moonslav59

Hosmer is the worst choice of all the big contract choices.

..and when the Yanks outbid us, then what?

Yes, saying someone is "the best I've ever seen" is different from saying someone is average or top 10 or bottom 10.

I don't disagree about long deals. They hardly ever work out well. To me, the Stanton deal is different. On the free agent market, he'd be worth $40+M a year. That's $250M/6. The extra 4 years from Stanton are basically for free, if you look at it this way. Again, what bothers me most is what they get in return--not the money or years-- not for someone like Stanton.

His 9th and 10th years are at age 36 and 37. That's not that bad. It's not like the Pujols signing or the Miggy extension. We get 4 years in prime prime. We get 4 years of near prime. We get 2 years of post prime, but not over 37. The $25M luxury tax number is a steal when compared to free agent signings and the QO knocks against the signing team.

Oops

That doesn't sound like you, Dewey. LOL. BTW, it's about "ranking" players not "rating" them. I'm fine with anyone rating a player based on observation or their own chosen data, but when you compare them to other players by ranking them or saying they are "average" or top 10, then I don't see how anyone can realistically do that solely by observation, when they do not see everyone play enough games to form that opinion. Take a guy like Joey Votto. I've only seen him play in 8 games over his whole career. He has a .791 OPS vs us with zero HRs and 1 RBI. Would I be justified in saying he's a below average 1Bman going just by my own personal observations? I guess so, right? No. I'd look at the numbers and see he's one of the best 1Bmen in MLB. Look, this whole thing started over Bogey being called an "good" or "average" defensive SS. My observations would call him below average. I'd guess he's bottom 10 without looking at the data. The data shows he's just below average on UZR/150 and the worst on DRS. I'm not trying to be condescending by saying I think those who label him average or above average based on observations are wrong. For one, my observations are different from there's , so it's not just about data. Plus, the data shows he is not average, if you use both UZR/150 and DRS. The fielding bible also has never ranked Bogey in the top 15. That's based on observations, too.

He can't count. He has JD going for $26M x 6 = $156M. It's $166M.

Haley got selected last year but was returned.

II'm okay with your order, except Hosmer over JD. I'd sign Duda to 1 year or Morrison to 2 years before I'd sign Hosmer to 4-5 years.

I can understand not trusting advanced analytics, even though UZR/150 is based on observations by humans trained to be supposedly unbiased. I cannot accept any comparative analysis based solely on one person's observations, including my own. Unless you watch every play of every MLB game, how can anyone claim Bogey is average or not without using data or some sort? I have no problem with someone saying, "Based on my observations, I think Boget is a decent or good defensive SS, but when you use the words "average" or "above average" you are now comparing him to other MLB shortstops that we only see 3-18 games a year. I don't totally trust UZR/150, and even they say a season's worth of data might not be definitive, but I trust a 2-3 year UZR/150 number over anyone's observations (including my own) when talking comparatively.

Not surprisingly, all 9 QO free agents rejected the offer.

There are 3 slots open on the 40 man roster before any signings. Here are the rule 5 players: Victor Acosta Yoan Aybar Trey Ball Jeremy Barfield Jalen Beeks Danny Bethea Jordan Betts Ty Buttrey Rusney Castillo Harrison Cooney Jake Cosart Enmanuel De Jesus Jhonathan Diaz Willis Figueroa Pat Goetze Daniel Gonzalez Justin Haley Juan Hernandez Bryan Hudson Dedgar Jimenez Raiwinson Lameda Deiner Lopez Isaias Lucena Danny Mars Kyle Martin Algenis Martinez Kevin McAvoy Daniel McGrath Ritzi Mendoza Mike Meyers Mike Miller Samuel Miranda Joseph Monge Jhon Nunez Justin Pacchioli Yankory Pimentel Jordan Procyshen Hildemaro Requena Jeremy Rivera Fernando Rodriguez Jake Romanski Jose Sermo Chandler Shepherd Josh Smith Teddy Stankiewicz Cole Sturgeon Aneury Tavarez Carlos Tovar Marcus Walden Jordan Weems Jantzen Witte I'd add Beeks, Haley & Mars or Tavarez

I observe a guy is great: therefor he must be great.

Nobody loses a 1st round, even if they are over the limit. It may be moved down 10 slots in certain spending situations, but it is not "lost".

With Damon's noodle arm, it was actually a good play. FYI, career UZR/150 Manny -20.2 (-90 DRS) Giancarlo +4.4 (+45 DRS) Baserunning: Manny: -35.0 Giancarlo: -2.7

$25M a year is not that bad. What matters to me is what players go to Miami.

Winters used to be pretty depressing as we used to watch the Yanks sign multiple big named players. Even as late as 2013-2014 the Yanks signed 3 out of the 14 QO free agents, including one of their own in Kurda, The others were Ellsbury, Beltran & McCann.

I agree. JD and Stanton are Plan A and Plan 1A Santana is plan B Moose still looks like Plan C, to me.

We can get Stanton or JD and still keep our OF intact.

Steamer 2018 Projections based on 600 PAs for everyone: 7.9 Trout 5.8 Harper 5.6 Donaldson, Machado & Bryant 5.5 Correa 5.3 Lindor 5.1 Betts & Stanton 5.0 Seager 26. Beltre 3.6 35. Bogaerts 3.4 36. Ozuna 3.4 37. Dozier 3.4 39. JBJ 3.1 43. Pedey 3.0 48. Moustakas 50. Santana 2.9 56. Cozart 2.8 60. Devers 2.7 61. Abreu 2.7 69. Beni 2.6 83. Martinez 2.4 86. Hosmer 2.4 88. Frazier 2.4 114. Nunez 2.1 Pitchers 5.9 Sale, Kershaw 5.5 Kluber 4.9 Carrasco, Syndergaard 4.8 Scherzer 4.6 Strasburg, Severino, Archer 4.5 Quintana, R Ray 4.3 Price 4.1 Paxton, deGrom, J Gray, Greinke 3.9 Pineda 3.8 Darvish, Wood, Nola 40. Pomeranz 3.2 41. ERod 2.9 47. Porcello 2.8 48. Arrieta 2.7 78. Hector Velazquez 2.4, T Chatwood, CC Sabathia 90. A Cobb 2.3 RP 1.7 Kimbrel 1.5 Miller 1.3 Jansen

As much as we have been burned, I'm still thrilled by this time of year.

Quick situation for me, that would never show up in WAR... Runner at third and 1st 1 out, tie game....Batter hits it to SS, but busts his ass to 1st and beats it out, Run Scores, win that game by 1 run. Does that show? Its a Fielders Choice, Outs were made. Yet you won. Doesn't show up in BA, OBP, OPS or many other stats either.

It was 59 HRs. Also, his .360 career OBP and .376 2017 OBP would have led the Sox last year.

I certainly get your point, but I do see one advantage for Stanton over JD besides the fact that he's better: Assuming JD gets $150M/6... Stanton Age 28 $25M Age 29 $25M Age 30 $25M Age 31 $25M JD $25M Age 32 $25M JD $25M Age 33 $25M JD $25M Age 34 $25M JD $25M Age 35 $25M JD $25M Age 36 $25M JD $25M Age 37 $25M Now. technically JD turns 31 in August as Stanton turns 29 next November, so the difference is not as great as my chart shows, but even if you move JD up a notch on the chart, we end up with 2 more years of Stanton in prime in exchange for 2 more after prime. I'm glad there are not QO penalties involved with signing JD, and that might be what tips the balance in his favor over Stanton, but until we know what it would take to get Stanton, I find it hard to compare the two options. There's such a wide range of projected returns out there.