moonslav59

Maybe we can find a way to sign all five, Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts. That would make me do back flips. I would venture to guess majority of people here would take Xander over signing Bradley Jr if it comes to that. Let's say Price does NOT opt out- that's $30M right there. $30M for Sale $27M for Porcello $30M for Betts $25M for Bogey $23M for JBJ That's $165M for just 6 players! Add Pedey's $13.75M and the player benefit payment, we're up to about $193M with 33 more roster spots to fill and pay for. Let's say 20 of them are at min wage; that's about $12M. Now, we're at $205M with 13 players to pay more than minimum wage. To stay under the $30M over threshold of the luxury limit where serious penalties kick in, we'd have to pay them an average of about $2M each. That's not going to happen, so it's either go way over the limit or let one or two of these guys go (gaining a draft pick or two). Others to consider (last year of control): 2018 Pomeranz Kelly Ross 2019 Thornburg Holt 2020 Wright C Smith Vazquez Leon 2021 ERod Swihart Maybe we can have 25 players making minimum wage (not 20) and have to pay 8 guys more, but I think the $30M over-the-threshold limit is pretty much a "hard cap".

I think Bogey is ahead of JBJ too right now, but since JBJ has one more year of team control, I might flip the two.

He might be behind Beni after this season.

I think our depth is a strength. We have 3 catchers. We have Holt as our supersub. Hernandez and Rutledge are both more than capable utility IF'ers. Young is an excellent 4th OF'er. Moreland and Travis at 1B with HanRam is very deep. If you count pitching, our 6th starter is one of the best in MLB. We have more questions with our set-up men in the pen than the pen depth. We're over-loaded with 6 and 7th slot RP'ers.

I trust my $12M number more. I used Ale Speier's numbers, and he explained why the numbers aren't always exactly the average annual salary. It has to do with contracts that begin very small and get very large. Take Sale's numbers. Cots has him at $6.5M for 2017 (AVV) and that is his average salary, but Spier has him at $6.77M due to how the money was structured. I trust Spier, because I read an article by him that explained how the numbers may be adjusted. Speier had the benefits at $13.5M not $13M as cots has it.

True enough, but Sale and Kimbrel only costs us about $20M on the luxury budget this year.

2016 Sox fielding rankings by position on The Fielding Bible (10 pts for 1st place vote, 9 for second... and 12 voting members): http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally.asp 1B: 1) Rizzo 113 13) HanRam 2 2B: 1) Pedey 114 3B: 1) Arenado 119 (No Sox players got a vote) SS: 1) Simmons 106 (No Sox players got a vote) LF: 1) Marte 119 T14) Holt 2 CF: 1) Pillar 114 4) JBJ 82 RF: 1) Betts 116 C: 1) Posey 120 T20) Leon 3

Yes, I missed that!

Here's a rough look at our future budget issues: After 2017: We lose Young ($6.5M), Moreland ($5.5M) and Abad (~$2M). $14M total. Outlook: Kimbrel & Sale's options will raise his luxury number by about $6M and arb raises could eat all of this amount up. We could possibly get by without adding any costly pieces and using Devers and Travis to replace Young and Moreland. That would be helpful to have the tax rate very low for the following season. The arb raises might make that impossible. After 2018: We lose or have to extend: Sale ($11.5M), Kimbrel ($12M), Pomeranz ($~$7M last arb), Kelly (~$4M last arb), R Ross ($3.5M last arb). (HanRam will probably reach the vested option criteria for 2018.) $38M Total Outlook: Replacing Kelly and Ross might come from within the system, but replacing Sale and Pom will have to probably come from extension(s), free agency or trade. Maybe Groome could replace Pom by 2019, but 2020 is a more likely target date. Arb raises (some final year arbs which are usually big raises) will be costly. Extending Sale will probably be a top priority. I can't see us staying under the luxury limit, but if it is our first or second year over, and we can stay below the $30M over mark, we should be fine. After 2019 is probably too far away to have a true sense of where our finances will be, but Pablo & HanRam will be off the books, and hopefully Devers and Travis will fill their roles well. Replacing or extending Porcello, Bogey & Thornburg will be costly.

I totally agree. I think we could see a monster year from Bogey sometime soon.

I did use the word "regression" to describe his defense. I used the word "decline" to describe his defensive numbers and then continued using that word in my second post. I think you are right. I should have said "regressed" in my second post when talking about him not his numbers.. I agree that his bat should always more than make up for his defense, but here's my history on viewing Bogey's defense: 1) I believed the scouts and early reports that said he would probably be better suited for 3B. 2) I believed he might never even reach average on SS defense, so I wanted him at 3B and Iggy at SS. I felt eventually, he'd adjust to 3B and could become a plus there on defense making him a bigger overall plus than he would become at SS. 3) After his decent fielding 2015 season, I saw hope that he could become a plus defender at SS by 2016 or 2017. I admitted I was wrong with my initial assessment, as were many scouts. 4) I was disappointed by his 2016 season on defense. I expected continued growth, but saw regression instead. Then, I looked at the numbers and metrics and saw my observations and evaluation was supported by the data. 5) Now, we have no better SS option in our system without a massive trade-off in offense. Even if we had one, I'd still give Bogey another year to show 2016 was a blip on his upward curve of defensive improvement since 2013-2014. 6) I have not given up on the idea that Bogey can improve to the point where he is at least an average defender at SS. I think he can even become a plus at some point. 7) He has the "tools" to be a plus. I never suggested his core defensive talents are low.

I have zero interest in RH. Even if we didn't have Moreland, I wouldn't want him.

Sale will probably get $30M starting in 2019. We'll still have Pablo & HanRam on the books that year (final year), so to me, he is the first priority. Kimbrel, Pom and Kelly are FAs after 2018 as well, but thankfully by resetting the luxury tax this year, we can probably afford to go over in 2018 and 2019. The penalty limit is actually more important just going over the threshold, especially if it is just year one or two of going over. My guess is, we may go over the luxury tax threshold by $20-29M in 2019, if we try to keep everybody and extend Bogey before his 2020 free agent season. This is where price's opt out would come in handy in one area, but replacing him would not be easy or cheap. We can dream that Groome can fill that role, or maybe Pom, ERod or Wright can become an solid #2 type, but if we have to go out and get a 1-2 starter via free agency, we will be restricted in filling other areas, unless we choose to blow past the threshold in 2019 and/or 2020.

It's not just defensive metrics that showed a defensive decline by Bogey. His RF/9, Fldg% and chances were all down from 2015. My eye test also showed decline. Bogey got 17 points on the Fielding Bible voting in 2015. He didn't get a single vote as a top 10 defensive SS in 2016. I think his decline was clear. Where he started from is debatable. I don't want to trade for a SS now. I want to see what Pablo can do in 2017. If he sucks, a debate might start about us acquiring a 3B man or a SS, but Bogey is not going to be moved to 3B for years to come, IMO. The Fielding Bible is a good source to me... http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally.asp

We were talking about being able to go about $30M over the luxury tax. I never said the $30M would replace an ace, closer and another need. I said, "it would go a long way in replacing him [Price], a closer and another high need area...", which is not the same thing as saying $30M will fully pay for an ace, closer and more. Price may not be our ace in 2 years, so I never said getting an ace in my original post. I thought I was being clear within the context of the discussion before the statement I responded to, but it would have helped if I mentioned the other $30M added in. You are right. Also, if Price does not have a great 2 seasons before his "opting out", we may not actually need an ace, but more like a 3rd starter type, since Sale and Porcello would be our 1 & 2. Then again, if Price does not do well, he probably won't opt out, because he won't make as much money by doing so.

He was never a very good fielding SS to begin with, so yeah, I'm going there.

I think 4 of the 5 could be, and all 5 could be, if Price opts out (unlikely).

I'm not missing the point, because, as usual, 700 was responding to a position I did not state. The context was within the framework of being able to go over the luxury limit by up to $30M without major penalties, since we will have reset the tax after this year. That "extra" 30M will "go a long way" to helping fill those vacant slots. In total, it would be $60M. By itself, the $30M contract of price cannot replace an ace, a closer and hanRam. I agree with that, but I never said what he implied I said.

I'm worried more about his defensive regression last year. I think his bat will develop just fine.

Thanks. I never saw that before. There are also adjustments needed to the AAV based on signing bonuses and the salary disparity between the lowest year and the average salary. Alex Speier provides the explanation, but I cannot find the link. I used his numbers, which adjust accordingly.

I think Kelly has a good chance at advancing up the RP'er ladder, but he's only under team control through 2019.

Yes, Groome could be just what we need at just the right time. I suppose he could end up being our closer, but I would not think that is a goal right now.

Agreed, and we could see Smith (under control through 2020) or Hembree (through 2021) rise to closer status by then. I don't see much of a chance a current prospect will be ready to assume the closer role by 2019, but stranger things have happened, like Uehara going from our 3rd or 4th closer on the depth chart to the best in MLB within a few short months.

I said "go a long way towards..." not fully replacing. Try reading all my words. It wasn't a long sentence or complex concept. Plus, my statement was in the context of the fact that the $30M would be added to the amount mentioned in an earlier post on how much we can go over the luxury limit without major penalties, which is another $30M due to the fact that we will (should) have reset the luxury tax by then. That's about $60M (not counting the savings from Pablo's departure).

Agreed, but I think the 2017 Sox offense may surprise a lot of Sox fans. Certainly, there is a chance we decline by as much or more than the differential between Moreland and Papi, but I think the chances are we improve at the other 8 slots combined to some extent.