moonslav59

An optimistic view of out rotation would be to hope some of these half season splits can be repeated in 2017 for a full season. Best half splits of 2017 by starters that are now with the Sox: 8-7 2.47 Pomeranz (1st half) 11-2 2.62 Porcello (2nd) 10-5 2.68 Wright (1st) 2-4 3.24 Rodriguez (2nd) 3-7 3.28 C Sale (2nd) 14-3 3.38 C Sale (1st) 8-3 3.58 Price (1st) 11-2 3.66 Porcello (1st) 9-6 4.34 Price (2nd)

I'm sure that's a big reason 2017 projections have Z > S.

For one thing, it's always hard to prove something doesn't exist. Secondly, I think assuming "stat geeks" or "statheads" go into data to prove what they already know is not true for me. I have been turned around on some of my belief because the data shows I was wrong (like Nomar being a plus fielder for one). Another assumption implied by some posters is that statheads never played the game or can't understand the intricacies of psychological or emotional factors involved in the game. I consider myself a person that uses stats a lot. I've been called a stathead and other names. I believe in God, even though his existence can't be proven. I'm not going to try and speak for others, but I think I explained my position very clearly in both difficult and simplistic forms, but often these types of debates get bogged down over semantics: What is "Clutch"? What is "proof" What is a "valid sample size"? Personally, I do not think any baseball player's sample size is large enough to definitively say, so and so "is clutch" or "a choke". There are just not enough moments in a player's career that are truly super important. Maybe, I'm too tight on my definition for clutch, but I've never criticized anyone for having a larger umbrella. That is what I meant, when I said, "There is no clutch"...meaning there is no player that can definitively be called "clutch". Of course there is "clutch" in terms of an event, such as, "Papi sure had a clutch hit in that game!" In that sense, it exists, but not in the way I see some people use it (and "choke"). I know this position is not shared by many, and I'm sure many posters who deny there is such a thing as clutch view it differently than I. The other main reason, I do not feel you can label a player "clutch" or "choke" comes down to the "random" argument that in itself is fraught with misinterpretations and differences in semantics. I'm not the one spouting studies on the nonexistence of "clutch", but I have read that when you take the actual results of players in clutch situations chart and compare them to a random generated results chart, they look almost identical. To me, this does not prove mental toughness has no role in being clutch or just being a better hitter overall and in general, but it does show that it is virtually impossible to prove that Papi is clutch because of some added "under pressure" skill he has that others do not. One could argue that he is just that player shown on the random generated chart that exceeded all others. It's just not something that can ever unequivocally be proven. I admit, saying that this mean "Clutch does not exist" was misleading and open to misinterpretation, but I do believe it is impossible to know with certainty that Papi was clutch. The guy was amazing when not clutch. The guy hit better than just about anyone. It should be expected he'd hit about the same "in the clutch" and he did.... just about the same. The fact that others hit worse and much worse than he did "in the clutch" vs in the "non clutch still does not prove anything beyond a reasonable doubt. I do agree that not being able to prove something does not mean it does not exist, but in this case, I do believe no baseball player can be definitively called "clutch". So in that sense, it does not exist. Did Papi do well "in the clutch"? Hell, yeah! Manny, too. Beckett for a while. You're right though, opposite sides of any argument can dig up some data that supposedly "proves" their position is correct, when we all think opposite positions cannot both be true. I try to avoid that by sticking to the same measures I feel are worthy consistently across the board when evaluating players or arguments. Take the Bogey defense issue. I clearly have a bias for great SS defense. I know that. I was fooled by Nomar's flash plays in the hole. I looked at his numbers and saw something different. I then began to watch Nomar more closely, and how other SSs handled balls hit at about the same speed and in about the same place and saw that most did not need "flash" to make the play routine. My eyes had been tricked. Plus, seeing Nomar for 162 games a year and others for just 3-18 games a year made it tough to be objective. I was down on Bogey's D at the start. I doubted he could ever reach average on defense. His 2015 season showed me I was wrong. He looked pretty close to average that year, and I was tickled pink and glad to be wrong. I was hopeful he'd make it to slightly plus in 2016, but he actually looked worse...maybe even worse than 2013-2014. Now, I'm not so sure. But, you know what? I purposely did not look at Bogey's UZR/150 numbers in 2016, until at least half way into the season. My eyes told me he regressed, and when I looked, the data supported my observations. That does not always happen, and I for one, don't go and try to hunt down other stats to show my initial position was right. I don't mind being wrong.

Because the question does not pertain to me.

Who are the stat deniers? It was tongue and cheek. As was maybe the "stathead" comment.

You didn't answer my question.

Why do stat deniers worry about the motives of stat geeks?

WAR does not, so WAR projections must not as well.

I'd still do it. OF'ers better than Brentz are a dime- a- dozen. Add a low cost pitcher to the 40 man.

Maybe someone dug deep, but couldn't find the answer to what really happened. It must have been something serious. You have to wonder about this kid's attitude, if he just refused to report to duty as stepping stone to making it to the bigs. Maybe he felt he was wronged.

It's 32.4% in MLB. He had 176 Ks in 789 PAs/ 685 ABs on the farm.

A lot of these projections strongly rely on last year's numbers. Also, projections for 2017 might have little to do with long term projections. Zunino is a year older and has 25% more professional experience catching than Swihart. That's reason enough to expect a slightly better 2017 season than Swihart. Yes, scouts can be wrong. They've been more wrong with catchers than probably any other non-pitching position, but I do think most scouts would pick Swi over Zun despite 2017 projections..

One year younger and about 1,000 innings less catching at the professional level. I don't know Zunino's amateur record, but my guess is he had more than 1 or two years catching in HS.

Just curious why they haven't DFA'd him yet. I guess they'll give him one more ST'ing to make a go at it. If an OF'er gets hurt before opening day, I guess he has a chance at a short fill-in role. Maybe, they are just waiting for their next acquisition to cut him loose.

He made it up to #18 as a very young pitcher, so he must have some hope.

Swihart had 6 PAs in 2011 but never caught an inning. Hes' essentially played in 5 professional seasons (2012 to 2016). He only caught in 4 seasons before 2016. His first "real" season saw him catch only 546 innings: his last season only 182. Swihart has 3275 total innings behind the plate (minors + Majors). Zunino broke into professional baseball the same year as Swihart (2012). He has 4,146 innings behind the plate in his 5 professional seasons combined (minors+ majors). That's about 25% more than Swi.

My bad. I meant junior year in HS. He played SS and pitcher beforehand.

Notes from soxprospects.com... Christopher Acosta has reported to the Red Sox Dominican Academy...a former top-20 prospect in the SoxProspects.com rankings, did not pitch last season after being placed on the restricted list in June. It is unclear what the plan will be for Acosta going forward... According to a report last June by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, Acosta got in trouble during extended spring training in Fort Myers and left Florida for the Dominican without permission, resulting in the team placing him on the restricted list—in other words, suspending him. After returning to the Dominican, he did not report to the Dominican Academy as directed, and he missed the rest of the 2016 season. Acosta was one of the top prospects in the 2014 international free agent class, signing with the Red Sox for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic during the same signing period as Anderson Espinoza and, much later, Yoan Moncada. MLB.com ranked him as the top pitcher in that class and sixth-best prospect overall, while Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-overall prospect in the class (and behind Espinoza). Before the Red Sox suspended Acosta, he reached as high as number 18 in the SoxProspects.com rankings...hopefully in Spring Training [he'll show] the once-projectable three-pitch mix that made him look like a potential mid-to-back-rotation starter down the line. However, after a year off, it is unclear what condition he will be in returning to the mound.

Remember, Swihart did not become a catcher until his junior year in college, so his age/growth curve should be given some slack. His injury last year prolonged that curve. Vaz's injury set him back a big notch. Leon has been around a lot, but he hasn't gotten many long looks over recent years. Innings as a catcher (minors + majors): Leon 2012: 509 2013: 819 2014: 360 2015: 490 2016: 839 (~560/season over the last 3 years) The median MLB starting catcher got about 900 innings last season. Vaz 2012: 847 2013: 837 2014: 911 2015: none 2016: 790 Swihart 2012: 546 (first year in professional baseball) 2013: 868 2014: 845 2015: 835 2016: 182 (Injured) and 205 in OF As you can see, other than the injury seasons, Vaz & Swi were catching more innings than Leon since 2012. I think Leon has room for growth, even though he's 2-3 years older than the other two. (Again, I still like Vaz and Swi better in projected future overall value.)

Yeah, without Brentz, there's really not much on the farm, in terms of ML ready OF'ers. I wouldn't be surprised, if we sign another OF'er to a minor league deal. I wonder, if we can get a low level prospect by trading Brentz.

Vaz looked lost all season. Like I said, I think all our 3 catchers have a close to a 50-50 chance of becoming a plus catcher someday. I feel Vaz is already a plus on defense. Leon is probably a plus as well. Swihart needs growth on defense. Swihart looks to have the best hit tool and should be better than the other two right now on offense, if given a chance. Overall, hey are probably all close to average- maybe a little below, but I think all are young enough to expect improvement. Remember, the Catcher OPS in MLB last year was .702. Out of the top 30 catchers by OPS last year, here are some of their OPS numbers: .568 Carlos Perez .583 Derrick Norris .587 Dioner Navarro .629 James McCann .629 Travis d'Arnaud .630 Saltalamacchia .631 Chris Iannetta .684 Jason Castro .684 Miguel Montero .699 F Cervelli .702 Tucker Barnhart You only had to hit .631 to get out of the bottom quintile (5th) last year among starters.

He probably can't be any worse than Brentz, so if we need a roster spot, we can DFA Brentz and still have minor league OF depth not on the 40 man roster until or if needed.

We do need minor league depth, but it doesn't make sense to me either. Maybe because they know he can never win a spot on the 25 man roster. I'm thinking, if someone gets hurt, he might have a chance, so why not invite? Here's what MLBTR said... There’s no invite to Major League camp on Quentin’s deal with the Red Sox, reports WEEI’s Rob Bradford, so it seems he’ll head to minor league camp and open the season in Triple-A. Bradford cites a lack of depth in the team’s current minor league outfield options as well as the fact that Quentin has dropped 40 pounds behind the signing.

I doubt anyone thinks Leon will hit like last year or even close to last year, but he could drop 200 points and Vaz gain 50, and he'd still be ahead of Vaz in OPS. Leon has also pretty much proven he's good on defense. I do still think the odds that Vaz or Swi pass Leon in overall value at some point in time-- maybe not this year, but it's just an opinion not based on anything but gut instinct.

Remember Geaorge Kottarus? There's another miss. Lavarnway another.