moonslav59

Last years draft was all about Groome, the other high ceiling picks didn't sign. Dalbec had a nice start and I hope he turns into a diamond in the rough. This is a guy who struck out 32% of the time in college, he's got a TON of swing and miss in his swing and had a good year against lesser competition in Lowell. Word on the street was the Sox liked him better as a pitcher but he really wanted to play 3rd base. It's a lot easier to switch to pitching from hitting than the other way around so why not let him hit and see what he can do. I'm not trying to take anything away from him. And I'm hoping he proves people wrong but I'd take his first season with a huge grain of salt. Guys who hit for power but have a big hole in their swing in the lower minors have 100 times more ways to fail than to succeed on their way to the majors. The guys I really wanted after Groome were Nick Quintana, and Jeff Belge. After Groome, we probably have a future reliever or two and thats it. Chatham could develop but he's probably more likely a utility role. In hindsight, a lot of the high upside picks like Quintana were guys they had no chance in signing but would make a run at with some more money if Groome failed to sign. the 2015 draft is really a one man show. I trust your analysis of young prospects more than my own. I'm hopeful that one or two from Dalbec, Chatham, Shawaryn and Nogosek move up more than expected. What are your thoughts on 17 year old Bryan Mata (not a draft pick but still a recent international signing)?

I'd rather have a guy who has the same OBP but hits into less DPs up 1st or 2nd. I realize high DPs numbers are not in large part a result of being slow, but a DP is a DP and it matters. Certainly not as much as OBP and making contact, especially for a #2 guy, but it matters to a small degree when added to the other factors of base running.

I don't see JBJ as being fast in terms of comparing to other CF'ers or as a base stealer, but he's certainly not slow. He has quick reaction times and a great ability to read the proper path needed to track down fly balls. He's a smart base runner who uses his plus but not great speed to be a better base runner than some guys that are faster than him. Pedey is not the slowest runner in the league, but he has slowed down. Again, this was not about me looking at data and then making my opinion up; it was about my observations leading me to look at the data and seeing that it backed up my opinion. He doesn't take the extra base as much. He runs into outs more often than before. Here is some data from BR: Extra base taken when possible in 2016: 63% Bogey 59% Betts 53% Beni (small sample size) 51% JBJ (40% league average) 39% HanRam 35% Pedey 29% Shaw 16% Papi Running into outs on base: 11 HanRam 7 Pedey, Ortiz, Shaw, Bogey 5 Holt & JBJ 4 Beni (scary when considering his amount of time on base) Now, lets look at Pedey's MVP year in 2008: 95% SB% to 64% in 2016 Running into outs on base: 7 (same as 2016) Extra base taken 48% led the team (39% league average) SB%, outs run into, XBT% 2008: 95%, 7 and 48% 2009: 71%, 6 and 40% (39% league avg.) 2010: 90%, 2 and 39% (equal to league avg.) short season 2011: 76%, 4 and 36% 2012: 77%, 6 and 45% 2013: 77%, 10 and 40% 2014: 50%, 6 and 46% 2015: 50%, 8 and 32% 2016: 64%, 7 and 35% One can see a clear decline in SB%, more outs run into over the last 4 years, and a big dip in extra bases taken over the last two years. My observations were not deceiving. Bogey: 2014: 40%, 4 and 44% 2015: 83%, 9 and 69% 2016: 76%, 7 and 63%

I respectfully disagree that a player's last season is the best predictor of what comes next. And, this isn't about nit-picking Pedey. I was actually viewing it in the light of losing Papi's power and putting a better SLG% guy in the 4-5 hole instead of Bogey. I don't view Bogey's late season struggle as a sign of an upcoming worse season. I think his OBP will rise from being close to .020 lower than Pedey to being about the same. I was also basing the moves on the assumption that Beni has a comparable OBP as Pedey. (He was '017 being Pedey in a very small sample size this year.) I do admit that part of my position is based on my belief that Pedey's OBP might fall next year, but it's more about my belief that the younger players will keep improving, and the fact that they are better base runners. I'm not pretending that my predictive methodology is better than others, but I tend to eschew short sample sizes and look at longer 3-5 year trends and age curves. Here's Pedey's last 5 years of OBP (old to new): .347>.372>.337>.356>.376 Here's his SLG% over the same period: .449>.415>.376>.441>.449 (age 32) Bogey OBP: .320>.297>.355>.356 Bogey SLG: .364>.362>.421>.446 (age 23) I do agree that OBP is the most important goal of a lead off hitter, but it's also almost equally important for the number 2 hitter, so that is one reason I would be fine with Beni first and Pedey second, but I think the GDP factor and other base running factors tips my scales to favor Bogey 2nd for 2017. It's a close call, and I'm fine with Pedey 2nd or leading off to start the season, but if Beni is lighting it up, especially with an improved OBP, I think the call should be made. You're right about reaching for new things to talk about. Some of these other issues have been beaten to death several times over.

I respectfully disagree that a player's prior 2 months performance level is the best predictor of what comes next.

Agreed, but I could see Devers in AAA at the end of the season...not MLB. That is, if he doesn't struggle out of the gate like he did in AA.

I, for one, never felt that way, even with Theo., I'm sure Larry had a big influence, and maybe there wasn't total consensus on every move made, but I've always felt like the GM and owner have had the last word.

That certainly helps a lot, even when you swing a miss a few too many times!

He's actually been bad for a while, being negative fore 3 years before dropping further this year. He hustles and pays attention, but he's slow and runs into more outs than others. He hits into a lot of DPs. Even if you grant that he is a decent base runner, surely you have to believe Beni is much better and Bogey is better. I didn't see these numbers first, then form my opinion. It was actually the other way around. I read somewhere that JBj was one of MLB's better runners, even though he didn't have a ;ot of speed, and it made me think of how I felt Pedey used to be that way, but I I had fely he had gotten worse over the years, so I went to fangraphs to confirm or refute my observations. I trust a 4 year sample size of fangraphs' results as being telling.

You need to give it up. You go nonstop criticizing all the negativity on the long term future and assuming those being critical hate the trades, you've been inventing huge crowds of anti-Sale posters that don't exist, and then say, "That is not bashing you or anyone for that matter." I'm very tolerant of other opinions, and I'm fine with your opinion, but when people tell me I'm not happy or can't be happy with the present because I'm concerned about the future, it seems you're trying to force us to be like you or stop expressing our views. It's pretty common for the team that traded away prospects fans to express concern over the long term impact of the trade. It doesn't mean they hate the trade. It's not whining to express the pros and cons. When the point is made that so many people hate the Sale trade, and I ask for names. I wonder why there is no names given. When I point out I have always said I loved the Sale trade and never used the term in a vacuum, there's no admitting your confusion. Instead, you accuse me of stepping into an argument that has been going on for weeks. Again, I have zero regrets trading op prospects for Sale. I wouldn't be complaining about the deal, even if we included Swihart. You keep confusing my disgust with the Pom & Kimbrel trades and their affect on our long term future with my position on the Sale trade. They are separate deals. And by the way, every poster has the right to respond to a post made, even if it wasn't directed at them. You do it yourself often enough.

You did in your previous post.

I am optimistic about last year's picks. I think there are some high ceiling kids that no one is talking about. I'm hopeful on Chatham & Dalbec, maybe Shawaryn. Groome is looking like a good pick, but it's early. I'm not expecting a 12th pick like Groom to be available next year at #24, and even lower picks will be 12 picks lower next year. I'm more hopeful with internationsl picks, but we'll see.

I apologized for call you a clown. That's not the same as saying I agree with you, or that everything you have said is okay.

I'd be fine with Beni 1st and Pedey 2nd, but I think Boegy will have a better OBP than Pedey next year, and he's a better base runner. I also think Pedey will have a higher SLG% than Bogey. I'm not any more worried about Bogey's last two months than Pedey's last few years before 2016. I could see flipping Moreland and Panda (7 & 8) but not ahead of JBJ vs RHPs. I'm becoming a bigger and bigger believer in Panda, I guess- hoping he doesn't burn me.

I found it very enlightening to hear what Theo had to say about his time in Boston, particularly on the mistakes he made as time went by, and then to see how he has applied his learnings to how he constructed the Cubs... with a balanced approach.

You've been bashing me long before today's posts. You've been lumping all of us stating the obvious about our long term outlook looking questionable at best together and confusing who said what. You've acted like a major contingent of this board is anti- Sale trade, when maybe there's one or two somewhat against it within a certain context. You have fanned the flames for weeks. This didn't start today. I apologize for making this personal, but I do think you have been disrespectful more than I, but maybe I'm biased. I know the passions get the better of us sometimes, and I'm sorry for calling you a clown. You seem very knowledgeable but maybe not very tolerant of opposing views. You exaggerate at times, as we all do, and assume that being critical about some aspects of the Sox means we are unhappy or obsessed with negativism. One could say the same of you and others about going on and on bashing Ben. We all pick our own poisons, I guess. Again, I'm sorry for the name-calling.

With Papi retired, does anybody else see the idea of moving Pedey down in the order as a way to lengthen our line-up? Of course, this is assuming Beni can win the lead off slot. Here's my reasoning: 1) Pedey's base running skills are not what they used to be. Only Papi had a worse Sox base running score on fangraphs than Pedey. 2) Bogey seems like the perfect number 2 hitter to me. 3) In small sample sizes Pedey actually has done very well from the 3 slot (.802 in 1226 PAs) and the 4 slot (1.054 in 152 PAs). 4) His 5 slot numbers (.750) aren't much worse than his 1 slot numbers (.770). Assuming Beni is ready to lead off, I like this line-up: 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) Pedey 6) JBJ v R/Young v L 7) Pablo v R/JBJ v L 8) Moreland v R/Pablo or Holt v L 9) Leon-Vaz Your thoughts?

Immediately after the Sale trade DD stated that building the farm back up will be an important task. He knows what he has done and my guess is that he has a plan to deal with the fallout. He could trade Buch for a decent low level prospect- maybe, but what could the plan be other than "I hope we can draft better with later picks than we have in the past."? I do think we can add some more prospect depth through international signings once our ban is lifted, but even that area is more restrictive than years past. He has his work cut out for him, but it's not impossible to find some gems in the later picks and rounds. I'm hoping for the best, as I'm sure we all are, but it's not going to be easy. We are going to have to acquire young talent most likely without the help of comp picks, top 10 draft picks, drafting high salary players down in the draft or splurging on international players whenever we feel like it. I'm sorry, if that comes across as negative or looks like an attempt to rain on our 3 year window parade, but it's not intended to be that way. I'm happy with what DD has done. I'm so happy about the Sale deal, that view the totality of DD's moves as a solid plus. I wouldn't give back a single prospect DD has traded away in all his trades, if it meant we had to give back Sale. I'm hoping for two rings in 3 years, but think one is probably more realistic. I'm fine with that too. Those damn Cubbies look pretty tough though. We better beat their asses at some point.

Nice "perception" created.

I hope the perception I'm creating is that others see me as a person at a circus watching a clown.

I meant DD. Thanks for catching my boo boo. I went back and edited.

I can see how my response looked like I supported the post on the Beckett trade, but it was not intended as such. I give credit to Theo for that deal. I don't think they make it, if Theo was against it.

No, clown! That was Kimmi! I love the trade no matter what. I'm happy with the totality of DD;s trades, unlike Kimmi. I'd take back the Pom trade and probably the Kimbrel trades, but they have nothing to do with the Sale trade. I've never said otherwise. I'm happy as s*** with the team we have. There's no vacuum for me. I never said anything related to a vacuum. I hated the Pom trade. It's people like you who keep making me repeat my position, because you got it wrong, then blame me for posting my opinion 100 times.

Many have been negative about the long term future of the team, but not about the three window. Much of the continued postings are in response to continued responses saying or implying things like this: "The future will take care of itself." "What's the use in worrying about the future?" "Nobody knows for sure how these prospects will do, so trading them is near harmless to the future," "The farm will be rrebuilt in three years.:.

No, unfortunately you don't "got it". You repeatedly mistate my position and link me with others that are critical of DD or the Sale trade. I LOVE the Sale trade. How hard is that to understand?