moonslav59

I'm not so sure. He's always been fat.

True enough. The poor 2015 season was what started the whole think, but until then, I don't think Pablo viewed his weight as a major issue. By the looks of the shape he came into camp in 2016, I think he didn't even think "it started" yet. From the fans point of view, the 2015 season should have been the "wake-up call". He should have done what he has been doing this winter last winter (or even before). I've battled with weight issues much of my life, but if I knew I could be playing a major sport, I'd be in the gym every day. It's hard for us to fathom the recklessness of someone who has had the dream in his hands and pissed it away by over-eating.

Was he really all that fatter than the spring before, or was it more a frustration over reports that he had lost a lot of weight, but really hadn't? By the time Pablo knew his job was on the line, the damage had already been done to the point that expecting him to get in shape to win the job in a few short weeks was unrealistic. I'm not defending Pablo. I hated the signing day one. My point was that I think Pablo never felt his weight was a big issue, because he had always done pretty well at a heavy weight before. He never "needed" to work to get into shape to be a starter until ST'ing 2016. I think he knows now. I think he has enough pride to want to end all the negative talk he's heard over the last year or more. I had a feeling he'd get himself into the best shape he's been in for years. I'm hopeful he's still working to lose even more weight.

Just barely, with no wiggle room for anything else. Not worth it.

Hernandez was actually red hot before this past week. Castillo will really have to impress to be added to the 40 man roster and luxury tax budget. My guess is that if he does well, we'll trade him and maybe pay some of his contract. A question: if we trade him and pay $5M a year of his salary, and he's on someone else's 40 man roster, does that $5M count against our luxury tax number? If so, we shouldn't trade him.

Especially Sox players, so bad slumps don't bother me. I know the hot streaks will come along at some point.

About 9th to 15th in most categories I care about, but as you get to the 10th through 16th slots, there's not much separating them from the middle of the pack pens. What I think is happening is that we remember the pen that ended the season doing very well. Kimbrel had returned from Injury. Uehara had too and was doing very well. Ziegler was acquired during the year and did great for us. Tazawa turned things around a little near the end. Kelly sucked in April as a starter, but gave us hope by doing well in a small end of season sample size. 3 of those guys are gone, and we're relying on guys like Kelly and barnes to pitch like Uehara and tazawa. A top 10-15 pen loses Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa and adds Thornburg and maybe, eventually Smith, I'm thinking we should expect worse this year. Now, a team with great starters, a great defense and decent defense can probably absorb having a mediocre pen, but that doesn't mean we can't try to make one more adjustment before the season starts and we'll have to trade someone to get someone good.

Well, in Pablo's case, coming to camp out of shape was what he always had done, and it worked out okay. I'm sure some kind of laziness or personal care issues have always been part of who he is, but to him, it didn't matter until "it mattered".

Oh! I would, if I could. There's construction going on all around Houston, but there's this one light near my house where the wait time is like 3.5 minutes for the green. Cars sit and wait for 7 minutes, and it's finally their turn and they poke along. They just waited through 2 lights! And they get distracted? Yikes! (I guess I'm not letting go as easily and quickly as I thought. Let's change the subject!)

Now that I can relate to, but honestly, I don't get bothered by one of our players having a bad streak, unless he's always sucked.

You're probably right. I just expected more pen building than just Thornburg and hopes of a speedy Carson Smith recovery. Our pen was a weak point last year, and we lost 3 of our best pen arms to free agency.

soxprospects reports on.... ERod: The Red Sox are not concerned with the injury, though it is the same knee that Rodriguez injured during spring training last season. Hanley Ramirez was 3 for 12 with a double and two walks. Marco Hernandez was 0 for 9 with a walk. Roenis Elias made starts for the Aguilas last Tuesday and this Monday, throwing ten total innings and allowing three runs on nine hits and six walks, punching out eleven. Fernando Abad made two appearances, going 1 2/3 shutout innings with three strikeouts and a walk. Christian Vazquez took part in three games this week, going 2 for 10 with a double and bringing his slash line to .237/.333/.320 this winter. Rusney Castillo has had more offensive success in Puerto Rico and that continued into this week as he was 7 for 15 with a double, including back-to-back three-hit performances on Monday and Tuesday.

Not really...just certain areas of my life. I know it's stupid to let certain things get to me, especially if they are out of my control. I don't stay steamed very long, so I guess that's good. Most of my friends and family view me as very laid-back and relaxed.

I know I shouldn't let it bother me. It's like the slow driver when the light turns green. It's out of my control, but it still boils my blood.

I think I asked this earlier with little response: Are you all really content with our 3-7 RP'ers (at least until Carson Smith returns)? 1 Kimbrel 2 Thornburg 3 Kelly 4 Wright (assuming ERod is healthy) 5 Ross 6 Barnes 7 Hembree/Abad/Scott We keep taking about our 6-7 RP'er and some of their issues with options, but I see a big need and plenty of question marks on our 3-6 RP'ers. We want to hope Kelly continues how he left off last year, but we felt then same way last winter after his nice 2015 ending. We want to hope Carson Smith will return is as good shape as he was in 2015, but who knows? We want to hope Ross continues being one of our most consistent RP'ers over the last two years. We want to hope Barnes shows us more of the glimpses of promise he showed us last year. We want to hope all our starters stay healthy, so we can rely on having Wright or Pom in the pen. We want to hope Hembree comes through on some of that promise he's had for over 3 years. There's lots of hope here but little reliable confidence building RP'ers in this group. Maybe the sheer number of promising pitchers gives us good odds that 2-3 will do well all year, but I'd prefer to have a (more) solid guy in the 3 slot by opening day. I don't want to use up all of our flex spending account, but trading a prospect at the deadline for a quality RP'er is not comforting either.

His .461 OPS against by lefties led the team last year. I agree though, we don't need him. Ross and Scott did great vs lefties as well. Kimbrel kept lefties at a .514 OPS and Thronburg has a massive reverse split of over 200 points. He's much better vs LHB'ers. Abad is also expected to make close to $2M in arb. I'd trade him, but I'd try to get another RP'er almost as good but with options remaining. We'd save money and keep the pen depth.

I stand corrected on Romo. He'd be better than Storen, but much more costly as well. If we could get him for $4.5 to 5.5M, we'd still have some nice flex to trade for a starter, if needed at the deadline.

Good point, but I can't help but feel irked by posters who continuously have knee-jerk reactions to tiny sample size performances (good or bad). I mean, how many times do they have to be proven wrong to realize a player's last 50 PAs or 25 IP'd is a valid indicator of how good or bad that player has been or will continue to be. That's just my own personal beef. Nothing personal.

I've been right alongside you with the JBJ support. I never gave up on him. Although I argued he didn't ever need to hit well to still be a significant plus, I never felt he'd always be a sub.700 hitter. JBJ's minor league numbers were just too overpowering for me to think he couldn't make the necessary adjustments needed to get over .750. His .830+ OPS over the past two seasons combined have been about what I expected him to become. The issue many have here is how he came to those numbers. Like Napoli before him, I don't really care all that much as long as our guy ends up over .800. Sure, I'd like a more consistent .800, but those 1.000 streaks can really carry a team almost single handedly.

$3M and no lost prospects is pretty inexpensive for a quality FA set-up man RP'er these days, especially one with some positive closer experience. Granted, Storen has some big questions or concerns. I'm not saying I wish we signed him at $4M. I'm just saying it might have been a good idea to sign someone like him than to try and trade for a RP'er doing well mid-season. We need to try and keep our prospects at least for a while.

I think Holland will cost much more, Papelbon is a bum, Smith and Romo have little closer experience. Look, I'm fine with not signing another RP'er before the start of the season. I like having the flex money for the deadline, but I'm still very concerned about asking Thornburg to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa. I understand Carson Smith may help at some point in 2017, but I'm not very confident in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and Hembree/Abad/Scott taking up the rest of the slack from losing 3 of our best RP'ers from a pen that was about average last year.

I don't disagree, and maybe his "upside" is not any higher than Barnes or Hembree's. It's his experience as a closer that is attractive to me. I'm not sure Thornburg is that kind of guy.

I actually got through the whole post, and it was a good one. Let me ask you this about JBJ: assuming JBJ continues to get support on keeping his "stride right", do you no longer anticipate any pro-longed slumps by JBJ? I think this whole random- not random argument has gotten out of hand. While there may be mechanical or other reasons for a player starting or ending a slump, looking at the numbers from a fan or mathematician's standpoint, when a player starts or ends his slump (for whatever reason or in some cases for no reason but just plain luck) is random or as good as random. Even if we knew JBJ was working with Rodriguez to adjust his stride, would that help us pinpoint (or project) the exact time we thought his slump would end? Mike Napoli is probably a better case to dissect. The guy had dozens of mini-slumps and torrid hot streaks as well as big variances in final season numbers. Here are his final season OPS numbers: .815-794-960-842-784-1046-812-842-789-734-800 His 2013 monthly OPS numbers varied from .668 in June to 1.227 in September. I remember countless posters screaming for him to be benched or cut during his long slump that year (15 for 71 followed by a 5 for 46 stretch in August)). He ended up going 22 for 64 from AUG 31st to the end of the regular season with 6 HRs and 6 DBLs. His .850 OPS and 27 RBI's in April helped carry us for that stretch. After his sleep apnea issue was corrected, many felt his 2014 season was going to be better than 2013. Instead, he totally yo-yo'd: .932>.606>.954>.760>.679>.682 2015 was not much different: 519-878-595-792-749-900 (1st half .648/ 2nd half .903 mostly with TX) Even with CLE last year: 672 852 777 971 888 612 (Below .550 in 56 playoff PAs)

Agreed, but I think you might find, in most cases, that a good fastball hitter "owns" fastball pitchers with bad secondary pitches.

I agree, but my thought is that we can probably trade Abad and Hembree for RP'ers who are not out of options, thereby keeping the depth but in a more flexible form. To me, the downfall of signing Storen, assuming he'd have come here as a non-closer, is the loss in flex spending, however the money needed at the deadline should not be that much as we'd only be paying 2/3rds of a player's salary. $8M is enough to trade for two guys making $12M each for the season. The upside is possible closer depth (like Uehara was for Kimbrel).