moonslav59

Some of the deals Theo made up to and including the Nomar trade helped us keep winning beyond that marker I stated. Clearly his moves made after the Nomar trade paled compared to the ones made prior to the trades. He made some great draft picks after the trade, but some of those were as a result of the Nomar trade and players departing to free agency that were acquired before the Nomar trade. For example, we got Ellsbury and Lowrie for OCab's comp picks. (We later got Kopech for Ellsbury leaving.) Plus, I said "wasn't really all that great" not that he was bad or even not good. The team was in some turmoil when he left. He admitted it himself. By the way, team wins per year: 2003-2005: 96 2006-2011: 92 2003-2004: 96.5 2005-2011: 92.2

Theo, himself, admitted he got away from the philosophy he believed in. I was sad to see him go, but after the Nomar Trade, he wasn't really all that great.

Is a batter who hits .050 really 5 times better than one that hit's .010? On the scale of .001 to 1.000 I think the more realistic statement is that .050 is 4% better than .010. He gets a hit 4% more than the other guy over 100 PAs (5 hits to 1). I can see how you get the 5 times better number, but I look at it like this: If player A is 5 times better than player B in the above scenario, is that a good comp to these two hitters? Player C: .200 Player D: .400 Player A is 5 times better than B, but D is only 2 times better than player C! That's a joke. Player A is 4% better than B. Player D is 20% better than player C. That's seems more telling than your way.

I think we're still division favorites without Sale, but I agree, the moves made us much more serious WS contenders.

One good thing we have left over after this wild'n'crazy winter are these 4 bright spots currently not projected to be on our 25 man roster: Swihart Devers Groome Travis Our highest need areas in the next 2-3 years project to be: 3B 1B/DH P C Matches up pretty well.

You said it better than I.

That certainly could have been part of the equation. As it turned out, he only got paid $14.5M more than Moreland, so other factors (including defense) were probably involved. One consideration would be who plays at NL parks? We'd have to sit EE or HanRam.

I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, but I'd say not having a strong farm to infuse the team with low cost role players or secondary level players will force us to fill those roles via free agency, where just average players cost a lot. Those dollars add up to a point where it might restrict how much we can spend on big names. Right now, we have the following talent at near min cost. Will we have a similar set-up 3-7 years from now? Betts ERod Beni Wright Smith Vazquez-Leon-Swihart Barnes Hembree Plus, having recent prospect grads like Bogey + JBJ for just over $8M is something we may not see 2-4 years from now with Betts + ERod or Beni.

Porcello will be at the end of prime when his time is up. Bogey will be near the start of prime when his control years are done.

Bogey will be probably more expensive than his value as compared to Betts due to his agent and position. Just my opinion on this point.

If you're at .240 and you want to get to .280, yes, you'll have to improve on what you are doing by 16.7% (40/240), but you could also say .280 is 14% better than .240 (40/280). However, it is clear that hitting .280 is 4% better than hitting .240 280-.240=.040 (4%) The difference between 28% and 24% is 4%.

If we try to keep all our big stars: $30M Price $13M Pedroia 2020 $30M Sale $25M Porcello $23M Bogey 2021 $30M Betts $22M JBJ That's $173M plus $12M to player benefits. That leaves us at $185M for 7 players. If we paid the other 33 players about $600K, we'd be at about $205M, which will be near the limit. This won't happen as we will have several players nearing the end of their arb years. There's really no way we can keep everyone, unless we go way over the limit, or some of these guys do poorly before their contracts are up. My estimates would go down, but we probably wouldn't want them. It's way early to speculate, but my guess as of now is we let Porcello go and maybe even lose Bogey to free agency. 2021 Price Sale ERod Wright Groome 1) Beni LF 2) Pedey 2B 3) Betts RF 4) JBJ CF 5) Devers 3B 6) Swihart C 7) Travis 1B 8) Dalbec DH 9) SS TBA

This from MLBTR... Blake Swihart's Catching Future By Mark Polishuk | February 4, 2017 at 11:52am CDT Blake Swihart’s eventual role with the Red Sox could be serving a multi-positional threat who can catch 90 games while also contributing at first, third, DH and the outfield, Peter Gammons writes in his latest piece at GammonsDaily.com. Boston moved Swihart to left field last season due to defensive issues behind the plate, though Swihart is intent on carving out a niche for himself as a catcher. Since Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez both have their own question marks, Swihart could still emerge as a catching option for the Sox in 2017. As Gammons and Sox bullpen coach Dana LeVangie both mention, Swihart doesn’t have all that much actual catching experience in his career, and got precious little time as a catcher last year due to the position switch and the ankle injury that shortened his season.

Yeah, Scoot never choked up on the bat. I always wondered why,

He became a catcher in his junior year in college. He was a pitcher before that.

Probab;y about 20 teams would want him, but how many enough to give us a lot for him.

Then what? Sign or trade for a SS?

Hendu had an OBP over .390 in 21 seasons, including 13 straight!

I thought our clubhouse was pretty tight last year. We got outpitched by lesser pitcher (on paper). I'm not so sure it was because their clubhouse atmosphere was better than our. Baseball is a game that is often won by a lesser team. I'm not sure every loss can be attributed to psychological factors.

We really have to hope Devers and or Shaw can step in without a significant loss in production (from HanRam-Pablo). Then, there is Swihart, who could become a force at 1B, DH or even 3B, if catcher does not work out. He could also be a trading chip, if we don't need him at catcher. If Groome can be a solid 4-5 starter by 2020, that could allow us to maybe get by with just bringing back (or replacing in kind) Porcello or Sale. That hope also depends on ERod and Wright stepping into the 3-4 slots adequately. Probably, a more realistic approach would be to hope 2 of the 3 (Devers, Groome & Shaw) come through for us. I guess an added hope could be that we get a pleasant surprise from Dalbec, Hernandez, Ockimey, Chatham, Longhi or someone else, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. We may have to hope Owens or Johnson can replace Pomeranz after 2018 as the 5/6th starter. Travis can replace Moreland after this year or Devers could replace Moreland as Pablo moves to 1B or DH after 2017. We should know enough about Devers and Travis after 2019. Keeping 3B/1B/DH low cost positions would go a long way in our hopes of keeping just about all the guys we want to keep.

I think the biggest reason teams with talent are sunk is the fact that there are multiple other teams with talent out there on any given year. Only one team with talent can win each year. Does clubhouse unity help at times? I think so, but I think luck and fractional better talent makes more of a difference. I do believe that believing you can win makes a difference, and any distraction from that mindset can undermine performance levels, so I do agree it is a factor.

I like Shaw, but I don't think EE is here right now had we traded Shaw away this winter.

Back to square one... again!

I think lack of talent has sunk more teams than lack of clubhouse togetherness or cohesiveness.