moonslav59

Hmmm. He drops on my list, if he does. MLBTR has him getting $45M/3, so it makes sense he'd get a QO. Close call.

Low level prospects are often valued highly by GMs with long plans. Espi was not the first low level prospect to be traded for something good. I realize Groome is no Espi, I admit, but to claim he has little to no value is a stretch. The 19 year old was still ranked 87th at mid season by BA. Yes, Espi got up to #15 mid season 2016 at age 15 with the Padres.

We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players. We have no clean-up hitter. We have no 1Bman. We have a banged up DH. We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B. We need a RP'er. We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5. I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from. I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up. I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er. Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter.

JD Martinez is a power bat, but without a real home defensively, unless he could play outfield (a real ?). Replacing JBJs 20 HR with 38 and with a higher OPS sounds good for the offense. JD in LF and Beni in CF really hurts our OF defense, but the upgrade in offense would be tremendous. Then, we get something for JBJ (#3 SP'er or 1Bman?)

I don't think we help at 2B. We have Hernandez, Holt, Lin & Marrero. Pedey may come back at some point and make the acquisition a bench warmer. We don't have that kind of money to spend on someone destined to be on the bench. Our top priorities will likely take up all the money. 1. Clean-up power hitter (1B?) 2. 1B or DH (if HRam can play 1B and #1 is not a 1Bman. 3. 4th OF'er 4. RP 5. SP, if possible 6. 2B

The Red Sox have hired Tim Hyers as the team’s new hitting coach.

JD Martinez is not a QO free agent. I don't think Santana is either. The Sox reportedly asked about Darvish last deadline. He's not a QO guy ether.

I'm fine, if we kick the tires hard and lose out. Guys like GS don't come along often.

I never like him, and I used to get the Globe everyday for decades. I don't know about other people's complaints about him. I don't live in New England anymore and haven't since '04.

It's more than that for us... If the signing team paid the luxury tax in the previous season, the team gives up its second-highest and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM of international bonus pool money in the next int’l signing period (which opens on July 2). One reason to trade for Stanton or sign JD who is not a QO free agent.

I never said I felt GS would end up here. I'm fully aware of his right to veto a deal. He may not want to come here, and the fact that we have not reached out to his agent does not concern me. (Wouldn't that be collusion anyways?) My point is, we can afford him. He might want to come here to win a ring. He might prefer LA or SF. We have other options, but I'd at least do my due diligence on GS before moving to someone else.

We got Pom for Espinoza. Long-away prospects have value.

They reset the luxury tax for a reason. It's spending time. The window is closing in 2-3 years.

I stopped reading this fool years ago.

If Ben wasn't in on the HRam and Pablo signings, then he wasn't even the real GM. I do think upper management signed off on the 5 year plan idea, and Ben would have eventually traded several prospects, but you are right. He was supposed to stay competitive during the 4 years. Finishing in last for 3 years outweighed the ring, and it became Ben's fault when HRam & Pablo failed, and Porcello peaked a year too late.

Is this an option? Trade JBJ for prospects and trade prospects for Stanton ($18M luxury tax bump). $14M Cozart (Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B). $7M Shaw

I disagree. While "most teams" can theoretically "afford" Stanton, they will not even kick the tires. His contract would be 20-40% of their payroll. They just won't do it. $25M is not that much for the Sox luxury budget. He's worth more than that. I'm thinking we may spend near $40M this winter as the luxury tax has been reset. We could afford Stanton, Santana and Shaw, if we traded JBJ for a low cost SP'er.

This is where the Sox could gain on other competitors. They can afford his $25M luxury tax cost while other teams look at his actual cost of about $30M x 9 years. We can offer less by taking the whole contract.

Groome has a lot of value, but it depends on the receiving team's timeline plan. If a team is looking to build for a win in 4-6 years, then Groome would be a good choice. I'm not sure what the Marlins' plans are, but they say they want to hold onto Ozuna and Yelich, so maybe they are looking at 2-3 years.

I have no problem letting Devers stay at 3B to see how much he can improve, but we should not expect him to be anywhere near plus by the end of 2018. The learning curve could hurt our chances the next 2 years.

Duda on a 1 year deal gives him incentive to have a big year. If we get JD and let him play 1B when an OF'er is not resting, Duda could probably play 30 games at 1B and 80+ at DH....more if HRam flames out. If there's an OF or 1B njury, Duda plays FT.

If we are over the luxury limit, I'm not sure signing two big names is out of the question. I've mentioned Duda several times. He sucks on D but has great ISO numbers. At $6M/1, he's a great signing compared to Hosmer, Santana or Morrison. I could see us get JD, Duda and Shaw or Moose, Duda and Shaw. We might sign a mid level pitcher, if we don't sign JD and another big named 1B/3Bman (Cobb, Lynn, Holland...).

You make some great points, but to me, there are too many aspects of their signings that point to Moose being the better pick. Assuming MLBTR projections are in the ball park, here's what I see: 1) Moose with 5 yrs vs 6 for Hoze. 2) Moose with $85M vs $132M for Hoze[. 3) Moose at 3B & Devers at 1B is a much better defense than Devers at 3B and Hoze at 1B. I'm still not convinced on the offense, as our biggest need is power (look at the ISO differential) and not necessarily the OBP, which is normally viewed as much more important. I'm not downplaying OBP. I still think it'e more important than SLG%, but our need for a solid clean-up hitter is very significant, and when viewed as who is the better clean-up hitter, the choice is a lot closer. (Personally, I'd take Moose in this role over Hoze.) Also, with players in their prime, like both are, I tend to pay much more attention to the player's last 2-3 seasons and not earlier one. Hosmer has much better numbers 4+ years ago, and I'm hesitant to choose him over Moose due to what both did 4-6+ years ago. The numbers are very close from 2015-2017. One good thing about looking their stats is that they played on the same team, in the same park and basically faced the same pitchers. Stat Moose Hoze WAR 6.6 7.3 wRC+ 118 120 OPS .824 .822 OBP .359 .329 (The above numbers favor Hoze slightly, but our great need for power, might be enough to tip the balance towards Moose) Stat Moose Hoze ISO .221 .169 (a massive .052 differential) SLG .496 .463 (about the same differential as OBP) others... BAbip .273 .330 (Is this differential sustainable?) K% 13.8 17.2 D. R. S. -3 -12 UXR/150 + 5.3 -42.3 (OUCH!!!!) I still see Moose as the overall better choice, even before looking at the money and years. If MLBTR is close with their projected salaries, Moose is my clear choice by a wide margin. I'd still rather get JD or Stanton, despite their longer and more costly deals. We made the bed with the 3-4 year window and we're now down to 2-3 years. We can't change strategies mid stream and end up with worst of both worlds: No rings and a bleak(er) future outlook.

I could be wrong, but I think his contract lowers the return significantly.

Some interesting numbers from 2014-2017: (198 players with 1500 PAs) ISO .301 Stanton (1st) .274 JD Martinez (4th) .242 Lucas Duda (13th) .224 Jose Abreu (24th) .221 Todd Frazier (26th) .220 Jay Bruce (27th) .201 Mike Moustakas (46th) .199 Santana (50th) .196 Morrison (52nd) .187 Moreland (64th) .160 Hosmer (115th) OPS 4. Stanton .939 7. JD Martinez .936 16. J Abreu .883 40. L Duda .818 48. Santana .808 53. Hosmer .799 2015-2017 (232 players with 1000+ PAs) ISO 1. Stanton .316 3. JD Martinez .284 14. L Duda .248 34. Moose .221 59. Morrison .206 65. Santana .200 74. Moreland .197 125. Hosmer .169 OPS 7. JD Martinez .943 9. Stanton .934 44. Moose .824 48. Hosmer .822 52. Santana .813 54. L Duda .812 2016-2017 (155 players 900+ PAs) ISO 1. .309 Stanton 2. .305 JD Martinez (The two biggest power hitters are available)