moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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They are more likely to return to their norm- not do worse than norm. There are certain hitters who rarely hit for their norm for extended periods. They are always up and down, but predicting the moment they turn their trend is near impossible.
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True enough, but I'm hoping we won't be needing top talent... maybe just a de Aza, Ziegler or Leon type that cost us very little. I mention the money, because picking up a so-so player with $5M remaining on his last year of his contract may not cost us top prospects, and we can get two guys like that and still stay under the limit.
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Yes, and that's why a .333 hitter has about a .333 chance of getting a hit after going 0 for 20 and a .250 hitter has about a .250 chance of getting a hit after going 10 for 20.
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I can flip heads or tails 10 times in a row, but I meant a legitimate coin toss that lands on the ground by a non-skilled magician.
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Same as flipping a coin and getting heads 5 times in a row. What's the chance of a heads the next flip? 50%, of course.
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It's not .000 either, and it's probably closer to .333 than .000 (higher than .167). That's why I went to a better question. A player's last 20, 50, 100 or 200 PAs is not the best predictor of what is to come in the near or far future.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
In the simplest sense, high strikeout rate is a good indicator of a good pitcher. This is the false assumption that irks me. There are countless examples of low K pitchers that had long careers of consistent low ERA- and WHIP. Blaming that on the fielders behind these types of pitchers is missing a whole group of top quality pitchers. Any system that ranks Wright;s 2015 season as below average is seriously flawed. BTW, I saw zero evidence that "proves" this system is a better system than others. Wright's score proves it can't be. -
With close to $10M to spend, we could get some top talent at the deadline and still stay under. Only a third of the player's salary would be charged to us.
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If we could trade Abad (saving $2M) and get Holland at a reasonable rate, we'd be taking a risk, but we'd have an upside that could be enormous. I'm not saying I want to do it, but something like this could be worth it, if we'd still leave some wiggle room for the deadline.
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It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used. Alex Speier has us at $179.4M plus $1M for incentives and $4M for mid season depth call-ups to put us around $184M. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html That leaves us $11M in flex spending. That's plenty for the deadline to acquire 2 guys making $30M combined (seasonal), since the prorated cost would be $10M. We reset the tax for next year and then can go over without paying a 50% tax. I think our next self imposed limit will be to stay under the $20M over the limit amount where a separate set of penalties kick in. I think we can do that pretty easily and pay all the key arb raises and maybe acquire one significant FA (or extend a star). If we hadn't signed Moreland, I could see justifying going after JB, but not now.
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True, but resetting this winter is easier than I the next few
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He'll be a FA under the new CBA.
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It's my understanding that no player can be given a QO twice. I wouldn't sign him to even $9M/1
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We should be able to acquire some top talent at the deadline, if needed, and we can still stay below the limit. Resetting the tax this year makes too much sense to give up on. We will be able to extend our stars and or sign stars in a plentiful market next winter and beyond.
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I'm basing my projections on where teams stand right now. I do think the al east will be the best again in 2017 but not like 2016.
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I disagree. What's the odds on this example player's projected next 100 or 1000 PAs? .000 .333 .167 .310? I'd project closer to .333 than anything else, unless the player is old or the original sample size was not large enough, or a long trend was under way before the 0-20 slump.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm still not convinced, and the proof I asked for is just the creator saying it is the best. There is no adjustments made for pitchers with low k rates who consistently get hitters to hit into outs. Again, I respect the attempt to minimize the impact of fielders on a pitcher's success, but by totally removing it from the equation, the low k great pitchers are penalized. They have Wright as below avg while his ERA- was tremendous. That's a metric that also accounts for several factors. -
I think 98 wins is pretty accurate. It would probably have been 103 had Papi not retired.
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Some positions, like RF, get way less action than a position like SS. So, a season sample size for a SS is more telling than just a season from an OF'er.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Please provide the link to the study that proves this to be the best predictive metric out there. I refuse to respect metrics that are biased against low k rate top pitchers. -
Agreed. Maybe this tweak will be enough to keep him out of the games, but not affect his season with the sox.
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Ten bounce back pitchers still on the market: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/10-bounceback-pitcher-candidates-still-available-in-free-agency.html
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I get your concern, but plenty of US players play in the Olympics and risk hurting their team. There ahs been debate about that situation as well, and ERod playing anywhere else except Boston worries me, but I can't fault a guy for being patriotic.
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There are countless pitchers with low K rates that consistently got guys out and had lower ERAs than FIP. They get screwed by the metric. It's a giant hole. Pitchers who get batters out should not be penalized because they lack a high K rate. I get the reasoning behind trying to get the fielders out of the equation, and FIP has a use, but the giant bias needs to be corrected before I pay it much heed.
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If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.
