutions, except for maybe a closer (Thornburg/Smith?). --Again, even bigger arb raises is going to way outpace what we save by letting Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly and Ross go. --Who will back fill the pen with no money to spend? If we decide to keep Kimbrel, like I said in my scenario below, then we're way over the luxury limit again. --We could start seeing serious issues as early as 2019, but I still see us as serious or highly competitive, even if we lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly $ Ross. After 2019: Huge decision time. Rebuild? Pay a huge tax? Keeps some-let others go? --Pablo off the books will help a lot, even with a $5M buyout (paid in luxury tax dollars prior to 2020). HanRam will hurt, but Devers should be helpful. Porcello & Bogey are going to be the key re-signs. --Huge arb raises --we could see some major roster changes for 2020, but I still think we could be major contenders. Lots of "what ifs".

Good one. Let's trade Chatham, Dalbec, Chavis & TBall for Quintana.

Let's say, for argument's sake, we keep all our top stars, except Hanram at the following costs (minimizing the gaps we might need filled by lesser ranked prospects): 2021 $33M Sale $33M Betts $31M Price $28M Porcello $24M JBJ $22M Bogaerts $16M Kimbrel $14.5M Thornburg $13.5M Pedey $13M C Smith______ $238M for 10 players. Let's say we do without Smith or Thornburg. We'll still be at $225M with 16 more players needed for the 25 man roster and 31 total for the 40 man roster. Unless we want to go even more over the luxry limit, we can't sign any more Youngs or Morelands or trade for guys making $5M or more. Maybe we trade Pedey or Bogey before they reach free agency and lessen the budget and build up the farm at the same time, but then that's another gap we are asking lower ranked prospects to fill without losing much production. No Pom, Young, Moreland, Kelly, Ross, Holt, Wright or Vaz (all FAs before 2012). So, with a mediocre far, we fill 16 gaps: Pablo> Devers HanRam > Travis Moreland> Dalbec Vaz > Swihart Pom> Groome Wright> Johnson Buch> Owens (I had so say it- get it? Buck Owens!) Thornburg or C Smith> Scott/TBall/Martin/Ysla/Workman (Move up guys like Barnes, Scott Maybe ... Bogey > Chatham JBJ> Castillo or a draft pick to come? I'm sorry to say it, and don't call me a doom & gloomer, it's reality. This doesn't look pretty in 2021.

I like the Moreland signing, but I'd have been very happy with hanram at 1B and EE at DH, if we could find a way to still reset the luxury tax for next winter.

It's too bad Swi got rushed into ML action and started his countdown to arbs and free agency. We still have 5 years of control, so there's time for him to develop into a decent defensive catcher and still get 3-4 years out of him. Maybe I'm being pessimistic on Swi, but I still see him ending up in LF or at 1B/3B someday in the next year or two. I know Sox management proclaimed he was going to be a catcher only in 2017, but I think they felt that way going into 2016 as well.

I doubt he'll be viewed as ML ready for 2017, so I left him off the list. He struggled out of the gate after his last promotion, but that doesn't mean he will at AA. There is a chance he jumps to AAA this year, and if he's doing very well, and we need a 3Bman, I guess there's a slight chance he could be 3B depth. Right now, we have Holt, Rutledge, and Hernandez behind Pablo. If we have to go deeper than that, I can see a scenario where Devers passes Dominguez on the depth charts.

Well, all teams are being judged on paper right now. The Cubs have added a couple of nice pen pieces. They should be even better, if that's possible, on paper (or by the numbers). All we can really hope for any given winter, is to improve our team. It looks like we did, by the numbers, but the games are played on the field. It should be a fun year, if the numbers match up with reality.

DH or bench. I'm against this trade, now that I realized Frazier is due a hefty arb raise.

People were saying (not necessarily the same people) that we shouldn't count on prospects, especially far away ones, and that it's better to trade them for proven vets, so we can win now. Now, some are saying we shouldn't worry about the extended future because we have prospects we can count on to fill the gaps. You don't see an inherent contradiction there? We couldn't count on blue chips, but now we can count on buffalo chips.

None of these guys will be DFA'd, so why not keep all our best pitchers on the 25 man roster. The real choice here may be Buch, Pom, Wright or ERod vs out-of-options pitchers like Abad, Hembree and Elias.

Agreed, thye only time options comes into the equation is if you have to trade or cut someone by keeping another good guy on the 25 man roster. Pom & Buch will help the pen. They're not going to AAA or another team, so this way we maximize our talent. (Actually, Buch may end up elsewhere.)

Q has one extra year, I believe, over Sale. In a perfect world, I'd have found a cheaper way to get a closer- either financially or without top prospects. So, nix the Kimbrel, Pom and Hill trades. Yes, I'd have paid more for Q over Sale, but from what I hear their demands for Q looked like less than for Sale. I'd have given Moncada, Espi or Kopech, Basabe & Diaz for Q. Maybe we could have traded Moncada, Espi, Kopech, Margot, Guerra, Basabe, Asuaje. Allen & Diaz for Sale & Q. (Basically trading Kimbrel & Pom for Q, but having more money to spend on maybe EE.)