moonslav59

I don't think it matters what side of the plate he stands vs lefties. I'm not sure he can ever hit well enough to not platoon. Pablo splits: 2015 vs RHPs: .744 vs LHPs: .465 (.142 as RHB/.590 as LHB) 2014 vs RHPs: .824 vs LHPs: .563 (all as RHB) 2013 vs RHPs: .786 vs LHPs: .686 (all as RHB) 2012 vs RHPs: .809 vs LHPs: .745 2011 vs RHPs: .961 vs LHPs: .723 2010 vs RHPs: .779 vs LHPs: .589 2009 vs RHPs: .914 vs LHPs: 1.028 2008 vs RHPs: .950 vs LHPs: .558 A strong case could be made that Pablo should have always been a platoon player-- same as Carl Crawford. He was excellent in 2009 and respectable in 2012. His 6 other seasons we platoon worthy. He's had an OPS under .590 vs LHPs in half his seasons! He's been under .724 in 6 of his 8 seasons. I'm not sure how getting in "the best shape of his life" is going to help his eye vs lefties. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect and plan for a 3B platoon this year. I think that's why we got Rutledge.

I'm not saying there is no reason for any concerns on JBJ, but the guy is streaky, and we shouldn't always view a player's last few PAs as a roadmap for what is to come. It could have just been a bad slump that happened to occur as the season ended. 2016 was also the first time JBJ played in more than 145 games, and they were all at the ML level. His career OPS is .726, and his 2016 OPS was .835. His his last 28 days OPS was .773. That's not something alarmingly low. It's actually right between his career and 2016 OPS and could be what JBJ will end up near after his career is over. If you take away his last 3 games, he would have ended the season at .850. He had an amazing year following an amazing end to 2015 (August>Septmeber). I'll take his last 8 months of offense any day of the week- bad streaks and all.

This on Holt from MLBTR... While there’s interest across the majors in utilityman Brock Holt, the Red Sox aren’t looking to trade him, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. “Many clubs like him a great deal,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Since debuting in the majors with Pittsburgh in 2012, the versatile Holt has seen action everywhere but catcher and pitcher, though Boston doesn’t have an obvious place to put him this year. Most of Holt’s playing time last season came in left field, where ballyhooed rookie Andrew Benintendi will line up in 2017. Even including 2016, though, the majority of Holt’s big league experience has come at third base, but the Red Sox are banking on a revival at the hot corner from fellow lefty-swinger Pablo Sandoval. Thus, barring another poor showing from Sandoval – which is quite possible, of course – Holt could struggle to find reps. Nevertheless, Holt told Cafardo he’s “extremely happy” to be in Boston. The 2015 All-Star is under Red Sox control through the 2019 season.

Until last year's .765 in 195 PAs at AAA, Travis has been remarkably consistent. He has been between .813 and .845 at every place he's been. If he can hit over .800 at the ML level, he might be replacing Moreland- assuming he is struggling.

Agreed. It's not by chance our two highest non pitching prospects play 1B and 3B.

The Dodgers spent more by far, but many were their own players, so maybe some don't count them.

I think it was a given that either HanRam or Pablo would move to DH once Papi retired. I'm glad HanRam likes the idea. It's not always easy for players to transition to the DH role, but HR has done well in a small sample size at DH. I think him playing 1B vs LHPs (about 23% of starts) works perfectly in keeping him sharp and ready to play 1B in NL parks. Whenever Devers is ML ready (2018?), we could see Pablo move to 1B with HR continuing to play 1B vs LHPs.

I was talking about when we signed him. He hurt the shoulder while playing LF after the signing. Eventually, I saw him taking over at DH.

True. $67M/3 is pretty easy to beat in today's market for high-end starting pitchers. Even, if he gets hurt, he'd probably still get more than that, unless his arm falls off.

I think they might have viewed Pablo as Papi light (pun intended). Maybe they felt he was "clutch", because I hear team management people believe in that type of stuff. I think they took a long view: upgrade offense that year and pitching the next year when so many FA aces were to be available. Pablo and HanRam happened to be two of the best offensive players available that winter at areas they needed, although they forced HR into a position he never played. I think the theory was sound, but the timing and execution fell way short. Maybe they felt Papi would help Pablo get back to his previous level of play and continue blasting away in October. HanRam was at least a legitimate hitter showing some signs of health concerns and up and down years, but no clear decline trend like Pablo. I would have been fine with HanRam at 3B and signing Scherzer or re-signing Lester, but I still thought HR was a mistake too.

God, I remember some on the old board wanted us to sign McAnn. Hijole!

Finally, a light at the end of the financial tunnel of despair. You've actually shed enough to be getting a lot of indirect light from that tunnel's end.

My sentiments exactly!

I agree, but I said it the day we signed him. "He's an obvious platoon player." It was a horrible signing from the start, and I'm not Monday morning QB'ing here. I was dead against the signing before it even happened. (I was also against the HanRam signing, but not by as much. (Note: I had hoped HR would play 3B, until I heard of the Pablo signing.)

CC makes $25M this year and then becomes a FA. Holliday ($13M), Pineda ($7.4M) and Clippard ($6.2M) will also hit free agency next winter. Headley ($13M) will be a FA after 2018.

Getting in shape probably has little to do with his inability to hit lefties well. He should have been platooned since 2013. Last year, we only faced 37 left-handed starters. That's less than 23% of all games. I don't think sitting Pablo about 1 out of 5 games is a disaster. Chances are, he'll PH and then play in some of those games he doesn't start.

Yes, and as bad as Pablo is vs lefties, there's a good chance Rutledge starts 20% of the games at 3B. However, although Holt bats left, he's actually slightly better vs LHPs over his career (but still worse than Rutledge): B. Holt .709 vs LHPs/.704 v RHPs Rutledge .721 v LHPs/.704 v RHP Sandoval .673 v LHPs/ .835 v RHPs Since 2014, Pablo has the worst OPS vs LHPs in MLB at .521. If ever a platoon was in order... .

Leon has not been hurt that much over his career. True, he's been on the bench for a chunk of it, but I just don't see him as being so fat that it's a major concern. https://www.google.com/search?q=sandy+leon&safe=strict&rlz=1C1UDIB_enUS705US705&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=925&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiW0rGYqZfSAhUC3WMKHfgECbYQ_AUIBygC#imgrc=hkGirPd_6Qw7nM:

Last year, the Sox finished 15th in catcher WAR. Sure, Leon went coo-coo for coco puffs, but even if he drops 150 points off his OPS from last year, it's hard to imagine Vaz hitting .585 again. I'm projecting at least a 50 point gain there. That will mitigate some of the expected offensive loss by Leon. The rest could be made up by anyone of our three catchers improving on this from last year: .468 in 113 PAs by Hanigan .500 in 35 PAs by Holaday. That's 148 PAs (almost 1/4th of all catcher PAs) of about .475 OPS offense. We could improve on that by 150-200 points pretty easily. That might come very close to canceling out Leon's expected big drop. Plus, what if Leon's drop is just 75-100 points?\ I see us a middle of the pack again this year with more upside than downside potential, but maybe that's me just being a "homer".

I agree. The thread might be better titled, "What is our biggest concern?" (or weakest link). Even a chain with all strong links might have one weaker than others without it being "weak".

I'm not a big fan of Holt at 3B. I do think Rutledge is slightly better. I think they got Rutledge in case Pablo flops. We'd then have 3 guys to choose from- not 2: Rutledge, Holt and Hernandez. Holt at 3B was part of the reason we signed Pablo. I think Holt's best position is 2B, but I too like Hernandez a lot. I think I'd still give Holt the edge at 2B. I like Hernandez at SS over Holt. Holt should only play SS for as long as it takes to get Hernandez or Marrero up from AAA. I didn't mention the OF, since I do not think there's much to debate. Young should DH vs all LHPs, but if an OF'er goes down, Young would play FT in LF with Holt as his back-up. Maybe Holt could play vs some righties Young has trouble with. Beni hurt> Young in LF. JBJ hurt> Beni to CF & Young in LF Betts hurt> Beni to RF? & Young in LF. (Moreland can also be used in a pinch at a corner OF slot.)

Some bench questions: Who is best for 10-20 day replacement at these positions? 1B: Travis or Holt (assume HR is the DH for argument's sake) 2B: Holt or Hernandez? 3B: Holt or Rutledge (Hernandez)? SS: Hernandez, Holt or Marrero?

Agreed. It might not be hard to outhit Leon, if Sandy reverts to near his "old self". If he pulls even, we could see one traded to allow Swi to come up. Vaz probably would have more trade value at that point (assuming he hits over .650).

.266/.378/.440/.818 in 207 ABs is not all that bad, but it was 200-300 OPS points lower than the year before or at Lowell.

I'm not sure why. He had the 7th best WAR last year and was just 0.1 away from 5th best. One guy ahead of him died (Jose F) and another one, Porcello, is likely to drop some. He has the 4th best WAR over the last 5 years combined, and is still in his early to mid prime years. One guy ahead of him on this list, Price, placed 12th last year and is older. My guess is Sale will finish somewhere between 2nd and 6th in 2017. Maybe they factored in the BAF (Boston Adjustment Factor).