moonslav59

They look like they might have passed us as AL faves after this.

I guess EE's deal is just $55M/3 with a $25M buyout- making it essentially:' $60M/3 or $80M/4 (team choice) As much as I'd have loved to have had EE, and I expected he's get 4-5 years at $20-22M a year, I can't see how we could ever have gotten below the luxury tax to reset over the next 3 years. Without Moreland, we could have come close this year, but we'd have to find about $3-5M more somewhere. (Remember, replacing $2M with $500K only saves $1.5M) Arb estimates: $4.7M Pom $2.6M Kelly $2M Abad $1.8M Ross $1.7M Holt $1.3M Leon One could probably cobble together a couple trades that could bring us useful $500K players in return for some of the names above and get us below the luxury limit, but how much weaker would we be in those areas. Also, would EE's $20M contract in 2018 and 2019 prevent us from extending one or two of our young stars nearing free agency?

If the Royals are out of it by July, they could look to dump the salaries of these guys on their last years: 3B Moustakas $8.7M OF Lorenzo Cain $11M SP Jason Vargas $8M 1B Eric Hosmer $last arb SP Danny Duffy $last arb The cost might be way too high for a rental, but at least we can afford their contracts. The Yanks might look to dump CC Sabathia ($25M). He'd cost about $8.5M at the deadline. CWS? Todd Frazier (last arb), M Cabrera ($15M), J Shields (only $10M owed by CWS) The Rangers are not likely to be out of it at the deadline, but if they are, they might look to trade Darvish ($11M, A Cashner $10M or Beltre ($18M x 2)

You're right, and usually there's an overpay even for a salary dump type deal. Even deals like the Peavy trade, which was for 1.3 years of control- not 0.3 is still being debated today. I hate to use the Shields deal as an example, because he sucked after his trade to the CWS, but the Padres paid $27M of the $42M owed to him and only got F Tatis and Erik Johnson in return. It's not a good example, because he wasn't a 0.3 year dump, but still, he only cost the CWS about $8M on the luxury tax budget. The gamble on him was similar to the gamble on Buch. Maybe a better comp would be the trade of Scott Feldman by the Astros for Lupe Chavez. Feldman was on his last year at $8M and was doing well for Houston (2.90 ERA in 62 IP at trade time). He ended up sucking for the Jays afterwards though, but I see him as a similar gamble to Buch for any given 1/3 of a season.

ERod pitched 170 innings in 2015, and since he has a high pitch/PA number, my guess is he has pitched to as many batters as someone with 180+ IP has. I don't think he needs to be babied. He turns 24 in early April. He's pitched in professional baseball for 7 seasons and has over 800 IP. I could be wrong, and if Sox management thinks he should be on an innings limit this year, then the idea of starting him in AAA and limiting his innings there would make some sense, but I think there would be ample opportunity to take him out of games early over the year to give him any rest he may need in order to still be fresh by playoff time. As a side note, Pomeranz has been in professional baseball 6 years, has just over 750 IP under his belt and never pitched over 101 innings until 2016 (170.2), and he was injured in the process of reaching 170. Steven Wright has been in professional baseball for 10 years with almost 1300 IP, yet he had never pitched over 148 IP until 2016's 156.2 IP, again a year that included him getting injured along the way to 157 IP. Maybe I'm over simplifying things, but ERod is younger and already has pitched a season with 170 IP- something Wright has never done in 10 seasons and Pom just barely accomplished this year. I think Erod is strong enough to not be on an inning count. I may waatch his pitches per game a little closer than our big three, but no more so than for Pom, who has been a RP'er for much of his career.

I wish we would just trade Abad for a Robby Scott, Josh Penningston or Victor Diaz type. We'd save $2M and keep Hembree for 3 years longer. This doesn't seem to be worth the argument. I jest, of course, we'll find an easy way to keep Hembree, Abad and anyone else we think is worth keeping without having to demote anyone worthy of being on the 25 man roster. Injuries, creative DL scenarios or a two for one type deal are all options before needing to trade Abad for a similar relief pitcher with options.

To me, the Buch dump goes beyond the tax reset. The spending space it created could allow us to acquire a much better player at the deadline. A more reliable SP'er. A 3Bman, if Pablo sucks. A top notch RP'er. We can afford to take on someone elses salary dump, so the return in prospect(s) would be minimal, ans since we'd only be paying 1/3 of the contract, we can even get two guys making $15M annually and be adding only $10M to our budget (.33 x $30M).

I don't disagree that situations like this can and do happen, but with this case, it really boils down to ERod vs Abad or ERod vs Hembree, and this is assuming no injuries and no willingness to create a phantom DL scenario for a RP'er. Again, assuming everyone is healthy and looking decent in ST'ing, is it really worth starting ERod at AAA, so we can keep the $2M Abad? I just don't see it being considered, unless ERod looks shaky in ST'ing, and he's not going to start. Putting ERod in the pen makes little sense, even if he is better than ABad, but I thought this whole argument was assuming everyone was healthy and looking at least decent in ST'ing.

SP1 Sale SP2 Porcello SP3 Price SP4 ERod SP5 Pom SP6/Long Relief Wright Closer Kimbrel RP2 Thornburg RP3 (Smith) Kelly RP4 Ross RP5 Barnes RP6 Hembree or Abad (both out of options) AAA SP7 Elias SP8 Johnson SP9 Owens (SP10 Kelly?) RP8 Scott RP9 Workman RP10 Ysla RP11 Martin RP12 N Ramirez RP13 Olmos (Owens/Johnson/Elias)

I think that's what will happen, although I have a slight preference for Wright as the 5th starter. He'll get his chance to prove he's a better starter, if indeed he is.

That was probably part of it, but I did get the Sporting News and Baseball Digest to satisfy my data obsession.

Maybe we have all been too quick to downplay he return we got for Buch... The Red Sox freed up some salary by dealing Clay Buchholz to the Phillies, but Boston also likes the prospect (Josh Tobias) they got in return, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Tobias, a 10th-round pick for the Phillies in 2015, was one of 10 names targeted by the Sox as they looked through Philadelphia’s system. Red Sox director of pro scouting Gus Quattlebaum describes Tobias as “having potential as a versatile, switch-hitting guy with make-up and a feel to hit. Whenever you can find someone who can hit, that guy is going to standout.“

Yes, he was...and 94 too. Pedro: 14-10 3.51/ 1.151 WHIP 13-19 3.70/ 1.195 17-8 1.90/ 0.932 Sale: 12-4 2.17/ 0.966 13-11 3.41/1.088 17-10 3.34/1.037 Pedro:'95-'97 16.7 WAR 71 ERA- 1.08 WHIP 27% K 8% BB Sale: '14-'16 16.1 WAR 74 ERA- 1.03 WHIP 29% K 5% BB They look pretty close, so I'm not sure why I wasn't quite as high when we got Pedro as I feel right now. We can only hope Sale preforms like Pedro did for us.

Again, I see a big loss putting one of those three in AAA, so the choice is primarily about who is the better two starters, and secondarily about who is best for the pen. Personally, I like ERod best of the 3 as a starter, but I realize it is close, and a case can be made for each one, but I also have ERod listed as 3rd out of the three for the pen, so to me the choice should be beween Pom and Wright for the pen. Pom and Wright have recent pen experience.

I knew Pedro was really good at the time of the trade, but he only had one great season under his belt. There was also talk of him being too small and frail to be a starting pitcher for a very long time. I loved the trade at the time, but didn't think of it (at the time) like this trade for Sale.

I pitched a knuckleball in slow-pitch softball for many years. I seemed to do best when I was pitching into a wind (yes wind blowing out). Lots of Ks- lots of long fly outs- lots of solo HRs, but overall, I did pretty well.

To me, 4 years to 3 tipped the balance to Q, but I'm not complaining. The Sale trade is the type of trade I have dreamed of for 45 years. In hindsight, had we not traded for Kimbrel and traded for Pom, maybe we could have traded for both Sale and Q.

Sarcasm at its very best!

Yes, but I always thought that had to do with no wind. His worst career ERA month was May. Tow of his best 3 were June and July. His 3.29 ERA at TB makes us remember his dome advantage, but he also had... Away ERA: 4.52 8.44 HOU -MinMaid 4.91 HOU- Astrodome 4.54 MN Metrodome 4.65 YOR Skydome 9.54 SEA Kingdome 3.43 SEA Safeco

Unless one believes that JBJ has played over his head, and his stock has "peaked", there's no way I see any reason to trade him

Q has very similar numbers to Sale, but he has... 1 more year of team control no weird delivery that hints at a higher injury probability

Not me. My guess is the guy who wrote that choice into the poll.

Wake seemed to do better when sweat was dripping off his face.

To me, the only real roster issue is concerning Abad and Hembree's lack of options. Since Abad has just one year of team control, and his arb cost is estimated at $2M, trading or cutting him would not be a huge loss. I mean, we traded Pat freakin' Light for him last summer. We can trade for someone like him again, if needed. I can see us trading Abad near the end of ST'ing for a RP'er with options, if a roster crunch materializes. Assuming no injuries at all, which is highly unlikely, so all this roster crunch debate would go down the drain the second one or two pitchers go on the DL, here's how I see it. Smith will not be on the opening day roster, so that prolongs one decision. Locks: Kimbrel & Thornburg Near locks: [Pom or Wright], Ross 2 options, Kelly 1, Barnes 2 That leaves room for one guy out of... (options remaining) In order of skill level, in my opinion: Hembree 0 Abad 0 Scott 3 Elias 1 Workman 2 Martin 3 Johnson 1/Owens 2 N Ramirez 1 Ysla 3 I know it's the time of year with not much to talk about, but is keeping Abad really all that important? I could see a benefit of trading him, and adding $2M to out spending budget as worth more than he is regardless of a "roster crunch". Someone will get hurt. If not, someone can go on the phantom DL. The real roster crunch may come when Smith is ready, but again, someone will be hurt by then.

I totally agree. I know that Pom and Wright had excellent first halves this year, but to me, ERod is the #4 on paper right now.