moonslav59

True, but his minor league numbers are way ahead of Pablo's 3 year numbers. I'd let Pablo start off full time, but if he struggles vs LHPs, like I think he will, I'd use Holt as a platoon pretty quickly. The only way Hernandez or Dominguez get involved is if there is an injury or Holt sucks.

[/b] You make some good points, but I'd like to add this... Maybe if Swihart stayed catching last year, our staff suffers and we don't even make the playoffs. I didn't see a drop off of defense by Vaz, except for CS% (52>35%), which I feel is grossly overvalued. Leon has had a few hot stretches in his career, something Vaz has never done except if you count .863 in single A ball as one. Leon has had these selected numbers on the farm: .856 in 2012 (231 PAs mostly at AA & AAA) .938 in 2013 (142 PAs in the Venezuelan winter league) He's just been so God-awful in between those hot stretches. Still .720 in AAA beats Swihart--see below. Swihart's offense is often cited as his biggest tangible attribute, yet when has he actually had a big offensive season? His best season has been .840 in 92 games at AA back in 2014. His AAA OPS is .675. Vaz is at .715.

If we assume Pablo does well this year, I find it hard to believe he can or will ever be acceptable vs LHPs. Here are his numbers vs lefties: 2012: .745 (137 PAs) 2013: .686 (167) 2014: .563 (205) 2015: .465 (155) This is extremely disturbing. Out of 82 MLB players with over 600 PAs vs LHPs in this period, Pablo placed 82nd at .608. The next guy was about 40 points behind! It looks even worse from 2013-2015: out of 71 hitters with 450 PAs vs LHPs, Pablo placed 71st with a .572 OPS. The next worst hitter was 60 points higher (Mike Aviles at .632). Now, we might look at Holt and Hernandez and see that both are lefties, so no platoon would look practical, but if we look at Holt's career splits, we'd see he actually hits lefties slightly better than righties: Holt: v RHPs .272/.329/.375/.704 v LHPs .272/.342/.367/.709 (very close, but the OBP is significantly better (+13 pts) Hernandez: v RHPs: .668 (47 PAs) v LHPs: 1.056 (just 9 PAs) AAA v RHPs: 809 (2016)/.709 (2015) v LHPs .736 (2016)/.710 (2015) AA v RHPs: .877 v LHPs: .731 Matt Dominguez (RH'd hitter) v RHPs: .641 (981 PAs) v LHPs: .653 (388 PAs) All three of these guys look to be better 3B options vs LHPs than Pablo.

Throwing out runners (or not), as I'm sure you know, is just a small fraction of run prevention a catcher can influence in a positive or negative way. I'm not sure the claim that great all around defensive catchers only save 12-15 more runs over the league average. I'm not sure Vaz or Leon save that much over the average, but if they save 15 and Swihart loses 15 from the average, the gap could be 30 (or more). Swihart has a good arm and pop time, so I doubt he loses much there, but in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking and handling the staff with pitch calling and affecting a pitcher's emotional and mental state of mind. These areas are very hard to quantify, but that doesn't mean they aren't real and highly influential.

He did start out slowly, but got over .900 bu June 1st. By the end of June he was near .850. He missed some time with an injury, and basically his about .850 from mid-August to the end of September. I've been tooting Young's horn vs lefties since we got him. The guy has been one of MLB's best hitters vs lefties over the last 3 years. Young's .875 OPS v LHPs since 2014 places him 24th among all MLB batters with 350+ PAs vs lefties. Only HanRam (.902) has a better OPS on the current Sox roster. Not playing Young vs all LH'd starters would be criminal.

Exactly. Imagine us holding onto Buch, him getting hurt or sucking (high probability) and us not resetting the tax. We basically trade Buch, Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Diaz for Sale and $7M in luxury tax salary relief....enough to avoid the tax and leave us some flex space.

The biggest factor against signing EE is that if we reset the tax his year, we can afford to go over next year in a better market. We'll also have a better idea of where our biggest need is. We'll know more about 3B (Panda & Devers). We'll know more about 1B/DH (HanRam & Travis). We'll know more about Beni & JBJ and our 3 catchers. We'll know more about our starter depth and bullpen. We'll be looking at these avalaible free agents: 1B: Eric Hosmer & Carlos Santana 3B: Moustakas & Frazier C: Lucroy OF/DH: JD Martinez, J Bruce & C Young SP: Arrietta, Darvish, A Cobb, G Gonzalez, M Moore & others RP:Clippard, W Davis, B Shaw, KRod & others

To me, the only debate that might happen is if EE ends up signing for $16M a year or less. $13.5M Buch + $5.,5M Moreland = $19M. Figuring we need at least $2-4M for wiggle room to stay under the limit, that would have left about $15-17M to sign EE or Bautista. Then, there's still next year to worry about as these guys get older. I just don't think DD has ever been seriously interested in EE. The only way this debate should be open, is if EE's contract cost and/or years comes in way below what DD expected.

Each season, there are usually about 5-10 starting catchers who have an OPS below .700 and about 5 of those below .650. Some might say Vaz hasn't proved he can even hit .620, but I can see Vaz as a starting catcher somewhere in MLB even at .620. I also think Swihart would start for several teams as well, regardless of his defense, because his offense would make-up the difference. Leon is a lot like Vaz, except that he has shown he can hit ML pitching at times.

Think of it this way; let's say we get to June or July and realize we need a starter. We can trade for a guy making $20M annually (someone else's salary dump), because we only pay the pro-rated amount. If we trade at the half way point, we pay $10M and are still under the limit. If we wait until the deadline, we'll pay $7.3M. We could even end up trading for Buch in June or July! I've brought up the point about using our 10th starter (O'Sullivan) for four starts in early May, but when you look at all the question marks with SP'ers we had starting the season and compare it to this year, I actually feel better about our depth than this year. Even Porcello was a question mark this year in March--not as a 4th or 5th starter, but you get my point. Kelly was our 5th starter based on 8 good starts to end the 2015 season after sucking the rest of it. Buch was our 4th starter, and we all know how dependable he has been. ERod was our 3rd starter. We all had great hopes for him, but there was always doubt. Wright was our 6th starter and did better than most expected. Owens was really disappointing. Johnson got the jitters. Elias was supposed to be a good starter for depth but was given just one chance to start, and that was way after O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan probably started as the 10th on the depth chart. Of course I'm concerned about our starter depth, but it's not like Buch has been some sort of rock we could have counted on to be there, if needed. I see our opening day starters expectations as compared to this year's opening day expectations like this: 1 Sale>Price 2 Porcello > Porcello 3 Price > Erod 4 ERod > Buch 5 Pom > Kelly 6 Wright > Wright 7 Owens 8 Johnson 9 Elias 10 Kelly/Workman = O'Sullivan Yes, 7-10 appears worse, but the 1-6 look so much better this year than last, that I feel it will more than make up the difference.

It's hard to imagine Moreland ready to sign elsewhere and DD needing to act quickly or lose him. I do think Moreland is a better choice than all the others mentioned (B Moss, A Lind, Morrison...). I think DD is just plain not interested in EE. Maybe his age. Maybe it's the 3+ years demand. Maybe, even if his price comes way down, DD wanted a guy that can play excellent 1B defense.

The one big step Devers took this year that he needed to take, and what made me feel like Moncada was expendable was on defense.

And, first we'll try Holt and Hernandez before even trying Dominguez (or some sort of L-R platoon with Dominguez).If they don't work out, we may go outside the system before rushing Devers.

I think Branch Rickey is Theo's only true competition, but as always, it's hard to compare cross eras.

I think HanRam will DH vs almost all RHPs and Young vs. almost all LHPs. Moreland plays 1B vs almost all RHPs. Young will play OF only when one of the B's need a rest or are injured. One player that worries me maybe more than he should is HanRam. He's been up and down a lot in his career and has a long injury history. Swihart is the wild card. This could be his breakout year, but finding him a position might take a catcher injury or trade, since both Vaz and Leon are out of options. I know I caught a lot of grief for saying this in the past, but I'm going to say it again; if Swihart is doing very well in AAA, and there is an injury or major issue at 1B, DH or OF, we could see Swihart playing LF or DH as well as being the third catcher at times.

Update on Marco Hernandez... It was a solid week for Marco Hernandez (pictured), who went 5 for 19 with a triple and a home run. He now has three home runs in his last eight games.

Well, sometimes it can be a curse, but in our case, only the Pablo deal looks awful, and even that signing is showing a glimmer of hope. I see it as a blessing for now, but having so many key players coming off the books in a 2 to 3 year window (2019-2021) could make decisions more complicated and difficult. A lot can and will happen before 2021, and winning a ring or two before then will make any possible decline a lot more easier to handle.

I know they've said resetting the luxury tax is just a priority not a necessity, so I do think it could happen, if DD really wants the guy, but I have to think they saw the Buch trade and $13.5M freed up coming when they signed Moreland. I still think the Moreland signing shows DD has not been interested in EE enough think of him as a serious option. Maybe, he didn't foresee his contract numbers and years demanded falling, if indeed they are falling, so a re-evaluation could be happening, but I doubt it. Next year's FA market is loaded, and resetting the luxury tax will allow us to sign a younger star, if going over the limit is something we are now comfortable doing..

If it's Moreland's $5.5M that keeps us from signing one of these "left out" sluggers (EE, Bautista or Trumbo), there's going to have to be some "splaining" to be done!

Mine involves lots of stories involving lots of toilets and trash cans.

Some roster issues related to players out of options: Catcher: Since both Vaz and Leon are out of options, calling up Swihart would mean... 1) We go with 3 catchers (Swi could DH or play LF) 2) Vaz or Leon go on the DL. 3) We trade Vaz or Leon. Starting Pitchers: with Buch no longer on the depth chart and Johnson/Owens having questionable skills, is keeping Roenis Elias on the 25 man roster a stronger consideration? He's out of options and may be our best SP'er option beyond the 6th starter (ERod, Pom or Wright). Pom & Wright have no options as well. ERod has 2, but I feel he's the best of this group. We could park Elias in the pen, so we could keep him around, but then we may squeeze out a RP'er without options as well (see below). The other alternative, assuming the other 6 starters are healthy would be to create a phantom DH scenario for Elias or a Rper or two. Relief Pitchers: Carson Smith may not return until June or July, so that will put off one decision until later this season. Kimbrel, Thornburg and Kelly seem like sure bets, barring injury, but Kelly has been inconsistent and he has an option left . I think Ross is close to a lock as well, but he has one option. Barnes probably looks like he heads the list of bubble players, but he has 2 options remaining, unlike others. Here's how I order then by skill level (assuming a 7 man pen): Kimbrel 0 Thornburg 0 Wright 0 or Pom 0 (Erod 2) Kelly 1 Ross 1 Barnes 2 Hembree 0 Elias 0 (see SP'er above) Abad 0 Scott 3 Workman 2 Martin 3 N Ramirez 1 Ysla 3 Jerez 2 Olmos 0 OF: Bryce Brentz is out of options. I see no way he makes the 25 man roster without an injury or two to our OF. No real competition here.

Vodka is the only drink I can still alcoholic drink without a slight gag reflex... long story.

I've never seen a modern Sox team so locked up for so long with basically no positions up for grabs except the 7th RP'er/25th roster spot. Years of control C 4- Leon & Vaz 5- Swihart (Romanski) 1B 1- Moreland 1 Craig (not on 40 man) 3- HanRam (Travis, Ockimey, Longhi) 2B 3- Holt 5- Pedey 3B 3-4 Pablo 3 Rutledge (Devers, Dalbec, Chavis) SS 3- Bogey (Hernandez, Marrero, Chatham ) LF 1- Young 4+ Beni (Brentz) CF 4- Bradley 4- Castillo (not on 40 man roster) RF 4- Betts SP 2 Pomeranz 2 or 6 Price 3- Porcello 3- Sale 4- Wright 5- ERod (Johnson, Owens, Groome, Raudes) RP 1- Abad (out of options) 2- Kimbrel 2- Kelly 2- Ross 3- Thornburg 3- Workman 4- C Smith 4- Barnes 4- Hembree (out of options) 4- Elias (out of options) (R Scott, N Ramirez, Martin)

I meant swap JBJ and Betts from CF & RF, assuming Betts could become a better CF'er in little time, something I don't necessarily disagree with.

What about Stoli (My fave, but I admit I am a novice compared to you) Vanil & Fanta Orange for an orange creamsicle.